Oink Oink

186
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 - 5:55pm

No, I'm not talking about this stuff:

The Turd has a little Danish blood in him. At Christmas, my Danish relatives would serve "braised red cabbage", as if it was some kind of holiday treat. They called it "Oink Oink". Looking at it now turns my stomach just as much as the real thing did 30 years ago.

Equally nauseating is this next picture of "Oink Oink". It's a weekly chart of our friend, Pigatha Christie.

Why is this so sickening you ask?

July 2008: Just as the POSX looked prime for a collapse, the "Great Financial Crisis" emerges to allow The Pig to catch a safe haven bid. It proceeds to rally 25% over the next 4 months.

December 2009: After double-topping in early 2009 near 90, The Pig has collapsed to near 74. All seems lost. Commentators are calling for the imminent end of the dollar and speculation arises that the dollar will soon replace the yen as the funding vehicle for the "carry trade". NOPE, and you can thank MOPE. A relentless media barrage develops that trumpets "green shoots" and the coming "recovery summer" of 2010. Shorts are squeezed in a 20% rally that extends back to the early 2009 highs of 89-90 on the POSX.

August 2011: Just when all looked lost and a re-test of the March 2008 lows seemed a virtual certainty, The PIG magically reverses and has now rallied 10% in just 6 weeks on renewed concerns for the longevity of the euro.

Now, you can say that July 2008 was a natural market reaction to the enormous uncertainty created by the financial crisis. OK, I'll give you that one. But the next two are clearly manipulated events, manufactured and timed to create a false sense of demand for the dollar, thereby "buying time" in an attempt to postpone indefinitely The Pig's eventual trip to the slaughterhouse. Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe this is all just a coincidence...

A couple of other things. First, I received via email this latest missive from Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in England. It covers many of the subjects we discuss here so I thought you'd get a kick out of reading it.

Silver Gorillas CFTC Etc-1

Lastly, just a reminder. When participating in this site, you are a part of a public forum in the public domain. Though we all enjoy the freedom to speak and freely associate with each other, you should be well aware that there likely be, from time to time, Orwellian monitors of this site and others. I do not believe that is something of which we should be fearful but it is definitely something of which we should always be mindful.

Have a great evening. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  186 Comments

tpbeta
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:02pm

Isn't it about QE

When Bernanke announces QE the POSX goes down and PMs go up. When he doesn't the opposite happens. Isn't it that simple?

Two firsts in one day. That makes me look a bit sad I fear. Just co-incidence, honest.

kiteline
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:08pm

2nd isn't so bad

just figured i would do it...

timpa
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:09pm

what's new

SERIOUSLY, WHAT IS...

Brotha Bob
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:22pm

Fifth

Fifth

Tom L
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:26pm

Piggies going Oink Oink

And with this rally in Pigitha Turd, what is interesting is how strong gold is in the face of it. There's been no breakdown of the primary trend like there was in 2008 with the Lehamn flush, the bottom of which created the current primary channel. The overnight markets have opened and we are pushing up against the $1665 level with the USDX over 80. Moving up in tandem as the only two safe-haven plays. If silver de-couples from Oil and DrC that would be a vote in its favor for 2nd'ary safe-haven asset as well.

We shouldn't be surprised that the Fed moved to defend the dollar as much as they have. Bernanke's tenure at the Fed has been one of moving the size of the Fed's balance sheet up in stages, like a swiss stair. He took over, held the AMB flat for 6 months and imploded the housing market a year later. Then in response we get TARP and a massive expansion of the AMB after which he holds it flat for most of 2009 then does QE1, then flat for most of 2010 then QE2... and we're into month 4 of the latest stair step up.

The AMB is the best of the monetary stats in predicting price inflation of commodities. It has always been this way. So, that's where we are now, a period of flat prices because of a rise in savings (spiking M1 and M2) while no new loan credit can be created because it's not demanded. Credit is being extinguished faster than it's being created so those marginal pricing bids no longer exist.

At this point it is obvious that the Fed is starving the banks to the point of extinction... AMB flat, credit flat/negative, M1, M2, MZM beginning to roll over after spiking.... There will be deflation only if the Fed allows it, ie. if it shrinks its balance sheet. All other discussion of deflation is moronic, please stop engaging in it. Deflation exists as a consequence of deliberate action on the part of the Fed's BoG, as does inflation. All else is just so much hand waving.

The question I have is this:

1) Is Bernanke is holding the AMB flat to get a washout in Commodity prices for political reasons or practical ones? In other words, has he decided to let a couple of the big Money Center Banks go in order to pop commodity prices to spur growth in what's left of the domestic economy?

or

2) Is he doing this to put a bid under the USD while Europe implodes so that there is a rational means by which the capital flows can be absorbed (b/c Gold can't handle it) before having to set off on another round of balance sheet expansion?

If he chooses #1 the stock markets and the commodities crash, the banks fail and the dollar is saved.

If he chooses #2 the stock markets and commodities meander, gold trades based on the Asian demand and eventually everything goes to the moon at different rates of ascent, gold going up the fastest once the AMB expansion is underway.

Tonight's action will be telling. If the asian markets bid gold over $1680 then London/NY will have their work cut out for them in the morning to hold the line and it's still just a matter of time.

Ta,

Tesla
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:27pm

Gold OI (-5,605 total contracts) still draining the pool?

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)Trade Date: 10/03/2011
Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated
Volume
Prior Day
Open Interest
OCT 11 1627.8 1660.8 1627.6 - +35.6 1656.0 101 3,715
NOV 11 1627.5 1664.0 1627.5 - +35.3 1657.1 585 200
DEC 11 1625.1 1667.0 1620.0 1661.0 +35.4 1657.7 139,531 279,172
FEB 12 1625.5 1668.5 1622.2A - +35.4 1659.6 1,586 43,478
APR 12 1633.5 1667.3 1633.5 - +35.5 1661.1 531 10,577
JUN 12 1631.0 1667.3 1631.0 - +35.6 1662.8 228 16,794
AUG 12 1638.0 1668.4 1638.0 - +35.5 1664.6 83 7,033
OCT 12 1635.7 1657.0B 1634.6 - +35.6 1666.6 14 4,579
DEC 12 1638.7 1674.2 1638.7 - +35.7 1668.9 227 15,592
FEB 13 1672.4 1672.4 1672.4 - +35.7 1671.0 102 3,390
APR 13 1672.0 1672.0 1672.0 - +35.6 1673.4 1 328
JUN 13 - - - - +35.5 1676.2 385 12,971
AUG 13 - - - - +35.3 1679.2 - -
DEC 13 - 1660.0B - - +35.7 1686.0 421 12,445
JUN 14 - - - - +35.6 1698.2 - 7,463
DEC 14 - - - - +35.4 1712.3 305 8,726
JUN 15 - - - - +35.1 1729.2 45 5,931
DEC 15 - - - - +34.8 1748.1 31 6,068
JUN 16 - - - - +34.3 1769.1 - 116
DEC 16 - - - - +33.3 1791.1 1 1,259
JUN 17 - - - - +33.3 1817.6 - 37
Total 144,177 439,874

Last Updated 10/03/2011 04:30 PM
beatlebum19
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:36pm
daveyboy
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:38pm
Tesla
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:38pm

Silver OI (-226 total contracts) actually +221*

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 10/03/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

OCT 11

29.965

31.200

29.930

-

+.709

30.750

28

19

NOV 11

29.980

31.330

29.980

-

+.709

30.776

60

74

DEC 11

29.935

31.430

29.670

-

+.712

30.795

40,550

62,303

JAN 12

30.100

30.575

30.100

-

+.711

30.813

54

202

MAR 12

30.130

31.395

29.825A

-

+.709

30.833

4,723

9,641

MAY 12

30.825

30.870

30.825

-

+.710

30.849

160

2,715

JLY 12

30.500

30.500

30.500

-

+.710

30.856

306

2,319

SEP 12

30.715

30.855

30.525

-

+.712

30.840

62

789

DEC 12

29.900

31.050

29.900

-

+.714

30.817

432

9,961

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+.715

30.795

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+.716

30.749

-

751

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+.718

30.702

-

135

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+.721

30.655

-

2,206

DEC 13

30.205

30.220

30.205

-

+.719

30.542

144

7,794

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

+.717

30.360

-

259

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+.719

30.232

2

1,271

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+.719

29.978

-

170

DEC 15

29.600

29.600

29.225

-

+.719

29.782

2

535

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

+.719

29.557

-

25

Total

46,523

101,170

-226 *after delivery of 445 contracts - this is a net gain of 221 contracts

ScottJ
Oct 3, 2011 - 6:39pm

Today's Behavioral Finance - Deceive Weakness in Gold/Silver

Today's perception management:

Have gold and silver rise early in the morning and slowly fall all day, especially into the close. The drops were conjoined exactly at the same time as equity market pressure, to disguise the strength of gold/silver safehaven, and trigger stops of people trying to catch the bottom but trade tight. Classic lower lows for short term trend but higher lows on longer term trend to close the day.

With all of the pessimism in silver and gold today, one may have forgotten that they ended up green on a day where the safehaven trade was activated on day 1 of this equity collapse.

They aren't going lower and staying there.... and all of this nonsense about gold going to 2000$+ while silver stays in the 30's is nothing more than the successful Public Relations attack they did on silver as money. You think dealers would not start raising premiums? The demand will call for it... or make it so itself.

You think if gold was at 2000$, silver would stay at 30-35$ range? They will not give the wildcard achilles heel of the unbacked fiat monetary system (silver) a chance to be amassed by the ever-increasing public. The idea is to keep the most amount of physical silver out of the hands of the public, not force mass losses and lose accreditation as a pricing mechanism.... the paper losses are just a warning to those who are playing to stay out or be aware.

They are not trying to solely cause paper losses for your portfolio. This is merely business to them... they could care less if you profit or lose, for they have their own agenda in mind.

The silver trade has begun, you cannot put it back in the bag.

Volatility is about to be unleashed. The markets are the central bankers way of telling us where we are in their plan to move to a new currency. If you think you have seen volatility yet, give it 2 months. We should be fired up and making huge swings on the whims of worldwide financial implosion.

The true scope of this implosion cannot be summed up in a few words. It is all encompassing.

1584$ for gold was exponential support. That means we will be seeing much more rapid upside days on the holding of 1584 here.....

Things are definitely more than interesting these days.

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