Chart Review

Thu, Oct 20, 2011 - 9:58am

We haven't had a chance to discuss the longer-term charts for a while.

Before you look at these charts, it's probably best to remind you of our year-end goals. Keep in mind that, since 2001, gold has had an average gain of about 25%/year. Consequently, my goal for 2011 has always been $1750. Yes, all the excitement of August led me to think that $1750 was a bit on the low side but now, with the benefit of hindsight, it still looks like the right number. Are you wondering about 2012? Take $1750 and add 25%. As for silver, I would not be surprised to see it end up about flat on the year. This would mean a 12/31 close of somewhere between 29 and 32. Silver is a little harder to pin down as its pattern isn't as long and consistent as gold's. Either way, I expect a BIG 2012 for silver so a relatively flat 2011 in preparation would make some sense.

OK, first up is gold. Note that, on the daily chart, you can see plenty of strong support between 1580 and 1600. However, you should also take a long look at the weekly chart. Corrections seem to come about every six months and they almost always dip down to touch the lower end of the channel. So, do not be surprised if gold teeters a bit at 1580 and then gets a square shove from The Bernank down toward 1500.

The daily chart of silver shows pretty stout support below $30. That may continue to be a bottom. However, like gold, do not be surprised if silver gets pressed down all the way to the blue line on the weekly chart. This could drop silver as low as 24 or 25. Having price drop that far would present an extraordinarily compelling buying opportunity and it won't stay there very long, I can assure you of that.

I've gotten a few inquiries regarding copper so here are charts of it, too. Further weakness in copper may provide the catalyst for the PMs to move lower so ole DrC must be watched closely.

Lots of crazy stuff going on again today so my advice to you is to sit back, relax and enjoy the theater. Oh, and keep stacking, too. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 20, 2011 - 10:00am

good morning

Good morning.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:02am

Thank you Turd


Thanks for all your hard work on behalf of Turdville. Looking forward to the podcast with Jim Comiskey this weekend.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:03am

Peter Degraaf:

"Every minute of the day the central banks of the world put out 2 million dollars in new currency. At the same time the world's mines produce 90 ounces of gold. The ratio is 22,000 to 1. As long as this process continues - gold will rise."

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:08am


Just like a Transformer: Short on Paper, Long on Metal.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:08am

Betting on the collaspe

Paper is dead. The charts are dead. All we have left is to wait out the collapse of the entire system. Not sure about you, but I got nothing but time.

stained white shirt
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:35am
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:39am

Good Morning Turd and Turdland

Late night for this one, just now getting online to see what happening after cleaning, feeding and medicating the critters. 5-10% daily up and down moves in silver will def get the CMEs attention and spark talk of volatility ... Pretty much exactly what the Big T was saying huh? When will the margin hikes come and where is the bottom? To my thinking a slow ratchet down with regular 10% swings to the upside would serve them well in getting the CME to implement additional choke on margins and help the criminals in covering that ridiculous short position. I think the transparency and pos limits that apply to honest traders will only apply to 'them' after that short pos unwinding is finito. (Can't have another bank failure and the gov doesn't want to put all JPMs losses off on the FDIC like they did with Meryl Lynch/BAC and the like when they can screw us evil 'anti dollar PM investors' instead.

Just a random though... WTFDIK?

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:39am

Impact of CFTC Ruling

I keep thinking about the exceptions, that Bart Chilton referenced; ya know?
Certain cartels won't have to follow the limit rule, set in place. So, I mean there was
only 12 organizations that have access, right & then some will be immune to the rule.

Is that accurate? So, what are the chances TPTB still remain in complete control &
if anything this new regulation that goes into play, just cleans out any other compettitors.
It just seems that this effort may centralize control, even more ( making it a counter productive effort).


Because, Bart was saying he wished he could of relayed who those certain companies (cartels) are,
that don't have to follow the new rule and he knows, he just couldn't share. Hmmmm..

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:42am

Was the site down?

Was it down everywhere or just locally? I'm wondering if it's my ISP.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:44am

i suspect

ben davis, et all i wrong then about gold getting to $2000 by end of year. all i can say is that who knows. ups and downs. predicting short term in this volatility isn't possible. I subscribe to different newsletters and all have there POVs some are right sometime and some are wrong. Will see how things play out over the next year which means, that we can't say "i know in amonth or two gold will be higher". probally be another year to get us to a certain destination point.

and by the time gold hits $10000. if it ever does, most of us could be dead.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:44am

PMs and industrials

I agree with the Turds charts, but we can be surprised again. The PMs can be punished with the panic option, what with all the positive news coming out of Europe.

I'm still a buyer, but I'm in no hurry. My silver orders are taking longer to get filled. So lower prices on the precious, may just choke out availability.

Is there any indications that copper is telegraphing the price movement of platinum and paladium?

Oh and the consumer spending rise is just me buying more survival foods.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:44am

The site appeared to be down

The site appeared to be down and when it came up again there was a new post from Turd.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:45am

Virus Warning

Google Chrome states site contains material from a site that contains a virus. ???

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:46am

It was the Bernank....

Just testing his new blog override button.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:46am

silver buying opportunity coming?

Turd F said,

"do not be surprised if silver gets pressed down all the way to the blue line on the weekly chart. This could drop silver as low as 24 or 25. Having price drop that far would present an extraordinarily compelling buying opportunity and it won't stay there very long, I can assure you of that."

I would not be surprised to see silver spike down to that area. What would surprise me would be if anyone would be awake to take advantage of it. I believe that a big dip could unleash a frenzy of buying. I don't think they would want to see the major PM dealers posting SILVER SOLD OUT signs.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:47am

British Humor (Re Quantitative Easing)

Clarke and Dawe - Quantitative Easing
Two Gun Tobin
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:49am

Big Yellow Hat and Pumpkin

While waiting for the metals to decide which way they're going, i've been harvesting in the garden. The Big Yellow Hat grows a mean pumpkin!

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:52am

Occupy Washington DC

Jesus threw the money lenders out of the temple because they were operating their craft in his Fathers house. If OWS was really serious they would be occupying Washington and throw the money changers out of the peoples house.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:56am

Phoenix Capital Research... re: financial collapse

I know some people make fun of him, I treat him as another data point and overall, I've made money following him (not always exactly, but it gives me good things to consider... just like this site).

He just released a paper yesterday about the coming "Great Debt Implosion" as it applies to Europe, the US and the world in general and it was pretty good stuff. Nothing new for anyone here, but laid it out really well if you're looking for "mental reinforcement/fortitude" on what most of us think is coming.

I have ZERO basis for what I'm about to say other than just pure gut feeling, but I'm going to say it anyway because I'm guessing that there are a few people other than me that have anxiety right now.

We've all talked about "huge/massive volatility" but I don't think we know what that means yet. We think we do, we talk about it, but it's like combat, until you've been on the "two way range," you don't get it, period. At the same time, we all have stars in our eyes about where we think gold and silver will go price wise. However, I think EVERYONE should plan on a big deflationary push before the inflationary rocket takes it all higher and when we do get that deflationary push, probably in starting in 2012, it's probably going to make most people, even here, shit their pants and vomit at the same time. That said, this is what I'm personally mentally preparing for so that I don't shit the bed if it happens and get shaken out of some of my physical (and I'm 50% NET WORTH in physical... I consider that a HUGE bet on the future) and a quote the other day here helps... the quote was along the lines of "just like a real bull ride, the bull tries to shake the rider(s) and only a few hang on until the end." That said, here is what I am prepared to see sometime in the next 12-24 months and this is COMPLETELY unscientific! ;)

In 2008, the financial collapse pushed silver down roughly 50% to $10ish and it then went to nearly $50 two years later.

If what's coming pushes it down 50% from when I started thinking this way, it would be pushed to about $19, but I think after that, it will probably go up more than 5X next time, but even at 5x, that's $100/oz.

I'm not saying that Ivar's charts are right or wrong, but his trend is probably about right, who knows what the timeline will be.

Bottom line though, I agree with Graham Summers that is DOES NOT MATTER what the EU does on Sunday, Greece WILL default next year and not only that, the entire European banking sector will likely go down sometime next year as well... it will be their 2008 and the EU's GDP is larger than ours and so are their debt ratios. There will be a run to the USD first and yes, that will push EVERYTHING down HARD for awhile.

Anyway, I think everyone should mentally prepare for silver at or below $25 at some point so that you are "ready" for it and expect it. If it doesn't happen, it's all gravy.

Just my two bits.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:57am

Bear channel developing?

Even though I'm bullish long term, Am I the only one seeing a bear channel developing in the brink of giving up with a potential $1470 ish target?

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:57am


British Humor (Re Quantitative Easing)

That's Australian mate! ;-)

Hey what's this with Google Chrome, it states this page has a virus sat'n on it, message:

Warning: Something's Not Right Here! contains content from, a site known to distribute malware. Your computer might catch a virus if you visit this site.
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:57am

volume rising - ag dropping

FUBM time (FUTF in progress)

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:58am

Two Gun Tobin

Awesome pic.

Instant smile

Oct 20, 2011 - 11:01am

remember the last time we tOOk somebody out

cough cough aLLegedly...

if this is not a gOOd reason 4 the metal to drop. i do not know what is.

Tom L
Oct 20, 2011 - 11:01am

EURUSD falling like a rock. 

EURUSD falling like a rock. USDX up, everything else selling off. The trade is still on and G&S are getting hit worse than the general market. Bonds are not rallying hard here, but bounding aroun the 139 level. Not sure where capital is moving at this point, but it's moving out of stocks. But, the risk-off trade is on... WTIC $85, DrC $3.09.... HUI will flirt with 485 again.

Now, watch closely for a headfake as tomorrow is OE. Widening volatility to pump up premiums to sell. I'll be surprised if this results in major net moves as they are trying to move things near to the Option Pain numbers for tomorrow.


RuNuts ¤
Oct 20, 2011 - 11:02am

DPH Was the site down?

Udders verticle for about 10 minutes here as well.

Oct 20, 2011 - 11:04am

Gaddafi 'killed, died of wounds'

This just in from RT; There's another video with pictures of the dead colonel, but I'm not posting anything with pics of a dead bloody corpse...

Gaddafi 'killed, died of wounds': Video of Sirte

Gaddafi 'killed, died of wounds': Video of Sirte celebrations
Oct 20, 2011 - 11:05am

I can live with Au 1750 and flat Ag

Nice to see your year end projections Turd. It's going to be a very interesting 9 weeks.

Ok.... talk about your ugly long term charts... anyone here find this news shocking? Or not? Maybe there really are a lot more silver people than I realized? Ya gotta keep an open mind about these things...

CDC: Antidepressant use skyrocketed in past 20 years

WEDNESDAY, Oct. 19 (HealthDay News) -- The rate of antidepressant use among Americans of all ages increased nearly 400 percent over the last two decades, and 11 percent of Americans aged 12 and older now take antidepressant drugs, according to a federal government report released Wednesday.

"Doctors who prescribe some popular antidepressants should monitor their patients closely for warning signs of suicide, especially when they first start the pills or change a dose.

The analysis of 2005-2008 data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys also showed that antidepressants are the third most common prescription drug taken by Americans of all ages and the most frequently used by those aged 18 to 44...."

Oct 20, 2011 - 11:05am

@DPH re: site down

It was down for me at least 15 minutes...maybe more, but I got tired of the page down message and did other things.

RaRaRasputin RedRover
Oct 20, 2011 - 11:07am


Clarke & Dawe are Aussie comedians - but I'll take it as a compliment that you think this came from our Isle instead


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