Looking For a Bottom (White-out Edition)

562
154
Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 10:34pm

Though I've tried to swear off the short-term charts for the time being, the price action today and tonight drew me back in. Then, with the addition of a little of Mrs. F's white-out, look what I found.

Again, it's way too early to get excited. There's a lot of blood in the water so aqua-vermin are still circling. However, the charts below are just interesting enough to give us some optimism.

Longtime readers will recall that, after events of extreme and fishy volatility, I sometimes like to paint some white-out on the charts to see if it changes the look and feel of the situation. Tonight is one such time. By applying the white-out to remove the ridiculously sharp, LBMA-inspired drops of early this morning, an interesting pattern emerges on both the gold and silver charts.

Look at that! That almost looks like a bottom you can believe in!

Let's see where this takes us from here. IF 28-29 in silver and 1580-1600 in gold can hold a bit longer, confidence will grow. IF the lines I've drawn can be crossed to the upside, confidence will grow even stronger. The 1665 level in gold is particularly significant as you will recall that that is the area where the 8/7/11 gap on the chart was opened and then filled last week. A move back above 1665 that holds for a few days would be an extremely positive technical development.

OK, now I'd just like to take a second and complain a bit.

1) This blog and website was started last year was because, for some unknown reason, people wanted easy access to what I was thinking during the trading day and after hours. In keeping true to this theme, I update my thoughts, based on current events, regularly throughout the day. I have never gone back, after the fact, and edited or deleted anything, no matter how foolish something may look with the benefit of hindsight. So, what chaps my behind a bit is when folks comment or email me to point out what a fool I am because 10 days ago I thought gold at 1800 was a pretty good buy. First of all, it still is but it's an even better buy at 1600. That notwithstanding, to look back at old posts and then criticize them doesn't seem very fair. I did my best, at the time, to analyze the situation based upon current information. So, please, enough with the monday-morning-quarterbacking.

2) Let's talk about the previous blog post for a second. In the heat of the battle this morning, news of this "London Gold Exchange" company closing hit this site before anywhere else on the internet. Since the discussion of this seemingly important (at the time) item was being limited to the comments of the main blog, I feared it would go unnoticed by many regular readers. Thus, I elevated the "news" to its own post. Four to five hours later, the "news" is discovered to be no big deal. Amazingly, some of you have taken the time to email me and inform me that I'm a clueless dupe because I posted the story. Whatever. I'm a one-man show here and I'm simply trying my best to stay ahead of the curve.

3) And lay off my "guests" for the podcasts. I make it very clear in the introduction of the segment who the guest is. If you already are familiar with said guest and, for some reason, you don't like this person, then skip the podcast! No one is forcing you to listen. I just think it's tremendously rude for you to take to the comments section and belittle the feature without considering that others may have a different appreciation of the guest's points of view. Look, all I'm saying is: Don't be a jerk. If you don't like the current podcast, come back in two weeks time and check out the next one.

4) Please allow me to state this one more time: If you are trading gold and/or silver futures on the Comex, you are literally playing with fire. The ultra-criminal C/C/C still runs the show and they will screw you every chance they get. Your only option for long-term success is the consistent purchase and delivery of physical metal. Period. I will continue to try to keep this site updated with my thoughts regarding the short-term direction of prices but, when the time comes again that The Cartel decides to manipulate price lower to selfishly suit their purposes, don't come crying to me about all the fiat you've lost because you've leveraged yourself to infinity in the hopes of an early retirement. As the disclaimer below says: The Turd provides knowledge and direction but you are the one ultimately responsible for the decisions you make. Not me.

Alrighty, then, that's enough bitching for a Monday. Thank you for letting me rant. Let's see if we can hang in there overnight. IF we can avoid the 3:00 am LBMA beatdown, the metals are poised for a significant rebound tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed. TF

10:20 am EDT UPDATE:

Simply amazing how quickly fear turns into greed and vice versa. All part of the fun, I suppose.

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  562 Comments

Haole
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:38pm
cpnscarlet
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:40pm

Feel Sorry for Ya, Turd

Though I've tried to swear off the short-term charts for the time being, the price action today and tonight drew me back in.

You know, they have medical centers to treat these addictions.

donnojackshit
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:44pm

Damn Straight Turd

In the End Game there is no End of Games.

sixdollarsilver
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:48pm

Governor Raskin speech - re-post sorry

Hi everyone

I'm new here and just want to say how much I've enjoyed reading all your comments and posts these last few weeks. Special thanks to the Turd for making it all possible through the creation of this forum. I've been in gold/silver one way or another since around $450/$6 - wish I'd just stacked back then and saved myself a whole lot of work, stress and frustration ...Oh well, live and learn!

I'm not sure if anyone has already posted this, but I found it quite enlightening in a "I'm not saying anything at all, but you might want to listen very carefully" kind of way. This is from the conclusion:

"In my view, the deployment of our monetary policy tools needs to be carefully gauged, appropriately timed, and clearly communicated to the public. Moreover, to the extent that some factors may attenuate the usual effectiveness of monetary policy, there is a compelling case to identify and implement policy measures to mitigate those factors and thereby strengthen the effect of the monetary accommodation that we have already put in place. Finally, in light of the economic hardships that are facing our nation, I want to underscore that the Federal Reserve is fully committed to doing everything we can to promote maximum employment in the context of price stability." ...full speech here

​Good luck all and remember the old chinese saying: ​'When a ship comes into port, it must line up with the dock'

RedRover
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:51pm
mouser
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:51pm

Good on ya TF

I agree on all points , every one likes to rag on you when you are wrong, quickly forgetting how many times you are right. Bugs me when people post i told you so comments from the likes of Clive Maund and Jon Nadler. I would just as soon kick those idjits in the gonads, since they have been wrong for so long , far more often than right. If you had listened to those boneheads, the past 5 years or so, you would never have owned gold over 1000$ and silver over 15$.

A 2 day takedown on silver , in Nadlers words means we are in a bear market for silver. Hmmmm, before that massacre, silver was up over 100% in the past 52 weeks, and hard to find an asset class that had outperformed silver. His definition of a bear market different than mine by a lot. Now the US$ has been in a bear market, and what we saw an engineered rally in the greenback. THERE IS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY driving the US$ higher other than panic, and trading bots from wall street. Hardly a reason for any analyst to call a bull market in the $ having started, rather it was a bear rally imo.

I liked GL podcast , and even if i dont fully agree with all he has to say, i do like hearing his viewpoints, and dont think he is all that far offbase.

I would like to make a prediction on silver , but dont want to put my curse on it, LOL I had figured september/october generally a strong season for precious metals so had figured gold and silver would at least go sideways until later in the fall. I like Jim WIllie's forecast of 2000$ gold by JAN 2102 and 60 silver. He has been right far more often, and much more accurately than most of the other writers i follow.

Great site here. Thannx for all the headsup ideas TF

small_potatoes
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:52pm

keep up the good work, turd

it seems pretty simple that if people don't like what you have to say, they should just go elsewhere. no one can predict with 10% accuracy every move of the market, especially now.

sixdollarsilver
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:52pm

keep up the good work Turd!

If some don't understand what you're doing here, ignore them. Keep on saying what you think - much appreciated!

Boswell
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:53pm

I wish

I could use some of that white out on my bills! ;-)

small_potatoes
Sep 26, 2011 - 10:54pm
Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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