Now We're Cookin'

360
Tue, Oct 25, 2011 - 9:49pm

Wow, I'd say that I posted that previous note just in a nick of time. It's always fun to stick your neck out with a prediction and then have gold go up $50 instead of down $50. OK, so now what?

First of all, there's something I've been meaning to address and tonight seems like the perfect time. There's been a recurring theme in the comments for a few weeks now that "technical analysis is useless in manipulated markets". I must say that I agree but with a significant caveat. Many folks are new here and weren't around when this blog/site began late last year. At the conclusion of our first week, I felt compelled to address the "how and why" of what I do and why it works. Here's a link to the original post:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/turds-crystal-ball.html

The point is, technical analysis of the PMs can actually work because the PMs are so heavily manipulated. If you accept that The Evil Empire is going to consistently act to suppress price, then you can begin to predict where and at what price they will intervene. It's not rocket science. It's really quite simple. So simple, even a Turd can do it.

Speaking of rocket science, I'd next like to refer you back to a post from late September. It's quite relevant this evening as it still has lots to tell us. Many of the resistance levels first noticed back then are in play right now and must be watched very closely for clues to the short-term future.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2522/max-q

As I type, the Dec11 gold contract stands at $1711.50. This is fantastic! Expect more gains in the next few hours as Asian traders were excited to wake up and find gold with a 17 handle. There will likely be resistance around 1720 as I expect LBMA boys to try to put a lid on things around there. Look for a pullback to 1705-10. The key will then be: What happens next?!? Will the former resistance of 1705 hold as newfound support or will it give way? Impossible to say for sure but here's what I expect:

1) A continued rally to 1720 or so.

2) Gold could just continue on without stopping and new European headlines may cause just that.

3) More likely is the pullback described above to 1705-10 and then a rebound through 1720.

4) From there, gold rallies into the 1780-1840 November target area I described last evening.

5) Only a pullback and drop through 1680 would cause me to "stop out" and rethink this plan.

Silver wants to tag along and I want to get excited about it. But I can't. Not yet. I have a last in the Dec11 silver contract of $33.21. This is great. This is wonderful. But this is only a start. Silver must trade through and close above $33.58 before we can get excited. Until then, it is still rangebound. At the top of the range, yes. But still rangebound. IF it can get through 33.58, the stage is set for a continued rally, back through 36, all the way to 37 and beyond. Maybe even $39. It will be possible to make quite of bit of fiat trading a rally from 34 to 39. Be patient. Don't act in haste. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

OK, that's all for now. Isn't it more fun to deal with greed rather than fear? Let's keep it rolling! TF

10:35 am EDT UPDATE:

And if you missed this yesterday, you should take time to read it now:

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/10/waiting-for-lehman.html

More later. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  360 Comments

Planters
Oct 25, 2011 - 9:52pm

first ?

first ?

UncleFester
Oct 25, 2011 - 9:52pm
Slick
Oct 25, 2011 - 9:59pm

Thanks Turd!

I'm cautiously excited just like you

Save_America1st
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:00pm
RuNuts
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:02pm
Shill
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:03pm

90 minutes, dam you Turd how

90 minutes, dam you Turd how dare you live your life, visit your family, chill after a hard days work, eat your dinner... your slipping old man slipping I say.

:p

Thanks for the update sir, it is greatly appreciated.

Now to go read it.

Bstone
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:06pm

Sounds great!!

Thanks for the info Turd,

This movement is a little earlier than I expected but still GREAT non-the less. I could see us getting to 1800 within 2 weeks and from there who knows. I have been calling a November rally in PM's for sometime now and it is looking good now. My prediction is this, we will hit 1760 very soon and hang out 40 for about couple weeks then a strong surge to 1840 through Dec and then January all bets are off, I strongly see Gold getting through 1920 in January and making it's big push through 2000.

I may sound ambitious and a little optimistic but believe everything is still lined up for strong upward movement.

I guess we will see until then I will keep my eyes glued to the BEST DAMN PM SITE ON THE BLOCK.

ewc58
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:07pm
Shill
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:08pm

Nice Turd, thanks again. Gold

Nice Turd, thanks again.

Gold and Bonds join at the hip the DOW and S&P will crater.

This is why I paused as too why Cramer was buying banks?

RuNuts
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:09pm

Silver Feeling Like An Abused Spouse

"I know they're only letting me out of the closet to kick me again."

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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