Oink Oink

Mon, Oct 3, 2011 - 5:55pm

No, I'm not talking about this stuff:


The Turd has a little Danish blood in him. At Christmas, my Danish relatives would serve "braised red cabbage", as if it was some kind of holiday treat. They called it "Oink Oink". Looking at it now turns my stomach just as much as the real thing did 30 years ago.

Equally nauseating is this next picture of "Oink Oink". It's a weekly chart of our friend, Pigatha Christie.


Why is this so sickening you ask?

July 2008: Just as the POSX looked prime for a collapse, the "Great Financial Crisis" emerges to allow The Pig to catch a safe haven bid. It proceeds to rally 25% over the next 4 months.

December 2009: After double-topping in early 2009 near 90, The Pig has collapsed to near 74. All seems lost. Commentators are calling for the imminent end of the dollar and speculation arises that the dollar will soon replace the yen as the funding vehicle for the "carry trade". NOPE, and you can thank MOPE. A relentless media barrage develops that trumpets "green shoots" and the coming "recovery summer" of 2010. Shorts are squeezed in a 20% rally that extends back to the early 2009 highs of 89-90 on the POSX.

August 2011: Just when all looked lost and a re-test of the March 2008 lows seemed a virtual certainty, The PIG magically reverses and has now rallied 10% in just 6 weeks on renewed concerns for the longevity of the euro.

Now, you can say that July 2008 was a natural market reaction to the enormous uncertainty created by the financial crisis. OK, I'll give you that one. But the next two are clearly manipulated events, manufactured and timed to create a false sense of demand for the dollar, thereby "buying time" in an attempt to postpone indefinitely The Pig's eventual trip to the slaughterhouse. Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe this is all just a coincidence...

A couple of other things. First, I received via email this latest missive from Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in England. It covers many of the subjects we discuss here so I thought you'd get a kick out of reading it.

Silver Gorillas CFTC Etc-1

Lastly, just a reminder. When participating in this site, you are a part of a public forum in the public domain. Though we all enjoy the freedom to speak and freely associate with each other, you should be well aware that there likely be, from time to time, Orwellian monitors of this site and others. I do not believe that is something of which we should be fearful but it is definitely something of which we should always be mindful.

Have a great evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


tpbeta · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:02pm

Isn't it about QE

When Bernanke announces QE the POSX goes down and PMs go up. When he doesn't the opposite happens. Isn't it that simple?

Two firsts in one day. That makes me look a bit sad I fear. Just co-incidence, honest.

kiteline · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:08pm

2nd isn't so bad

just figured i would do it...

timpa · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:09pm

what's new


Brotha Bob · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:22pm



Tom L · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:26pm

Piggies going Oink Oink

And with this rally in Pigitha Turd, what is interesting is how strong gold is in the face of it. There's been no breakdown of the primary trend like there was in 2008 with the Lehamn flush, the bottom of which created the current primary channel. The overnight markets have opened and we are pushing up against the $1665 level with the USDX over 80. Moving up in tandem as the only two safe-haven plays. If silver de-couples from Oil and DrC that would be a vote in its favor for 2nd'ary safe-haven asset as well.

We shouldn't be surprised that the Fed moved to defend the dollar as much as they have. Bernanke's tenure at the Fed has been one of moving the size of the Fed's balance sheet up in stages, like a swiss stair. He took over, held the AMB flat for 6 months and imploded the housing market a year later. Then in response we get TARP and a massive expansion of the AMB after which he holds it flat for most of 2009 then does QE1, then flat for most of 2010 then QE2... and we're into month 4 of the latest stair step up.

The AMB is the best of the monetary stats in predicting price inflation of commodities. It has always been this way. So, that's where we are now, a period of flat prices because of a rise in savings (spiking M1 and M2) while no new loan credit can be created because it's not demanded. Credit is being extinguished faster than it's being created so those marginal pricing bids no longer exist.

At this point it is obvious that the Fed is starving the banks to the point of extinction... AMB flat, credit flat/negative, M1, M2, MZM beginning to roll over after spiking.... There will be deflation only if the Fed allows it, ie. if it shrinks its balance sheet. All other discussion of deflation is moronic, please stop engaging in it. Deflation exists as a consequence of deliberate action on the part of the Fed's BoG, as does inflation. All else is just so much hand waving.

The question I have is this:

1) Is Bernanke is holding the AMB flat to get a washout in Commodity prices for political reasons or practical ones? In other words, has he decided to let a couple of the big Money Center Banks go in order to pop commodity prices to spur growth in what's left of the domestic economy? 


2) Is he doing this to put a bid under the USD while Europe implodes so that there is a rational means by which the capital flows can be absorbed (b/c Gold can't handle it) before having to set off on another round of balance sheet expansion?

If he chooses #1 the stock markets and the commodities crash, the banks fail and the dollar is saved.

If he chooses #2 the stock markets and commodities meander, gold trades based on the Asian demand and eventually everything goes to the moon at different rates of ascent, gold going up the fastest once the AMB expansion is underway.

Tonight's action will be telling. If the asian markets bid gold over $1680 then London/NY will have their work cut out for them in the morning to hold the line and it's still just a matter of time.


Tesla · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:27pm

Gold OI (-5,605 total contracts) still draining the pool?

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)Trade Date: 10/03/2011
Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated
Prior Day
Open Interest
OCT 11 1627.8 1660.8 1627.6 - +35.6 1656.0 101 3,715
NOV 11 1627.5 1664.0 1627.5 - +35.3 1657.1 585 200
DEC 11 1625.1 1667.0 1620.0 1661.0 +35.4 1657.7 139,531 279,172
FEB 12 1625.5 1668.5 1622.2A - +35.4 1659.6 1,586 43,478
APR 12 1633.5 1667.3 1633.5 - +35.5 1661.1 531 10,577
JUN 12 1631.0 1667.3 1631.0 - +35.6 1662.8 228 16,794
AUG 12 1638.0 1668.4 1638.0 - +35.5 1664.6 83 7,033
OCT 12 1635.7 1657.0B 1634.6 - +35.6 1666.6 14 4,579
DEC 12 1638.7 1674.2 1638.7 - +35.7 1668.9 227 15,592
FEB 13 1672.4 1672.4 1672.4 - +35.7 1671.0 102 3,390
APR 13 1672.0 1672.0 1672.0 - +35.6 1673.4 1 328
JUN 13 - - - - +35.5 1676.2 385 12,971
AUG 13 - - - - +35.3 1679.2 - -
DEC 13 - 1660.0B - - +35.7 1686.0 421 12,445
JUN 14 - - - - +35.6 1698.2 - 7,463
DEC 14 - - - - +35.4 1712.3 305 8,726
JUN 15 - - - - +35.1 1729.2 45 5,931
DEC 15 - - - - +34.8 1748.1 31 6,068
JUN 16 - - - - +34.3 1769.1 - 116
DEC 16 - - - - +33.3 1791.1 1 1,259
JUN 17 - - - - +33.3 1817.6 - 37
Total             144,177 439,874

Last Updated 10/03/2011 04:30 PM
Tesla · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:38pm

Silver OI (-226 total contracts) actually +221*

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 10/03/2011










Prior Day

Open Interest

OCT 11









NOV 11









DEC 11









JAN 12









MAR 12









MAY 12









JLY 12









SEP 12









DEC 12









JAN 13









MAR 13









MAY 13









JLY 13









DEC 13









JLY 14









DEC 14









JLY 15









DEC 15









JLY 16












-226 *after delivery of 445 contracts - this is a net gain of 221 contracts

ScottJ · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:39pm

Today's Behavioral Finance - Deceive Weakness in Gold/Silver

Today's perception management:

Have gold and silver rise early in the morning and slowly fall all day, especially into the close. The drops were conjoined exactly at the same time as equity market pressure, to disguise the strength of gold/silver safehaven, and trigger stops of people trying to catch the bottom but trade tight. Classic lower lows for short term trend but higher lows on longer term trend to close the day. 

With all of the pessimism in silver and gold today, one may have forgotten that they ended up green on a day where the safehaven trade was activated on day 1 of this equity collapse.

They aren't going lower and staying there.... and all of this nonsense about gold going to 2000$+ while silver stays in the 30's is nothing more than the successful Public Relations attack they did on silver as money. You think dealers would not start raising premiums? The demand will call for it... or make it so itself.

You think if gold was at 2000$, silver would stay at 30-35$ range? They will not give the wildcard achilles heel of the unbacked fiat monetary system (silver) a chance to be amassed by the ever-increasing public. The idea is to keep the most amount of physical silver out of the hands of the public, not force mass losses and lose accreditation as a pricing mechanism.... the paper losses are just a warning to those who are playing to stay out or be aware.

They are not trying to solely cause paper losses for your portfolio. This is merely business to them... they could care less if you profit or lose, for they have their own agenda in mind.

The silver trade has begun, you cannot put it back in the bag.

Volatility is about to be unleashed. The markets are the central bankers way of telling us where we are in their plan to move to a new currency. If you think you have seen volatility yet, give it 2 months. We should be fired up and making huge swings on the whims of worldwide financial implosion.

The true scope of this implosion cannot be summed up in a few words. It is all encompassing.

1584$ for gold was exponential support. That means we will be seeing much more rapid upside days on the holding of 1584 here.....

Things are definitely more than interesting these days.

TruthPreeminent · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:45pm

Silver Thoughts

Gold and silver held up very well today in spite of the dollar being up and the Dow down significantly. Very encouraging. On the other hand one day does not a trend make. Going to keep some dry powder (not much now) just for the Lehman type worst case scenario. Hope we only retest the 26 if that happens. If today alone was any indication, even a tank-job by the Dow wouldn't pull the metals down much. ( A retest of the 26) But again, too early to tell. I'm going to be patient. (Or at least try.) The worst thing would be for silver to ride to 35 and just when everyone thinks we're out of the woods and begins to chase it, they tank it again. Just saying. After two tank-jobs anyone who thinks they have this figured out is deluding him or herself. Who really thought silver would go down to 32 after it hit almost 50? I never in a million years thought that once we busted up over 40 for the second time that we would go below 30. All I'm saying is that psychologically one has to be prepared not to get thrown off the silver bull in light of the fact that anything, and I mean ANYTHING, can happen. We have a very smart group here so let's help each other out. Hang in their everyone! Have a good night.

RedRover · Oct 3, 2011 - 6:56pm

Silver Volatility

Good post. I decided, I'm taking a break from my brokerage account.
Created a projection chart using excel, relative to my position. Printed
it out.. should I need to look at it, to get my bearings, etc.

re: the silver volatility

I tell myself 'even the ones that know, don't know'.

Today, limited myself to the kitco app, tfmetals & some youtubes.
What I like about the blogs, is the condensed information in shorter
amount of time & I slightly deviate for new sources, each time.

Charts for instance provide wonderful insight. Love the charts. Props to
Turd the chillaxed attitude towards all the BS comments, lately (yikes).
There's so many h8rs out there, all of a sudden. Cheers, everyone!

p.s. here's an Ira Epstein mid-day metals report (just because).
I forward it to :35 seconds, to get pass all the legal speak @ first.
Silver Talk is @ 5:49.


Bezalel · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:01pm

@Tom L

Tom L, you wrote: "If he chooses #1 the stock markets and the commodities crash, the banks fail and the dollar is saved. If he chooses #2 the stock markets and commodities meander, gold trades based on the Asian demand and eventually everything goes to the moon at different rates of ascent, gold going up the fastest once the AMB expansion is underway."

It seems that Ben has already selected #1? Commodities have crashed and the gold and silver miners have crashed harder. Maybe after Ben brings down the miners to 10% of their highs, he'll then shift to #2, allowing the miners to recover to 50% of their highs. The dollar will then pretty much end up where it is now, relative to gold and silver, but people who own the miners or other stocks will be in bad shape.

¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:04pm

Thanks TF...This one's for you

full screen

Video unavailable
Mikey · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:06pm

Helluva guitar rip. Hughue

Helluva guitar rip. Hughie Thomasson from the Outlaws playing intro to Sweet Home Alabama. Turn em up.

Hughie Thomasson Intro To Sweet Home Alabama

Watch the last 20 secs.

"Our cause will assert itself at another time in another place"

Jefferson Davis

Tom L · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:18pm


I don't consider this move down a crash. The the HUI is down 20% from 640 to 520. Gold is down about the same. During the aftermath of the Lehman flush gold dropped almost 40% from $1033 (Santa's number to the decimal point) to under $700. Silver crashed from $21 to $8. The miners all lost between 70 and 90%.

The stock markets have not crashed... they have moved down to longer-term support but the primary trends are still in place. The HUI has not violated 511 which was the blast off point for the last rally starting in the summer. That. is. not. a. crash.

A crash is another 30-50% from here. Right now we're just looking at the equivalent of a weekend sale.


exiledbear · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:20pm

Re: OI numbers in the gold futures

Will the last person exiting the gold futures market please turn out the lights?

Bull markets always do this - beat your hands black and blue to convince you to let go before moving up again. Looks like a lot of people are giving up and letting go. Mark my words here and now.

6 months, a year from now - they will regret it.

bensgone · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:20pm

Reply to FFF

FFF--Correct...I am an old guy and not do have an IT background

I am an old guy too and have no IT background but love computers and the internet and have taught myself how to fix my own computer. 

Care to be helpful and let me know where I might find such a fix.

About five posts up from your response to mine, is a website provided by a helpful member which I hope fixes your problem.

FFF: I have been told by many different IT people, that Windows will not allow a full system backup...only the data and files. Are they wrong? Any help greatly appreciated!

There are many pieces of software out there that make an exact copy of your hard drive. I use Acronis. Most computer repair places want your money and they will lie to you to get it. They are often dumb as dirt. I hope this helps you FFF, because that is my intent and the intentions of most of our great members.

¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:22pm

Those strange currency moves that made little sense.....

Pound plunge blamed on 'fat fingers'

Computers aren't supposed to make mistakes. And they certainly aren't supposed to have fat fingers.

One Pound coins Sterling collapsed from just under $1.5580 to just over $1.5480 in a matter of seconds Photo: Alamy Philiip Aldrick

7:04PM BST 03 Oct 2011

Comments29 Comments

But on Monday currency traders were gossiping about a fat-fingered algorithm that caused the pound to crash by almost a cent after a computer mistakenly pushed through a large sell order.

Sterling collapsed from just under $1.5580 to just over $1.5480 in a matter of seconds at almost exactly the same moment that surprisingly strong manufacturing data were released at 9.30am on Monday. The pound immediately rebounded to $1.5550, suggesting somebody took a bath on the hasty transaction.

"It was a miss-hit on cable and we hear an algo just stuck an offer at $1.5480 in the machine which should have been $1.5580," one trader said. Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, added: "The market legend is that it did spike down due to some sort of mis-trade. Usually when something like that happens, everyone blames an algorithm or a hedge fund."

Somehow it seems, in the trading world, a fat finger can be judged to belong to an algorithm rather than the programmer who built the algorithm...


Pablo · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:25pm

Gold on my screen is $1666.66

I hate it when that happens. Kinda freaks me out.

jaynutter · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:25pm

Hui Down..

Usually when hui is down, its a sign silver and gold are headed lower. Lets see where this goes. Hopefully another stacking chance for my silver fortress comes soon!

¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:26pm



Bay of Pigs · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:27pm

Oink Oink

Someone call? ;o)

Wow. Check this out.

More physical gold to serve as collateral: CME

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- CME Group said its customers will be able to post more physical gold as performance bond collateral, raising the amount to $500 million from $200 million as of the close of business on Monday.


¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:28pm

No more Greece concessions, warns eurozone finance ministers

No more Greece concessions, warns eurozone finance ministers

Eurozone finance ministers have told Greece that the debt-crippled nation will be granted no further concessions despite Athens' admission that it will miss its deficit reduction targets.

A flash of lightning illuminates the sky over the 2,500-year-old Ancient Parthenon temple, on the Acropolis hill during heavy rainfall in Athens Greece has requested quick payment of the instalment by warning it will run out of money within a fortnight Photo: AP Bruno Waterfield

9:06PM BST 03 Oct 2011

Comments24 Comments

The warning set up a fresh showdown between the "troika" of the European Union (EU), European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Greek government over the payment of a vital €8bn (£6.8bn) bail-out instalment, and sparked a sharp sell-off in European and global markets.

Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek finance minister, claimed that the "troika" had accepted that Greece would fall €4.3bn short of its debt target because austerity had plunged the country into a deeper recession than expected. But eurozone ministers, while conceding that Greece is struggling with recession, made it clear they will not concede on EU-IMF demands for deeper cuts to Greek spending before handing over the next rescue tranche.

"There will be no concessions. There is no mid-October deadline," said a finance ministry official. "They have to make it possible for us to support them."..


GoldMania3000 · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:32pm
¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:33pm

Karzai talking tough/Following U.S. lead against Pakistan

Turban bomber who killed former Afghan president 'was from Pakistan'

The suicide bomber who killed Afghanistan's former president and peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani was Pakistani, according to the Afghan government, heaping more pressure on Islamabad to tackle insurgents headquartered in its territory.

Afghan soldiers carry wreaths and portrait of Burhanuddin Rabbani, the slain former President and head of High Peace Council, during a funeral ceremony at the Presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan: Thousands bury Burhanuddin Rabbani Afghan soldiers carry a portrait of Burhanuddin Rabbani during a funeral ceremony in Kabul Photo: EPA Rob Crilly

5:43PM BST 02 Oct 2011

Comments22 Comments

Prof Rabbani's assassination last month derailed Kabul's attempts to bring the Taliban into negotiations and immediately provoked Afghan accusations that Pakistan was to blame as it sought to influence any political settlement.

However, on Sunday the Pakistani government denied the allegations as "baseless".

Hours earlier a statement released by the presidential palace in Kabul said new evidence showed that Rabbani's murder was plotted in Quetta, a city in southern Pakistan where the Taliban is believed to be headquartered.

Rabbani, chairman of President Hamid Karzai's High Peace Council, was killed by a bomb hidden in an assassin's turban at his home in Kabul on September 20. The killer had claimed to be a Taliban peace emissary.

On Sunday, a spokesman for President Karzai said he was reviewing his peace strategy in light of the killing, which had made it increasingly difficult to entertain the idea of meeting Taliban figures...


¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:36pm

Obama hates Isreal and Netanyahu for sure ...imo

Israel partly to blame for growing isolation in region, says US

The United States has delivered an unusually blunt critique of Israel's foreign policy by claiming that Benjamin Netanyahu's government was partly responsible for its growing isolation in the region.

Israel partly to blame for growing isolation in region, says US Leon Panetta speaks at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv Photo: REUTERS Adrian Blomfield

3:52PM BST 03 Oct 2011

Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, suggested that Israel carried a portion of the blame for its deteriorating relationship with Turkey and Egypt, two vital allies whose ties with the Jewish state have become increasingly strained in recent weeks.

Speaking as he arrived in the Holy Land on Monday for talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, Mr Panetta gave warning that Israel's dependence on its military dominance was not a sufficient safeguard given the dramatic shifts in the Middle East's political landscape in the wake of the Arab Spring...


thetumta · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:38pm

Danish Cusine

If you're at a decent Danish Hotel(breakfast included) you will find the true meaning of pork. I've never consumed so many wonderful varieties of pork(especially bacons) and yes, I'm a pig about it. The breakfast buffet just goes on and on. Definite recipe for a heart attack if your a hound. It's the Amsterdam of pork. Fair share of European Right, Right-Wingers, but we can all can get along over good bacon. What a site, silver and pork!

Hej! Mark

¤ · Oct 3, 2011 - 7:40pm

Egypt: Pillar of MENA stability or a peek into the future?

  • OCTOBER 4, 2011

Pact by Egypt's Parties Angers Voters, Aids Military


CAIRO—A deal in which the leaders of Egypt's most powerful political parties pledged "full support" for the ruling military council has strengthened the military's hand and angered voters, in a sign of disarray in the democratic process less than two months before elections.

A political bloc dominated by the party of the Muslim Brotherhood, went into a weekend meeting with the military threatening to boycott polls unless the interim rulers gave them greater control over the political transition...


(DPH: Don't worry, it's Arab democracy is what the State Dept. will tell you.)

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