Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:04am

 I love this month and I hate this month. Before we begin:

U2 - October

"October and the trees are stripped bare
Of all they wear. What do I care?
October and Kingdoms rise and Kingdoms fall
But you go on...and on..."

Against that melancholy backdrop, we take on the day and it's not pretty. First up, that "Dave in Denver" guy has written something that you absolutely must read:


He wrote that yesterday. Now consider this:


Additionally, there are the problems at Dexia, the largest bank in Belgium, perfectly summarized by Harvey:

"Today we had huge stories which will shape gold and silver for years. The big story of the day and for that matter this quarter, is the huge problems over at Dexia, the largest bank in Belgium. Belgium has no government as nobody want to take over and they have a caretaker government. Dexia bank has total liabilities equal to 180% of GDP of Belgium.
And Belgium is going to nationalize the bank? As of today, Belgium has a debt to GDP of 99%.
Can you imagine what will happen to its Debt to GDP once they assume the liabilities of Dexia?
The situation in Belgium is similar to Iceland except multiply it by a factor of 30 as
Iceland has a population of about 330,000 and Belgium has a population of about 11 million.
Belgium has a GDP of 336 billion Euros and its federal debt is around 333 billion Euros.
The Dexia bank has debt of 604 billion Euros. Add the old debt of the nation at 333 billion Euros on top of Dexia's debt of 604 billion and you have a catastrophe developing."

So, is it time to panic? No. At least, not yet. However, like Octobers past, one can clearly see how this can get out of hand very quickly. We've spent considerable time here discussing "the end of the great keynesian experiment" and how you should "prepare accordingly". If you haven't yet prepared, I suggest you visit the "Preparing Accordingly" forum for tips and ideas. In the meantime, it's always a good idea to look around and "think outside the box". Maybe stop by the ATM today and pick up a little extra cash. Maybe call up Provident or Gainesville and order some extra physical. Maybe run by Costco for some extra non-perishables. Maybe. Not sayin. Just sayin that there's a lot of nasty stuff currently bubbling to the surface. Right now is a time when you need to be paying very close attention.

As this pertains to the short-term price of the metals...who knows? As you can see on the charts below, both metals are working themselves into technical corners. Obviously, anything can happen but, if I had to guess, silver looks like it is about to break lower in coordination with a global risk liquidation. $24 is still a possibility. Gold looks better and it should not see as much selling pressure for the obvious, fundamental reasons.


Hang in there. The time is now for sober consideration and planning. Help each other and try to remain a force for good. I'll update as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


winemaker · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:07am

Thanks Turd.

Thanks Turd.

TitanAe · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:08am


Hey Turd !!

Dr G · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:09am

A repost of my thoughts from

A repost of my thoughts from the last thread:

I think we are down for the rest of the week. This is the leg down, probably to $24/25ish, that sets us up for a move up when all is said and done. Down every day this week, culminating in a big down day on Friday, which is the BLS report day. Remember that the jobs data was ZERO jobs created, last month. Therefore, any jobs created can be spun as "jobs are getting better". The MSM will use that line time and time again and the Cartel will use it to drop the metals lower.

The charts almost point directly at the $25 range.

swmnguy · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:10am

Expect the Unexpected

I don't see how anyone can trade this market. As far as I can see, as a non-specialist just trying to figure out how best to protect my family going forward in this financial in-sink-erator grinder, the only thing that doesn't carry the enormous risk of complete wipeout is to stack physical, and to convert FRN's into tangible things like a furnace that works, a new roof, good tools, non-perishable items, etc. And those benefits, even the PM's, may not come in financial form. An ounce of AG at a nominal FRN value of $5 is a better deal than a $5 FRN that doesn't buy anything.

That's a worst-case-scenario outlook, but how else can a guy plan? If the worst case doesn't come about, then, that's better, right?

paulindoon · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:14am

Helicopter Ben testifying this morning

I wonder how much of this Ag/Au takedown that is currently on, is an attempt by whoever (maybe EE but who knows?) to limit damage that this exposure by Ben's testimony this morning in front of US Joint Economic Committee will otherwise create.

Live feed: https://www.c-span.org/Events/Fed-Chairman-Updates-Congress-on-Economic-Outlook/10737424526-1/

aha69 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:16am
Gont · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:16am

Time to sell ?

Is it time to sell all my Star Wars figurine and buy some phyz ?

ewc58 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:19am

Yup, sure looks like the question is whether it's Doomsday

this October, or whether the Can can be Kicked one more time...

I'm pulling this post forward as of course, I just posted it on the prior thread. When will I ever learn, especially at this time of day- - it's primetime for new Turd passings:-)

New blog post at KWN. Not really sure what "sincerity" Mr. Griffiths is referring to, maybe it's just me but I just don't pick that up from Owebombya. Not at all... But the rest of this sounds right. Lot's of predictions for the global currencies, he stack ranks them.

If you want to know how crazy our world has become is, here's another eye-opener. What does it say when the "strongest" fiat paper is the Yen? Ok, the fact that they now glow is somewhat of a novelty, yes.... but does that actually constitute strength? ... I'm wrestling with that one :-)

"This means that ranked in order of strength it is likely to be the Yen, US dollar, sterling, euro, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar"


"October 4 (King World News) - United States: No government has any money of its own. So when a government says it is going to spend $450bn, what it means is that it is going to take this amount away from somebody else.

Secondly, governments do not really create jobs, businesses do that. And what they need is an environment of small government, with minimum regulations and low taxes. Government just needs to get out of the way and business will do the rest.

Many US companies already have a trillion dollars in cash overseas. There are circumstances under which they would bring that money home to invest and create jobs in America. These conditions do not yet exist. That money will not come home if it is going to be taxed and regulated.

For all his sincerity, the current President has socialist tendencies which, if allowed to go unchecked, could destroy what made America great...."

GoldMania3000 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:20am

Printing around the corner. will be like clock work.

Fed Is Prepared to Take Further Action on Economy: Bernanke Published: Tuesday, 4 Oct 2011 | 10:06 AM ET Text Size By: Reuters
  • Twitter

The Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help a fragile economic recovery held back by a weak job market and financial stresses in Europe, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.

Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke
"The Committee will continue to closely monitor economic developments and is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability," Bernanke said.

Given a anemic employment growth that has depressed consumer confidence, Bernanke urged lawmakers not to cut spending too quickly in the short-term, even as they grappled with trimming the budget deficit over the long term.

He said government belt-tightening was likely to prove a significant drag on the world's largest economy, which averaged less than 1 percent annualized growth in the first half of the year.

"A(n) important objective is to avoid fiscal actions that could impede the ongoing economic recovery," he said.

Bernanke said European financial strains posed "ongoing risks" to U.S. economic growth, saying they had already dampened the mood of households and businesses.

Stressing that higher inflation[cnbc explains] earlier in the year had not become ingrained in the economy, Bernanke argued price pressures will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.

ross1119 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:22am

Extremely poor sentiment

sorry guys couldnt figure out how to upload a chart

Tom L · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:24am


I don't think this is a primary trend-changing moment or anything, but here we go...

in the past 15 minutes :

1) gold spiked to $1640. held.

2) Silver spiked to $29.70. Held

3) Oil went down to $75.70... Held and has bounced to $76.40

4) The USDX (DEC) reversed quickly from 80.3 to 79.90.

5) Cu bounced back to $3.10.

Now the HUI needs to regain 511 and quickly. Gold needs to regain $1665 and silver $30.50. 

This stuff bears watching for a short-term reversal signal, which is going to keyt off of the USDX. 


ross1119 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:28am

Bullish Percent Miners


Cleburne61 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:29am

That Super Gold Bar...and Silver's Situation

For those who saw the sweet pic of the "super bar" of gold in China and inquired as to how big it was...here's this from Ed Steer to tell you:

"Here's a really neat picture of a 99.999% pure gold bar that weighs 200 kilos...one tenth of a tonne...or 3,215 troy ounces. It was on display in a department store/mall in China."

Now, I don't doubt it's 200 kilos...but someone help me with the math here, 1 kilo is 32.15 oz....so how can 200* 32.15 = 3,215 oz? Seems to me it'd be 6,430 troy oz. But either way....that's one impressive ingot!!!

And guys, as one of the most ardent of silver bugs alive, I beg you not to think that "oh, it's fallen too far too fast, the enemy can't get it any lower". Really? Did May not teach us? Have we already forgotten last week, when even the Turd was so surprised, he cursed in three different languages? Please lay off the well-meaning "they can't get it any lower" announcements. They can do almost whatever they want, short term, ok?

The enemy covered 16,000+ contracts. Yes, that's historic, yes 82 million ounces is amazing...but they'd have to cover that number again to be down to a position size that wouldn't violate position limits(that Blythe just dissed the idea of from Poland, btw, so yes it's on the regulators' minds).

WB(whether you believe in them or not) have cautioned that silver could be spiked down again one last time, to clean out even more longs, and set up an even more violent snap back. The enemy knows they can't keep this thing down long. Hell, the U.S. Mint sold 3 MILLION silver eagles in just one week! during the last week of September. Then they sold....737,000 of them in ONE DAY(October 1st)....At that rate, in just the last three months of 2011, the U.S. Mint would use 36 million oz for silver eagles alone, finishing the year with over 70 million silver eagles. If you think the "just in time" silver refinery system can survive the shock of 35ish million oz being sucked out of circulation in 3 months, think again. And that's just the U.S. Mint, mind you...it doesn't include all other mints of the world. The longer they hold it down, and the further it goes down from here, the more they ensure a whiplash, take-no-prisoners, type of rally. It's coming. Just please don't play the fool and call the bottom yet, experience in the silver paper routes should teach us humility. Our enemy is cunning and powerful, but they cannot stop what's coming...only delay it a little longer. Friends, let's keep our modesty as well as our wits about us in the meantime, until victory is ours.

Perfidious Albion · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:29am
ScottJ · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:31am

The Youth are Waking Up

Video unavailable
Tyler · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:35am

A history lesson

My trading account is not set up for options or anything. In a repeat 2008 environment, is there a better option than getting a bunch of inverse ETFs? Would love to hear other ideas.

2x2 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:37am

ultra worrying stuff

Turdy, Turdy, Turdy... light our way.

· Oct 4, 2011 - 10:37am

Bernank's world


This guy (and his cronies) live in their own world. Either that or they are master rhetoricians.
I can't believe that he is still blaming the sluggishness on "temporary factors." And now he is positing the dismal job market as a "cause" rather than an effect of our recession. He is using the "passive voice" to describe problems. Didn't his college English teacher beat that grammatical sin out of him years ago? Or does he do this on purpose to hide the agency of recession/depression. And of course, inflation is "subdued." Fed is prepared to take "further action". Sounds like more QE to me.

Doublespeak! Propagandist! Sophist! Why do we tolerate this? The longer he talks the madder I get.

Edit: Now he is blaming his inability to act on something to Dodd-Frank. Sure didn't stop JPM!

"backstop liquidity" = QE

End the Fed!

Shill · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:40am

10:37aBernanke: Fed ready to

  1. 10:37a

    Bernanke: Fed ready to aid financial system

  2. 10:32a

    Bernanke: Twist to give moderate help to recovery

Bla bla bla....Of course the market may like it for 15 minutes.

Tom L · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:42am

Short opportunity

coming up in MS. Gap filling in progress, big DBC. I'm going short at $13.20 or so.


stained white shirt · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:43am

October 18

Is there any correlation between the CFTC delaying their decision on Speculative Position Limits until October 18th and the GAO releasing a detailed audit of the Fed on the same day?


A more detailed Government Accountability Office investigation into corruption charges, securities fraud, embezzlement, money-laundering and conflicts of interest at the Fed is due on Oct. 18.

Does the CFTC want to see what is in the Fed (ESF) audit before they make/forced to make a decision on Speculative Position Limit?

ewc58 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:44am

Gold Futures going DOWN as the Bernank speaks???

Yup, confirmed. Bizarro World.

buzlightening · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:46am

western bankstering pig men have no way out

Crushing debt with debt based currencies says bacon burning to ashes. Wouldn't be holding bonds; debt or anything related. Richard Russell expects his clients to be out of equities as well. Can't say it's the end game but if it isn't the crash of paper fiat isn't but a step away into the abyss. 

Bay of Pigs · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:48am

Pretty waterfalls

Right on schedule, three of them already this morning...

Gold and silver were looking great last night. $1670 and $31 had been achieved.

Adrian Douglas gathered all this info a year or two back and showed these trading patterns (COMEX) and how it was virtually impossible for this to happen on it's own. For those who still have their head in the sand on the "manipulation" issue, you should check that out. You know, people like Toby Connor.

Without a doubt, China (and Asia) are taking advantage of these lower prices to purchase something tangible and real. A giant sucking sound of wealth and hard assets going from the West to the East.

RuNuts · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:49am

Anonymous Denies Having Plans To Take Down The Stock Market

"It is a fake planted operation by law enforcement and cyber crime agencies in order to get you to undermine the Occupy Wall Street movement."


dos pesos · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:51am

Current silver deals

Friends, just want to share a couple of deals with you. 1. 1 oz Canadian Cougars on sale at Kitco. Kitco sells at 4.5 over the spot. Check out how much they cost on eBay - you can browse completed auctions. Clean it up, brothas! https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist_USD.html?utm_source=ROS_Ma... 2. Red proof (1 and 1/2 oz) and gilded dragons at Perth mint. Only 1 and 5 per customer. Red proof dragons are limited edition of 10K. Gilded dragons are at 50K. My prediction that you can at least double up on red dragons if you sell it on eBay NOW. Next year is a year of dragon and Chinese will be buying that stuff like crazy. https://www.perthmint.com.au/catalogue/australian-lunar-silver-coin-seri... https://www.perthmint.com.au/catalogue/australian-lunar-silver-coin-seri... Thank you!
Shill · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:54am

Nice play Tom, Banks are

Nice play Tom, Banks are failing in Europe which will bring the sovereigns down, which will expose the multi hundred trillion $ CDS swaps and who has them when the music stops...let's face it, buying "insurance" on someones bonds failing is only good if the potential "payor" is solvent themselves...don't think MS, Dexia, SocGen, BNP, or any Spanish bank is going to make good on their swaps...banks are going down on this one.

And the little green blips of Hope are just that Hope. Ben said nothing, therefore he is doing nothing.

Tom L · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:54am

USDX Trend Channel Breakdown.

Here we go. The Bernank opens his mouth and the Dollar falls off. 


Shill · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:57am

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Market watch just crashed hard.

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Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization