Revisiting Max Q

305
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 - 9:24am

Well, this is certainly shaping up to be an interesting week. The banks are still intent upon pressing the metals lower but he fundamentals, particularly the latest CoT report, remain decidedly bullish. Technically, as we head through the week, the trendline off the lows will begin to encounter the area of Max Q. Yes, it's going to be a very interesting week, indeed.

First of all, you should revisit the "Max Q" post from last week as the numbers are still valid.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2522/max-q

Now look at the updated charts below.

It's still too early for any major predictions and forecasts but this week will go a long ways toward building some confidence. I am still, of course, extremely excited about the Q4, 2012, 2013, 2014...prospects for the precious metals. I'm not ready to call a bottom here, however. Yet. Let's see how this week plays out. TF

p.s. And if you want to start the week on a happy note <thick sarc ON>, take a few minutes to read this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/prophets-doom-12-shocking-quotes-insiders-about-horrific-economic-crisis-almost-here

Yes, it's going to be a very interesting week...

About the Author

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  305 Comments

Tom L
Oct 3, 2011 - 11:51am

DrC and WTIC

is putting in a Falling Wedge and is deeply, deeply oversold. The Risk-off trade has been completely overdone and today's rally is impressive. As for Oil, it is closed in on the July low and reversed... for how long and will it hold that?

If you're thinking QEIII $3.00 Cu is a good setup for it. There's some room for the USD to run now that it's above 79.70 (again Dec price) but it has to push towards 81 quickly to not be putting in an even-shallower rising wedge.

Ta,

ross1119
Oct 3, 2011 - 11:54am

Reasons why I am going long paper silver today

SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. CFTC Commitment of Traders *Combined Futures and Options* September 30, 2011
Reportable Positions as of 09/27/2011 Non- Reportable Positions
Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short Long Short
25,509 5,615 54,745 52,423 82,671 132,677 143,030 24,177 13,823
Changes from last report - Change in Open Interest: -10,730
-8,872 36 1,255 6,952 -11,571 -664 -10,279 -10,066 -451
Percent of Open Interest for each category of traders
16.3 3.6 34.9 33.4 52.7 84.6 91.2 15.4 8.8
Number of traders in each category; Total Traders: 180
88 34 77 44 46 161 132
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) Open Interest: 156,853
  • The September 30th COT report shows a huge decline in Commercial Bank short positions. Since the bull market in Silver began this is the lowest number of short positions.
  • Weak hands have been smashed and washed out (sentiment extreme low), spec long positions are at very low levels
  • On Friday, the miners were positive while metals lagged (follow through today)
  • extreme low on MACD, far greater than 2008 bottom
  • obvious hammer reversal at 26 level, and gold holding and reversing on heavy volume at the 200dma
  • ​Very large position by commercial banks buying the euro and shorting USD, they are betting European banks are saved, euro saved. For them to be bailed out or saved need QE, bullish for gold and silver.
Tom L
Oct 3, 2011 - 11:56am

On a happy note

we sold our first goat this morning. Teeny Bit is going to a family in Ocala as a pet as she comes from a mom who we took as a favor to the breeder and never intended to do anything with her kids other than eat them or sell them as pets. Not breeding quality animals.

Her parents are two of the nicest goats you'll ever meet so she should make some children every happy. I expect her to get very fat.

Now, if we could move a couple of our young bucklings... that would be a great day.

Ta,

Perfidious Albion
Oct 3, 2011 - 11:57am

More light hearted stuff..

Still waiting for silver to break.


Oct 3, 2011 - 11:57am

Phx Capital research?

Does anyone here subscribe to Graham Summers Rapid Fire Options Alert?

Has it been worth the $$ for you?

Shill
Oct 3, 2011 - 11:58am

Census Bureau reported that

Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in August:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during August 2011 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $799.1 billion, 1.4 percent (±2.1%)* above the revised July estimate of $788.3 billion. The August figure is 0.9 percent (±1.9%)* above the August 2010 estimate of $791.7 billion.
ReachWest
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:01pm

Choked

I just about choked on a bite of an apple when I scrolled down to that shower scene photo from Shill. Damn - that is nasty.

ScottJ
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:03pm

@TomL, Thanks

I see your points, you are well seasoned, and make a strong case.

Maybe my timing is off by a week or two on the dollar rising above 80. I am trying to base my thoughts on the stock market falling soon... but if the dollar was to retreat a little bit, which seems appropriate for the "trade," then the equity market could plunker along for a little while longer.

However, if it fails to complete the obvious head and shoulders formation, does that imply it will move to the upside for now? I guess the stock market could tank "when least expected" in a big red candle fashion out of the blue.... may be more appropriate for such a case. We will have to see.

I think I will just back off of trying to look at everything in the market. The truth is I really don't care (I am not day-trading anything), but it is interesting to try to "figure out" what is going on. I just want to swing trade my miners and watch gold/silver rise while trying to figure out the workings of these "markets."

I think I will go back to looking at the spiritual revolution banter for now. The cyclicalness of my interest of market movements is peaking right now, as I am way too confident in the short term (even though I still think gold/silver have either bottomed or have one more retest of lows... but the $HUI looking pretty strong... best just to wait and see and judge by the moment), thus I am probably wrong about the timing of certain movements.

Appreciate the banter,

Scott

Shill
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:05pm

Check it out folks..Just a

Check it out folks..Just a comparison.

BAC Volume 70.32m

SPY Volume 130.67m

Tom L
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:11pm

@ScottJ

I'm not convinced the DOW has put in an 'obvious' H&S pattern. It's certainly there, but it also just looks like a rangebound market bouncing around waiting for a sign with a strong double-bottom in evidence.

I posted the huge reverse H&S pattern on EXK back in late august that had the boards all atwitter and it completed. Meaning the stock should have gone to $17.50.

Last trade $9.37.

If it's QEIII cover they want, then a bottoming general stock market is a good launching pad for it. Bernanke is not going to hold the AMB flat for much longer... he's got flat-lined velocity numbers, sky-rocketing M1, M2 and MZM and a ton of money stuffing the banks with bogus reserves and ZIRP. With BAC and JPM deteriorating the money printing will have to commence above-board soon.... this will light a fire in the DOW and the double bottom will act as the springboard.

Don't forget that that is a possibility.

Ta,

johnboatcat
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:13pm

DPH - I was going to PM this to you

but then thought it might help some others here.

How to buy firearms and potentially save yourself $100's of dollars.

First go to Gun Brokers site : https://www.gunbroker.com/FFL/DealerNetwork.aspx and enter your zip to find someone with a FFL in your area. They can receive firearms through the mail for you for a fee. Their fees are posted on the search results page. Usually $25 to $30. Believe it or not many of your local gun shops will handle this for you. Contact the FFL and make sure it is ok for you to use their services.

Then do a search on Gun Broker or another auction site for your gun. You can also buy from many distributers and on-line dealers. When you purchase you simply give the vendor the FFL's info and they ship the firearm to them. They will handle all the required paper work for transfere.

I saved several hundred dollars on my new Saiga shotgun this way and actually bought it for $200.00 less than some used ones for sale in my area. The FFL I contacted also asked if it was ok for him to check out his sources and I said yes. He came back with an out the door price $25. less than I had found.

Some Auctions:

https://www.gunbroker.com/User/ToolsForBuyers.aspx

https://www.gunsamerica.com/

Lots more. Just do a search. Search also for your specific firearm with for sale behind it: EX: Ruger Model XXXX for sale, to find distributors.

StartThePurple
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:14pm

Bank of America Online Issues

This was referred to in Zerohedge as well:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-locks-out-its-online-clients...

Full disclosure - I do bank at BofA (was my first bank account when I was a kid). They also hold my mortgage and so it's been a convenience to bank with them. I'm aware of the potential hypocrisy of being a Turdite as well as a Bank of America customer, but hey, no one's perfect.

I've been trying to transfer some money between accounts. Not only is the home page down, but even when I am able to access the online banking page, nothing works. I can't transfer or perform any action on my account. Very strange.

I have an IT background and for BofA's homepage to be down since Friday, that's a pretty big deal. I imagine there are heads rolling (at least in their IT department right now) or could they be doing this on purpose to limit access? I don't think that's the case, but I am going down to my local branch later this morning to do in person what I should be able to do online.

stoneeh
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:15pm

Neh, just saying you're

Neh, just saying you're copying my stuff. And don't act like you didn't know where I'm from, I've been posting on TFMetals since posts here would usually get 30-50 replies at the most. You know me perfectly well.

Edit: excuse me if I don't reply to what comes next, not easy to read 500 comments a day and most of the content nowadays is terrible anyway.

Shill
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:16pm

BAC is taking a dirt nap

BAC is taking a dirt nap folks.

Last of 5.98 and dropping...I offered a Trade of BAC Nov Puts over the weekend.


Oct 3, 2011 - 12:17pm

Attention DHS:

Since I know you are monitoring this site, and all who post here, kindly note the following for my file:

Shooting Classes:

I have just completed the basic [and some of the advanced, but not all yet] series of firearms' shooting classes for all categories of firearms offered by my local training facility: semi-automatic handguns; revolvers; basic and advanced carbine and night ops; basis and advanced shotgun and night ops; live fire entry; and concealed carry basic and advanced scenarios.

Since I have developed some mastery, the course instructors have suggested that I continue along the training and obtain my instructor certification coursework. That is a great idea.

Thus, when I complete the instructor coursework in the next 6-8 months, I will be opening a FREE firearm training class for soccer moms and others interested in acquiring basic firearm skills and mindset. I would never have done this except for the constant govt intrusion being foisted on the populace in increasing amounts on a daily basis. For example, do you really think we live in a free society when I have to strip off my shoes, belt, jacket and show a GOVERNMENT-ISSUED identification card JUST TO ENTER A FEDERAL BANKRUPTCY COURTHOUSE?

When it is over 100 degrees outside, and when the parking lot is over a quarter mile away, and I choose to bring a water bottle with me to enter the courthouse, and the govt thugs guarding the entrance to the bankruptcy court banish me from entry because I want to take my nice, cold water inside, are you still going to tell me that this is a free country?

Well, with all due respect, go fuc- yourself! You want my Au, Ag, Pb? Come get 'em, but there will be headlines. I have reached the point where Constitutional measures must be taken. I just do not see how it is a legitimate form of government that I must appear in court or face penalties, but at the same time, I cannot enter court without being treated as a criminal. This classification certainly does not satisfy the 4th Amendment, not even after the twisted "opinions" issued after the wholesale government takeover under the guise of homeland security. You can scoff, but change is coming. This will be the Constitutional test of a lifetime, and thank you kindly for allowing me the opportunity to choose wisely.

You might also wish to note for my file that I have been acquiring ammunition in all shapes and sizes. Heck, since your govt agents over at the CFTC have gone AWOL, I have been able to keep my sanity by increasing the Pb stack, so be sure to tell them thanks for me!

p.s.: Turd: as always, thank you from the bottom of my heart for all you do. Please keep it up.

Bay of Pigs
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:20pm

StartThePurple

You need to find a new bank asap, IMO.

They are going down.

Harald
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:24pm

BAC is $5.98 from zero, five

BAC is $5.98 from zero, five years ago this was a $50.00 stock. This is the equivalent of gold going to $160.00 or silver to $3.00. Can anyone imagine what the MSM would be saying if silver was at 3 bux.

ScottJ
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:26pm

Zerohedge; Evidence of a Bear Market

Just saw this article on zerohedge. Thought I'd post the graphs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-technical-evidence-bear-market...

The daily chart:

And the weekly:

johnboatcat
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:26pm

Hey California Lawyer what a great way to

meet chicks!

"I will be opening a FREE firearm training class for soccer moms... "

Beats the ol' grocery store gig by a mile!

HeNateMe
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:27pm

Bank of America

I too bank with them. Have ever since 1995. And they hold my mortgage too. I am taking off from work in 15 minutes to open an account at a local bank. Moving my money today! I have been meaning to do this for months but got lazy. Now, seeing that their website has been down for days and their stock is is dipping below six I have had enough.

HeNateMe

Dr G
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:27pm

@Harald, they'd be saying

@Harald, they'd be saying that at $3 silver is in a bubble. Seriously. Silver at any price is a bubble, they say.

Tom L
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:27pm

@SHILL BAC

That violation of the $6.00 double bottom low is telling. I just bought a couple of $4 Nov Puts. Thanks for the tip, why I wasn't looking at that I have no idea.... me and my gold tunnel vision.

Ta,

Dr G
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:28pm

Also nice to see Silver back

Also nice to see Silver back up over JPMs stock price.

stoneeh
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:32pm

And from where would I be

And from where would I be copying "your stuff"?

Whatever. Just try to add value to the site and not be hostile, OK?

Tyler
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:32pm

BAC Perfect Storm?

It is interesting with the timing of online banking being down and the debit card charge scheme happening at the same time. I even saw a segment MSM about how the charge is ridiculous. A bit strange - hard to know what is planned and what is not.

I also went downtown to the protests last weekend on Wall Street and everything was pretty tame. In my opinion, a long way to go before anything happens there. Very tame and not many people.

vitorio
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:32pm

some time ago ZH reported

some time ago ZH reported Germany And Slovenia are two obstacles in expanding the EFSF. Germany because of well known reasons, Slovenia because government did not survive the vote of confidence in parlament and slovenians are now all waiting for elections in december. Well just to make sure EFSF $ fund increase would not be stuck because of Slovenia, in last days/ours, before president declared our parlament is technically responsible only for daily operations, without any new important strategic decisions, parlament voted and accepted increas of government guarantees of cca 2 billion EUR for EFSF purposes. Politicians just increasd debt for cca 1500eur/slovenian and I feel stupid for that. But on the other side I sleep better as I'm stacking gold and in my mind our incompetent politicians decision is just another puzzle in QE story and precious metals prices will go UP, UP, UP....

bensgone
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:33pm

The President of the United States in now officially a murdering

The President can now murder American citizens , without a trial, and with no evidence of any kind. This is official government policy carried out through the CIA. This is so evil, so corrupt, and so extremely Un-American, that I can scarcely believe that we have reached this point in our history. However, this is not unprecedented.

Long before the assassination of Anwar al-Awlaki by the CIA (reputed to have been in the CIA himself), the American psyche was already softened up to accept the outright murder of Americans by Government Officials. Two clear examples come to mind; one was Ruby Ridge, the other was Waco. If we do not stand up now and vehemently protest this kind of presidential power, we have become just as bad as Stalin’s Russia and Mao’s China, not to mention Hitler’s Germany. Everyone of us should be extremely fearful that this kind of evil has become official policy of the United States. The President is now a dictator of the worst kind.

Oh, but when Bush was doing things just as bad, such as secret torture, illegal spying and wiretaps on U.S. citizens, renditions, and the complete suspension of Habeas Corpus, Obama strongly objected. But now, that he has the same powers that Bush gave himself, Obama is silent as is the mainstream media. Obama has not seen fit to repeal any of the unconstitutional powers Bush had acquired under the “War Powers Act”. He has only increased the illegal and unauthorized grab for even more unconstitutional powers.

Make no mistake, there is not one iota of essential difference between these two presidents, nor their respective political parties. It is clearly time to step outside this false left/right paradigm, as we are in extreme danger with the advent of this horrible evil new presidential power to murder at will (they call assassination) Americans whom he simply suspect are terrorist.

I want to thank Turd profusely for taking the very bold step of opening up this forum to political debate and discussion. We are living in such dangerous times that this decision was well justified and timely. With these new broad sweeping powers the Federal government has taken on, we must go beyond just talking about PMs to protect ourselves.

backseatdriver
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:34pm

Dr Jerome

In regards to Graham Summers, I dont know. I asked the same thing over on the Options/Futures weeks ago and got no responses or takers. I had to unsubscribe to his "next leg down" emails that come in mass. It just gets tiresome to hear the world is ending everyday, and he loses credibility with his message. I agree with many of his points and I think he shows some insight into some things but I also would like to here from a subscriber as well.

BSD

¤
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:36pm

johnboatcat

Thanks!

shill....pretty funny and random. I laughed so hard my eyes watered. Thanks, needed that.

SilverWealth
Oct 3, 2011 - 12:40pm

Jpm Gottleib and others

Of course traders at JPM read this site. I would assume it. This is all an info war now. Excuse my paranoia. They are 80% of the future's market in Silver. They see somebody post and short term chart on Silver with trendlines and breakpoints and they see their sharkmeat for the day or week.

The Ruprecht videos are fun but they are also tugging on SuperMan's cape and they posit a very unrealistic outlook on final outcomes.

JPM wins regardless hands down. Fantasies about 'winning' or 'defeating' the big bad banksters are just that, fantasies.

And incidentally, JPM may be short silver but they are long too. They own a ton of physical Silver. I won't doubt that for a second.

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