Looking For a Bottom (White-out Edition)

562
154
Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 10:34pm

 Though I've tried to swear off the short-term charts for the time being, the price action today and tonight drew me back in. Then, with the addition of a little of Mrs. F's white-out, look what I found.

Again, it's way too early to get excited. There's a lot of blood in the water so aqua-vermin are still circling. However, the charts below are just interesting enough to give us some optimism.

Longtime readers will recall that, after events of extreme and fishy volatility, I sometimes like to paint some white-out on the charts to see if it changes the look and feel of the situation. Tonight is one such time. By applying the white-out to remove the ridiculously sharp, LBMA-inspired drops of early this morning, an interesting pattern emerges on both the gold and silver charts.

paper_9-26pmgold.jpgpaper_9-26pmsilv.jpg

Look at that! That almost looks like a bottom you can believe in!

Let's see where this takes us from here. IF 28-29 in silver and 1580-1600 in gold can hold a bit longer, confidence will grow. IF the lines I've drawn can be crossed to the upside, confidence will grow even stronger. The 1665 level in gold is particularly significant as you will recall that that is the area where the 8/7/11 gap on the chart was opened and then filled last week. A move back above 1665 that holds for a few days would be an extremely positive technical development.

OK, now I'd just like to take a second and complain a bit.

1) This blog and website was started last year was because, for some unknown reason, people wanted easy access to what I was thinking during the trading day and after hours. In keeping true to this theme, I update my thoughts, based on current events, regularly throughout the day. I have never gone back, after the fact, and edited or deleted anything, no matter how foolish something may look with the benefit of hindsight. So, what chaps my behind a bit is when folks comment or email me to point out what a fool I am because 10 days ago I thought gold at 1800 was a pretty good buy. First of all, it still is but it's an even better buy at 1600. That notwithstanding, to look back at old posts and then criticize them doesn't seem very fair. I did my best, at the time, to analyze the situation based upon current information. So, please, enough with the monday-morning-quarterbacking.

2) Let's talk about the previous blog post for a second. In the heat of the battle this morning, news of this "London Gold Exchange" company closing hit this site before anywhere else on the internet. Since the discussion of this seemingly important (at the time) item was being limited to the comments of the main blog, I feared it would go unnoticed by many regular readers. Thus, I elevated the "news" to its own post. Four to five hours later, the "news" is discovered to be no big deal. Amazingly, some of you have taken the time to email me and inform me that I'm a clueless dupe because I posted the story. Whatever. I'm a one-man show here and I'm simply trying my best to stay ahead of the curve.

3) And lay off my "guests" for the podcasts. I make it very clear in the introduction of the segment who the guest is. If you already are familiar with said guest and, for some reason, you don't like this person, then skip the podcast! No one is forcing you to listen. I just think it's tremendously rude for you to take to the comments section and belittle the feature without considering that others may have a different appreciation of the guest's points of view. Look, all I'm saying is: Don't be a jerk. If you don't like the current podcast, come back in two weeks time and check out the next one.

4) Please allow me to state this one more time: If you are trading gold and/or silver futures on the Comex, you are literally playing with fire. The ultra-criminal C/C/C still runs the show and they will screw you every chance they get. Your only option for long-term success is the consistent purchase and delivery of physical metal. Period. I will continue to try to keep this site updated with my thoughts regarding the short-term direction of prices but, when the time comes again that The Cartel decides to manipulate price lower to selfishly suit their purposes, don't come crying to me about all the fiat you've lost because you've leveraged yourself to infinity in the hopes of an early retirement. As the disclaimer below says: The Turd provides knowledge and direction but you are the one ultimately responsible for the decisions you make. Not me.

Alrighty, then, that's enough bitching for a Monday. Thank you for letting me rant. Let's see if we can hang in there overnight. IF we can avoid the 3:00 am LBMA beatdown, the metals are poised for a significant rebound tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed. TF

10:20 am EDT UPDATE:

Simply amazing how quickly fear turns into greed and vice versa. All part of the fun, I suppose.

paper_9-27amgold.jpgpaper_9-27amsilv.jpg

About the Author

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  562 Comments

Haole · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:38pm
cpnscarlet · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:40pm

Feel Sorry for Ya, Turd

Though I've tried to swear off the short-term charts for the time being, the price action today and tonight drew me back in.

You know, they have medical centers to treat these addictions.devil

donnojackshit · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:44pm

Damn Straight Turd

In the End Game there is no End of Games.

sixdollarsilver · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:48pm

Governor Raskin speech - re-post sorry

Hi everyone

I'm new here and just want to say how much I've enjoyed reading all your comments and posts these last few weeks. Special thanks to the Turd for making it all possible through the creation of this forum. I've been in gold/silver one way or another since around $450/$6 - wish I'd just stacked back then and saved myself a whole lot of work, stress and frustration ...Oh well, live and learn!

I'm not sure if anyone has already posted this, but I found it quite enlightening in a "I'm not saying anything at all, but you might want to listen very carefully" kind of way. This is from the conclusion:

"In my view, the deployment of our monetary policy tools needs to be carefully gauged, appropriately timed, and clearly communicated to the public. Moreover, to the extent that some factors may attenuate the usual effectiveness of monetary policy, there is a compelling case to identify and implement policy measures to mitigate those factors and thereby strengthen the effect of the monetary accommodation that we have already put in place. Finally, in light of the economic hardships that are facing our nation, I want to underscore that the Federal Reserve is fully committed to doing everything we can to promote maximum employment in the context of price stability." ...full speech here

​Good luck all and remember the old chinese saying: ​'When a ship comes into port, it must line up with the dock'

RedRover · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:51pm
mouser · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:51pm

Good on ya TF

I agree on all points , every one likes to rag on you when you are wrong, quickly forgetting how many times you are right. Bugs me when people post i told you so comments from the likes of Clive Maund and Jon Nadler. I would just as soon kick those idjits in the gonads, since they have been wrong for so long , far more often than right. If you had listened to those boneheads, the past 5 years or so, you would never have owned gold over 1000$ and silver over 15$.

A 2 day takedown on silver , in Nadlers words means we are in a bear market for silver. Hmmmm, before that massacre, silver was up over 100% in the past 52 weeks, and hard to find an asset class that had outperformed silver. His definition of a bear market different than mine by a lot. Now the US$ has been in a bear market, and what we saw an engineered rally in the greenback. THERE IS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY driving the US$ higher other than panic, and trading bots from wall street. Hardly a reason for any analyst to call a bull market in the $ having started, rather it was a bear rally imo.

I liked GL podcast , and even if i dont fully agree with all he has to say, i do like hearing his viewpoints, and dont think he is all that far offbase.

I would like to make a prediction on silver , but dont want to put my curse on it, LOL I had figured september/october generally a strong season for precious metals so had figured gold and silver would at least go sideways until later in the fall. I like Jim WIllie's forecast of 2000$ gold by JAN 2102 and 60 silver. He has been right far more often, and much more accurately than most of the other writers i follow.

Great site here. Thannx for all the headsup ideas TF

small_potatoes · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:52pm

keep up the good work, turd

it seems pretty simple that if people don't like what you have to say, they should just go elsewhere. no one can predict with 10% accuracy every move of the market, especially now.

sixdollarsilver · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:52pm

keep up the good work Turd!

If some don't understand what you're doing here, ignore them. Keep on saying what you think - much appreciated!

Boswell · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:53pm

I wish

I could use some of that white out on my bills! ;-)

small_potatoes · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:54pm

oops 100%

100%

apex101 · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:56pm

I agree. I also noticed

I agree. I also noticed without the white out an ascending triangle. It looks like i could go up tonight. I pulled the trigger at 1635 it looks like its going to go through 1640. Lets see if it can hold it.

sir · Sep 26, 2011 - 10:57pm

White out

I love it when you get the white out, out Turd!

TruthPreeminent · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:00pm

Silver Thoughts

I agree with Turd that there is some resistance around 33.50. 35 or so is a 50% retrace of the move from 44 down to 26. I would be surprised to see it get above there in the short term notwithstanding the possibility of explicit money printing. Have a good night all.

atarangi · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:04pm

@ Mouser

Good call on Jim Willie, I've always found him to be superior to most when it comes to general horse sense and good predictions. Turd and Willie are my current favourites.

GSFL · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:05pm

Misery loves company

Turd

Stop worrying about what people are saying and just do what you do with no apologies. There are miserable people everywhere and misery loves company... don't give them any.

Keep up the good work, nobody can be right all the time

ReallySparky · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:06pm

You have every right to rant...

Turd, you have every right to rant, this is your house and we are your guests. I aapreciate your hospitality and information. Once everyone wakes up and understands that this is not the buy and hold world of the gogo 90's, then they will understand that your calls are subject to change. Physical is the buy and hold! The stocks, futures,ect are subject to change within seconds of an unregulated market. Thanks again for showing up!

PaPaSpeed · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:12pm

Time Out!

Ok Turd, if people are Monday morning quarterbacking, and ragging you or your guests, give them a Time Out. Tell them their welcome back in a week or so, but take the next week off. Take their privileges away for awhile and maybe they'll learn some manners. We won't miss them for a week.

Thanks for all you do.

Matt Foley · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:13pm

I like this site simply

I like this site simply because I like to read what people have to say about all this silver nonsense going on. There are people on here though with all the over-the-top conspiracy stuff that need to pipe down just a tad.

Even though I can offer no advice and with these markets I simply would not even if i knew stuff. This is where Turd sticks his neck out and takes a chance. Got to admire a dude for that!

If we have to we can use Margaritatime's Psycho Test to weed out a few people LOL!

jlee2027 · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:14pm

Minors are a diversion

Your only option for long-term success is the consistent purchase and delivery of physical metal.

And this includes playing with the gold/silver minors, etc. They are all diversions from the main event. When the system blows sky high, no one will give you a plug nickel for your nifty gold minors stock. Yes, banks will close. Markets will close. Finding food might just become the most important thing. Once again:

Your only option for long-term success is the consistent purchase and delivery of physical metal.

​And that is where every cent you are able to put aside should go.

Your only option for long-term success is the consistent purchase and delivery of physical metal.

Turdle GG · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:18pm

Turd

Just keep telling it how you see it, Turd.

That's your deal with us! (Until you get sick of it)

question · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:22pm

Yeah, Turd Rants

Well done.

I'll stand in the corner for 10 minutes and think about what I've done and come out behaving better.

Kids, what can you do?

survivalwstyle · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:26pm

show some love

but remember we have expiration tuesday. me thinks the EE would sure like to get a close under 30. one last hoRRah. this is like a worlds strongest man competition. EE has 1 more event left, they have tied the score, unfortunately for them, their knEEs are about to blow. 

UncleFester · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:29pm

Nothing Like a Good Rank Turd

Completely off topic...I just heard an owl in my backyard. How many here have owls in their backyards?

IFester

Hang10-Hawaii · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:29pm

Keep it real Turd...

Turd-

It goes without sayin' that those of us who followed you over hear from ZH from the beginning are still here because:

1 - you offered to provide us with your insights in real time - right, wrong or otherwise, and you have remained true to that commitment. It takes ball$ to stand up and make the calls you do, and it has inspired countless others to do the same (hello, Atlee, Shill, Tom L, etc.)

2 - you dipped into your own pocket along with donations from other Turdites to build this site into something that is truly remarkable. An open forum for dialog, friendly debate, and and exchange of ideas. Not all of it will resonate with everyone, which is fine - they can skip over the stuff that doesn't float their boat.

3 - your personal integrity in being the "adult in the room" when it comes to expectations about good behavior in the discussions - you have consistently demonstrated a high degree of personal integrity in how you handle those with differing viewpoints

4 - the moderators you have enlisted are VERY, VERY good. They are considerate, firm and not prone to flaming anyone. Most refreshing.

5 - most important to me: you have established a place where those of us who care to think for ourselves can find like-minded people, who are happy to share their experiences (e.g. options, trading, where to buy phyz, how to prep., what firearms to consider, etc.). I am a humble apprentice here on the watchtower, and have a lot more to learn. 

What's offered here in the collective wisdom of those willing to share is more valuable than the MBA I picked up years ago, because the stuff here is for real, and comes from the best school in the world - the school of hard knocks.

Keep up the good work...and keep on keepin' it real for us.

Cheers,

Shill · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:29pm

The gap down shake out this

The gap down shake out this morning was a great buying opportunity, after a vicious drop of 20% or more last week the SLV bulls found a gift this morning in the form a final gap down that was bought, that may put the bottom in for a while. Can SLV like the German DAx re test the lows of today? After profit taking takes place some pull back will occur but based on the massive volume I think the next leg is higher. This is why I took a full position earlier on, and looking at this evenings action my dice roll hit. So I got the AM fills going for me. Cheers.

onealpha · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:31pm

Owning a Fishing Boat

Owning a fishing boat sounds like so much fun when you love to fish and live near the water. If your any good at it before you know it all your buddies tell you how great it would be if you owned a boat and they promise to help you every step of the way. Once you buy the boat everything is great. All your friends are excited too. They all help with the gas and cleanup and even give you a hand with servicing it. After a while though it becomes a lot of work and the occasional friend of a friend comes along and ruins the day with all the criticizing and antics. At some point you find yourself all alone cleaning up the boat thinking about that jackwagon trying to tell you his fishing hole was the right hole and your no catch day was because you arent much of a fisherman. All while he drinks your beer and never offers to help out. Its times like this that you wonder why the hell did you ever bother buying this boat when you could have just continued to rent boats and not deal with all of these headaches. I hope you dont let a few idiot friends of friends ruin your love of fishing. After all you are a fisherman and nothing is more satisfying to a fisherman than being the captain of his own ship and bringing in the nice haul of fish. You dont owe us anything and we appreciate being invited along for the ride. So what if the fish arent biting this week and we get skunked. Its not your fault any more than its your fault that it rained today when everything indicated that it would be sunny and clear. Sometimes those storms come out of nowhere. We had a great time hanging out with you having a few laughs. Just remember your the passion that started you down this path and dont be detracted by a few jackwagons. Hold on to that passion and continue to do this for your own self satisfaction. A lot of us have backgrounds in IT and many other feilds. We are the ones that encouraged you to buy the boat when you asked our opinion back at the beginning. We are also the ones who are willing to help do some of the heavy lifting. All you need to do is ask. By the way, i have never owned a boat but have known a lot who have. I have run forums before and I feel your pain. Keep up the good work and remember it has to be fun for you also or it just becomes a job.

Aeonios · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:32pm

After the overnight asian

After the overnight asian smackdown, a cup&handle formed in both gold and silver on the 24h which flatlined but held resistance till GMT 0:00, after which the action turned bullish. Both seem to be making an orderly ascent, but we still have plenty of time before Blythe's usual witching hour, so don't count your candles just yet.

I pulled the trigger this morning on AGQ with an average position of ~$30 in futures terms. This marks my first return to a PM position since the lead into FOMC. When the metals started tracking the market and making anomalous weak moves I decided to bow out, but after hearing bullish sentiments all day (and not seeing any evidence of further major manipulation) I decided it was time to BTFD.

Well, I sure hope the force or whatever is on our side.

exiledbear · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:32pm

If you're trading futures period

You're playing with fire. If you're trading options ON futures, you're playing with nukes. Some people like to live right on the edge. 

We're closer to the end of this correction than the beginning of it. Not that there might be another downdraft or three still left, but the odds are starting to tip against you if you're short. But they're just odds. Who knows what will happen tomorrow.

The first and last 1/8ths - remember what Livermore said about them!

wackzingo · Sep 26, 2011 - 11:33pm

Did people really complain

Did people really complain about the Podcast? I haven't heard the first one yet, but I really, really liked Podcast #2 and I liked it so much I sent it to about a dozen friends and family members. It must have been the Gold/Silver bugs who got their feeling hurt.

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