TFMR Podcast #2

Sat, Sep 24, 2011 - 11:23am

In what will become a regular, bi-weekly segment, I proudly give you podcast #2. This week's guest is Gonzalo Lira. Many of you are familiar with Gonzalo's work but, for those of you that aren't, this hour-long discussion will be a real eye-opener. This was recorded on Wednesday, before the late-week carnage and, frankly, I don't recall if we spent much time discussing "Operation Twist". No matter. The discussion is more about where we go from here and the important work that Gonzalo does at his sites, and Enjoy.

p.s. I was able to fix the feedback problem but we did experience a little audio trouble this week. I should have anticipated a little audio lag in the connection between Gonzalo in Chile and my location in Anytown, USA. Oops. Not too big of a problem but occasionally noticeable and for that I apologize. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 24, 2011 - 11:30am

Thanks T

Thanks for what you do TF!

Alex Costa
Sep 24, 2011 - 11:32am


Second, but my first ever comment.

Urban Roman
Sep 24, 2011 - 11:46am

Doctor Copper

Listening now.

Gonzalo reminds us that copper warned us ... it seems Dr. Copper was right again!

Sep 24, 2011 - 11:47am

We will restructure, become stronger/Fed.'s survival instincts

Russia May Lend $3.4 Billion to Cyprus as Fiscal Woes Mount Q

By Scott Rose and Stelios Orphanides - Sep 23, 2011 12:19 PM ETFri Sep 23 16:19:52 GMT 2011

Russia may lend as much as 2.5 billion euros ($3.4 billion) to Cyprus by the end of the year as the eastern Mediterranean island seeks cheaper funding amid surging borrowing costs.

“We’ll probably reach a final agreement only by the end of the year, no sooner,” Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak told reporters late yesterday in Washington.

The amount will depend on the country’s needs, he said..


DPH: To myself, the story above is somewhat irrelevant. The real story is the fact that Russia defaulted on it's debts about two decades ago (longer?) and is now in a position of strength and ctually loaning money out and dictating terms.

I realize that the Russian Ruble was never, and will never be, the reserve currency that the USD still is. But what it goes to show imho, is that a default by the US will not be the end of the world. Just look at what Russia has been able to do since it shed it's liabilities and consolidated it's position financially. I'm not advocating for a U.S. default but I do think the U.S. Pols. and the Fed. believe they can reorganize and restructure by moving the balance sheet around so that the revenue and liabilities don't look as bad to the rest of the world as it really is.

The one thing I've noticed since 2007/2008 is that no one on Wall St. or D.C. has a problem with changing the financial accounting standards to suit their needs. When I continually hear our Pols. and Fed. state that it is not possible for the U.S. to default due to the Reserve Status and the printing press etc. it tells me that they will try the largest accounting "restructuring" in the history of the world at some point while never, ever showing anyone the Fed.'s real balance sheet.

After witnessing what just happened over the past fews days, and now just fully realizing the power and scope of the Fed. and their willingness to do "whatever it takes" to survive and manipulate the entire planet, I'm left with one thought for the most part.

They created the system, they have perfected the system and they will use their system anyway they seem fit whenever it needs to be used for their purposes and no one else's. Period

The Fed. is the system.

They own the system and they realize no one can do anything about it short of a major military confrontation that I don't think any major nation wants. Raising the USD as the worlds currency flag after WWII and demonstrating to the world that we will do whatever is necessary to win (Atomic bombs) left a indelible mark on the psyche of the world that we can pull anything off and that we are unpredictable by nature and basically cut throat in all matters militarily and financially. They would be correct.

Are we not witnessing the same thing today sans the nuclear weapons, so far? The power of the Fed/USD and the ingrained thought of what we will do to certain countries/regions is something those of us here in North America can't even imagine. The rest of the world realizes it. I'm not just talking military actions. The financial warfare going in many places (Libya also) can't be denied.

The Fed. realizes their powers and is feeling strong to this day. Is there any doubt remaining?

(I realize many of you can't stand the U.S. and it's tactical advantages and I'm not chest thumping. I'm stating what I believe to be the truth about what the Fed. and U.S. are capable of and have done in the past in order for the future to be mostly unchallenged in many ways. It seems to have worked and it shows no sign of weakening appreciably in the near future)

Sep 24, 2011 - 11:50am

Thanks TF!

Dropped a few FRNs in your tip jar,

I visit the site regularly so I can justify supporting the platform,

Thank you for YOUR time TF invested in educating others!

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:05pm

help with podcast

for anyone out there for some reason I can only receive about 1 min of the podcast am I doing something wrong?


Sep 24, 2011 - 12:11pm


I jotted down a summary of GSR on the last thread here;

Hard Rain
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:34pm

Do you guys rest?

You guys have stamina for the incessant postings and for keeping this site going! I applaud you!

I am primarily a stacker, looking at a long term time line - over 20 years.

So, I sympathize with you guys for what you are going through with the blatant manipulation. Do you really think that the margin hikes weren't pre-planned and leaked- before the G-20 and IMF meetings?

Of course they were, to their partners in crime.

I take solace in the face that premiums have gone up even more. This is the number one indicator of the disconnect between paper and physical(imo).

As a stacker, my value in fiat when I do a mathematical conversion is down. HOWEVER, MY NUMBER OF OZS HAVE STAYED THE SAME.

And this is how I have chosen and will continue to choose to measure my preparation.

Do you think the Indian and Chinese care what the margins are? No.

They are more than 50% of global demand. They are loving this takedown.

And so should anyone here interested in preparation and financial protection for what is inevitable.

Dollar cost average and keep stacking. That's my motto.


Hard Rain
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:43pm

Question on Margins?

Just curious:

With the raising of margins (criminally and leaked), do you think there will be margin calls that will further drive down prices on Monday?

Thoughts anyone?

I have quite a bit of dry powder and I am trying to determine when to deploy (phyzz only).


Sep 24, 2011 - 12:49pm

It's just Kills ME!

It's like turning on the Weather Channel and seeing a HUGE hurricane coming.

This hurricane.......let's call it Hurricane Keynes, is so BIG it's going to cover the entire nation. No home will be spared.

And all of a sudden......BAM! Your home owners insurance rates just went down 25%

AWESOME! Let's see how long that lasts. Keep stacking.

Sep 24, 2011 - 1:16pm

Repost; Don't Fall for the Disinfo Agents!

This is a repost from the end of the last thread. This is a great buying opportunity, but some folks don't want you to think so. These are current actual prices, not the incorrect ones postes by Skyezz.

@ Skyezz; Don't know if you're intentionally misleading, or if you just don't do your research very well. I find it hard to believe that someone could be wrong wrong so many times in a row without actively trying.

skyezz wrote:
Pretty big disconnect from spot paper price...

DBS Coins $40.18

Golden Eagle Coins $42.08

Texas Precious Metals $45.88

Gainesville Coins $48.12

APMEX $48.92

Bullion Direct $50.52

Blanchard Online $53.44

Kitco $65.70

I've personally dealt with Texas Metals, Bullion Direct and Gainesville, and I found it hard to believe the prices you posted, so I checked. These are all ASE prices.

"Texas Precious Metals $45.88"

Just checked and they're $34.92, $34.05 for quantity

"Gainesville Coins $48.12"

Checked again and they're $35.18, $34.27 in quantity

"Bullion Direct $50.52"

Wrong again, they're $35.22

You do everyone a disservice by posting these figures... just look at it; you're off over $5,000.00 a box on all of them!

I'll personally sell you a box of my ASE's for 10% less than any of the prices you posted. How could you say no to a 10% discount?? Fair enough? PM me for payment instructions.

Chicken Little
Sep 24, 2011 - 1:22pm

Radio Show on Precious Metals

Great podcast Turd. Thanks.

Before Turd and ZeroHedge, for me there was Harold Seigel. I have since graduated to TFMR and ZeroHedge, but every once in a while when I need an extra head shake I go back to Harold and listen for the 40 minutes.

Harold Seigel is the reason I first got into PM’s. Harold has a weekly 40 minute radio show on several Canadian AM stations. This show has been running for about 10 years. He does preach his own book which is World Wide Precious Metals and Coloured Diamonds, but the discussion is current and factual.

The show is PM’s for newbs. The emphasis is on physical non-leveraged investing. Each show discusses the previous weeks events. Lots of facts, theories and speculation. I thought this weeks discussion of the recent plunge was good.

Perhaps Harold could do a Turd podcast.

If some Turdites would like to listen to a broadcast here is the link. I hope you enjoy. Click on "Recent Shows".

Regards, Chicken

Sep 24, 2011 - 1:30pm

Interesting account on internet trolling - PSYOPS

This site has (thankfully) been remarkably clean of said hatemongers, detractors and disinfo agents. Nevertheless, the link above is perhaps an interesting perspective on who and why might be behind said activity -- in addition, of course, to the vast, directly federally funded infrastructure laid out in the report below. The specific section most involved in this is here -- the Ministry of Truth:

It seems that (not surprisingly) private corporations may be just as active (though in the case of BofA, one can be justified in questioning whether it's a federal agency or a private entity -- and in general, the line is quite blurry anyway).

For an interesting perspective on how long and how successful this particular form of perception management has been going on, take a look at some of these interviews:

Sep 24, 2011 - 1:36pm

Greek Default Announced?

Zero Hedge are talking about a "managed default" from Greece, seems this is inevitable no matter how many times it is refuted. If this is the case then the unlimited dollar liquidity and the market smash down in PMs could foretell next weeks recapitalisation and systemic bailout?

Perhaps its just wishfull thinking that JPM are closing down their shorts in a co-ordinated move with the FED and the G20 before all hell breaks loose.... we live in interesting times for sure.

Murphy's laws come into play in this environment, the most applicable being;

If you perceive that there are four possible ways in which something can go wrong, and circumvent these, then a fifth way, unprepared for, will promptly develop

RaRaRasputin Aronnax
Sep 24, 2011 - 1:36pm

Love GL looking forward to hearing it

but right now it's early evening in the UK and thought I would share what we are currently listening to - because it seems prescient

Right Here, Right Now by Fatboy Slim [Official Video]

We're partying hard here (no kids!!) so hope that everyone has a fab w/end


Sep 24, 2011 - 1:37pm

http://www.economicfreefall.c Maybe in the past few days our political leaders got the cover and excuse they needed to dilute our currencies further and inject even more liquidity into the system? Some comments from the ongoing G20 meeting: "We commit to take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required," the group, including the United States and China, said in a communique after a dinner meeting on Thursday. Then we have Geithner who just loves the smell of newly printed money: "'I am very confident they're going to move in the direction of expanding (their) effective financial capacity,' he said. 'They're just trying to figure out how to get there in a way that is politically attractive.'" A third voice in the same article: "'We need to see concrete action involving coordinated monetary policy easing globally and a massive increase in the firing power of the EFSF or the ECB to buy bonds in indebted European countries,' said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney."Read full Reuters article here Money will soon come to the rescue my friends. Just be patient. In the meantime, use this downdraft as practice to prepare mentally for the real collapse. The one when bonds and currencies are no longer wanted. Then you will feel some real panic.

Sep 24, 2011 - 1:48pm

Stupidest News Report Ever re Gold

(Not sure which is the main thread right now, so re-posting this here)

The local television news played a short bit yesterday regarding the drop in Gold prices. The sad fact is that this is probably what many in the public believe.

[sarc] Yup - as we all know - Gold isn't backed by anything, but the USD is fully backed and safe! [/sarc]

Wow - a whole bunch of people are in for a rude awakening.

Video unavailable
Sep 24, 2011 - 1:48pm

Brother John "$100 Silver by Jan."

Don't know how many of you are following BrotherJohnF, but his latest call was right on the money. His 'short AGQ' position convinced me to do the same, and helped my portfolio from totally disentegrating. Only problem was, my position was way too small and I sold too soon, because I just don't like being short, it makes me nervous. (Except for my JPM shorts!)

So i just watched his latest video and in the comments section someone asked if he was still projecting $100 silver by January and he said yes! Also said he was long AGQ now.

RaRaRasputin RaRaRasputin
Sep 24, 2011 - 1:50pm

And here's one for you Turd

before I get too p**sed

Praise You by Fatboy Slim [Official Video]

Love everything that you do man!


Sep 24, 2011 - 2:01pm


What does "default" even mean anymore? Greece has been in a state of default for years, so has the U.S. and most Western "nations". Every time the U.S. has raised the debt ceiling they have fundamentally defaulted, no? There is no such thing as real sovereign default when trillions of units of "liquidity" can be just punched-up on keyboards and legislated into "fiscal policy" by what seems to be now a global monetary authority of some description managed by vampires. Politics and "printing presses" are the only things holding this global financial f***fest together anymore.

I don't want to play this dumb game anymore.

@ReachWest: That little clip is representative of just how full retard the world has become. What is gold backed by!? OMFG!

THANKS for a great interview Turd!

Sep 24, 2011 - 2:03pm

@Reach West

That gold "news" report was hilarious!

Funny, the following may be a clip of that, uh, same girl before she exited her career in education, dyed her hair black and became a crack financial reporter:

Miss Teen USA 2007 - South Carolina answers a question - YouTube

Matt Foley ReachWest
Sep 24, 2011 - 2:05pm


I don't believe it. I don't know if I should laugh or cry.

Heading back to the van, see ya guys later. LOL

Baaad Kittaaay
Sep 24, 2011 - 2:07pm

Thoughts please ....

.... On the €2t bailout and effects on pm's???

Sep 24, 2011 - 2:13pm

re- thoughts

Bullish...... Bearish..... who the hell knows?

York Rite
Sep 24, 2011 - 2:26pm

Telegraph's monster euro bailout story

Multi-trillion plan to save the eurozone being prepared

European officials are working on a grand plan to restore confidence in the single currency area that would involve a massive bank recapitalisation, giving the bail-out fund several trillion euros of firepower, and a possible Greek default.

Sep 24, 2011 - 2:42pm

Lira's scenarios

  • Scenario I: “Hyperinflation in America”
  • Scenario II: “Exit America”
  • Scenario III: “When The Euro Breaks”
  • Scenario IV: “An Israeli-Iranian War?” (Live web seminar for SPG Members only: August 16)
  • Scenario V: “Then They Came For My IRA” (September 23)
  • Scenario VI: “Revolution In China” (November 4)
  • Scenario VII: “The End of Globalization” December 9, 2011
Sep 24, 2011 - 2:49pm

Thanks TF!

Thanks for information TF!

Sep 24, 2011 - 2:53pm

Answers to all questions!

Communiqué Of The Twenty-Fourth Meeting Of The IMFC: Collective Action For Global Recovery - Chaired By Mr. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister Of Singapore And Minister For Finance Washington, DC, September 24, 2011 Date 24/09/2011 The global economy has entered a dangerous phase, calling for exceptional vigilance, coordination and readiness to take bold action from members and the IMF alike. We are encouraged by the determination of our euro-area colleagues to do what is needed to resolve the euro-area crisis. We welcome that the IMF stands ready to strongly support this effort as part of its global role. **************** Today we agreed to act decisively to tackle the dangers confronting the global economy. These include sovereign debt risks, financial system fragility, weakening economic growth and high unemployment. Our circumstances vary, but our economies and financial systems are closely inter-linked. We will therefore act collectively to restore confidence and financial stability, and rekindle global growth. The advanced economies are at the core of an effective resolution of current global stresses. The strategy is to restore sustainable public finances while ensuring continued economic recovery. Taking into account different national circumstances, advanced economies will adopt policies to build confidence and support growth, and implement clear, credible and specific measures to achieve fiscal consolidation. Euro-area countries will do whatever is necessary to resolve the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and ensure the financial stability of the euro area as a whole and its member states. This includes implementing the euro-area Leaders’ decision of July 21 to increase the flexibility of the European Financial Stability Facility, maximizing its impact, and improve euro-area crisis management and governance. Advanced economies will ensure that banks have strong capital positions and access to adequate funding; maintain accommodative monetary policies as long as this is consistent with price stability, bearing in mind international spillovers; revive weak housing markets and repair household balance sheets; and undertake structural reforms to boost jobs and the medium-term growth potential of their economies. Emerging market and developing economies, which have displayed remarkable stability and growth, are also key to an effective global response. The strategy is to adjust macro-economic policies, where needed, to rebuild policy buffers, contain overheating and enhance our resilience in the face of volatile capital flows. Surplus economies will continue to implement structural reforms to strengthen domestic demand, supported by continued efforts that achieve greater exchange rate flexibility, thereby contributing to global demand and the rebalancing of growth. Fostering inclusive growth and creating jobs are priorities for all of us. We reaffirm the importance of the financial sector reform agenda and are committed to its full and timely implementation. We will continue our coordinated efforts to strengthen the regulation of systemically important financial institutions, establish mechanisms for orderly domestic and cross-border resolution of troubled financial institutions, and address risks posed by shadow banking. We call on the Fund to play a key role in contributing to an orderly resolution of the current crisis and prevention of future crises. We welcome the Consolidated Multilateral Surveillance Report as an important tool to focus our discussions on key risks and policy issues. We welcome the directions set out in the Managing Director’s Action Plan. In particular, we encourage the Fund to focus on the following priorities and report to the IMFC at our next meeting: • A more integrated, evenhanded, and effective surveillance framework that better captures risks to economic and financial stability, drawing on the Fund’s Triennial Surveillance Review and spillover reports; • Early assessment of current financing tools and enhancements to the global financial safety net; • Review of the adequacy of Fund resources; • Ensuring adequate policy advice and financing to support low-income countries, including to address volatile food and fuel prices; and • Further work on a comprehensive, flexible, and balanced approach for the management of capital flows, drawing on country experiences. Governance reform is crucial to the legitimacy and the effectiveness of the IMF. We will intensify our efforts to meet the 2012 Annual Meetings target for the entry into force of the 2010 quota and governance reform. We call on the Fund to complete a comprehensive review of the quota formula by January 2013 and to report on progress at our next meeting. We reaffirm the commitment to complete the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas by January 2014. We look forward to further enhancing the role of the IMFC as a key forum for global economic and financial cooperation. We thank Mr. Strauss-Kahn and Mr. Lipsky for their outstanding service at the helm of the Fund in difficult times. We warmly welcome Ms. Lagarde, Mr. Lipton, Ms. Shafik, and Mr. Zhu. Our next meeting will be held in Washington, D.C. on April 21, 2012.

Timber Tim
Sep 24, 2011 - 3:01pm


I think that maybe Russia is trying to buy loyalty.Cyprus position to middle east especially Syria is of strategic importance.Russia has a naval base in Syria.Munitions that where on the way from Iran to Syria,where intercepted in 2009 and stored in Cyprus.Crazily in 100 F heat,until they blew up this year.Taking out a power station.With Cyprus exposure to Greece.Russia is exploiting it future desperation.So there is more going on then meets the eye.People and countries will be asked soon to take sides.

As for can't stand the US.I don't think that is true.There are lots of things wrong with all are western Democracy.But we can improve them.Though sometimes it feels we have no power at all over anything.But this site wouldn't exist inside China and many other countries around the world.So we are better off than most.The US is a great country,it just seems to have lost it's way.All great powers in the world have done this.When the people lose control of there governments,there government lose control.

DPH thanks for all the post you do.I don't know where you find half this stuff.But your pooling power is fantastic.

Sep 24, 2011 - 3:04pm

RE: Lira's view on the benefit of continually expanding economy

This is all well and dandy, Gonzalo -- there is just one problem: the finite capacity of the bottle in which those bacteria are dividing and doubling every X seconds/minutes.

The exponential curve WILL end, one way or the other. I just happen to favor a scenario that results in less than a 50% extinction rate overnight.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Albert Allen Bartlett


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS