Now We're Cookin'

Tue, Oct 25, 2011 - 9:49pm

Wow, I'd say that I posted that previous note just in a nick of time. It's always fun to stick your neck out with a prediction and then have gold go up $50 instead of down $50. OK, so now what?

First of all, there's something I've been meaning to address and tonight seems like the perfect time. There's been a recurring theme in the comments for a few weeks now that "technical analysis is useless in manipulated markets". I must say that I agree but with a significant caveat. Many folks are new here and weren't around when this blog/site began late last year. At the conclusion of our first week, I felt compelled to address the "how and why" of what I do and why it works. Here's a link to the original post:

The point is, technical analysis of the PMs can actually work because the PMs are so heavily manipulated. If you accept that The Evil Empire is going to consistently act to suppress price, then you can begin to predict where and at what price they will intervene. It's not rocket science. It's really quite simple. So simple, even a Turd can do it.

Speaking of rocket science, I'd next like to refer you back to a post from late September. It's quite relevant this evening as it still has lots to tell us. Many of the resistance levels first noticed back then are in play right now and must be watched very closely for clues to the short-term future.

As I type, the Dec11 gold contract stands at $1711.50. This is fantastic! Expect more gains in the next few hours as Asian traders were excited to wake up and find gold with a 17 handle. There will likely be resistance around 1720 as I expect LBMA boys to try to put a lid on things around there. Look for a pullback to 1705-10. The key will then be: What happens next?!? Will the former resistance of 1705 hold as newfound support or will it give way? Impossible to say for sure but here's what I expect:

1) A continued rally to 1720 or so.

2) Gold could just continue on without stopping and new European headlines may cause just that.

3) More likely is the pullback described above to 1705-10 and then a rebound through 1720.

4) From there, gold rallies into the 1780-1840 November target area I described last evening.

5) Only a pullback and drop through 1680 would cause me to "stop out" and rethink this plan.

Silver wants to tag along and I want to get excited about it. But I can't. Not yet. I have a last in the Dec11 silver contract of $33.21. This is great. This is wonderful. But this is only a start. Silver must trade through and close above $33.58 before we can get excited. Until then, it is still rangebound. At the top of the range, yes. But still rangebound. IF it can get through 33.58, the stage is set for a continued rally, back through 36, all the way to 37 and beyond. Maybe even $39. It will be possible to make quite of bit of fiat trading a rally from 34 to 39. Be patient. Don't act in haste. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

OK, that's all for now. Isn't it more fun to deal with greed rather than fear? Let's keep it rolling! TF

10:35 am EDT UPDATE:

And if you missed this yesterday, you should take time to read it now:

More later. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 25, 2011 - 9:52pm

first ?

first ?

Oct 25, 2011 - 9:52pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 9:59pm

Thanks Turd!

I'm cautiously excited just like you

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:00pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:02pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:03pm

90 minutes, dam you Turd how

90 minutes, dam you Turd how dare you live your life, visit your family, chill after a hard days work, eat your dinner... your slipping old man slipping I say.


Thanks for the update sir, it is greatly appreciated.

Now to go read it.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:06pm

Sounds great!!

Thanks for the info Turd,

This movement is a little earlier than I expected but still GREAT non-the less. I could see us getting to 1800 within 2 weeks and from there who knows. I have been calling a November rally in PM's for sometime now and it is looking good now. My prediction is this, we will hit 1760 very soon and hang out 40 for about couple weeks then a strong surge to 1840 through Dec and then January all bets are off, I strongly see Gold getting through 1920 in January and making it's big push through 2000.

I may sound ambitious and a little optimistic but believe everything is still lined up for strong upward movement.

I guess we will see until then I will keep my eyes glued to the BEST DAMN PM SITE ON THE BLOCK.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:07pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:08pm

Nice Turd, thanks again. Gold

Nice Turd, thanks again.

Gold and Bonds join at the hip the DOW and S&P will crater.

This is why I paused as too why Cramer was buying banks?

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:09pm

Silver Feeling Like An Abused Spouse

"I know they're only letting me out of the closet to kick me again."

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:10pm

Is this whats cookin?

Do you smell what the rock is cookin'?
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:12pm

Thanks T

Very encouraging signs in todays and yesterdays action.

Miners and PM's up while the S&P was down and the POSX not really being violent.

Something seems disconnected from the usual modus operandi and oil is telling a story. Just not sure what it is at this point.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:15pm

Further Range Binding coming out of the summer Doldrums?

Well Turd, your statement regarding the PM's especially silver being range bound is spot on. As we come out of the summer doldrums and head into the fall and winter months things should get interesting. I'm not sure I share your thoughts on silver moving up towards $38-$40 as it has tended to move up in ranges in years past. A chart from the PM zen master on fall movement from the past couple of years might be interesting (Hint Hint).

My thoughts are that we will see more range binding as silver moves up from its current level. Hence it may move up .50-.60 cents and then trade in that range for a while and then a move up again etc.

I doubt we will see any moonshots through the end of the year unless there is a cataclysmic shock to the world's markets and economies.

Just my .02


Oct 25, 2011 - 10:16pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:18pm

At The Club

Follow Up, Post Silver Summit Debate:

Also, following up on the debating from the last thread, wanted to throw in my two cents.
In Sun Tzu's Art of War, it relays in so many words, that if you let someone get under your
skin; they have control. Most everyone has a temper & think about it, the only
time we get worked up, is if we feel disrespected.

I think, all people want is respect. If we can contribute in our own way, respectfully.. then by all means.
Truth is, no one can prove IVARS wrong and he can't prove any naysayers wrong either; time will tell. He's
even said, he's said that if he's wrong, he'll just learn from it and get better. I read it somewhere on here, today.

If we all have a little humility & give more than we take from the board, we're actively creating a type of online utopia.
Why be part of the riff-raff? And to clarify, to stand up for what you believe in is not riff-raff, it's a defining part of the fabric of this site, and of America. In essence, our independent strength to seek out truth and learn about PM's is
an individual strength, we arrived here, because of our strength to think independently. This is a very non-hierarchal place. With Turd as King, pretty much all he asks is that we be respectful, like we would be in a house.

Freedom of speech & expression are important, for us to have, so as to give 100% on contributions, here & I'm not supporting one person or another. DPH got attacked last week, b/c of posting too many videos or something. Who's to say to stop, when it's too much? This week it's IVARS & separately Flu Shot Immunization . This is a recurring

Below is a paragraph from a book by JP Donleavy, an Irish author, very sarcastic, witty.
He wrote this one book entitled: The Unexpurgated Code: A Complete Manual of Survival & Manners

and lastly, "Is Silver & Gold A Safe Haven?" by Daniela Carbone (Kitco) & Vince Lanci

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:19pm

Remember what Santa said on KWN - November 2010:

With gold getting hit hard today, King World News interviewed legendary trader Jim Sinclair. When asked about the volatility in gold Sinclair stated, “I think from this point forward you are going to see unprecedented volatility. You’ll see $100 swings to $150 swings in a day, and if you go back to 1979 to 1980 we had $150 in one direction. So if we had $150 in one direction back then, what’s to stop this market from doing $300?”

Jim Sinclair continues:

“There is very little understanding of gold anywhere. The primary culprit that is threatening every country and that’s currency induced cost push inflation.

What started all of this was three things. The discussion early on about price controls in China. The discussion in Brazil about currency controls, and then on top of that talk of raising interest rates in China. Then the general commodity market collapsed on itself because everyone is up to their eyeballs in margin debt.

And gold is an item which can get taken advantage of because the primary traders are significant and the market is insignificant in the Comex. So if you’re down on the floor and you are looking to buy 10 and somebody offers you 2,000 and you get hit on the 10, as a floor trader you’re going to sell that out instantaneously. So it feeds on itself and I think from this point forward you are going to see unprecedented volatility.”

Shouldn’t bulls be embracing this volatility rather than fearing it?

“It’s common, it’s required, it’s axiomatically part of a major bull market, and it normally is accompanied by the biggest move on the upside in previous markets.”

Meaning embrace it, don’t be afraid of it?


And buy into the dips?

“Exactly. This is the characteristic of a gold market getting ready to go ballistic.

What about the instability of currencies and bond markets in some regions?

With regards to the so called currency or bond vigilantes in some of these countries, these are really sociopaths who are looking to break countries. They took out stocks in the break and they found out they could make Citicorp go broke. And even if it was broke it doesn’t matter because they got it down under $1. And the problem is there isn’t enough money in securities and if these guys are going to play they play big.

So it doesn’t make a difference if they destroy a currency as long as their unbroken profitability in each trading day is maintained. I mean the greatest enemies you can have can be your friends in a democracy. You don’t need to be attacked by a powerful enemy, your financiers will destroy you.”

They’ll turn on their own countries?

“They’ll turn on their own companies before they are finished. If you’ve been laundering money for the mafia you’ve got to burn down the restaurant. If you laundered money through Enron, you’ve got to break it because if you break it you bury the trail.”

So some of these major houses will go into oblivion?

“When the sharks finish eating each other they’ll self consume. Markets have become battle grounds against countries who don’t even know it is happening.”

For the professional traders Sinclair had this to say:

“My approach is and the truth is Bert’s (Seligman) and Jesse’s (Livermore) was you don’t have to make it all. If you can knock off the middle 50% or 80% of the move, you’ve hit the jackpot. But the guys who want bragging rights buying bottoms and selling tops go broke. And you want to do it when it’s easy, and you want to do it better than anyone else.

If Bert and Jess were around they would have covered today into the weakness, but not gone long yet. The last 72 minutes of trading today was all short covering. That’s what pros do, they sell strength and buy weakness.”

On a day like today you want to hear from a legend like Jim Sinclair. Thank you Jim for making yourself available.


Keep stackin' the phyzz everyone...let the paper traders risk their dry powder on the volatility that's about to come...I'll just keep stackin' phyzz every chance I get until I reach my goal: As much phyzz as my fiat will get me one way or another!!!

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:21pm
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:23pm

Thanks Turd

Those LBMA blowhards need a wake up call, hopefully by the end of the week. Anyhow, ZH reporting that the BRICs are pulling out and are walking back the idea of floating any liquidity to the EU, and I cant blame them. The rest of the week should be the most exciting in quite some time. I would rather have massive swings then this long drawn out consolidation, its been torture. Good, bad or ugly I am as prepared as possible for this insanity to end once and for all. One can only hope. ;)


silvergoldsilver RedRover
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:23pm

I love Bill Murphy

But wow, hell of a combover in that vid. Wow.

Sneed Hearn
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:24pm

Greed vs Fear

Fear can endanger profit; greed can endanger you. Personally, I think fear should still be the dominant emotion. Each to his or her own though.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:25pm

Thought Experiment...

I would like to be thought-provoking for a moment, just for the sake of a sanity check. Disclaimer: I am a permalong who holds more metal in various locations around the world than I ever thought I would in any one lifetime. ;-)

With that said, someone asked me a very interesting question today, and I did not have an answer.

The question was: "If an ounce of gold and a one-dollar bill buried in 1920 were unearthed today, the one-dollar bill would undoubtedly have lost a great deal of purchasing power. However as you (me) claim, the ounce of gold wouldn't have lost value at all, as it is REAL MONEY. If this is indeed true, then how can gold be manipulated and its price suppressed in any way? If this were so, wouldn't the ounce of gold buy LESS than it used to?"

I had no ready answer... and I have also heard of no ready answer either. It's an excellent question.

Comments welcome.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:28pm

Sounds like Chinese QE

Wen: China to Adjust Policy As Needed By Bloomberg News - Oct 25, 2011 12:34 PM ET

The Chinese government will fine-tune economic policy as needed, as the nation tries to fight inflation while protecting against global economic turmoil, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

Officials will make adjustments at a “suitable time and by an appropriate degree” and will maintain “reasonable” growth in money supply, Wen said during a visit to Tianjin, according to a statement published late yesterday on the government’s website. The government will continue to make tackling inflation a top priority, Wen said.

China hasn’t raised interest rates since July, after five increases in less than a year to curb price gains that have exceeded the 2011 target every month. The pause since the last rise is the longest since the increases began.

Wen’s statement “supports our view that China’s government is likely to relax credit controls” toward the end of the year, said Qinwei Wang, China economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, referring to lending restrictions the People’s Bank of China has used to control the pace of borrowing in the past year.

China needs more policies to support small companies and boost the economy to overcome the global economic crisis, Wen said..

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:29pm

Thanks Turd - great post

From previous thread, this may be some reasons for the metals to continue their climb tomorrow.

From previous link, 5 things investors should look for with EU talks:

1. Greece's debts need to be written down by approx. 50%.

2. Recapitalization of banks need to be realistic - captial injections of at least 150 Billion Euro done in a timely fashion.

3. Eurozone fiscal integration with more tax and spend coordination.

4. Ring-fence around Greece to protect other countries' sovereign debts.

5. Recovery blueprint for Europe's economic stagnation.

Number one will be addressed, perhaps number two....certainly not five. So we can expect a possible quick fix, with eventual failure. As I mentioned before I expect there will be a Greek default, followed by unstable market activity, with an eventual Lehman style crash over the next 1 to 6 months. The pm's will then rally sharply.

Turdle GG
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:29pm

Thanks Turd

Great work again. I would not be able to keep up with posting something fresh everyday.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:33pm

I want to edit grammar & it

I want to edit grammar & it won't let me go back and edit.
For this post I can edit, but for the one up above I can't.
Hmmmm. No big deal.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:38pm

tankerfirstofficer - Short answer attempt

Gold is a store of value. It has not lost that value, and should not over the long term. Gold is being priced in the short term in dollars and that dollar pricing is being manipulated in the short term. The dollar has lost it's value in the long term, but short term manipulation should not alter gold's ability to hold value over the long term.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:41pm

Via Zero Hedge/Tyler D...

worthy advice? I don't really know...I'm not a trader, just a humble phyzz stacker and loyal Turdite. But I just thought I'd pass this along in case it was worth it to everyone but who may have missed it on ZH today...

The PM Break Out Is Here: Now What? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/25/2011 15:28 -0400

  • Precious Metals

    Yesterday we published an article calling for a breakout in Precious Metals with a focus on Silver.

    The breakout has occurred and you should be long both metals.

    If you are long, or want to get long here your stop losses will be wide and volatility based. Here are some tips on managing the positions:

    • Silver Stop Loss should be $32.45. You can pick a tighter stop if you like, but this is the proscribed level for pullbacks to go to and the bull move to remain intact. Losses can be managed by adjusting volumes rather than tightening stops.
    • Gold Stop Loss Should be $1680.00. This may seem less risky than silver, but that often means worse reward potential.
    • Tomorrow morning trail stops higher as profits occur, use previous lows, highs on the hourly level or the top Bollinger Band line on the Daily chart previous session.
    • Get ready to take profits aggressively: when these hit, 80% of the projected volatility based move is in the first 72 hours
    • Get out if you are not in the money in 48 hours, even if your stop isn’t triggered. Momentum fades fast if you don’t get follow through from the immediate push.

    Good Luck.

Eric Original
Oct 25, 2011 - 10:41pm

edit button problems

It's my understanding, though I could be wrong, that if anyone below you initiated their own post via the reply button on your post, then it becomes "locked" and can no longer be edited.

The reasoning there is to avoid a situation where people chime in below a post in agreement, then the original poster goes back and edits to change the statement, and then everybody else looks like they just agreed with something stupid, or worse.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:41pm

Australia third-quarter CPI

Australia third-quarter CPI up 0.6%

Australia's consumer price index rose 0.6% in the July-September quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. CPI had risen 0.9% in the April-June quarter. On an annual basis, CPI increased 3.5%, compared to an annual rise of 3.6% in the previous quarter. The gains in third-quarter CPI were mainly due to price increases for electricity, international holiday travel and accommodation and rents, the ABS said. Economists had been expecting a 0.6% rise in CPI in the September quarter, according to figures compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

Oct 25, 2011 - 10:43pm

Technical analysis of the PM's

Turd, The reason I followed you from Zerohedge was your accuracy in predictions. There was no one close to in terms predicting price movements in Silver. For me actions speak louder then words so when actions in the market match your words, I thought this is a person I want to follow.

I think the only problem now is that the manipulators have stopped caring to much about if their actions look like manipulations, so its harder to predict. Anyway thanks for creating this community

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