Monday, Monday

Mon, Oct 10, 2011 - 10:18am

After a fun, three-day weekend, The Turd is rested and ready. I'd like to thank everyone who sent emails and donations along to cheer me up and inspire me to continue. All are much appreciated.

First up, here are your updated 2-hour charts. There's clearly a lot to like on these charts. Well, not the BS downdrafts that put us here but the action since has certainly been encouraging. Both charts look to be building in strength but that are both hitting into that area we've called "Max Q". Again, once we're above Max Q, you can get excited. Until then, the PMs are simply at the top end of the range they've been in since finding a bottom two weeks ago today.


The Commitment of Traders report from Friday showed a continuation of the massive, bank short-covering and spec long liquidation trend and total open interest is getting amazingly low. These number indicate that either the Comex is closing and going out of business or the situation is getting increasingly bullish. I'll let you decide.

This next item is interesting. At a speech in Houston last week, Commissioner Chilton laid into his fellow commissioners a bit. The text of the speech is linked below at the "SilverDoctors" site:

I found this last night, too. You might want to print and save this one:

Lastly, as mentioned above, I appreciate all the well wishes and attempts at cheer. Please understand that my frustration is not with you, my dear reader, or with the PMs, in general. This site was built with the goal of reaching and helping as many as possible and, to that end, it is succeeding in spectacular fashion. My main "issue" these days is all the talk of revolution and the anger that comes with it. Even some long-time friends of the site have gotten caught up in the fervor and I am finding all of this to be increasingly toxic.

I am an ardent believer that we need a revolution in this country but it's a revolution of ideas. It's a revolution of the spirit and of the soul, not of anger. It's a revolution of peace and a selfless commitment to helping others, not a revolution of tyranny and guillotines. Please, I beg you to look inwardly. You must first affect change in your own life and the lives of those immediately surrounding you. In time, our current financial system and way of life is doomed to failure. The system will inevitably collapse from the weight of its own corruption and dishonesty, not by group action and protest.

Therefore, be patient and utilize this time to prepare. Learn and know what you believe in and why you believe it. You must prepare to lead not follow. Your courage must come from your convictions, not from the mob you join.

Hand in there and have a great day. More later. TF

p.s. I'm confident that the comments section will soon be littered with all sorts of angry and bitter, anti-TPTB rants. Fine. Just keep it civil. I'm instructing all the mods to keep a very short rein on each and every member. If you want to vent and argue, take it to the forums. In fact, we've even created a dedicated forum just for you:

Remember, don't be a jerk and always treat others the way you want to be treated. Anyone abusing this site or its members will soon find their "account" suspended. This site has standards of decorum and anyone that doesn't like these "rules" should leave. Now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 192


dmanson · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:21am


You're the man Turd, glad you are rested and ready to roll!

Perfidious Albion · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:24am
H - original · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:28am

I picked up 8lbs and 3Oz of solid Gold

My wife gave birth to our first baby boy on Friday morning. TF and everybody here, I want to thank you all for the insight that you have given me. That insight will ensure that we can best prepare him to live thru what may come and enjoy brighter times to come. H

jaynutter · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:34am

Thanks turd

Thank you for always reminding us what it's about. It's so easy to succumb to anger in these trying times! Thanks for reminding/challenging us to be better than that. Keep doing what you're doing. Brings the hopeful together. Without such places to gather, I'm sure many of us would be less able to meet the future as prepared as we are. Keep on keeping on. God bless.

Maryann · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:35am

Good morning and H...congrats!!

TF, so glad you had a good rest and are back. Great words of encouragement and clarity regarding the coming events. Much wheat and chaff to sort through but what a good process. boys are the best!! : ) So happy for you. To bring new life into the world is good and affirms belief in something bigger than ourselves. Hope you are ready and rested up 'cause you're gonna be busy! :D

RedRover · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:36am
0351 · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:37am

I couldn't agree more

I'm sure the system will end in spectacular fashion, but whether or not it will be bloody or to what extent, is completely dependent on our attitudes. Not that I'm particularly hopeful in that area, but I've seen enough real violence to at least be willing to try something different first.

It's strange; while I have no intention of getting rid of my stockpile, at least for dollars, I'm still rather happy that its value in dollars is going up even though this decreases by purchasing ability. So very conflicted.

Also, good that you're feeling better.

jrobb316 · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:41am

Peaceful revolutions are rare

Peaceful revolutions are rare in history and thinking we are going to get one is wishful thinking at best. Take a step back and just look at the population. Most have become slaves that will lick boots as long as the entitlements keep flowing. When they stop there will be blood. The theme of this site is right... Prepare accordingly. I have moved from the depression stage to the acceptance stage. Accept there is no easy way out. The criminals that seized the US and the world are going all the way. There is no stopping it now except maybe divine intervention. Prepare now to save your family some future pain. Death no longer frightens me. What will happen will happen. Just make sure you secure in what happens on that day we all meet eternity.

Dr Durden · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:41am

Aaaah yes

Another moment where the sun peaks it's head out of the dark looming clouds. Another moment where all seems well....

Then rain, hard rain, hail, hurricane force winds, death, destruction.

Could be a great fiat making event taking place right now. Let the oversold become over bought a little, load up your shorts, sit back and watch it all fall apart....again....

0351 · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:41am


..On your Son. I don't envy you the worry that you'll experience in these times. You have something amazing to live for though, and that I envy. I hope they're both in good health.

ScottJ · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:42am

Does anyone still think this is anything but 100% Algo Driven?

Honestly... after watching this stuff for over a year now, I have come to my own personal conclusion that these markets are nothing but pure algorithms. Watching this stuff oscillate with such precision makes me wonder how anyone ever believed this was a real market.... there are no statistical oddities... only precision touches of key price marks. Formations always break to proper breakout/breakdown targets.... etc...

The "short story" could be a strawman... this is not about the COMEX and JP Morgan...

This is about what they are protecting... the dollar reserve standard (metal priced in currency).

With all safe-haven curerncies now effectively debauching themselves.... I feel they are about ready to let gold and silver appreciate to now price the public out of physical before they know what hit them.....

Market is reaching a new level of disbelief.... one in which will result in a massive move when the resolution does come....

Keep your eye out....

P.S. -- All of this "they have more money to short." business.... they create the fiat.... they have infinite money (or digital purchasing power).... don't humor yourself that the master manipulators of gold/silver (currency control) are doing any of this for money.... it is all for perception.....

averagejoe · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:43am

Thanks Turd

You always seem to say it right turd.

I know I lost a nice chunk, all my profit for sure getting greedy. It upsets me I did it again just like May. That's why I have been quiet. Playing the paper game is risky. Stacking is so much better.

Thanks for your insight Turd

turdfan · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:44am

well spoken


Therefore, be patient and utilize this time to prepare. Learn and know what you believe in and why you believe it. You must prepare to lead not follow. Your courage must come from your convictions, not from the mob you join.

Eric Original · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:47am

H O'


0351 · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:48am

Well of course Peacefull Revolutions are rare

But I prefer to start with respect, kindness, and the hope for something better, rather than start with the extreme bloodshed that I am capable of inflicting, and for which I'm prepared. I like to make friends whenever possible, not instantly alienate people.

Tesla · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:48am

Thank You Turd!

Please pace yourself and take time to enjoy life, family and friends EVERYDAY man!

God bless you and your family!

[Edit] You are a one of a kind class act man. The example you set for others is off the charts cool!

Eric Original · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:50am


Brewers, Packers, Metals, Miners. Yes indeed, there IS joy in Mudville on this fine Monday morning!

fats · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:52am

well said

Did some soul searching, myself, this weekend after arguing with my wife over my desire to get involved in the Occupy movement. Turd is right, it's time to prepare, and prepare those close to us. It's clear to me that most people don't understand the causes of their discontent, and are actually calling for MORE of the same - I don't think any amount of shouting, regardless of how much sense you make, is going to steer the angry mobs toward the right solution. I think this is all going to play out into the hands of the 1%. More government, more taxes, less freedom, in the name of "punishing wall street."

Let's make sure friends and family hear our message of preparedness first and foremost. 

I like Gerald Celente's 3 G's:

  1. Guns
  2. Gold
  3. Getaway Plan
paulindoon · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:53am

Cdn Thanksgiving today

First of: TF glad you're back & continued "THANKS" for this site & your input. YOU are the MAN - in my book and in many others as well - no doubts!!!.

Today is Cdn THANKSGIVING celebration. Seeing that our country is generally colder than our good neighbour to the south, our harvest comes in earlier than USA. So our Thanksgiving is also celebrated earlier .

To ALL my fellow Canadians, may I extend to yous all a HAPPY THANKSGIVING. To all else - yes a happy day to yous also.

· Oct 10, 2011 - 10:54am

Violence is not necessary.

Poor, wretched, and stupid peoples, nations determined on your own misfortune and blind to your own good! You let yourselves be deprived before your own eyes of the best part of your revenues; your fields are plundered, your homes robbed, your family heirlooms taken away. You live in such a way that you cannot claim a single thing as your own; and it would seem that you consider yourselves lucky to be loaned your property, your families, and your very lives. All this havoc, this misfortune, this ruin, descends upon you not from alien foes, but from the one enemy whom you yourselves render as powerful as he is, for whom you go bravely to war, for whose greatness you do not refuse to offer your own bodies unto death. He who thus domineers over you has only two eyes, only two hands, only one body, no more than is possessed by the least man among the infinite numbers dwelling in your cities; he has indeed nothing more than the power that you confer upon him to destroy you.

Where has he acquired enough eyes to spy upon you, if you do not provide them yourselves? How can he have so many arms to beat you with, if he does not borrow them from you? The feet that trample down your cities, where does he get them if they are not your own? How does he have any power over you except through you? How would he dare assail you if he had no cooperation from you? What could he do to you if you yourselves did not connive with the thief who plunders you, if you were not accomplices of the murderer who kills you, if you were not traitors to yourselves? You sow your crops in order that he may ravage them, you install and furnish your homes to give him goods to pillage; you rear your daughters that he may gratify his lust; you bring up your children in order that he may confer upon them the greatest privilege he knows — to be led into his battles, to be delivered to butchery, to be made the servants of his greed and the instruments of his vengeance; you yield your bodies unto hard labor in order that he may indulge in his delights and wallow in his filthy pleasures; you weaken yourselves in order to make him the stronger and the mightier to hold you in check.

From all these indignities, such as the very beasts of the field would not endure, you can deliver yourselves if you try, not by taking action, but merely by willing to be free. Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break in pieces.

Etienne de La Boétie - Discourse of Voluntary Servitude


OC15 · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:54am

You got it ScottJ

I completely agree. There are very few real people "in there buying and selling". Markets are completely driven by algos which are set in a certain direction based on the MOPE that came out the previous day. I know you are largely talking about PMs but this applies to equities as well. Does any real person who has a remedial grasp on financing believe that the debt will be fixed? I doubt it. 

Merkel and Sarkozy "agree to strengthen banks" and the markets skyrocket? Oh that's all it took? A handshake between Germany and France? Well that settles it, crisis solved. And you know what? I can't even call it MOPE anymore because the targets of a MOPE operation (that would be the general population) don't have the money to make markets move violently like that. Remember 1% owns 50% of the wealth (well probably more than that) and the other 99% are not tooling around day trading. Most of the lower 99% who have wealth are tied up in funds and 401ks. It's more like you are watching a financial soap opera.

I am so so pissed at these people I will refrain from commenting further.

¤ · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:54am

Thanks TF

Sounds like your re-energized and ready to go.

We'll need you going forward as this unfolds. Message understood.

Letsbehonest · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:56am

My first post

Thank you Turd for all your hard work. I've followed you since the inception of this site I just haven't joined until now.

 Two things. First my condolences for your friend and hope he or she a full recovery. My best wishes.

 Secondly I can't tell you how great it was as I listened to your interview with Jim Rodgers and he addressed you as ' Turd " Ha

 I truely wish your friend the best. 

Hammer · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:57am

(No subject)

The Mamas & The Papas - Monday Monday
EagleDave · Oct 10, 2011 - 10:59am

New Weekly Report from Larry Edelson

Starting reading him a a month or so ago. He called the major drop in PMs a few weeks ago and he still sees gold and silver heading lower before the next big leg up. He's a long-term bull, but a short-term bear:

AS FOR GOLD AND SILVER: Their declines are NOT over yet either!

I see gold falling to below $1,525 — down to as low as $1,432. If that level gives way at any time, gold could fall all the way to the $1,100 level.

I also expect silver to fall at least to the $23 to $25 level. Believe it or not, if silver breaks $23 at any time, it should fall as low as $19.

I also have not recommended the selling of any of long-term core gold positions. As painful as it might be to hold on to profitable gold positions as gold pulls back, exiting them makes no sense to me.

It is far better to keep the long term in focus, and add to your core metals holdings when the dust of this correction settles. Don’t worry, I will alert you when that time comes!

If, on the other hand, you did hedge any of your core gold holdings, my recommendation is to hold your hedge until:

A. I give you the all clear signal that the metals have bottomed.

Or …

B. I’m proven wrong and gold closes back above $1,890 on a Friday closing basis.

Until that happens, gold and silver remain vulnerable to sharp new lows during this corrective, disinflationary phase.

I expect virtually the entire commodity complex to get hit heading into the end of this year and into 2012, including base metals, soft commodities, and grains.

From a long-term perspective, this pullback will prove to be resoundingly bullish. It will set the stage for another round of quantitative easing from the Fed and other central banks as well.

Now, to some of the most frequent questions I’ve been receiving that need answering …

Bay of Pigs · Oct 10, 2011 - 11:00am

Yes TF, prepare now.

"Quantitative Easing, Or When There's Nowhere Left to Run"

"The idea that QE is primarily to help the economy recover is Keynesian guff, a cover for the true reason. Without it, the U.S. and U.K. would have to compete for global savings at far higher interest rates. What price $2 trillion in new Treasuries with no QE? What price L175 billion in new gilts? The debt trap has already sprung. And few investors yet seem aware of the irony that loading up banks with Treasuries and gilts is exactly what the eurozone banks have already done for the PIIGS. Whatever the current difficulties faced by European banks and the U.S. and U.K. governments and their banking systems, there is only one option for all of them: Buy time by printing yet more money. This is why the banking system in the eurozone and elsewhere will survive. Banks need governments as much as governments need them. The cost of this survival will be borne by the unwitting saver, who has been frightened into cash only to find it being debased more rapidly than before."

BOP: ECB set to go full steam ahead with this. Time to prepare is now.

Brotha Bob · Oct 10, 2011 - 11:14am

Thanks TF

Thanks TF for all you do. I agree the whole OWS, does appear scary. A revolution for freedom, and not a revolution for tyranny, is what is needed. The general point of demonstrating against the corrupt EE is a good one. Do we going towards a more totalitarian socialist regime, or a free market liberty loving society? That is what will determine success or failure.

¤ · Oct 10, 2011 - 11:15am

Berlin Police Find Explosives Near Rail Station

Berlin Police Find Explosives Near Rail Station Q

By Patrick Donahue - Oct 10, 2011 10:23 AM ET

Police in Berlin found explosives in a tunnel leading to the city’s main train station, foiling a possible attack in the center of the German capital hours after a signal station caught fire northwest of the city.

Authorities closed off the station’s north tunnel at around noon today after employees for state railway Deutsche Bahn AG found a number of bottles containing flammable fluid, Federal Police spokeswoman Nadine Marschner said. The closure disrupted traffic in and out of the glass-and-steel terminal, which opened in 2006 as Europe’s largest multilevel station.

Deutsche Bahn condemned the attack and referred to a note claiming responsibility for the...

Haole · Oct 10, 2011 - 11:16am
¤ · Oct 10, 2011 - 11:18am

Congrats H on becoming a Dad

A whole new world of intense emotions lies ahead of you and the Mrs.

Hope both are doing well, and Dad to.

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