Chart Review

Thu, Oct 20, 2011 - 9:58am

We haven't had a chance to discuss the longer-term charts for a while.

Before you look at these charts, it's probably best to remind you of our year-end goals. Keep in mind that, since 2001, gold has had an average gain of about 25%/year. Consequently, my goal for 2011 has always been $1750. Yes, all the excitement of August led me to think that $1750 was a bit on the low side but now, with the benefit of hindsight, it still looks like the right number. Are you wondering about 2012? Take $1750 and add 25%. As for silver, I would not be surprised to see it end up about flat on the year. This would mean a 12/31 close of somewhere between 29 and 32. Silver is a little harder to pin down as its pattern isn't as long and consistent as gold's. Either way, I expect a BIG 2012 for silver so a relatively flat 2011 in preparation would make some sense.

OK, first up is gold. Note that, on the daily chart, you can see plenty of strong support between 1580 and 1600. However, you should also take a long look at the weekly chart. Corrections seem to come about every six months and they almost always dip down to touch the lower end of the channel. So, do not be surprised if gold teeters a bit at 1580 and then gets a square shove from The Bernank down toward 1500.

The daily chart of silver shows pretty stout support below $30. That may continue to be a bottom. However, like gold, do not be surprised if silver gets pressed down all the way to the blue line on the weekly chart. This could drop silver as low as 24 or 25. Having price drop that far would present an extraordinarily compelling buying opportunity and it won't stay there very long, I can assure you of that.

I've gotten a few inquiries regarding copper so here are charts of it, too. Further weakness in copper may provide the catalyst for the PMs to move lower so ole DrC must be watched closely.

Lots of crazy stuff going on again today so my advice to you is to sit back, relax and enjoy the theater. Oh, and keep stacking, too. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 20, 2011 - 10:00am

good morning

Good morning.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:02am

Thank you Turd


Thanks for all your hard work on behalf of Turdville. Looking forward to the podcast with Jim Comiskey this weekend.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:03am

Peter Degraaf:

"Every minute of the day the central banks of the world put out 2 million dollars in new currency. At the same time the world's mines produce 90 ounces of gold. The ratio is 22,000 to 1. As long as this process continues - gold will rise."

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:08am


Just like a Transformer: Short on Paper, Long on Metal.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:08am

Betting on the collaspe

Paper is dead. The charts are dead. All we have left is to wait out the collapse of the entire system. Not sure about you, but I got nothing but time.

stained white shirt
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:35am
Oct 20, 2011 - 10:39am

Good Morning Turd and Turdland

Late night for this one, just now getting online to see what happening after cleaning, feeding and medicating the critters. 5-10% daily up and down moves in silver will def get the CMEs attention and spark talk of volatility ... Pretty much exactly what the Big T was saying huh? When will the margin hikes come and where is the bottom? To my thinking a slow ratchet down with regular 10% swings to the upside would serve them well in getting the CME to implement additional choke on margins and help the criminals in covering that ridiculous short position. I think the transparency and pos limits that apply to honest traders will only apply to 'them' after that short pos unwinding is finito. (Can't have another bank failure and the gov doesn't want to put all JPMs losses off on the FDIC like they did with Meryl Lynch/BAC and the like when they can screw us evil 'anti dollar PM investors' instead.

Just a random though... WTFDIK?

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:39am

Impact of CFTC Ruling

I keep thinking about the exceptions, that Bart Chilton referenced; ya know?
Certain cartels won't have to follow the limit rule, set in place. So, I mean there was
only 12 organizations that have access, right & then some will be immune to the rule.

Is that accurate? So, what are the chances TPTB still remain in complete control &
if anything this new regulation that goes into play, just cleans out any other compettitors.
It just seems that this effort may centralize control, even more ( making it a counter productive effort).


Because, Bart was saying he wished he could of relayed who those certain companies (cartels) are,
that don't have to follow the new rule and he knows, he just couldn't share. Hmmmm..

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:42am

Was the site down?

Was it down everywhere or just locally? I'm wondering if it's my ISP.

Oct 20, 2011 - 10:44am

i suspect

ben davis, et all i wrong then about gold getting to $2000 by end of year. all i can say is that who knows. ups and downs. predicting short term in this volatility isn't possible. I subscribe to different newsletters and all have there POVs some are right sometime and some are wrong. Will see how things play out over the next year which means, that we can't say "i know in amonth or two gold will be higher". probally be another year to get us to a certain destination point.

and by the time gold hits $10000. if it ever does, most of us could be dead.

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