Here We Go Again

Time to start another week. The charts suggest a quiet, rangebound week. Why is it I feel they're deceiving me?

As you can see on the updated charts below, gold and silver look to continue consolidating below key resistance this week. Gold looks to have the greater potential of breaking higher as it is already in its "MaxQ" area and reached a high of 1697 overnight. Silver is still being leaned upon by The Forces of Evil and, with margins so extraordinarily high, it will be challenging for it to muster enough speculative buying strength to drive it higher.

Of course, the scheduled CFTC meeting tomorrow might have a bit of an impact on these markets, too. I would encourage you to make one more attempt at influencing the decision on position limits. For you convenience, here are the email addresses of your friendly commissioners:

ggensler[at]cftc[dot]gov

bchilton[at]cftc[dot]gov

somalia[at]cftc[dot]gov

jsommers[at]cftc[dot]gov

mdunn[at]cftc[dot]gov

Maybe mention that "position limits are essential to free and fair price discovery" and that the imposition of the "position limits mandated by the Dodd-Frank Law" are a "good starting point". You might also remind the commissioners of the Mission Statement of the CFTC and how it applies in this case:

The CFTC's mission is to protect market users and the public from fraud, manipulation, abusive practices and systemic risk related to derivatives that are subject to the Commodity Exchange Act, and to foster open, competitive, and financially sound markets.

In the "news" today, it seems that Citi has taken a page out of the Fraud Perpetuation handbook recently authored by your friends at JPM. Will the BS ever cease?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-earnings-bloodbath-38-billion-123share-reported-earnings-really-05-billion-or-016share

Lastly, there has been a recent spate of defections from longtime friends of this site. Though I am, of course, sorry to see anyone leave, it comes with the territory. Regular users of this site will come and go. Some will just drift away while others will leave in a huff of righteous indignation. Either way, the only folks this site cannot live without are the Tech Team and the moderators. Without them, this entire operation is at risk. Please, for the greater good, I beg you to observe the guidelines of the site and respect your fellow members.

Have a great day. Prosper and be happy. TF

194 Comments

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jimmyveri

Oct 18, 2011 - 11:21am

It seems that everyone is

It seems that everyone is telling us to buy gold or silver no matter where we look. Of course it would be nice if we can all do so but unfortunately that is simply not the case. I hope that many will be able to though and that it will serve them well.

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Bozzz

Oct 18, 2011 - 9:36am

Ivars, I really appreciate

Ivars, I really appreciate you sharing your knowledge, here. I think one reason your ideas aren’t being seriously considered on Turds site is a context issue… or maybe, they are, and it’s not, and I’M just the last to figure it out.

I presume you’re from Russia or from an area close to there, and, no offense, but your writing is sometimes a bit misleading, for example, you wrote.

“Also, FED can print a lot and USD will not fall as no one wants it.” When I first read this, I thought you meant no one wanted our dollars and our dollars will appreciate in value. Well, that didn’t make any sense, not until I read it several time and put it together with the rest of your message.

What I gather your intended message is, is that no other country wants our dollar to decrease in value as it’s on their “balance sheet”, and for this reason they won’t let it decrease. And how this happens is, it’s going to be a printing war, the U.S. against the rest of the world, and the world will over whelm our efforts...until 2016 anyways.

I would STRONGLY recommend that the “turites” read carefully what Ivars writes, it’s very compelling and makes a whole lot of sense.

Seoul_Stacker

Oct 18, 2011 - 7:34am

Credit Unions

Sorry if this has been covered before or is not the appropriate place to ask, but since I have seen it mentioned several times the past few days, I have to ask: what exactly are the benefits of using a credit union over a bank?

ivarsC1

Oct 18, 2011 - 7:10am

@c1 strong USD does not depend on Congress

But on the USA willingness and survival need to borrow despite recession. You can not cut a trillion USD from budget every year- and that is the speed the deficit will grow starting with recession in 2012. BTW, if the USA hit second recession in q1 2012, there is nothing congress can do to consolidate the budget in any meaningful way. Also, FED can print a lot and USD will not fall as no one wants it. It is practically impossible, with USA in second recession, to debase the USD in any sharp moves.

The only way for the most of the WORLD to continue functioning as is, with gradual, rational changes (with EUR going down) is to credit/ borrow more, and , for that reason, both USA AND creditors will see that USD is as strong as possible ( its on EVERYONE'S balance sheets). And for that reason, debt will continue to accumulate until creditor trust is broken - alternatives are found (2016).

Of course, it will get cheaper vs. some commodities- so far I have figured out silver and oil- perhaps a whole basket of them, as well as some currencies ( JPY, may be YUAN, may be oil/resource exporter currencies.)

Again and again, the CHART is the outcome that includes information about all events (incl. manipulations etc ) in given market system, predicted and unpredicted. I do not make ANY assumptions before making a prediction chart ( other than that it should not contradict a chart in the past that has proven right- like my silver https://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=40#p31020, Gold -https://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=220#p32176 , DJIA https://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0#p30485( longer term) charts.) All other assumptions have to be dismissed , but, after the prediction chart is made, it can be interpreted with events and some logic starts to appear.

Here is better explanation why charts work - they express collective knowledge of the market about its future no single market participant has:

https://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9704127

The main point of this paper is that the market anticipates the crash in a subtle self-organized and cooperative fashion, hence releasing precursory “fingerprints” observable in the stock market prices. In other words, this implies that market prices

contain information on impending crashes. If the traders were to learn how to decipher and use this information, they would act on it and on the knowledge that others act on it and the crashes would probably not happen. Our results suggest a weaker form of the “weak efficient market hypothesis” [49], according to which the market prices contain, in addition to the information generally available to all, subtle informations formed by the global market that most or all individual traders have not yet learned to decipher and use. Instead of the usual interpretation of the efficient market hypothesis in which traders extract and incorporate consciously (by their action) all informations contained in the market prices, we propose that the market as a whole can exhibit an “emergent” behavior not shared by any of its constituent. In other words, we have in mind the process of the emergence of intelligent behavior at a macroscopic scale that individuals at the microscopic scale have not idea of.

This process has been discussed in biology for instance in animal populations such as ant colonies or in connection with the emergence of consciousness [1, 50]. The usual efficient market hypothesis will be recovered in this context when the traders learn

how to extract this novel collective information and act on it. Most previous models proposed for crashes have pondered the possible mechanisms to explain the collapse of the price at very short time scales. Here in contrast, we propose that the underlying cause of the crash must be searched years before it in the progressive accelerating ascent of the market price, reflecting an increasing built-up of the market cooperativity. From that point of view, the specific manner by which prices collapsed is of not of real importance since, according to the concept of the critical point, any small disturbance or process may have triggered the instability.

The intrinsic divergence of the sensitivity and the growing instability of the market close to a critical point might explain why attempts to unravel the local origin of the crash have been so diverse. Essentially, anything would work once the system is ripe. Our view is that the crash has an endogenous origin and that exogenous shocks only serve as triggering factors. We propose that the origin of crashes is much more subtle and is constructed progressively by the market as a whole. In this sense, this could be termed a systemic instability.

rjsand

Oct 18, 2011 - 12:49am

Must Listen

Lesley Williams has been out selling his latest videos. I'm not buying the videos, but I'll certainly be buying more of the phyzz as soon as I can.

Video unavailable

pourty

Oct 17, 2011 - 7:39pm

@Gil

I sold it on the Nucleo Exchange. Someone listed a bid for $1719 sometime early this morning, spot was around $1670 something when I sold it, so yeah, I got a decent premium over spot. Of course, discount 1% for BullionDirect, I got $1701.85 for it in the end. Still not bad considering I paid $1620 for it 3 months ago...

sixdollarsilver

Oct 17, 2011 - 7:26pm

@pining for the fjords

Great analysis, totally agree.

I'm as tired of this repetition as anybody, but if it carries on as is, it should indicate short term bottoms are in at 1665/31.50 for the PMs with short term highs in 24-36 hours.

Being aware of this of course means it will undoubtedly change at this point! Like you, I see it as a base for a move higher, but if it goes down a la Maund who cares. It'll soon be back and off.

tburkcpnscarlet

Oct 17, 2011 - 6:05pm

T-Bonds

If I have this right the Fed lends to the banks at nothing with the understanding that the banks will buy the bonds and then sell them back to the Fed at a "profit". No way can rates go up appreciably in that system. am I understanding this correctly? Anyone?

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Oct 17, 2011 - 5:20pm

@ Ivars - Strong Dollar

There are some proponents of a strengthened dollar... "When has a weakened currency ever led to prosperity?"

The problem that I see with your charting is that it doesn't seem to take into consideration the meat-axe, meat-head actions of Congress.

I think the social implications of the coming cuts will surprise everyone. When falling from a height, just about any path will get you to the bottom.

Thanks for your postings.

cz0840

Oct 17, 2011 - 5:16pm

Boy was I wrong

I'm sorry if I gave anyone false hope for metal prices to rise today. I've been looking at prices for the past three years and thought I found a quick-buck trend (like playing roulette when several black numbers have been played in a row). Usually (now it is) when its a Friday and the after market price closes higher than NYSE price, then you could expect much higher price on the following Monday.

Well, it started out that way early Monday morning and then...BAM.... down the metal prices like a deflated balloon.