Fast Market = Fast Update

Thu, Oct 27, 2011 - 10:39am

No time for dillydallying today. Things are rolling so let's get right to it.

Let's start with our two base commodities as the PMs are definitely drawing some strength from them. As I type, Dec11 crude is up $2.41 at $92.61. DrC is charging higher again, too.

These two have given a boost to silver which is finally trading back above $34.

Gold is lagging just a bit but the chart suggests that it won't be lagging much longer.

That's all for now. I'll have a more detailed update after the close. TF

1:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As this epic drop in the POSX continues, look for even more downside tomorrow. As noted in the post from later yesterday, once 76 gave way, The Pig looked to fall into the abyss. As you can see on the chart below, 74 looks likely as a short-term bottom.

Dropping to 74 tomorrow or next week would likely be the impetus for gold at 1780 and silver at 37. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Captain Silver
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:31pm

USMint Website down?

Anyone been able to check out those ASEs? The USMint site appears to be swamped.

Oct 27, 2011 - 12:34pm
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:34pm

goodness, gracious, great ballz of fire!

i went out to work in the yard a couple hours ago, and i came back to this! the dullar diving, silver and gold soaring! i like it! i love it! i want some more of it!

Economical Disaster
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:36pm


think would be a nice numismatic collectors' set years on from now.

Its probably the worst investment one can possibly buy. If/WHEN the SHTF, it will be worth the silver content like ALL numismatic coins will be. I say NEVER buy these types of coins. I bought a 1936 DOT QUARTER in 1992 for $650, I just sold it for $650. Had I bought a normal SILVER coin for the going price of SILVER, I would have made 10 times the money.

Eric Original
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:37pm

Crash Season is Over

I tend to view Sept/Oct as Crash Season. October is famous for crashes, while September actually has the worse long term record. Generally, each year will see some period in Sept/Oct when you just don't know where the bottom is, whether stocks or commodities. My take on this weeks action is that Crash Season is Over.

Oct 27, 2011 - 12:38pm

AG Speaks

For all those who have not seen it yet. First majestic interview with Keith Neumeyer. He is saying $60.00 in the next 8-10 months.


Oct 27, 2011 - 12:41pm
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:42pm

Dollar - OMG

Dollar lost the 75 handle and EUR is over 1.42 - hats off to Ivars. But I just can't wrap my head around this if it is open knowledge that the 50% Greek haircut is "voluntary". Doesn't that mean that it means nothing? My head hurts. And a 50% cut IS a default event? Where are the CDS owners? I'm not seeing any news from that crowd.

PS - 25th Anniv. SAE @60 ea? No thanks, I already have an expensive hobby!

Oct 27, 2011 - 12:43pm

Are we in the clear?

Or is this a two day, Thursday Friday fake into the weekend?

Oct 27, 2011 - 12:45pm

hi ho gold n silver

YIPPEE-OOO-KIIII-AYYYY!!!! Mr Falconer!!!!!

Oct 27, 2011 - 12:46pm

12:33p Obama seeks quick

  1. 12:33p

    Obama seeks quick implementation of Europe deals

  2. 12:32p

    Obama: Europe deals lay foundation for crisis end

  3. 12:31p

    Obama welcomes Europe's decisions on banks, Greece

Ha ha ha ha as if Obama had anything to do with this, or cares for that matter. Respectfully Mr. President, your a bumbling fool with out your transcript.

( Easy NSA that was not an insult to the commander in chief that was a fact and you know it )

Oct 27, 2011 - 12:51pm

Right on time

Floor traders off to lunch. Volume down. Hopefully Turkey wasnt on the lunch menu, I would hate to see the tryptophan ruin this momo.


Oct 27, 2011 - 12:52pm
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:52pm

Eric: Crash season truncated

due to massive covert printing and false bank earnings

they do what they have to do

sweet cheeses
Oct 27, 2011 - 12:57pm

Bucky sure smellin' like a$$ today

That is a BIG move for one day. A BIG stinker of a move.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:00pm


Tekhneek. i like your analysis. Roger Wiegand indicated a similar analysis to what you posted early on. We could get back into the mid 40s. Maybe my prediction 42.50 year end will come true.maybe higher. I wonder if they will bang it down again in the mid 40s. That would be to obvious. but who knows. im sure it will get knockd down again. only time will tell. but i too bought silver (options) in the low low 30s. want to make some more fiat back after the big take down in may.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:02pm

This is the front page photo

This is the front page photo on Market watch. Look at the dude, he looks as if he was shoveling coal all night. I can here the media brief now.

" We worked hard for the Euro zone and we got it done " Whew!
( insert heavy breathing voice over )

Any comparison here? Maybe its me

Bond vigilantes are going tits up..Go TBT :)

Economical Disaster
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:05pm

@Crash season truncated

...a couple of weeks from now the crash will continue. SPAIN, FRANCE, PORTUGAL, IRELAND, ITALY the list is endless, will need the printing press. This is all false hype to allow the can to be booted down the road for a few more weeks. Keeps the market up. Its a dull PLOY don't fall for it.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:05pm

I agree Eric


With the EU situation over with for now, the Fed. will have our own version of QE (public or stealthy) rolled out very shortly before any Super 12 gets into any budget or monetary policy issue's.

They need to get this through right now within a week or two (I'm guessing) and then the distraction of those Super 12 talks will replace all the MSM Fed./QE talk.

I'm considering having my dad get back in a bit in some broad based funds for the S&P and/or Russell 2000. Not today, but to plan for Monday. Maybe.

Lots of pension plans are tied into the broad based Russell 2000 (medium/small cap equities). Asset inflation and some pension saving tactics are part of their equation I believe.

Same thing with whatever bonds seemed to react to the EU news and todays bond activity here. Today would seem to be a clear indicator (imo) how things will react even more once our QE takes place. I can't imagine the Fed. not doing something right on the heels of the EU doing what they did. One would seem to re-enforce the other and the Fed. heads have been talking about it like crazy for a month at least.

The POSX plummeting today may look meek compared to what may happen after our own QE or whatever happens going forward.

We shall see.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:11pm

For a fellow Turdite

You know who you are.........Happy Birthday!

Three Stooges Birthday Cake Song
tread_w_care Economical Disaster
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:11pm

@Economical Disaster - thanks

I forgot myself there for a few minutes . . . shew :).

Luckily the site is imploding under the weight so I never got past the shopping cart.

Things happen for a reason . . .

Its probably the worst investment one can possibly buy. If/WHEN the SHTF, it will be worth the silver content like ALL numismatic coins will be. I say NEVER buy these types of coins. I bought a 1936 DOT QUARTER in 1992 for $650, I just sold it for $650. Had I bought a normal SILVER coin for the going price of SILVER, I would have made 10 times the money.
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:12pm

WHY ??

Why aren't silver stocks moving with silver ????? Something maybe amiss !!! I want to be positive but just odd !!!!!

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:12pm

ED this is the beginning

ED this is the beginning stages of a Global reflation. If you ever wondered or Tin foiled over the fact "does the NWO exist" or not, well your seeing the first stage of its coming out right here.

Even though us conspiracy theorists always knew it existed since the Clinton era, but were just conspiracy buffoons.

The biggest challenges going toward is INCOMES need to rise with this flation as well, or yes! THE SHIT WILL HIT THE FAN. Your already hearing noise of this with the current refinance program TPTB are trying to implement. The thing with this program is, it does very little to raise actual incomes, it takes from Peter ( You and me ) and gives to Paul ( the douche bags who got in over their heads ). So unless this is a level playing field where we ALL benefit from it, this will just end up being another epic failure, but it will be good for the math and the books, nothing more.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:14pm

blog updated

with a new POSX chart

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:16pm

Turd POSX ?

Didn't the raid silver and gold when it got to these levels ????

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:20pm

Europe Thoughts from Bix

Bix Weir just sent out an email with comments regarding the "European Deal" - I found his points quite interesting - so will C&P here ..

The new "Deal" coming out of Europe is a lose-lose-lose-lose agreement!

The real problem is not the Greek debt but rather the Greek CDS market which towers over the Greek bonds issued. The bond holders and "system gamers" bought massive amounts of CDS's to cover their exposure but with the "voluntary" 50% payoff nobody knows what to do with the CDS payouts. Here's the latest:
Greek Accord Won't Trigger Credit-Default Swaps, ISDA Rules Say

The ISDA knows that their damned if they do and their damned if they don't trigger the CDS payouts! Now all those banks that said they had no exposure to Greek debt have to admit that they actually WERE NOT hedged properly with CDS's after all.

If the CDS's don't payout let's look at the losers:

- Greece still has to pay 50% on bonds issued and has no future prospects for issuing new debt or coming out of their economic woes.

- Greek bond holders are only going to get 50% return on their "safe government" investments and will have to take an immediate writedown.

- Credit Default Swap holders likely will NOT get paid out because this "mandated" deal is classified as "voluntary"

- Banks that claimed to have hedged their Greece exposure with CDS's now have to declare their true exposure that has already been devalued by 50%

- The CDS market, which was already a shaky part of the Quadrillion dollar derivative complex, has now proven to be an unreliable hedging mechanism

And on and on and on...

This "Stability" that the EU has just provided should only last a matter of DAYS before the world is turned upside down!

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:21pm

QE all over the place

Yep, it will happen to all of those countries also one by one.

And what shill just said will apply because that's all they can do OR it will all unravel completely and TSHTF will happen. They either inflate everything to make incomes proportionate or they reduce the debt loads (somehow) to make the existing income levels more palatable.

Were starting to go deeper into the QE spiral and at some point QE will not be so unique or feared and loathed etc. because it will become normal after awhile. It's already happening and if TPTB could actually just QE with no lip from anybody they would just print, print, print like no tomorrow. We all know this.'s taxi service about to pull away.

Dr G
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:24pm

The raid wasn't in relation

The raid wasn't in relation to the POSX, the POSX merely reflected the raid. The raid was a manipulated event to ruin the safe-haven status of the metals, since the Franc had been devalued.

Who knows when we will be hit again. Could be tomorrow. Could be two months. Small drop, big drop. Dunno. I'm stacking this stuff to the ceiling.

Dr G
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:28pm

Looks like the battle over

Looks like the battle over $1764 will come in electronic trading followed by Sydney and Asia. Should be another great evening to watch the metals action.

I see magnets acting in that area. Pulling gold down to 1740 and pulling gold up to 1780. Which will win?

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:32pm

Gold Rush Premier

Gold Rush Season 2 | Premiering Friday, October 28, 2011 at 9PM e/p*

Love this show !!


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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