Now We're Cookin'

Tue, Oct 25, 2011 - 9:49pm

Wow, I'd say that I posted that previous note just in a nick of time. It's always fun to stick your neck out with a prediction and then have gold go up $50 instead of down $50. OK, so now what?

First of all, there's something I've been meaning to address and tonight seems like the perfect time. There's been a recurring theme in the comments for a few weeks now that "technical analysis is useless in manipulated markets". I must say that I agree but with a significant caveat. Many folks are new here and weren't around when this blog/site began late last year. At the conclusion of our first week, I felt compelled to address the "how and why" of what I do and why it works. Here's a link to the original post:

The point is, technical analysis of the PMs can actually work because the PMs are so heavily manipulated. If you accept that The Evil Empire is going to consistently act to suppress price, then you can begin to predict where and at what price they will intervene. It's not rocket science. It's really quite simple. So simple, even a Turd can do it.

Speaking of rocket science, I'd next like to refer you back to a post from late September. It's quite relevant this evening as it still has lots to tell us. Many of the resistance levels first noticed back then are in play right now and must be watched very closely for clues to the short-term future.

As I type, the Dec11 gold contract stands at $1711.50. This is fantastic! Expect more gains in the next few hours as Asian traders were excited to wake up and find gold with a 17 handle. There will likely be resistance around 1720 as I expect LBMA boys to try to put a lid on things around there. Look for a pullback to 1705-10. The key will then be: What happens next?!? Will the former resistance of 1705 hold as newfound support or will it give way? Impossible to say for sure but here's what I expect:

1) A continued rally to 1720 or so.

2) Gold could just continue on without stopping and new European headlines may cause just that.

3) More likely is the pullback described above to 1705-10 and then a rebound through 1720.

4) From there, gold rallies into the 1780-1840 November target area I described last evening.

5) Only a pullback and drop through 1680 would cause me to "stop out" and rethink this plan.

Silver wants to tag along and I want to get excited about it. But I can't. Not yet. I have a last in the Dec11 silver contract of $33.21. This is great. This is wonderful. But this is only a start. Silver must trade through and close above $33.58 before we can get excited. Until then, it is still rangebound. At the top of the range, yes. But still rangebound. IF it can get through 33.58, the stage is set for a continued rally, back through 36, all the way to 37 and beyond. Maybe even $39. It will be possible to make quite of bit of fiat trading a rally from 34 to 39. Be patient. Don't act in haste. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

OK, that's all for now. Isn't it more fun to deal with greed rather than fear? Let's keep it rolling! TF

10:35 am EDT UPDATE:

And if you missed this yesterday, you should take time to read it now:

More later. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 26, 2011 - 5:51pm

Thank You All...

Your kindness and compassion towards me is a reflection of your kindness and compassion you have within yourself. I equally appreciate all perspectives, as to know where you are coming from helps me know where I am coming from.

Everyone is speaking truth. Look at things for what they are and not what they appear to be... leave your ego at the door.

I am very appreciative of the support. I have a deep feeling of sincerity for all here, no matter if one posts or one just casually reads. If you are on this website, you are trying to learn for yourself. The trick I have found is just to be yourself, and everything else will work itself out, even if it does not seem like it will in the current moment.

I only have answers to my own perspectives within my current awareness. Only together do we have the answers. My perspective is only as knowledgeable as my awareness, which is constantly changing... staying rigid in these times will cause much stress upon yourself. We are all biased to what our ego perceives. It is okay, just be aware of it!

No one opinion is any more right or wrong than any other, it is only a matter of misunderstanding one another, and where the perspective comes from. I know that many will disagree with this, especially at first, which is perfect the way it is. Only through highly developed conscious understanding are human beings separated from animals, let us run with the advantage instead of beat each other over the head to fill our own insecurities. Let it all go.

We are all living to what we know as truth.
Let us all learn to appreciate what one another has to offer.

There is a Ying and a Yang to all aspects of life.


Thanks for all of the messages, I am gathering a lot of information about myself from all the information I read, especially on this great forum. A vital tool in order for my own understanding about patterns, numbers, and ritual-like events.

But please help one another, including yourself. I will be okay for now, there are lots of others out there who are struggling to find out that each and every human being is divine.

We are all apart of something...

This is not just random.

Let us not turn this into a "ScottJ" show, let us turn this into a people's revolution of values.

This is about us, not one individual alone.

I will be around to help expand perspectives and have my perspective expanded by all contributions here. Please do not assume that I know what I am talking about, learn it as truth for yourself.



BobbejaanDr G
Oct 26, 2011 - 5:47pm

@Dr G

You know what's awesome and of value? The relationships I have with people. My wife, my children, good friends.Those are worth their weight in metals. They really are.


PS ... In hindsight & after careful consideration, you can have my lad in exchange for his weight in Gold ... OR Silver ... OR Copper ... OR even a plugged nickel if you catch me in the right mood when he's tanked me off enough.

Oct 26, 2011 - 5:43pm
Oct 26, 2011 - 5:38pm

@Dakota15 ... It's Too Late, Ethel ... Ziggity, Ziggity!

There's a post with a girl wearing only bacon and eggs... aw man, now I have to go back and search for it.

It gets even BETTER than that ... Some posts have entirely NAKED bacon doing The STREAK.

Oct 26, 2011 - 5:31pm


Don't let yourself get too caught up in your momentum or disappointment IF what you're hoping for doesn't come to pass yet, Scott, but here's a couple of melodies in line with your feelings.

Just let it be!
Video unavailable
We all have our time and our purpose.
Video unavailable

As for me personally, I'm more of a "Talk quietly, but carry a big stick" personality rather than a "Meek shall inherit the earth" type ...

"The Times They Are A-changin'" Bob Dylan(Rare) performed by Marco Magnani
Oct 26, 2011 - 5:23pm

Sure BoP, he's on there at 4 est on M/W/F

Not gonna hold my breath on those calls though...

Hey I know you're a long time ZH guy and FoT (friend of Tyler), here's the worldview of his namesake...

"The Time of Great Forgetting"

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Bay of Pigs
Oct 26, 2011 - 5:05pm

Bob Chapman


Thanks for the radio link. He sees $2200 gold by year end and $3000-3200 by Feb 2012. His silver call for then was $60+ and as high as $70-80. Did I hear that correctly?

Wow. Makes me look like a PM "conservative".

Oct 26, 2011 - 5:03pm

Anybody, what's the logic

Anybody, what's the logic behind suggesting a months worth of cash if Greece defaults? I understand the market can tank but why does he think their will be a run on U.S Banks at this point? Same question regarding oil?

I bought a small tub of half sour pickles. I think my gas needs will be met. Not sure of cash.

A lot of Money market funds are tied to European Banks

According to JP Morgan Securities, 60 percent of U.S. prime money market funds’ holdings in French banks

What is boils down too is, your opening yourself up to a lot of " What if's " if you have no cash at home. And besides that, I would hope after the beating a dead horse postings we do on this site as a collective one would have at least grasped the fact that a Bank is for transactions and paying bills, not for keeping your life savings in. Your not getting any interest on your script anyway so why bother.

PM's is your savings grace, paper is for spending.

Get a nice safe and sleep well next to your other safe full of the other metal :)

Oct 26, 2011 - 4:55pm

" I do not know what happened when I left the bar, but I am

seriously in love with (the) donkey..."

I kinda had a similar problem waking up to dogs when I went out to the bars. But I sure wasn't feeling in love coming out of the stupor.

No more drinky for me.

Oct 26, 2011 - 4:51pm

Precious Mettle

I just love the way these say Merry Christmas! Tis' the Season, so stock up now...

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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