Friday Musings

Fri, Oct 21, 2011 - 9:38am

It's Friday and The Turd is ready for a few days of downtime. First, however, we've got to get through this day.

And it promises to be a wild one. First of all, check this out from ZH. It wasn't too long ago that the USDJPY was supposed to hold 82. Then it was 80. Surely it wouldn't break 78, they said. Now it's broken 76. The Turd is way too undercapitalized mentally to tell you wtf this all means but here's the link anyway:

Also from ZH, a terrific piece regarding gold and the money supply (with lots of pretty charts!). This one is a must read:

Linked in that article is a piece from the Motley Fool. I don't usually read the Motley Fool because I think the place is populated with DeltaBravos. In this case, one of them seems to finally have come to his senses:

Lastly, Eric King's "Deep Throat" has once again checked in from London. I saw this mentioned a few times in the comments of the previous thread so I thought I'd link to it here:,_Middle-East_Shortages.html

I'm continuing to receive emails from around the world with anecdotal evidence of physical shortages, particularly in silver. Keep stacking...if you can find it.

Lastly, here are two updated 4-hour charts. Note that we are rangebound, until further notice. Not that that's a bad thing, mind you. Once the metals break either direction...the move will be clear to see for all paying attention.

Again, if you want to keep discussing the previous thread, please utilize the comments section of that thread. This current post is a precious metals post. Please comment accordingly. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 21, 2011 - 9:41am

US money Supply

up 33% in 4 months. Could this be the catalyst?

Oct 21, 2011 - 9:47am

Should be

Keep up the great work, SGS.

Maybe The Wicked Witch and The Bears should collaborate sometime...

Oct 21, 2011 - 9:48am



Oct 21, 2011 - 9:51am

Bill Gross Was Right: Fed Board Member Tarullo Calls For Restart

Bill Gross Was Right: Fed Board Member Tarullo Calls For Restart Of MBS Monetization
OCTOBER 20, 2011

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/20/2011 18:15 -0400

When we first reported on Bill Gross' massive surge in duration and accelerated purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities a week ago, we said, "That's either what is called betting one's farm on Operation Twist, or, betting one's farm that the next thing to be purchased by the Fed in QE3 or QE4 depending on how one keeps count, will be Mortgage Backed Securities." It was the letter. Confirmation that Bill once again frontran the Fed comes courtesy of Daniel Tarullo who in a speech at Columbia University, talking about the labor market of all things, just said the following: "I believe we should move back up toward the top of the list of options the large-scale purchase of additional mortgage-backed securities (MBS), something the FOMC first did in November 2008 and then in greater amounts beginning in March 2009 in order to provide more support to mortgage lending and housing markets." And there you go: watch as the market rips on the expectation that the US will bail out China all over again. Oh wait, at this point China couldn't care less what happens to the GSEs stack. So unfortunately as can be expected, this is nothing but yet another bailout of US banks, which lately have been buying up MBS like crazy (Gross is not the only one with the hotline), and expecting to flip right back to Brian Sack: after all something has to be done to save the poor things from a total pancaking of the Treasury curve.

.... READ MORE ...

Oct 21, 2011 - 9:52am

Bears and the witch

I am interested. I will contact you. I am planning another Bears Episode 8 release so lets see what we can do together!

Oct 21, 2011 - 9:53am

I used to like investing in the stock market

Just a middle class guy here. Now I do not understand the Rickards states they are more about theater than anything else.

Oct 21, 2011 - 9:53am


Are big funds moving into the Japanese Yen in order to position or rotate to the Yuan on Asian trading hours? I'm guessing that the PBOC are selling USTs in London trading hours, then using the Pound or Euros to rotate to Yen and gold. But, if the Chinese have a gentlemen's agreement with the Euro zone to sell their USTs in the Eurozone, you would see a sell off in USDs and a rise in Yen. If you're in forex and long Yen, conrgrats.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:00am

a dead cat final bouncing???

Well...don't get too excited...but if yu wanna have that sorta feeling...why not? enjoy it yo!!

Alex Costa
Oct 21, 2011 - 10:03am

Bottom or Dead Cat?

We took a dip yesterday in the precious metals. I'm definitely not an expert on these things, but I fear we're in the middle of a small dead cat bounce (no thanks to the manipulators) and that we'll see silver in the 20's again. We could have hit a bottom, but I'd go dead cat.

Either way, it doesn't matter. Please, drive the price down to 10 dollars and ounce. I'd sell my car at that point for the opportunity to get more silver! I already sold my van.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:05am

EXP with MONEX company, newbie Q's

Hello all, I'm a newbie to this game, and I recently opened an account with MONEX company. However, I am concerned that the one mention about this company I have read (since opening an account) on this site was negative. The biggest negative I have encountered in dealing with this company has been the "spread" of $27 for gold, so for every decision I make, the market has to move $27 (in the right direction) for me to make a profit. Is this standard? Is it set by the company? I have generally received good customer service with my representative, though he is essentially a facilitator of trades, I come here for advice/analysis. Is this company the same "don't deal in paper" trap/vulnerability I've read about here? Is the "don't deal in paper" advice equivalent to saying "don't leverage?" With the clear manipulation in the market, I am more and more motivated to begin accumulating metal that I can touch. Hell, I'm even thinking it may get so bad that I might have to depend on a garden for most of my calories sometimes. Regardless of the survivalist measures that may need to be taken, can anyone tell me if they have experience with this company, or comparable companies?

I am very grateful for this community; its honest answers and honest inquiry.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:07am

Turd & SGS

Have a great weekend guys! Nice to see SGS drop a quick line here. He's a straight shooter. Hope you guys can get together on that video.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:14am

A Turd and SGS video 

A Turd and SGS video Nice!

Bring on the F bombs :)

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:15am

Turd: On the KWN news story,


On the KWN news story, do you (or anyone else) know anything about this three month delay on a 15 million oz order, where much of the order was refined after it was placed?

This is important to me, because it confirms one of my main theses regarding silver investment. I would like to have some documented evidence rather than secondhand gossip from an anonymous source.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:17am

Possible Head and Shoulders in the DXY Chart

There looks to be a clear head and shoulders patten forming in the 8hr Dollar index chart... A break below 76 would just about insure it... That in turn should open the flood gates on the PM's.

Not sure how to post an image from my computer, but once I do... Ill post the chart!

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:21am


I'm sure he is talking about Sprott and PSLV.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:25am


Why do some states charge sales tax on the purchase of gold? sorry, it's a little off topic, but I don't understand that. You charge tax on money?

tmosley kenklave
Oct 21, 2011 - 10:30am

@kenklave:  Do you happen to

@kenklave: Do you happen to have a link where that is being talked about?

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:38am

Nice Ag update Turd, Thanks

As Big Hat wants us to post about Silver and thinks it's a good idea to keep stackin', I repost this from yesterday. These are nice rounds, limited edition. Get a few tubes as they'll rise in value beyond standard Maples and ASE's... The first one in this series, the Timberwolf has already done this. I'd give you a price, but not surprisingly, Apmex doesn't have any in stock.

Coupon sale going on now at MPM to boot...

NOW AVAILABLE! 2012 Canadian Silver Cougar Coins! The 2012 installment in the Royal Canadian Mint's Wildlife Series can now be found in the 1 ounce Silver Maple Leaf category on our site. Supplies are limited, so get them while they last! COUPON SALE! $4.00 off your purchase of $200.00 or more with coupon code: October4

$14.00 off your purchase of $750.00 or more with coupon code: October14

$44.00 off your purchase of $2,500.00 or more with coupon code: October44

Enter code during checkout for instant savings. Only one coupon may be used per order. If multiple orders are combined into a single shipment with a single shipping charge, only one coupon may be applied towards that transaction. Coupons will not be applied towards orders placed prior to 12 noon (Pacific time) on Thursday, October 20th.

Coupon codes expire at 5pm (Pacific time) on Monday, October 31st.
Oct 21, 2011 - 10:41am

this seems pretty relevant

It's Baaack: FT Deutschland Pronounces Deutsche Mark's Return, Prices Itself At 4.11 DM

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/21/2011 - 09:21

Curious what the talking heads will be discussing all weekend parallel to the joke that is the European Summit #1, not to be confused with summit #666? Here is the answer, courtesy of the FT Deutschland, where not too subtly, right next to a lede saying "the Euro rescue has turned into a farce", the publication has for the first time, set its price not in zEURo.qq but in Paul Tudor Jones' favorite currency: the Deutsche Mark, or 4.11 DM to be precise. And courtesy of the FTD, we now know the When Issued exchange rate for the EURDEM is: 1.95, the same as was locked at the EUR inception. Said otherwise, stick a fork in the euro, it's done.

Ferd Torgerson GoldMania3000
Oct 21, 2011 - 10:43am

@ Peace Silver

Can't speak for other states but in Texas sales tax only applies to purchases of gold and silver coins under $1000. I always make sure my purchases exceed $1000 for sales tax purposes and meet the minimum required for a cash or wire transfer purchase ($2000 for Provident Metals) since you get a discount for cash or wire transfer payments.

As to why the break point of $1000? Not sure. My guess is that the breakpoint is set to distinguish between one who wants to buy one coin (perhaps as a gift) versus one who is making a serious investment in precious metals. I do know for example that if one goes into Macy's and buys a gold chain for one's spouse, sales tax applies and I don't believe it is waived if the cost exceeds $1000.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:45am

Silver shortage?

There's plenty of Silver available in California.

There are also plenty of Silver pumping stories on the presses. Supposedly there have been silver shortages everywhere for months now.

Before long I expect that we will hear of the Pentagon having large underground caches of Silver in secret storage bins deep in the 5th level basement next to their 24/7 Porn theatre.

If people want to know about 'silver shortages' just watch the premium and forget the noise. There is more noise on Wall Street and in the metals than the inside of a jet engine on full throttle.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:46am
Oct 21, 2011 - 10:50am

exp w/ MONEX

I've purchased buffaloes and junk bags from Monex in the distant past- long waits for delivery every time. On top of that they call you up randomly. I now deal with APMEX. Pay by check- $10 shipping, never a hassle, never call unless you leave a message asking them to. Pailin has more exotic suggestions.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:51am

more WHY

WHY... is there a capital gains tax on bullion? Trading a 1 oz silver American Eagle for $38 -or-thereabouts in FRNs is like trading a $100 USD bill for 5-$20s at the bank -- isn't it??

(Been lurking for awhile -- love this 'kinder-gentler' site even more than my previous favorite--ZeroHedge!)

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:55am


Try this: (note the word "unavailable")

And this from the Perth Mint blog:


    To Bullion Blog

    I would like to know if the Mint has any schedule for production of Silver bars?

    Many thanks and regards
  • October 19 2011


    Hi Marcelo

    Demand is so strong we are selling everything we can make at this time.


    Ron Currie
    Sales & Marketing Director

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:55am


I absolutely agree - taxing money! But here in Canada basically any transaction is taxed - if you pull out your wallet, the gov't wants a cut.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:58am

Re/income Tax and Monex

I sent a PM to you re/monex - sounds like a bad deal. Not ascribing any motives, just feel it is a bad deal when you can do much better using mini futures, options, and ETFs which are all well know, traded instruments with low premiums.

Could not agree more on repealing all income tax. The sales tax would then make sense and be highly visible.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:59am

@NoSuckerNoBlood - Re: MONEX

I have an account at Monex that I use for trading and have had it for several years. I've also purchased physical from them although they are not the only trading vehicle that I use and I don't buy my physical from them anymore. Rather than clutter up Turd's space with our dialog, you can e-mail me at silverisking[at]aol[dot]com and I'll e-mail you back with my opinion based on my experience with them.

Oct 21, 2011 - 10:59am
silvermotor NoSuckerNoBloodsucker
Oct 21, 2011 - 11:01am

Stacking physical Ag and Au is the best way to go.


I personally stay away from paper metals, I've been stacking

since "06, for low premium on Ag and Au, the best place I have found:



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