Now We're Cookin'

Tue, Oct 25, 2011 - 9:49pm

Wow, I'd say that I posted that previous note just in a nick of time. It's always fun to stick your neck out with a prediction and then have gold go up $50 instead of down $50. OK, so now what?

First of all, there's something I've been meaning to address and tonight seems like the perfect time. There's been a recurring theme in the comments for a few weeks now that "technical analysis is useless in manipulated markets". I must say that I agree but with a significant caveat. Many folks are new here and weren't around when this blog/site began late last year. At the conclusion of our first week, I felt compelled to address the "how and why" of what I do and why it works. Here's a link to the original post:

The point is, technical analysis of the PMs can actually work because the PMs are so heavily manipulated. If you accept that The Evil Empire is going to consistently act to suppress price, then you can begin to predict where and at what price they will intervene. It's not rocket science. It's really quite simple. So simple, even a Turd can do it.

Speaking of rocket science, I'd next like to refer you back to a post from late September. It's quite relevant this evening as it still has lots to tell us. Many of the resistance levels first noticed back then are in play right now and must be watched very closely for clues to the short-term future.

As I type, the Dec11 gold contract stands at $1711.50. This is fantastic! Expect more gains in the next few hours as Asian traders were excited to wake up and find gold with a 17 handle. There will likely be resistance around 1720 as I expect LBMA boys to try to put a lid on things around there. Look for a pullback to 1705-10. The key will then be: What happens next?!? Will the former resistance of 1705 hold as newfound support or will it give way? Impossible to say for sure but here's what I expect:

1) A continued rally to 1720 or so.

2) Gold could just continue on without stopping and new European headlines may cause just that.

3) More likely is the pullback described above to 1705-10 and then a rebound through 1720.

4) From there, gold rallies into the 1780-1840 November target area I described last evening.

5) Only a pullback and drop through 1680 would cause me to "stop out" and rethink this plan.

Silver wants to tag along and I want to get excited about it. But I can't. Not yet. I have a last in the Dec11 silver contract of $33.21. This is great. This is wonderful. But this is only a start. Silver must trade through and close above $33.58 before we can get excited. Until then, it is still rangebound. At the top of the range, yes. But still rangebound. IF it can get through 33.58, the stage is set for a continued rally, back through 36, all the way to 37 and beyond. Maybe even $39. It will be possible to make quite of bit of fiat trading a rally from 34 to 39. Be patient. Don't act in haste. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

OK, that's all for now. Isn't it more fun to deal with greed rather than fear? Let's keep it rolling! TF

10:35 am EDT UPDATE:

And if you missed this yesterday, you should take time to read it now:

More later. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 25, 2011 - 10:10pm

Is this whats cookin?

Do you smell what the rock is cookin'?
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:12pm

Thanks T

Very encouraging signs in todays and yesterdays action.

Miners and PM's up while the S&P was down and the POSX not really being violent.

Something seems disconnected from the usual modus operandi and oil is telling a story. Just not sure what it is at this point.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:15pm

Further Range Binding coming out of the summer Doldrums?

Well Turd, your statement regarding the PM's especially silver being range bound is spot on. As we come out of the summer doldrums and head into the fall and winter months things should get interesting. I'm not sure I share your thoughts on silver moving up towards $38-$40 as it has tended to move up in ranges in years past. A chart from the PM zen master on fall movement from the past couple of years might be interesting (Hint Hint).

My thoughts are that we will see more range binding as silver moves up from its current level. Hence it may move up .50-.60 cents and then trade in that range for a while and then a move up again etc.

I doubt we will see any moonshots through the end of the year unless there is a cataclysmic shock to the world's markets and economies.

Just my .02


Oct 25, 2011 - 10:16pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:18pm

At The Club

Follow Up, Post Silver Summit Debate:

Also, following up on the debating from the last thread, wanted to throw in my two cents.
In Sun Tzu's Art of War, it relays in so many words, that if you let someone get under your
skin; they have control. Most everyone has a temper & think about it, the only
time we get worked up, is if we feel disrespected.

I think, all people want is respect. If we can contribute in our own way, respectfully.. then by all means.
Truth is, no one can prove IVARS wrong and he can't prove any naysayers wrong either; time will tell. He's
even said, he's said that if he's wrong, he'll just learn from it and get better. I read it somewhere on here, today.

If we all have a little humility & give more than we take from the board, we're actively creating a type of online utopia.
Why be part of the riff-raff? And to clarify, to stand up for what you believe in is not riff-raff, it's a defining part of the fabric of this site, and of America. In essence, our independent strength to seek out truth and learn about PM's is
an individual strength, we arrived here, because of our strength to think independently. This is a very non-hierarchal place. With Turd as King, pretty much all he asks is that we be respectful, like we would be in a house.

Freedom of speech & expression are important, for us to have, so as to give 100% on contributions, here & I'm not supporting one person or another. DPH got attacked last week, b/c of posting too many videos or something. Who's to say to stop, when it's too much? This week it's IVARS & separately Flu Shot Immunization . This is a recurring

Below is a paragraph from a book by JP Donleavy, an Irish author, very sarcastic, witty.
He wrote this one book entitled: The Unexpurgated Code: A Complete Manual of Survival & Manners

and lastly, "Is Silver & Gold A Safe Haven?" by Daniela Carbone (Kitco) & Vince Lanci

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:19pm

Remember what Santa said on KWN - November 2010:

With gold getting hit hard today, King World News interviewed legendary trader Jim Sinclair. When asked about the volatility in gold Sinclair stated, “I think from this point forward you are going to see unprecedented volatility. You’ll see $100 swings to $150 swings in a day, and if you go back to 1979 to 1980 we had $150 in one direction. So if we had $150 in one direction back then, what’s to stop this market from doing $300?”

Jim Sinclair continues:

“There is very little understanding of gold anywhere. The primary culprit that is threatening every country and that’s currency induced cost push inflation.

What started all of this was three things. The discussion early on about price controls in China. The discussion in Brazil about currency controls, and then on top of that talk of raising interest rates in China. Then the general commodity market collapsed on itself because everyone is up to their eyeballs in margin debt.

And gold is an item which can get taken advantage of because the primary traders are significant and the market is insignificant in the Comex. So if you’re down on the floor and you are looking to buy 10 and somebody offers you 2,000 and you get hit on the 10, as a floor trader you’re going to sell that out instantaneously. So it feeds on itself and I think from this point forward you are going to see unprecedented volatility.”

Shouldn’t bulls be embracing this volatility rather than fearing it?

“It’s common, it’s required, it’s axiomatically part of a major bull market, and it normally is accompanied by the biggest move on the upside in previous markets.”

Meaning embrace it, don’t be afraid of it?


And buy into the dips?

“Exactly. This is the characteristic of a gold market getting ready to go ballistic.

What about the instability of currencies and bond markets in some regions?

With regards to the so called currency or bond vigilantes in some of these countries, these are really sociopaths who are looking to break countries. They took out stocks in the break and they found out they could make Citicorp go broke. And even if it was broke it doesn’t matter because they got it down under $1. And the problem is there isn’t enough money in securities and if these guys are going to play they play big.

So it doesn’t make a difference if they destroy a currency as long as their unbroken profitability in each trading day is maintained. I mean the greatest enemies you can have can be your friends in a democracy. You don’t need to be attacked by a powerful enemy, your financiers will destroy you.”

They’ll turn on their own countries?

“They’ll turn on their own companies before they are finished. If you’ve been laundering money for the mafia you’ve got to burn down the restaurant. If you laundered money through Enron, you’ve got to break it because if you break it you bury the trail.”

So some of these major houses will go into oblivion?

“When the sharks finish eating each other they’ll self consume. Markets have become battle grounds against countries who don’t even know it is happening.”

For the professional traders Sinclair had this to say:

“My approach is and the truth is Bert’s (Seligman) and Jesse’s (Livermore) was you don’t have to make it all. If you can knock off the middle 50% or 80% of the move, you’ve hit the jackpot. But the guys who want bragging rights buying bottoms and selling tops go broke. And you want to do it when it’s easy, and you want to do it better than anyone else.

If Bert and Jess were around they would have covered today into the weakness, but not gone long yet. The last 72 minutes of trading today was all short covering. That’s what pros do, they sell strength and buy weakness.”

On a day like today you want to hear from a legend like Jim Sinclair. Thank you Jim for making yourself available.


Keep stackin' the phyzz everyone...let the paper traders risk their dry powder on the volatility that's about to come...I'll just keep stackin' phyzz every chance I get until I reach my goal: As much phyzz as my fiat will get me one way or another!!!

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:21pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:23pm

Thanks Turd

Those LBMA blowhards need a wake up call, hopefully by the end of the week. Anyhow, ZH reporting that the BRICs are pulling out and are walking back the idea of floating any liquidity to the EU, and I cant blame them. The rest of the week should be the most exciting in quite some time. I would rather have massive swings then this long drawn out consolidation, its been torture. Good, bad or ugly I am as prepared as possible for this insanity to end once and for all. One can only hope. ;)


Oct 25, 2011 - 10:23pm

I love Bill Murphy

But wow, hell of a combover in that vid. Wow.

Sneed Hearn
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:24pm

Greed vs Fear

Fear can endanger profit; greed can endanger you. Personally, I think fear should still be the dominant emotion. Each to his or her own though.

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