More Downside Ahead?

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:01pm

Wow, this is really getting ugly. Metals down. Miners down. Yuck. Can it get worse? You bet it can. How much? I guess that depends upon whether or not this is "IT".

Gold 1596. Silver 28 and change. ABX 43. EXK 7.60. SLW 25.97. YIKES! DOUBLE YIKES!! But there is currently a pretty significant rally taking place in the stock market so maybe all is well. OK, probably not. It's more likely just The Fed painting the tape through the intercession of their primary dealers.

Here are your updated PM charts. This latest selloff has made their nascent recoveries look tenuous, at best. Both appear poised for a mid-week test of last weeks lows.


Having fallen this far, it's hard for me to believe that the metals won't test their respective long-term trendlines before they are done. Here are re-prints of the weekly charts I posted back on Sunday.


And here is a 5-year chart of the HUI. The 480 area has often acted as support but it wouldn't surprise me to see this index fall all the way to 450. Of course, if the U.S. stock market collapses this month like it did 3 years ago, it ain't gonna stop there so, if you own the miners, you should stay very cautious.


And this, from ZH, offers about the best advice available right now:

Now, go forth and prepare. We may be on the verge of the great collapse that so many of us have been expecting. We might also not be. Maybe the proverbial "can" can get kicked a bit further down the road once again.

Who can say for sure?

If we aren't on the verge, we should consider ourselves blessed for having additional time to prepare.

If we are on the verge, God help us all. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 191


kliguy38 · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:07pm
silvergoldsilver · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:07pm

Anyone get the rally memo?

from 3-4 today? SQUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE them lemons. I guess Dexia not failing today was enough for the HFT to kick in. Good luck trading.

tread_w_care · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:10pm

Bring it on

I am getting greedy with my next phyzz order. 1500 please. Make my day.

LongGoldLongSilver · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:11pm

Just the Cover They Need

It's just the cover they need to unleash the mother of all QEs. Just read between the lines...or on the lines! "The Federal Reserve could start a new broad-based lending program to address a potential run on U.S. financial system if the European crisis worsens, Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. 'We would make sure we would stand ready to provide as much liquidity against collateral as needed as lender-of-last-resort for our banking system' Bernanke said in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. While the Fed does not 'anticipate' needed to start such a program, 'we will certainly be prepared to respond if anything eventuates,' Bernanke said. The Fed would need the approval of the Treasury Secretary before starting such a program, he said."Read full MarketWatch article here

Well, you can take it to the bankrupt bank that the European banking crisis will worsen and even more so that Geithner will stand behind such action.

OC15 · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:13pm

Nice call

"If he doesn't hint at printing the 3-4 session will be a bloodbath"...NOT

Bay of Pigs · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:13pm

Golden Jackass

 From Jim Willie, 

USTBONDS: The Monster Spleen

The USTBond is in strong rally mode because the United States is in the process of systemic failure, leading ultimately to some form of official debt default. The Greek Govt Bond yield rises from its fractured insolvent ruined status. The USTreasury Bond yield falls from its fractured insolvent ruined status also. It is a Black Hole, attracting funds from productive chambers of the USEconomy and pulling them into the dark place loaded with deficits, defaulted debts, and decay of capital.

Fiat money has turned toxic, and so have their bonds which support the crumbling monetary system. The mess in Europe offers an excellent glimpse of what it to come to the United States. We have our mortgage toxic vat. They have their PIIGS sovereign toxic vat. The US has transformed into the prettiest horse in the glue factory.

dumpstergourmet · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:15pm

Perfect timing

Looks like Calvin has got the bloat and is bouncing like a superball.

LongGoldLongSilver · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:17pm

Financial Index

Do you really think they're gonna let this one go to 2000? Well, maybe...but not without some heavy injections of liquidity. The banks are broke, QE or not, but gold and silver don't have 50 trillion dollars in bad collateral on their balance sheets. Expect them to respond accordingly to warp-speed printing.

FogHorn LegHorn · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:19pm

long term gold chart 9.99 -what a deal folks!!

Spot gold @ 9.99 but wait, we'll double that offer you'll get 2 ounces of bullion for the amazingly low price of 9.99 an ounce , just pay extra shipping and handling, send your check or money order to the morgue attn/ b.masters act now! limited offer , max ten per household.

ReachWest · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:20pm


I know a lot of us have been waiting for the collapse as Turd mentions, but when it does happen, we'll wish it never did. Of that I am sure.

austrian12874 · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:21pm

shaking mh head

un fukin believable....

CLOUD BURSTER · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:23pm

just a thought

i have never thought this through, but what is a "safe" amount of silver/gold to have for insurance in case of the great collapse? sometimes i feel it will make us more of a target.

· Oct 4, 2011 - 4:23pm

Re: God Help Us All

For those that have some connection to some kind of higher power, I'd be working that angle as aggressively as the stacking and other preparations. Don't wait until the 11:59pm on doomsday to make that connection.

Dr Durden · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:25pm



Ain't it fun to be up 19% in 55 minutes?

RaRaRasputin · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:30pm

October blues

(Copied from last thread as didn't know new one had gone up)

Hey Turd

I like October - it's my birthday this month, which actually falls near the clocks going back, just wish my age was going back like the hour :)

This is the tune that is running through my head:

Rawhide Blues Brothers

We're only 4 days into the month and the wheels appear to be falling off. But I've prepared accordingly and the last of my purchases arrive later this week. I am not afraid. OK my miners are bleeding from every orifice but I'll stay strong and hold.

All will be well - we just need to stay strong as a community until the storm has passed


CLOUD BURSTER · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:30pm

Re: just a thought

as much as you can possibly accumulated. You DO NOT WANT to be holding anything green. If I was living in Europe now, I'd HOLD ANYTHING but the Euro that includes my nephews insect collection. 

LongGoldLongSilver · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:31pm


Just reposting this. The Commercials haven't been this little short since the bottom of 2008. Either you join them and stock up or you hand them your silver. It's up to u! I know they would love it.

paulindoon · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:33pm

Is this what happened to ignite Ag/Au

ZH has put out a FT story per

So now all it takes is a rumour to ignite this mad market!!!!!!!!!!!

Not complaining re the rebounce of Ag but..........


FT Causes Massive Short Squeeze With Mother Of All End Of Day Rumors Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/04/2011 16:08 -0400

Here are the key selected sections from the FT story that sent the Dow Jones soaring 400 points from its intraday lows: "Although the details of the plan are still under discussion, officials said EU ministers meeting in Luxembourg had concluded that they had not done enough to convince financial markets that Europe’s banks could withstand the current debt crisis... “There is an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, co-ordinated approach in Europe while many of the elements are done in the member states,” Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, told the Financial Times. “There is a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on.” Mr Rehn cautioned that while there was “no formal decision” to begin a Europe-wide effort, co-ordination among EU’s institutions – including the European Central Bank, European Banking Authority and the European Commission – on necessary measures had intensified." So, there is .... nothing definite, just more speculation, more rumors, and more innuendo. But hey, it worked last week with the Liesman rumor. It obviously would work for the FT which has become the End of Day rumor source du jour, first with China bailout rumors (since denied), then with recapitalization rumors (denied), and now with this joke. Pathetic.

Bay of Pigs · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:35pm

Does Blue Horseshoe

like Silver Wheaton?

I'm sure their numbers will really suck for the last quarter. <heavy sarc>

Xeno · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:35pm

Re: Panic

Thank you cpnscarlett for posting the panic vid from the mst2k gang in the previous thread.

It has been a long time since I laughed so hard on such a nasty day.yes

No worries though, we are very close in price and time to Armstrong's turning pointssmiley

Violent Rhetoric · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:38pm

Sad to say I agree with

Sad to say I agree with Turd's assessment that 1,500 is certainly possible on Gold. I think Silver could go as low as 22.50 to 23 depending on how you want to draw that long term trend line. Hope not. We'll see.

GoldMania3000 · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:39pm

If you have profitis

take some losses and don't give the profits to the government. hold the cash and disperse it when we go lower..a lot lower maybe.

FriedEggs · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:45pm

Nice come back

at the end of the day for Au/Ag (trying to be optimistic)


It seems that as soon as it hits the 1596/28.half - it comes back up.


I had enough of 'these' bastards for the afternoon - time to burn one up... Shill? HNM? ScottJ?? Turd?!?!? - i think you burn.


Anyone that wears a hat like that - burns heavy... lol


SilverFocker · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:49pm

No need to be afraid

it is not the end.......things may not look good , but how long have they been this way. We are not at the end point. We can walk the edge for a very long time as has been proven over and over again. For years this pig has gotten fatter by the day......soon it may go poof in the night , but this is not it.

· Oct 4, 2011 - 4:49pm

feeling contrarian

You know, as I check and find gold at 1620, and silver back at 30, I begin to wonder if the gods are trying to drive TF crazy. That was a pretty good bounce.

atlee · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:51pm

while u laugh at the shorts

They are busting a gut laughing at you. Seen a chart lately? Who is making all the money? It aint the longs. They will toss you a bone once in a while to keep your dream alive. Let you crow "FUBM take that" Then the beatings will continue. Laugh all you want at the shorts. They don't care, they are actually making money while you dream on.

2turdledoves · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:56pm

From Bix

The DOWNGRADE of the United States of America sent shock waves through the multi-Trillion dollar derivative market. The carnage will be visible in the next few weeks. Here's the largest derivative holders at the end of the second quarter according to the OCC: JP Morgan $78.1 Trillion Citibank $56.1 Trillion Bank of America $53.2 Trillion Goldman Sachs $47.7 Trillion It is said that derivatives are a negative sum game because there is always a winner and a loser. Unfortunately, this market has grown to such gigantic proportions that it is no longer true. The "Winners" will soon find those wins uncollectible as none of the counterparties can withstand the kind of losses coming down the pike. Hemorrhaging from either derivative losses or defaulted derivative gains the entire system is hanging by a computer rigged shoe string. Don't be surprised to see all four of these "too big to fail" banks go down by the end of the year.

thesandbox · Oct 4, 2011 - 4:57pm

and for the factual after 4pm

and for the factual after 4pm news.....Italy's debt downgraded....timing is everything ;)

Economical Disaster · Oct 4, 2011 - 5:00pm

SWAT Teams in St. Louis Protecting Bank of America

Refusing Customer Withdrawals

Video unavailable
cpnscarlet · Oct 4, 2011 - 5:01pm

Now This Will Really Fry Your Noodle

Okay, we get a sharp spike down and we yell "Manipulation". Now we get a severe spike up and we're gonna blame a RUMOR? And that FT story isn't enough to hang a G-string from, much less a hat.

So let's have the great thinkers in on it this - WHAT HAPPENED?

I say Asian traders decided that this would be the first day of many when they are going to strike at the least expected time (many hours before HK open) and thwart the GLOBEX slam down. Why now? Because they saw today enough panic selling in the markets (PM as well as equities) to say that sentiment was as low as it was going to get. They also saw something in Bernanke's testimony that tells them QE^3 is coming soon.

That's my throw at the dart board. I'm sitting down for a pint. Who's next?

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