Chart Review

Thu, Oct 20, 2011 - 9:58am

We haven't had a chance to discuss the longer-term charts for a while.

Before you look at these charts, it's probably best to remind you of our year-end goals. Keep in mind that, since 2001, gold has had an average gain of about 25%/year. Consequently, my goal for 2011 has always been $1750. Yes, all the excitement of August led me to think that $1750 was a bit on the low side but now, with the benefit of hindsight, it still looks like the right number. Are you wondering about 2012? Take $1750 and add 25%. As for silver, I would not be surprised to see it end up about flat on the year. This would mean a 12/31 close of somewhere between 29 and 32. Silver is a little harder to pin down as its pattern isn't as long and consistent as gold's. Either way, I expect a BIG 2012 for silver so a relatively flat 2011 in preparation would make some sense.

OK, first up is gold. Note that, on the daily chart, you can see plenty of strong support between 1580 and 1600. However, you should also take a long look at the weekly chart. Corrections seem to come about every six months and they almost always dip down to touch the lower end of the channel. So, do not be surprised if gold teeters a bit at 1580 and then gets a square shove from The Bernank down toward 1500.

The daily chart of silver shows pretty stout support below $30. That may continue to be a bottom. However, like gold, do not be surprised if silver gets pressed down all the way to the blue line on the weekly chart. This could drop silver as low as 24 or 25. Having price drop that far would present an extraordinarily compelling buying opportunity and it won't stay there very long, I can assure you of that.

I've gotten a few inquiries regarding copper so here are charts of it, too. Further weakness in copper may provide the catalyst for the PMs to move lower so ole DrC must be watched closely.

Lots of crazy stuff going on again today so my advice to you is to sit back, relax and enjoy the theater. Oh, and keep stacking, too. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 20, 2011 - 10:44am

PMs and industrials

I agree with the Turds charts, but we can be surprised again. The PMs can be punished with the panic option, what with all the positive news coming out of Europe.

I'm still a buyer, but I'm in no hurry. My silver orders are taking longer to get filled. So lower prices on the precious, may just choke out availability.

Is there any indications that copper is telegraphing the price movement of platinum and paladium?

Oh and the consumer spending rise is just me buying more survival foods.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:44am

The site appeared to be down

The site appeared to be down and when it came up again there was a new post from Turd.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:45am

Virus Warning

Google Chrome states site contains material from a site that contains a virus. ???

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:46am

It was the Bernank....

Just testing his new blog override button.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:46am

silver buying opportunity coming?

Turd F said,

"do not be surprised if silver gets pressed down all the way to the blue line on the weekly chart. This could drop silver as low as 24 or 25. Having price drop that far would present an extraordinarily compelling buying opportunity and it won't stay there very long, I can assure you of that."

I would not be surprised to see silver spike down to that area. What would surprise me would be if anyone would be awake to take advantage of it. I believe that a big dip could unleash a frenzy of buying. I don't think they would want to see the major PM dealers posting SILVER SOLD OUT signs.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:47am

British Humor (Re Quantitative Easing)

Clarke and Dawe - Quantitative Easing
Two Gun Tobin
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:49am

Big Yellow Hat and Pumpkin

While waiting for the metals to decide which way they're going, i've been harvesting in the garden. The Big Yellow Hat grows a mean pumpkin!

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:52am

Occupy Washington DC

Jesus threw the money lenders out of the temple because they were operating their craft in his Fathers house. If OWS was really serious they would be occupying Washington and throw the money changers out of the peoples house.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:56am

Phoenix Capital Research... re: financial collapse

I know some people make fun of him, I treat him as another data point and overall, I've made money following him (not always exactly, but it gives me good things to consider... just like this site).

He just released a paper yesterday about the coming "Great Debt Implosion" as it applies to Europe, the US and the world in general and it was pretty good stuff. Nothing new for anyone here, but laid it out really well if you're looking for "mental reinforcement/fortitude" on what most of us think is coming.

I have ZERO basis for what I'm about to say other than just pure gut feeling, but I'm going to say it anyway because I'm guessing that there are a few people other than me that have anxiety right now.

We've all talked about "huge/massive volatility" but I don't think we know what that means yet. We think we do, we talk about it, but it's like combat, until you've been on the "two way range," you don't get it, period. At the same time, we all have stars in our eyes about where we think gold and silver will go price wise. However, I think EVERYONE should plan on a big deflationary push before the inflationary rocket takes it all higher and when we do get that deflationary push, probably in starting in 2012, it's probably going to make most people, even here, shit their pants and vomit at the same time. That said, this is what I'm personally mentally preparing for so that I don't shit the bed if it happens and get shaken out of some of my physical (and I'm 50% NET WORTH in physical... I consider that a HUGE bet on the future) and a quote the other day here helps... the quote was along the lines of "just like a real bull ride, the bull tries to shake the rider(s) and only a few hang on until the end." That said, here is what I am prepared to see sometime in the next 12-24 months and this is COMPLETELY unscientific! ;)

In 2008, the financial collapse pushed silver down roughly 50% to $10ish and it then went to nearly $50 two years later.

If what's coming pushes it down 50% from when I started thinking this way, it would be pushed to about $19, but I think after that, it will probably go up more than 5X next time, but even at 5x, that's $100/oz.

I'm not saying that Ivar's charts are right or wrong, but his trend is probably about right, who knows what the timeline will be.

Bottom line though, I agree with Graham Summers that is DOES NOT MATTER what the EU does on Sunday, Greece WILL default next year and not only that, the entire European banking sector will likely go down sometime next year as well... it will be their 2008 and the EU's GDP is larger than ours and so are their debt ratios. There will be a run to the USD first and yes, that will push EVERYTHING down HARD for awhile.

Anyway, I think everyone should mentally prepare for silver at or below $25 at some point so that you are "ready" for it and expect it. If it doesn't happen, it's all gravy.

Just my two bits.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:57am

Bear channel developing?

Even though I'm bullish long term, Am I the only one seeing a bear channel developing in the brink of giving up with a potential $1470 ish target?

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Dec 13, 2019 - 10:14pm
by NW VIEW, Dec 13, 2019 - 8:54pm
by Trail Trekker, Dec 13, 2019 - 1:39pm
by NW VIEW, Dec 13, 2019 - 12:29am
by Trail Trekker, Dec 12, 2019 - 11:05pm
by NW VIEW, Dec 12, 2019 - 10:03pm