Monday, Monday

Mon, Oct 10, 2011 - 10:18am

After a fun, three-day weekend, The Turd is rested and ready. I'd like to thank everyone who sent emails and donations along to cheer me up and inspire me to continue. All are much appreciated.

First up, here are your updated 2-hour charts. There's clearly a lot to like on these charts. Well, not the BS downdrafts that put us here but the action since has certainly been encouraging. Both charts look to be building in strength but that are both hitting into that area we've called "Max Q". Again, once we're above Max Q, you can get excited. Until then, the PMs are simply at the top end of the range they've been in since finding a bottom two weeks ago today.

The Commitment of Traders report from Friday showed a continuation of the massive, bank short-covering and spec long liquidation trend and total open interest is getting amazingly low. These number indicate that either the Comex is closing and going out of business or the situation is getting increasingly bullish. I'll let you decide.

This next item is interesting. At a speech in Houston last week, Commissioner Chilton laid into his fellow commissioners a bit. The text of the speech is linked below at the "SilverDoctors" site:

I found this last night, too. You might want to print and save this one:

Lastly, as mentioned above, I appreciate all the well wishes and attempts at cheer. Please understand that my frustration is not with you, my dear reader, or with the PMs, in general. This site was built with the goal of reaching and helping as many as possible and, to that end, it is succeeding in spectacular fashion. My main "issue" these days is all the talk of revolution and the anger that comes with it. Even some long-time friends of the site have gotten caught up in the fervor and I am finding all of this to be increasingly toxic.

I am an ardent believer that we need a revolution in this country but it's a revolution of ideas. It's a revolution of the spirit and of the soul, not of anger. It's a revolution of peace and a selfless commitment to helping others, not a revolution of tyranny and guillotines. Please, I beg you to look inwardly. You must first affect change in your own life and the lives of those immediately surrounding you. In time, our current financial system and way of life is doomed to failure. The system will inevitably collapse from the weight of its own corruption and dishonesty, not by group action and protest.

Therefore, be patient and utilize this time to prepare. Learn and know what you believe in and why you believe it. You must prepare to lead not follow. Your courage must come from your convictions, not from the mob you join.

Hand in there and have a great day. More later. TF

p.s. I'm confident that the comments section will soon be littered with all sorts of angry and bitter, anti-TPTB rants. Fine. Just keep it civil. I'm instructing all the mods to keep a very short rein on each and every member. If you want to vent and argue, take it to the forums. In fact, we've even created a dedicated forum just for you:

Remember, don't be a jerk and always treat others the way you want to be treated. Anyone abusing this site or its members will soon find their "account" suspended. This site has standards of decorum and anyone that doesn't like these "rules" should leave. Now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 10, 2011 - 8:02pm

Haole, well exactly, a very

Haole, well exactly, a very reasoned, calm post there and to be honest those that personally attack will only personally attack because they haven't used reason to support their words.

Oct 10, 2011 - 7:20pm

daveyboy >> "You don't reason

daveyboy >> "You don't reason with people like that, please get real, there will be violence, UNLESS the political elite suddenly pull back from the brink and want to salvage something. If not it's wastelands and violence, I am sorry but that's the reality."

stephanie >> "No, that's not the reality. You are trying to create that reality, however, and that's sad."

So the precedents for this that have been occurring in Europe, North Africa and the ME are just being created in our minds? By no means is violence a wish or conscious strategy to most I'm sure but it is unrealistic to discount the possibility of violence if enough people end-up in leg hold traps up against a tree so to speak. Daveyboy is absolutely right in a sense. Reasoning with these people, (the proverbial "1%") or showering them in love and understanding, is an absolutely absurd notion. Using our love and understanding of the situational dynamics as best we can however is a strategy of sorts perhaps? I think it's safe to say that most here are changing their little worlds to one degree or another. This will project... The love, energy and fortitude is good. I submit the anger is good too.

I think there's a lot of passion and frustration in here that is too easily being written of to blind anger and negativity.

The whole premise of the blog is negative, the end of the financial/monetary system as we know it? How many times have prolific posters on here gone on about how the system is ready to collapse at any time and to prepare? These are profoundly challenging times and people are only human, I think everyone is grateful to have this outlet and some moral support after all. If we can't be free to express ourselves and our views (good and bad) respectfully on these subjects in a mutually supportive environment however, then what's positive about that? If people are upset because of too much negativity then paint the place pink and have a nurse come around twice a day with a cup of pills..? ;) If many think wading through mires of endless conjecture and speculation all the time is always positive then whatever melts one's butter. ;)

In these times more than any other in our lives, we need to be united and support others in our differences of opinion. All of them are not going to be positive. I find all the charts, TA and predictions from everyone virtually irrelevant now personally. It's fun to look back and see who made a good call or two but everyone is fundamentally guessing. Especially in markets that threw fundamentals, ethics and rationality out the window some time ago. This place seems like more of a barber shop than anything else and it's that freestyle exchange of information, ideas and viewpoints that interests me personally. As long as disagreements can remain civil, I think freedom inform, educate, argue, vent, etc. should be encouraged but that's just my $0.02 again. It's Turd's baby and although I disagree strongly with some of his "beliefs" I support him 100% and will never forget his little contribution to a better world, even if he becomes sick of it all and shuts the whole shootin' match down.


Oct 10, 2011 - 7:15pm

Ol'e Turd does it again - - -

P.M. ANALYST WINS GOLDEN TURD AWARD - - - - When asked "What's your secret Mr. Ferguson." Ol'e Turd said - - - - "I don't talk a bunch of crap"

Oct 10, 2011 - 6:48pm

Ben & Jerrys icecream. "We Join You"

Icecream makers Ben & Jerrys have just posted "We Join You" on the hot topic of the "Occupy" Wall Street protests ...presumably we're only minutes away from Gates & Bulmer of Microshite global software monopolists for decades joining the "mob" !!

@ Atarangi : that is one awesome cartoon... The Best ..thanks ;))

Titus AndronicusRuNuts
Oct 10, 2011 - 6:47pm


"Very interesting chart Titus Andronicus . Also you said: "Something else is that gold is the opposite. A falling trend since 2000." Any ideas what to attribute this to?"

No. I don't think it is particularly unusual. The silver trend, on the other hand, seems very long-term bullish to me.

Oct 10, 2011 - 6:38pm


Your chess comment reminded me of a video I saw this morning on MacSlavo Youtube. Check it out if you get 5 minutes. I would be interested to hear your take on it.

Video unavailable
Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Oct 10, 2011 - 6:37pm

It staggers me that people do

It staggers me that some people do not see the correlation between wealth and tyranny. What stops the west from going into this tyranny is having some semblance of a middle class. What stops the middle class is what is occurring right now. So the middle class have 2 choices, either put aside their differences with those from other ideologies and come together to unite against this evil theft, or they rail against the protestors, become even more firmly entrenched in their mindsets, sit down on the sofa, clutch their possessions a little bit tighter and prey, hope they don't get bitten.

This is not about the left, or the right, socialist, or capitalist, centrist or any other ridiculous label they choose to apply. When I talk about class warfare, i am not referring to going against the middle class, i am talking about the much less than 1% who are pillaging absolutely everything and if the middle class have the courage of their convictions, they will realise they have more to lose than most and therefore their voices will be heard the loudest. If you don't trust. or like those protesting now, then good, take your own protests to the streets. Waiting for the tea party, the conservative party or any so called political party to do that for you is to accept your own destruction though.

Oct 10, 2011 - 6:36pm

Message for EE

This is to put you on official notice that we are not backing away - NEVER. We will prevail until you no longer exist nor have the capacity to wage a whack down war. Your days are numbered. Effective Oct 10 2011, this proclamation is hereby made with the full understanding that a Change is about to Come

Oct 10, 2011 - 6:36pm

Thanks Stephanie

Thanks for saying that.

Oct 10, 2011 - 6:36pm


Thanks for the passionate and reasoned post.

Sorry about the Blitzer article right under it... "Doh!"

Not trying to be inciteful, just informative on issue's.

Keep up the good work. I've also noticed the change on the web site at times and I agree with you. Some people have gone underground a bit for various reasons. One of them is what you just laid out.

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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