Now We're Cookin'

360
Tue, Oct 25, 2011 - 9:49pm

Wow, I'd say that I posted that previous note just in a nick of time. It's always fun to stick your neck out with a prediction and then have gold go up $50 instead of down $50. OK, so now what?

First of all, there's something I've been meaning to address and tonight seems like the perfect time. There's been a recurring theme in the comments for a few weeks now that "technical analysis is useless in manipulated markets". I must say that I agree but with a significant caveat. Many folks are new here and weren't around when this blog/site began late last year. At the conclusion of our first week, I felt compelled to address the "how and why" of what I do and why it works. Here's a link to the original post:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/turds-crystal-ball.html

The point is, technical analysis of the PMs can actually work because the PMs are so heavily manipulated. If you accept that The Evil Empire is going to consistently act to suppress price, then you can begin to predict where and at what price they will intervene. It's not rocket science. It's really quite simple. So simple, even a Turd can do it.

Speaking of rocket science, I'd next like to refer you back to a post from late September. It's quite relevant this evening as it still has lots to tell us. Many of the resistance levels first noticed back then are in play right now and must be watched very closely for clues to the short-term future.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2522/max-q

As I type, the Dec11 gold contract stands at $1711.50. This is fantastic! Expect more gains in the next few hours as Asian traders were excited to wake up and find gold with a 17 handle. There will likely be resistance around 1720 as I expect LBMA boys to try to put a lid on things around there. Look for a pullback to 1705-10. The key will then be: What happens next?!? Will the former resistance of 1705 hold as newfound support or will it give way? Impossible to say for sure but here's what I expect:

1) A continued rally to 1720 or so.

2) Gold could just continue on without stopping and new European headlines may cause just that.

3) More likely is the pullback described above to 1705-10 and then a rebound through 1720.

4) From there, gold rallies into the 1780-1840 November target area I described last evening.

5) Only a pullback and drop through 1680 would cause me to "stop out" and rethink this plan.

Silver wants to tag along and I want to get excited about it. But I can't. Not yet. I have a last in the Dec11 silver contract of $33.21. This is great. This is wonderful. But this is only a start. Silver must trade through and close above $33.58 before we can get excited. Until then, it is still rangebound. At the top of the range, yes. But still rangebound. IF it can get through 33.58, the stage is set for a continued rally, back through 36, all the way to 37 and beyond. Maybe even $39. It will be possible to make quite of bit of fiat trading a rally from 34 to 39. Be patient. Don't act in haste. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

OK, that's all for now. Isn't it more fun to deal with greed rather than fear? Let's keep it rolling! TF

10:35 am EDT UPDATE:

And if you missed this yesterday, you should take time to read it now:

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/10/waiting-for-lehman.html

More later. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  360 Comments

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backseatdriver
Oct 26, 2011 - 10:53pm

Turn

You got that right for sure. They should be added to the axis of evil list.

BSD

turnoffthewaterbackseatdriver
Oct 26, 2011 - 10:50pm

Re: BSD @ Lew Rockwells Political Theatre

Lew Rockwells Political Theatre

Washington post = cabal, misinformation news source. I wonder how many we can add to the list?

Thanks BSD

Turn

turnoffthewaterewc58
Oct 26, 2011 - 10:45pm

Re: ecw @ Jeff Nielson's latest: SLV And Silver Manipulation

Jeff Nielson's latest: SLV And Silver Manipulation

“…increasing margins [with] a rising price is actually harder on the shorts unless they have physical silver against those positions.” [emphasis mine]

He further explained that “naked” players must post additional “collateral” each time margins are raised, while those whose position is “backed” by actual metal do not. Thus what Christian is telling us is that JP Morgan uses the silver which it claims to be holding on behalf of the unit-holders of SLV as a “shield” to protect itself from the impact of increases in margin requirements, while “long” traders in that market (who don’t personally have their own bullion vault) feel the full brunt of each and every increase.

So this explains the rush of JPM to create their 2-3 day approval of their own vault earlier this year, in preparation for the Dodd-Frank bill.

So how do we accurately track vault contents of JPM in order to know how many short positions allowed?

Oh I forgot, they are exempt for what was it, 60 days/ a year/ forever? I wouldn't call that collusion, would you?/sarc off. lol

Since JPM is the custodian of SLV, The floor of the vault better stay clean and polished but then again, we can't take pictures due to security reasons. Damn it!

Thanks for posting ewc

Turn

SteveW¤
Oct 26, 2011 - 7:04pm

@DPH Benny Hill

"Benny Hill also. That guy must have been a party animal."

Benny Hill was a reclusive, lonely man. His show always reminded me of the double entendre postcards one could find at Blackpool (a popular, working class, seaside resort near Manchester, England). He was always good for a belly laugh though.

Never forget his take on advertising where he says to "tell her 2p off".

silver foil hat
Oct 26, 2011 - 6:35pm
¤
Oct 26, 2011 - 6:33pm

SLV/SLW chart overlay

Silver Wheaton has invested in mines that aren't yet in production. As these mines start producing, the company's royalties increase. By 2015, it expects to collect 43 million ounces of silver. If we apply the same math as above (even though I expect the price of silver to be much higher by 2015), we get a fair market value of $23 billion… over 110% higher than today's price.

Because Silver Wheaton gets paid in silver, it is highly leveraged to swings in price. So when silver sells off, so does Silver Wheaton…

Investors have never hated silver as much as they do now. But they were pretty close at the lows in late 2008. Silver Wheaton shares are up over 800% since then.

thedailycrux.com

Oct 26, 2011 - 6:27pm

BTW Great economics site

Excellent one hour interviews - search the archives by date - Austrian bent and great guests.

https://www.econtalk.org/

For example:

Nicholas Wapshott, author of Keynes Hayek: The Clash That Defined Modern Economics, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich A. Hayek--their ideas, their disagreements, their friendship and how the two men influenced economists and public policy during their lifetimes and beyond.

https://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/10/wapshott_on_key.html

Oct 26, 2011 - 6:18pm

And while we wait for the metals to do something exciting

Caravan - In The Land Of Grey And Pink

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Oct 26, 2011 - 6:09pm
Dr Durden
Oct 26, 2011 - 6:00pm

Someone take Scott's LSD away

And no more licking toads, brother.

I'm just busting your balls. I think everyone can appreciate the message, but when you deliver it every third post in the blog, people will begin to a) leave cause it's annoying or b) start making fun of you. Like me. :D

Namaste.

And while we're on the topic....

Tool - Parabola (HD 720p)

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