Forging Ahead

Sun, Oct 2, 2011 - 1:11pm

It is my sincere hope that we all learned something from the last blog post. You may have asked yourself, "why did Turd allow such a controversial topic to be the main thread for over 48 hours?". I'll tell you why. It was for a few, very simple reasons.

We are rapidly approaching a time when you must know what you believe in. You will soon be tested and forced to decide if, how and when you are going to act and react. The previous thread was part of a larger plan to get you thinking. If you enter the days ahead clinging to traditional notions without thoroughly considering why you believe such things, you risk becoming a rudderless ship, loose and unstable upon the waves of change.

Thank you all for keeping the discussion far more civil than similar discussions of similar topics elsewhere on the internet. We all have much to learn and we must all learn from each other. Disrespect and name-calling serves no purpose. To learn, grow, prepare and survive, we must be willing to consider the equally valid points-of-view of others. For example, I have never been the victim of police brutality. However, after reading the comments of "kumanari" on Friday, I can certainly see how having some experience in this area might permanently change your point of view. Finding common ground through diversity of opinion provides a strong foundation for the days ahead. And, if this site is to survive, our foundation must be substantial.

All of this above applies to me, too. I'm the one who is ultimately responsible for growing this site. Therefore, for a strong foundation, I must be honest and forthright at all times. There will certainly always be issues where we disagree but it is incumbent upon me to tell you where I stand. If I try to hide my positions or obfuscate when challenged, the site will fail.

So, expect more "controversial" threads in the days and weeks to come. Again, not because I'm trying to enforce my ideas and ideologies upon anyone. If you and I are going to be leaders of our families and friends, you must know what you believe in. The world is entering a period of darkness where only forged and tested beliefs can safely guide you to the other side.

Along, those lines, do you believe in gold and silver or not? I ask this because right now is one of those times when you have to know for sure. You are being tested. Sophomoric financial analysts and writers are trying desperately to convince you to sell your metal. Planted trolls are registering here in greater numbers in a coordinated effort to confuse and scare you. So, do you believe them? Do you know what you know because you've tested your ideas and found them to be correct? Has this given you a strong foundation or are you quivering? Are you ready to acquire more metal at $25 and $1500 or are you so uncertain in your beliefs that you'd prefer the relative "safety" of rejoining the flock, just as it heads into the pen for slaughter? Physical demand is extremely high and the Commitment of Traders report has rarely looked more bullish but the manipulated, paper price is low and falling. What do you believe? How are you going to act?

Finally, I'd like to thank Stephanie and all of the moderators for their extraordinary efforts in keeping the previous thread relatively harmonious and on-topic. Thanks, too, to all of the Turdites for respecting their efforts and for making terrific contributions to the cause. Never forget, we are all here to help each other and learn from each other. We must continue this effort while we can.

I hope you're ready for another crazy and unpredictable week that will culminate with the September BLSBS on Friday. After a brief hiatus, expect a return of the recent volatility. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 2, 2011 - 1:24pm


Thinking like a philosopher. Love it. I appreciate and respect this forum very much. There is only one Turdtown and I am very proud to be one of its members. Have a nice Sunday yall, off to enjoy life and ponder on Turds new post.


Oct 2, 2011 - 1:30pm

on topic

How strongly do you guys believe ?

I believe in PM's because i think they will do good in different scenarios. Maybe inflation, maybe freegold, maybe a total collapse.

I am planning to buy land somewhere in the world because it will be good in any scenario.

However i am in doubt if i should buy food for a year and stuff like that because it will only be good in a total collapse SHTF scenario and i am not so convinced that will happen. (but not ruling it out of course)

And i must admit it is not merely a rational thing. 500€ of food and some basics like a cheap waterfilter comes a long way to save yourself in SHTF scenarios. But what is the chance of SHTF scenarios ? Am i overestimating it because i am pretty negative about the state of the world and constantly reading information from one sided, negative sources (like zero hedge) or am i underestimating because it is human nature to think that disaster wont strike me ? Even if the chance of an SHTF scenario is only a few %, 500€ is a worthy investment to save your ass in those few % cases. I kind of feel like im an idiot buying a survaval package if it is not gonna turn out so bad. I guess reason sais i should put those feelings aside.....

How far do you go ?

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:30pm


Even if the SHTF, having a stock of food is always good in the event of a natural disaster or if in a week or so, the railway workers strike and supplies won't make it to the don't want to be one of those racing to the grocery store only to find out the shelves are already wiped clean! Every time I go to the store, I buy a couple of 'extra' canned goods and have them set aside. For a few dollars every week or two, it will be worth it. And it the S doesn't HTF? No big have some extra food for when inflation really takes off.

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:35pm

Turd - thank you

It's refreshing to have your site as a place to go to help keep things in perspective. Thank you

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:36pm

I know what I believe and I'm

I know what I believe and I'm willing to stand up and say it. I think this weekend proves that.

PMs - I believe in freedom and liberty. PMs as money in a complex society (division of labor) is part of that. When the depression hits hard, PMs and mining stocks will acts as they did in the past and my wealth will transfer intact through the economic maelstrom. And if the SHTF, I have lead too.

Now...where did I leave that nuclear triggering device???

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:37pm

Being Tested

I totally agree with Turd. I am only a freshman with regard to stacking. I have strong beliefs on where I believe the metals will end up. However, my beliefs are not completely battle tested. I lived through May only by the grace of God, not because I was completely convinced I was doing the right thing. I am living through September because my beliefs have been solidifying and I no longer believe a dramatic drop in paper price is a bad thing. Then I come here and read read read and see arguments of those who wish to convince me to get out of the metals. But then I read the arguments of those that have been stacking for years and I see the difference in tone, logic, and evidence and my beliefs are reaffirmed.

I'll never sell. I'd rather be wrong than be part of the herd again and get slaughtered. But the arguments and logic "stack" so high in my favor that I am beginning to sleep much better at night.

Thank you Turd for providing this arena. Thank you for laying your gonads on the line. Thank you to all the other vets as well.


Oct 2, 2011 - 1:39pm

Planted Trolls

The planted trolls are everywhere now. Please if you haven't watch SGTreports he proves that by tracing the IP addresses posting hate mail and racist attacks on him and Bob Chapman were from none other (can't make this up) Bank of America owned IP addresses!

Go to minute two of the video and he proves it!

Turd it's going to be a long ugly war on truth but if it were easy the bankers would have already stolen it.

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:43pm

Turd is a brave man

Thanks, TF -- for your honesty, for your generosity, for being willing to be exposed to contrary opinion and for encouraging all of us to do the same. Please remain forever yourself - and I mean that as a compliment. That being said -- I BELIEVE

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Swift Boat Vet
Oct 2, 2011 - 1:45pm

With you Turd

Mr. Turd

Two threads excellently written. Speaking as an old fart with a lot of mileage, you are wise beyond your years.

I've read a lot of posts this weekend and erased many heated replies in the interests of harmony and not ruffling the many Pollyannas feathers here, nor of offending those who nitpick about word useage and phrases. Or, as my Dad used to say when I started that garbage as a youngster, "Yer picking the fly sh*t out of the pepper".

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:47pm
Edward G
Oct 2, 2011 - 1:48pm


It's interesting what leaders emerge...been thinking it's not about being the very smartest, but more about character, dedication, and listening to the smart people around you, some have greatness thrust upon them, this is a time when we all need those qualities... Turd is a person with great qualities, a fabulous rallying point.....but this place is all about self-help really in a media/confusion/frenzy/disinformation/crisis..... we should probably be the least worried compared to Ben/any workers on week-to week paycheques etc/ the uninformed..... and great if you can help others, thanks for your hard work Turrd and team.

interesting week, BoE, euro-newsfeed, shorts who have covered (who were the sellers/what did the shorts 'know' as KWN wrap was saying)...position-limits...deadlines.. expecting the unexpected as usual...will test our mettle!

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:52pm

bottom in oct !!!





CreditCrumbs Jasper16
Oct 2, 2011 - 1:52pm

Re: Planted Trolls

From the link in the video:

Cass Sunstein has long been one of Barack Obama's closest confidants. Often mentioned as a likely Obama nominee to the Supreme Court, Sunstein is currently Obama'shead of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs where, among other things, he is responsible for "overseeing policies relating to privacy, information quality, and statistical programs." In 2008, while at Harvard Law School, Sunstein co-wrote a truly pernicious paper proposing that the U.S. Government employ teams of covert agents and pseudo-"independent" advocates to "cognitively infiltrate" online groups and websites -- as well as other activist groups -- which advocate views that Sunstein deems "false conspiracy theories" about the Government. This would be designed to increase citizens' faith in government officials and undermine the credibility of conspiracists. The paper's abstract can be read, and the full paper downloaded, here.

Sunstein advocates that the Government's stealth infiltration should be accomplished by sending covert agents into "chat rooms, online social networks, or even real-space groups." He also proposes that the Government make secret payments to so-called "independent" credible voices to bolster the Government's messaging (on the ground that those who don't believe government sources will be more inclined to listen to those who appear independent while secretly acting on behalf of the Government). This program would target those advocating false "conspiracy theories," which they define to mean: "an attempt to explain an event or practice by reference to the machinations of powerful people, who have also managed to conceal their role." Sunstein's 2008 paper was flagged by this blogger, and then amplified in an excellent report by Raw Story's Daniel Tencer.

Oct 2, 2011 - 1:54pm

This volatility is what i signed up for

This volatility is what i signed up for, so I'm committed & here to ride the ride.
I keep thinking of that Sr JP Morgan trader, that spoke in that S&P crash in early-mid
august & he was adamnt about silver hitting 50, by the end of the year. Maybe so??

He just failed to mention a huge crevasse that we'd have to pass through (lol),
on the way to getting there (lol). Yeah, Main Street has been wild lately.
Hearing everyone's POV, def. opened my mind to the "occupy wall street".

Played some soccer today & loved it! Cheers!

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:04pm


Extremely timely and you could not be any more pertinent.

That's just the precise encouragement we all need to share with one another.

I will be shakin like a leaf when I pull da trigger @ 25 and @28.

But , what's up with that non-sense?
I was happy to buy at 30 and 35 and 40,

so what - after all - is the big deal?

If my [buying] motives were correct at 40,

then 25 - 28 will be the very gift from Santa

that I was wishin for, right?

Be right and sleep tight.

Brothers in arms, an all that.

Baaad Kittaaay
Oct 2, 2011 - 2:08pm

Who do you trust?

The hard part in thinking for yourself is that it can take you away from the herd. We are creatures of the herd, it is with the pack that we feel safe. One poster commented about wondering if he was too negative because he pours over "negative sites" like ZH. I am not so sure. Negative? Or an antidote to the onslaught of PR bs that we get from 'herd media'? History is full of collapse, so why are we so special? It is no coincidence that some people are still finding stashes of gold buried years ago to keep is safe. That is all we are doing..... Buying out stack and keeping is safe. The alternative is to believe that...... - house prices will go up forever and homes are a means to wealth - house prices will recover ( I am sure there were some who thought tulip bulb prices would recover as well!) - fiat currencies will maintain their value -politicians have our interest at heart (and have solutions that will save us) I freaked when the metals took a hit last week...... But my cash (sterling) has gone down by 25% in the last couple of years. No similar freaking because the hit was hidden. So yes, I may be being too negative but until I see evidence to to contrary (another Volker in the Fed for eg, or jail time for a few 1000 fraudsters) then I reckon I am actually being realistic. Long pm's is long fraud, long corruption, insider deals and a bet that TPTB cannot control the system when the wheels finally come off. I am not expecting an easy ride, nor I am expecting the intrenched to go down without a fight or to go quietly. It has never happend before, and it won't again. As for over prep...... Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it! K@

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:15pm

Having a 7 year perspective

I can't tell you how many times I've heard "double top" or "head and shoulders" called on gold. And this was back when nobody cared about it and the volatility per day was something like $2. And here we are today, where a $50 move is nothing special anymore.

In the end you have to have conviction that it is in a bull market. But not so much conviction that you won't notice when it's in a bubble. I lived through the .com bubble. I know what a bubble walks and quacks like. We're not there yet.

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:25pm

The bigger picture

I believe we are witnessing the collapse of a control structure that is much bigger than the financial (control) system alone. I have been studying a lot of physics the last couple of years, and in essence you can say main stream science is very much like main stream finance. The scientific analogy of the FED, the "peer reviewed journals", have been controlling and manipulating scientific progress in very much the same way as the FED has been controlling and manipulating economic progress. All these manipulative institutions are coming down, which will create the necessary environment needed to build a peaceful and free global society. One of the most important examples of how modern science went incredibly wrong is Einstein's theory of relativity. When you think about that logically, like Tesla did, it is so clear that this cannot be correct that it is almost beyond believe that 99 out of 100 scientists and engineers consider this theory "proven". Now I don't want to go into a discussion about this, because that would go much to far on this forum, but you may want to check out my article on this, if only to get a different perspective on the bigger picture: As for metals: I believe physical metals are the only safe investment to date. I have put all my savings in gold and silver. And as for buying more: that is very simple for me. I make enough money to get by and that's it. So, my current stack will have to do. @Turd: thank you for this site, I really enjoy reading your thoughts.

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:27pm

Know what the forces are

Many years ago I came to understand what gold and silver really stood for. I found that they evolved as money over the course of human civilization. The paper money system designed by banksters has sought to entrench confidence in the people for this system, for it is only this confidence that allows people to use paper money. This fact stated above is the main driver of the forces we are now experiencing as gold and silver investors. The paper money advocates who stand to benefit the most from its usage have been in power for many decades. The have invested large amounts of resources to maintain the confidence in their system. In the book " The Creature from Jekyll Island" Mr Griffin make the point that the profits from the paper money were invest our time in acquirering the media, acedemia and politicians. With the advent of the internet the new source for information possed a hugh challenge to their control. Have to go to be continued...

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:29pm

The highest supreme law of the land is the right of free speech

Free speech is part of the first amendment. Why do you think the founding fathers put that first. Because if we don’t have free speech, we do NOT have anything. The Bill of Rights being part of the Constitution makes it the supreme law of the land. In other words, they placed free speech at the very top of the list as the most important freedoms and rights to be protected. So, in the hierarchy of legal values and rights, free speech is the most supreme of all. Also included in the First Amendment is the right to peaceably assemble. Now here you have speech and peaceful assembly, or gathering, at the very pinnacle of those duties that any officer, who takes seriously their sacred oath of office, are duty bound to preserve and defend.

Recently, in the New York Walls Street protest, we saw video of an older “White Shirt” officer going around randomly spaying young women in the face with pepper spray, all while they were being corralled by other officers. This guy apparently has been on the NYPD force forever. I ask you, what kind of example does this guy represent to the public? What message does he send to the rest of the less tenured officers in that police force. For that matter, to the whole damn world. This officer should be, not only removed from office, but severely punished, because the crimes of any law enforcement official are far greater than any violation of a normal citizen. So egregious are his offenses and so sacred his duty, that the crime is exponentially compounded when it involves violating free speech and free assembly.

Now further, is not the good name and reputation of all law enforcement officials tarnished beyond redemption when the nations “TOP COP” is also committing the same violent crimes at one of his own events. Not only that, torture a most heinous crime, was common place under the consenting watchful eye of George Bush Junior. As a consequence of these and other crimes, in effect, these “top cops” have single handedly turned their entire policing institutions of this nation into nothing less than a ruthless gang of thugs. Every person who has a deep and abiding respect for the institution of law enforcement (i.e. Bill of Rights enforcement) should be in absolute horror at the complete destruction of this once proud office. We as a nation of free people cannot allow and tolerate this kind of abuse and lawlessness (unconstitutional rights violations) to continue any longer. All these criminals and thugs must be brought to justice and put back in their place as servants of the people. Should we fail in that endeavor, then things are only going to get worse, very much worse. If the supreme laws of this land are not enforced by those for whom it is a sacred duty and honor to do so, then we as a nation are indeed doomed to slavery and tyranny.

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:30pm

Turd, Thanks for the forum

I'm totally addicted to this forum - for both your thoughts and the thoughts of your posters. Just wanted to say thanks for creating a special place where I can read and learn. I'd love to thank all the posters who've helped me in my learning and my thought processes, but I can't remember them all!!

But I can still say Thanks to All.

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:36pm

something to believe in

mrF i thank you for creating this place. the band plays on. we aLL have our favorite songs. learning from each other is the only way we grow.

Poison - Something To Believe In
Oct 2, 2011 - 2:36pm

I'm waitin'

for silver to drop under $20 then I'm throwing every penny I can spare into the beautiful white metal!

Cmon' silver - drop drop DROP!

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:39pm

Ron Paul Message to Occupy Wall - Let's End The Fed

I haven't heard RP specifically speak on the movement but their interests seem to be aligned.

Video unavailable
Oct 2, 2011 - 2:40pm

I'm frankly surprised

nobody has as of yet unloaded a can of pepper spray into office 'Tony' Balogna's face. Anybody can carry pepper spray.

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:42pm

The latest COT-report is

The latest COT-report is intriguing. The big shorts have covered a lot of their short positions and if previous periods with similar dynamics were to be our guide, we've soon reached the point where price will swing heavily in favour of the bulls.

Like in the past, I've marked where important bottoms have been made. The price charts for both gold and silver have been put on top of it all. This time around we've seen extreme short covering by the normal culprits into price dips, especially in silver, and one has to wonder if the likes of JP Morgan, in collusion with the CME, threw everything they had at silver to get one last opportunity to cover their positions before price runs away.

One thing is clear: this is not a setup for further heavy sell-offs. The hedge funds, which are the major drivers of price movements, haven't been as little involved in the gold market since early 2009 with gold below $1000. For silver the numbers are even more shocking. The combined net longs for Specs haven't been as tiny since on the bottom of the crash 2008 with silver below $10!

Technical damage has been made to silver and is noted by many pundits. Just remember that it's largely an orchestrated smash which has been delivered and the fundamental drivers behind the silver bull are not only intact, but improving. They will soon take charge of price action again.

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:44pm

I hope to be wrong

I am stacking physical PM and only invest in PM currently. In theory, these times are deflationary. In praxis, these deflationary pressures will be more than offset by central bad banks. Why? Imagine the national depts in a deflationary environment. This is end game at once.

If I am wrong, I will keep my job, there will be no financial turmoil and no social unrest. So I would like to be wrong and loose some bucks.

silver squirrel
Oct 2, 2011 - 2:46pm

speaks louder than words

The old adage "action speaks louder than words" comes to mind as I read the many posts here. For anyone investing in metals during this constant volatility their actions will tell the story. I am new to this PM stuff, but without a lot of experience it just seem that now is a great time to stack, stack stack while the PM's are on sale. Thanks for keeping real Turd!

Oct 2, 2011 - 2:53pm

It's the 2nd Amendment!

Just remember, its the 2nd amendment that allows you to defend your 1st amendment rights......the day they take away your "right to bear arms" is the day they take away your freedom speech ......BELIEVE IT. Forcing a government's point of view on the populus through force doesn't work in a well armed, free society........So whether you believe in the "right to bear arms" or not.....please recognize that any attempt to stifle your 2nd amendment rights is definitely a "canary in the coal mine" for the coming of a police state. That is what i believe! Dont think for 1 second that the local, state or federal govt cares about "the innocent people killed by handguns"....they could give a shit about you or me, if they really did care, they would enforce the laws that are on the books. No, the real reason they want guns out of our hands is because it threatens their power, it threatens their when they come for the guns, you know it's all over.

Green Lantern
Oct 2, 2011 - 2:58pm

Nobody Is Bucking Me From This Bull

Ride Em High, Ride Em Low, Ride this bull until the end

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