An Interesting Development

363
Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 10:58am

Below is something that many of us just noticed. Hmmm...:

https://www.londongoldexchange.com/maintenance/

Now, I'm not sure what kind of "operational difficulties" would lead this company to "permanently close for business" but it sure is an interesting development, to say the least. Here's more, from Wikipedia:

"London Gold Exchange is a digital currency exchanger founded in 2001. The London Gold Exchange is owned by LGE International LTD., an offshore company registered in Belize, with offices in London, England and Hong Kong. London Gold Exchange operate 2 franchises, one in the UK and one 'International' which covers everywhere other than the UK. The UK administration office in Central London, with staff based in locations around the UK. The International administration office is in Hong Kong, with staff also operating from mainland China. Technical staff also operate from locations in Australia."

Now, I would sure think that, if you've been in business since 2001, you would have a pretty solid hedge book in place to protect you against sudden downdrafts. Maybe not. Who knows? Maybe those Friday rumors of a "big, European liquidator" had some merit?

At any rate, the damage is done and is continuing to worsen. I don't know anything about this company. However, news of a "gold company" suddenly closing its doors will only serve to further unsettle this market and rattle weaker longs. Therefore, don't be surprised by further weakness as this gets disseminated.

That said, many have asked me to employ the pen and sharpie to discern where all this madness might end. As discussed previously, the 15-minute and hourly charts are completely worthless right now. On the other hand, the weekly chart may provide some clues. If you think (as I do) that the long-term bull market for the PMs remains intact, then you should look for guidance from the long-term charts. The charts below are significant in that the trendlines shown date back to the initiation of Quantitative Easing back in March of 2009. If you expect more easing and QE to infiinity (which I do), then you should expect these trendlines to hold. Perhaps not precisely. It would be foolish to think gold will stop right at 1480, for instance. However, if you're looking for areas to BTBFDIRM (buy the biggest f-ing dip in recent memory), the areas shown below would seem to be a logical starting point.

Keep the faith and keep stacking. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  363 Comments

jlee2027
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:27pm

Yes, Bernanke and Geithner are working together.

How in the very end of the end game, all the evil players will be turning and blaming each other. Perhaps that is a hint of what we are seeing.

In response to:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/35939#comment-35939

¤
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:27pm
RedRover
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:33pm

Food for Thought (on how to respond)



Certainly a time, where if someone may of purchased w/ options (prior to the crash);
having time (deferred expiry w/ options) is certainly appreciated. Additionally,
having some dry powder ready to go, is GREATLY appreciated.

Letting go of the concern of your initial position for a moment; not entirely, but -- just enough
to focus on the present opportunities w/ your remaining dry powder, presents certain opportunities.
Plotting out in your mind how most effectively to use the remaining powder/war chest; is important.

-- where do you see it going ? Where will your money be most effective (?) & acting upon it.
-- Blocking out all the chatter, and blog comments & arriving at your own consensus.
--- Take all this stuff in and making a decision to act (or not to act).

>> Options, Futures, Physical. You pick your path, and so on.

Regardless, this is the time to be making some decisions. This is why you didn't use
100% on your initial purchase (right?); and so on. It's time; jumping back in the game
now (or early this AM), or in a week or so. Regardless, if it goes down, now is a good buy time.

It may very well go down as Turd said; so maybe you want to hold back some.. (again).

However, today presented us w/ some good opportunities. Thing is -- if you're down &
you are scared out of the market right now; it's not time to run and hide & lick your wounds
(if you have dry powder, that is). It's time to rise to the occasion and respond effectively.

The difference between reacting & responding, is this: reacting is like, a knee-jerk reaction
that you don't think about. Responding is acting, after thinking and reflecting on the best
approach to take & then implementing your decision. It's yours, you act & you own it.

For what it's worth:

Would of thought the margin hikes would of had a more devastating response today. No?
It seemed somewhat tame, considering. Wow, huh... crazy, wild times we live in...
and I get to live to fight another day (not entirely unscathed) and blog w/ all of you.

Very grateful for the community (& the edit option, lol).

Thank you, all.




badScooter
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:34pm

discretion and circumspection

probably spelled that wrong...

Anyway, just wanted to pipe in with my thoughts on 'educating others'. I am very careful about what I say, and to who. Having a Smith & Wesson does not make one bulletproof - check out FerFal for more on that one. Even if it did, I'm not sure I'd want to use it just because the wrong person heard something to suggest my domicile was worth an 'unauthorized visit'. Privileged information tends to "leak" (ask ScottJ about that one!!), and it only takes one sister's-uncle's-brother's-deadbeat friend's-boyfriend finding out about your shiny interests to cause a problem for you - whether you actually have any or not, whether or not you even keep it at home or in an allocated account somewhere. Crim'nals are generally stupid (JPM and GS excepted, of course).

I am considerately more free with my Austrian perspective on the fiscal and monetary foolishness going on, but I take pains not to seem pushy about it. I don't even bother to talk to people who have "OBAMA" bumper stickers.

Um, this is pointless, but fun: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/26/cloud_monkeys_bananas_producing_shakespeare/

schmederling
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:39pm

PM Fall

I little while back I suggested that we could see the Fall season for the metals turn as we have an unusual summer rally.

An October Rally is not likely until the has bottomed out and that could take a little while.

I still believe the expected Fall Rally will disappoint and start late - or non at all. Hopefully we see the bottom on this by late OCT - Early November but one never knows.

We should then start then next leg up and the final phase of the Bull Run!!..

Thanks

GoldMania3000
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:40pm

wow

that was a fricken crazy 24 hours my friends of gold and silver land. Now what...interestingly some of the mid-tier junior stocks started reboudning which is a good sign. Some where definetely oversold. Now are we going to go down another 10%...My mantra is still paper controls and they can do whatever they want....I've heard that local coin dealers are so busy that they can't keep up. Not sure this is true everywhere. But theres much physical demand.

Dr Durden
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:42pm

No one wants to hear it

You have to let the sheep get sheared over and over until they learn. What it's going to take is for people to see gas at $10, bread at $6 and the balance on their IRA at $50. Why? Because they're fucking brainwashed.

Stop trying to convince people. Stop trying to help people. You can't. Just offer up information and opportunities and let the Law of Attraction work. They will find you, there's no need to try.

When the student is ready, the master will appear. That's EXACTLY why everyone is here right now.

Also, if you haven't learned by the last "RAID!" knock the uberbull-shit and cheerleading off. It's for your own good. G&S ain't going to the fucking moon. Enough. Look at the 200MA's on each chart and then follow them out 10 years. There's a lot of sky that hasn't been flown before, but you're not going to hit the moon in this atmosphere.

By his own admission Turd is just some dude with a Macbook, so let him be that. Expect nothing from him, but let it all sink in.

Do your own research, come to your own conclusions and ignore the rest of the noise. I can find at least one post by Scott J telling everyone how we'd never see silver lower than $40 again. I love Scott and all, but it's just noise. I've heard others say at the end of the May massacre that "the great silver run is over." Noise. One TA guy I follow is 99% sure gold will plunge to $1300 in some wave formation just cause it has to. Noise. If it wasn't for the Fed, gold would be double. Noise.

Ok, bye then.....

¤
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:49pm

Geman News Service

Most Germans oppose increased euro bail-out

Published: 23 Sep 11 12:04 CET

As their politicians prepare for next Thursday’s parliamentary vote on extending the euro rescue fund, a survey has found that a clear majority of Germans do not want them to decide in favour.

A survey commissioned by public broadcaster ZDF showed that 75 percent of those asked, rejected the idea. Only 19 percent supported the proposed increase to €211 billion of the German credit guarantees to rescue the euro.

This rejection was fairly evenly spread through all political colours, with 70 percent of conservatives expressing that view as well as 73 percent of Social Democrat (SPD) supporters, 71 of Left voters, 67 percent of Green supporters and 82 percent of Pirate Party supporters, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Friday

https://www.thelocal.de/money/20110923-37783.html

daveyboy
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:52pm

The germans can go to hell

We white european people are stupid and naive, we live in a free society until that is we stand up against the rule and then we very quickly learn we have no freedom at all, only privileges.

ScottJ
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:58pm

50% of Americans find Government an "Immediate Threat"

To liberties....

A bunch of other graphs here at the link below.

https://www.gallup.com/poll/149678/Americans-Express-Historic-Negativity...

Last week has been intense for many. Rest up, the momentum is building. I am going to take my own advice, catchya tomorrow unless something big happens with the printing presses.

Justin
Sep 26, 2011 - 6:58pm

@ Economical Disaster

Since you have such a great memory of my very infrequent posts here on the new website, I openly invite you-and anyone else-to name one other person besides you and Economic Analyst(assuming you aren't the same person from the old blog) that I've fought with, argued with, called names and/or berated who didn't agree with me. BenRoberts excluded as my response to him was respectable with the exception of saying I was adding something he said to my list of stupid shit I've read this year.

The only other time you and I have exchanged words was met with you calling me the resident bully when the only person I had been unfriendly towards on this site at the time was you and only on that one exchange. I rarely post here which hardly could be reason to label me the resident bully. Now, if you are also the person who went by the handle of Economic Analyst on the old blog then I can understand why you have beef with me. I stand by my opinion of you or the two of you, whichever is the case.

I'll remind you of your own advice you generously submitted to me last time we chatted... USE THE IGNORE BUTTON if you don't want to read my posts.

HiHoAg Velocity
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:01pm

Velocity

"You want to stop Go' Sucks getting anymore bailouts or stop JP Morgan stiffing the Silver market (again)? Stop Paying Your Taxes"

Are you serious??? The members of this website are definitely more "liberal" with their ideas than mainstream Americana but you think the answer is to stop paying your taxes? Serious? Just gonna get you in jail. That is some jihad radical shit!!! Definitely not a solution to the shit we are all in.

Turdle GG
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:07pm

Saxo Bank silver chart

Remember in the law suit against JPM the details about the signalling done through the Saxo trading platform?

I use that platform.

Just over one hour ago (7:50 am my time), on the 5 minute spot silver chart there was a strange development. The high on the 5 minute bar was 30.68, while the low was 28.63...

I have no way of knowing the volume at that low price of 28.63, so don't know what it means. Strangely, the 1 minute chart does not show the spike down. But all higher time frames (10 mins, 15 mins, etc.) do show it.

I do not want to be alarmist, but thought I would at least throw this info out there.

turnoffthewater Shill
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:09pm

I bet that underwater silver

Shill,

Even though the salvage company signed a contract and was guaranteed an 80% recovery rate, as soon as, the silver is top side (out of the water), the contract will be renegoed. Same as what happened with the wreck in Florida in the 90's. Govt's are lazy.

Cheers

Turn

Chris P. Bacon
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:13pm

@Mikey

Right click on the vid in DPHs post then click 'watch on youtube' copy that link when it loads and email it out!

margaritatime
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:19pm

@Scott - CoT stuff

Scott - backing up a ways (sorry I wasn't around the entire day); you mentioned CoT rigging - and not only do I agree, but I think it is pretty obvious it is rigged to some degree. To begin with a premise I will say this;

I know the math, I know the state of global economics, and I don't need reports to educate me or try to convince me otherwise. However, as I have said before [and I know we agree on this] it is the market perception / psychology of what the rest of herd is doing that I try to anticipate for my own leveraging - and much of that is revealed in OI and CoT data. Whether I like or not, or agree or not is irrelevant. I have to know what the herd mentality is in order to leverage.

But again, I don't look in to OI or CoT for a direction that I am going, I just use it as a barometer of where the mass psychology is headed.

I love your posts Scott. Keep up the great work.

p.s. Peeps do be vigilant of expiry tomorrow. Not saying I am right, but this might be a minor recovery followed by another downward movement after expiry. The volume on Asian markets will be very foretelling in that regard.

Bay of Pigs
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:19pm

Prices

Forgive me, but when has gold or silver ever gone up 30-35% in a couple of days. Answer? Never.

Those who are saying we need "slow and steady" metal increases crack me up. It's nonsense. Adjusting for inflation, we're hundreds of dollars below a new real high for gold (around $2400)and a hundred dollars below a new high for silver ($130-140).

No, what we need is true price discovery and and end to cartel manipulation and suppression. Then we might have an idea of what gold and silver are really worth (value). If we ever see this, prices will indeed explode and for good reasons.

Some perspective and historical analysis would be nice when people are calling tops and bubbles at $1920 and $48. It just isn't true. Nothing but MOPE.

Bay of Pigs
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:26pm

@Dr Durden

Price of bread in Maui at some stores in already above $6. Milk at $8 a gallon.

You have to get stuff on sale everywhere you go. Food inflation is awful. Many people are hurting badly.

Tom L
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:26pm

@BlueSky

You do me a great honor with your statement sir. thank you. I wish I shared your confidence, or someone else's ability to trade based on my analysis or both. comma dammit.

But, that said, I did add not only those $9 SVM Nov. Calls, but some $7 Nov HL calls as well. I'd be shocked if we didn't at least see a move to 560 if not a stab at 575 tomorrow. This move was so overdone it's really not that tough to figure out.

Yes, something awful can happen tonight, but nothing is certain in this life except uncertainty.

I would, though, continue to think in 'sell the rally' terms until we're back above $1800 gold and $40 silver. That would take the HUI back over 580 and possibly 610, negating any chance of another washout down to 511.

The key for me that last night's move in gold and silver was overdone was WTIC not breaking down below $79.50. If the 'deflation' trade was truly on, then WTIC would have moved through the july/aug low of $75 back towards $67. It didn't which means that the market still believes money pumping is coming.

Ta,

ReachWest
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:27pm

Convincing Others

My strategy to try to convince others (friends and family) is simple - I give them the tools to learn it for themselves. I don't lecture and don't force my opinion (have done that in the past and it's useless).

What I do, is buy a book for them on Amazon and have it delivered directly to them .. I send out either Peter Schiff's "Crash Proof" or Mike Maloney's "Investing in Gold and Silver". These are great starter books and those that can be convinced of the coming changes will read the books and do further research - the ones that can't, won't bother. (While there may be better book sources - I find these particular books are pretty easy reads and present the necessary info to make people aware).

I've sent out about 20 books so far and about 1/4 of the recipients have figured it out for themselves and are now preparing too. (The others - well, they just keep going with their normalcy bias point of view).

Just my 2 pennies worth on that subject.

exiledbear
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:28pm

In general about cow orkers

I never ever gave out financial advice unless ASKED for it. And even then, I gave the standard spiel about how I'm not a licensed professional and that THEY are responsible for their own losses and profits before I started giving out advice that was asked for.

You'll find most people just don't want to hear it. Not everyone is going to make it, you know. Even amongst this crowd, which DOES want to hear it, a lot of you are not going to make it. There's a good chance I won't make it either. But that doesn't disturb me as much as it used to.

margaritatime
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:37pm

@exiled

Yep, well said. Especially after this little wave, I have learned my lesson offering my hand. Sad part is, when this market reverses they will be the first ones lining up for advice again.

I just don't have it in me anymore. Your words are spot on though - not everyone will make it. And after the sentiment I have seen even on this board by a few in the past couple of days, I agree; not everyone here will make it either.

Turdle GG
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:38pm

Options help, anyone?

I'm interested in looking at long-dated (12 month plus) calls on mining stocks.

I understand that there are active long-dated options in GDX and SLW.

(And GLD and SLV, but I want to concentrate only on mining stocks)

Any other large, liquid ones?

Also, no doubt implied volatility is now very high - any comment on that?

Any other traps/pointers, etc. would be appreciated. Thank you.

margaritatime
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:45pm

Trader Dan

As always he cracks me up! This line from today, "those with bi-polar disorder are going to be looking downright tranquil and serene", absolutely cracked me up! Sometimes the weirdest things make me laugh. Case in point.

Sadly I was on my tablet stopping off for coffee when I read it... Nothing like cracking up in a line full of people to reinforce the fact that I am indeed crazy.

tyberious
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:52pm

Please

Please tell how the hell Perry became the front runner? Paul has been winning all the straw polls and the debates!!!!

https://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/perry-remains-gop-frontrunner-gap-ro...

The Vet Turdle GG
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:55pm

Turdle - You might be interested in this post...

Some musings of mine on synthetics which have the advantage of cancelling out the volatility and time premiums which causes the price erosion of long dated calls. You must however understand that while these positions are "free" from a cash outlay point of view, you are responsible to buy the stock at the put strike price if it is assigned to you and you need the cash or margin in the account to cover this event.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/510957#comment-510957

aurum argentum
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:57pm
MollyRatchet
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:57pm

@ Ivars

Great post sir ... glad to hear from you, Welcome to the club !!

Your comments regarding silver and gold movements have been stellar and I hope more people on this site read and heed your work .. it is quite intriguing ..

Bikerspade ... thanks for the initial information from Ivars on Sapos ...

Redwood ..thanks for the acknowledgement ..

- Michael (MR)

Haole tyberious
Sep 26, 2011 - 7:59pm

"Please tell how the hell

"Please tell how the hell Perry became the front runner? Paul has been winning all the straw polls and the debates!!!!"

You think political outcomes, polling, etc. are void of manipulation?

Turdle GG
Sep 26, 2011 - 8:00pm

Just got this email from my broker

MARGIN INCREASE FOR GOLD AND SILVER FROM TUESDAY 27TH SEPTEMBER

Due to the recent market volatility in Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG), the margins required for Spot and Forward Metals and Spot Metal Options from Tuesday 27th September 2011 at 14:00pm (CET) where:

  • the margin required for Gold (XAU) positions will increase from 6% to 8%
  • the margin required for Silver (XAG) positions will increase from 6% to 12%

[My broker is CBS in Australia. It uses the Saxo Bank platform, as many other brokers do around the world. Not clear if this margin increase is a decision from Saxo, or just from my broker. I will ask]

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