October

282
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:04am

I love this month and I hate this month. Before we begin:

U2 - October

"October and the trees are stripped bare
Of all they wear. What do I care?
October and Kingdoms rise and Kingdoms fall
But you go on...and on..."

Against that melancholy backdrop, we take on the day and it's not pretty. First up, that "Dave in Denver" guy has written something that you absolutely must read:

https://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/10/will-morgan-stanley-be-real-tipping.html

He wrote that yesterday. Now consider this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/ms-1-year-cds-hit-800875-curve-massively-inverted

Additionally, there are the problems at Dexia, the largest bank in Belgium, perfectly summarized by Harvey:

"Today we had huge stories which will shape gold and silver for years. The big story of the day and for that matter this quarter, is the huge problems over at Dexia, the largest bank in Belgium. Belgium has no government as nobody want to take over and they have a caretaker government. Dexia bank has total liabilities equal to 180% of GDP of Belgium.
And Belgium is going to nationalize the bank? As of today, Belgium has a debt to GDP of 99%.
Can you imagine what will happen to its Debt to GDP once they assume the liabilities of Dexia?
The situation in Belgium is similar to Iceland except multiply it by a factor of 30 as
Iceland has a population of about 330,000 and Belgium has a population of about 11 million.
Belgium has a GDP of 336 billion Euros and its federal debt is around 333 billion Euros.
The Dexia bank has debt of 604 billion Euros. Add the old debt of the nation at 333 billion Euros on top of Dexia's debt of 604 billion and you have a catastrophe developing."

So, is it time to panic? No. At least, not yet. However, like Octobers past, one can clearly see how this can get out of hand very quickly. We've spent considerable time here discussing "the end of the great keynesian experiment" and how you should "prepare accordingly". If you haven't yet prepared, I suggest you visit the "Preparing Accordingly" forum for tips and ideas. In the meantime, it's always a good idea to look around and "think outside the box". Maybe stop by the ATM today and pick up a little extra cash. Maybe call up Provident or Gainesville and order some extra physical. Maybe run by Costco for some extra non-perishables. Maybe. Not sayin. Just sayin that there's a lot of nasty stuff currently bubbling to the surface. Right now is a time when you need to be paying very close attention.

As this pertains to the short-term price of the metals...who knows? As you can see on the charts below, both metals are working themselves into technical corners. Obviously, anything can happen but, if I had to guess, silver looks like it is about to break lower in coordination with a global risk liquidation. $24 is still a possibility. Gold looks better and it should not see as much selling pressure for the obvious, fundamental reasons.

Hang in there. The time is now for sober consideration and planning. Help each other and try to remain a force for good. I'll update as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  282 Comments

winemaker
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:07am

Thanks Turd.

Thanks Turd.

TitanAe
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:08am

Goodmorning

Hey Turd !!

Dr G
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:09am

A repost of my thoughts from

A repost of my thoughts from the last thread:

I think we are down for the rest of the week. This is the leg down, probably to $24/25ish, that sets us up for a move up when all is said and done. Down every day this week, culminating in a big down day on Friday, which is the BLS report day. Remember that the jobs data was ZERO jobs created, last month. Therefore, any jobs created can be spun as "jobs are getting better". The MSM will use that line time and time again and the Cartel will use it to drop the metals lower.

The charts almost point directly at the $25 range.

swmnguy
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:10am

Expect the Unexpected

I don't see how anyone can trade this market. As far as I can see, as a non-specialist just trying to figure out how best to protect my family going forward in this financial in-sink-erator grinder, the only thing that doesn't carry the enormous risk of complete wipeout is to stack physical, and to convert FRN's into tangible things like a furnace that works, a new roof, good tools, non-perishable items, etc. And those benefits, even the PM's, may not come in financial form. An ounce of AG at a nominal FRN value of $5 is a better deal than a $5 FRN that doesn't buy anything.

That's a worst-case-scenario outlook, but how else can a guy plan? If the worst case doesn't come about, then, that's better, right?

paulindoon
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:14am

Helicopter Ben testifying this morning

I wonder how much of this Ag/Au takedown that is currently on, is an attempt by whoever (maybe EE but who knows?) to limit damage that this exposure by Ben's testimony this morning in front of US Joint Economic Committee will otherwise create.

Live feed: https://www.c-span.org/Events/Fed-Chairman-Updates-Congress-on-Economic-Outlook/10737424526-1/

aha69
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:16am
Gont
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:16am

Time to sell ?

Is it time to sell all my Star Wars figurine and buy some phyz ?

ewc58
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:19am

Yup, sure looks like the question is whether it's Doomsday

this October, or whether the Can can be Kicked one more time...

I'm pulling this post forward as of course, I just posted it on the prior thread. When will I ever learn, especially at this time of day- - it's primetime for new Turd passings:-)

New blog post at KWN. Not really sure what "sincerity" Mr. Griffiths is referring to, maybe it's just me but I just don't pick that up from Owebombya. Not at all... But the rest of this sounds right. Lot's of predictions for the global currencies, he stack ranks them.

If you want to know how crazy our world has become is, here's another eye-opener. What does it say when the "strongest" fiat paper is the Yen? Ok, the fact that they now glow is somewhat of a novelty, yes.... but does that actually constitute strength? ... I'm wrestling with that one :-)

"This means that ranked in order of strength it is likely to be the Yen, US dollar, sterling, euro, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar"

---------------------------------------------------------

"October 4 (King World News) - United States: No government has any money of its own. So when a government says it is going to spend $450bn, what it means is that it is going to take this amount away from somebody else.

Secondly, governments do not really create jobs, businesses do that. And what they need is an environment of small government, with minimum regulations and low taxes. Government just needs to get out of the way and business will do the rest.

Many US companies already have a trillion dollars in cash overseas. There are circumstances under which they would bring that money home to invest and create jobs in America. These conditions do not yet exist. That money will not come home if it is going to be taxed and regulated.

For all his sincerity, the current President has socialist tendencies which, if allowed to go unchecked, could destroy what made America great...."

GoldMania3000
Oct 4, 2011 - 10:20am

Printing around the corner. will be like clock work.

Fed Is Prepared to Take Further Action on Economy: Bernanke Published: Tuesday, 4 Oct 2011 | 10:06 AM ET Text Size By: Reuters
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The Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help a fragile economic recovery held back by a weak job market and financial stresses in Europe, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.

Ben Bernanke
"The Committee will continue to closely monitor economic developments and is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability," Bernanke said.

Given a anemic employment growth that has depressed consumer confidence, Bernanke urged lawmakers not to cut spending too quickly in the short-term, even as they grappled with trimming the budget deficit over the long term.

He said government belt-tightening was likely to prove a significant drag on the world's largest economy, which averaged less than 1 percent annualized growth in the first half of the year.

"A(n) important objective is to avoid fiscal actions that could impede the ongoing economic recovery," he said.

Bernanke said European financial strains posed "ongoing risks" to U.S. economic growth, saying they had already dampened the mood of households and businesses.

Stressing that higher inflation earlier in the year had not become ingrained in the economy, Bernanke argued price pressures will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
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7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
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7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
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7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
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7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
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6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
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