ебать! 他妈的 !! באַרען !!!

Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 3:02pm

I'll always remember where I was when silver was crushed for $6 on the Sunday night back in April. I'm sure that I'll never forget the past two days, either. These are amazing times to be alive. Historic.

The main thing that surprises me about all of this is the fact that it is so surprising. I would never have expected a two-day, 25% drop in silver when the open interest on Wednesday was only 111,500 contracts. Similarly, how can gold fall over $200 when the open interest before the fall was under 500,000. The question we need to answer is: Who/what is selling? We'll have to wait to see the Open Interest numbers this afternoon to see where we stood after yesterday and we'll have to wait until Monday for today's numbers. To hear the pundits talk, the PM "bubble" has finally burst as "investors flee for the exits". If that's truly the case, then the OI numbers we get on Monday should show total silver OI of around 80,000 contracts. Gold should drop to something under 450,000. If the OI numbers come in flat to only slightly down, then we've not simply seen a bubble pop. We will have witnessed, over the past 48 hours, a massive manipulative short-selling spree the likes of which we've never seen before. I'll leave it at that for now because it would be useless to speculate further before we see the actual numbers on Monday.

At any rate, the pre-close drop we discussed on the earlier thread did, in fact, materialize earlier as gold briefly touched 1632 about 90 minutes ago. With that behind us, the worst may be over. May be over. The gap on the daily chart from 8/7 has finally been filled and all of this certainly appears overdone. However, do not be surprised by some follow-through selling Sunday night and into Monday. There will be a sharp rebound next week, of that you can be certain, but I would thoroughly discourage you from trying to catch it. In the immortal words of the 70s icons, Paper Lace: Billy, don't be a hero!

The beating that silver has taken is simply preposterous. I'm not even going to try to explain it other than to state again: When the regulators don't care and the market is dominated by JPMs tenuous short position, periods like these are going to continue to happen. Does that mean your physical silver is a stupid investment? Hell no! But if you're going to base your happiness, sanity and willingness to protect yourself financially upon the whims of an unfairly manipulated, 100:1 leveraged paper silver futures market, maybe you should just give up and head back over to Y! Finance and Mad Money. If you truly believe as I do that we are in the death throes of the Keynesian Experiment, you'll use this opportunity to stack even more physical and laugh at the absurd irrationality of the last two days.

That's all for today. Please be sure to check the site tomorrow morning as I will be publishing another TF Metals Report podcast for your enjoyment. It's about an hour long and well worth the listen. Have a great Friday evening and be sure to keep it all in perspective. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 23, 2011 - 11:50pm


Never served, but Brother-in-arms we are. De Opresso Liber! To free the oppressed, we must first free ourselves. Like you, I take measures to maintain my independence. And I do not intend to sadden you or others with the open statement that I am not free and I know it. Just trying to keep grounded, to know myself. Change what is within our power to change, the rest leave up to God. I am preparing and when the time comes, this hyena will join the local fight. In the end, it's our interaction with people that matters, no? They will need to be taught to yearn for freedom again.


Sep 23, 2011 - 11:50pm


Not only that, but inflation/deflation has been the bane of many well to do economists. These things take so much time to unwind that whatever your guess is whether it be inflation or deflation you better double your time frame. Its the death of economists trying to time either of these two.


Long John
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:54pm

Come Monday...

.....it will be alright.... https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=hhiTsLr29XA ......just kidding' it won't be till Tuesday.~ see you next tuesday

Sep 23, 2011 - 11:55pm


Exactly. In regards to the "spot" price decoupling from the paper price that is a little misleading. I have ordered from nearly all of those sites, my latest purchase being today from Texas Metals. The reason why $45.88 is the price is the fact that there is an $11 s/h charge. The spot is actually $34.92 plus the $11 for s/h. I ordered 100 oz yesterday, and another 100 oz today. My shipping yesterday and today was only 15.95. So in essence my sell price was only .15 per ASE above their spot sell price. Its quite late though maybe I am not thinking right and I have had a little to drink. Someone help me out here.


Timber Tim
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:58pm

@stormdancer inflation/deflation

Thats easy stormdancer,things go up,things go down.Education wasn't wasted on me.

Sep 23, 2011 - 11:58pm

Gold Chart...Retest of 100day MA

Really not so bad... especially considering the fact that the gap was intentionally left when gold took off. This 100 day moving average retest was cooked in the books... almost as if the pricing of gold has already been mapped out.... there for you to discover....

The question is will it hold or are the paper games going slide into even more disbelief? We will find out soon.... but this graph doesn't look so scary from this perspective. Especially considering the extreme oversold conditions. A big bounce will come from this... nothing goes straight down or straight up. A healthy retest of some key moving averages before a big new move is to be expected from this purely technical standpoint.

Gold is above its 100 day moving average after one of the worst hammerings in two days it has experienced in some time, alongside silver....(which may be being hit b/c of physical shortages/only thing they can do).

The amount of fear generated is insane for the relative perspective compared to say... banking stocks that are all under their 200day moving averages and are in need of a bailout or are going to fail? Needless to say those bankouts will be very gold positive. Sleep well turdites.... this will be a wound in the greater battle underway. If we can learn from it, we can flourish.

Sep 23, 2011 - 11:58pm

Silver take down dates

Not sure if someone has mentioned this already, but what are the odds that the two biggest drops in silver would occur on the day we supposedly got Bin Laden, and on the day the Palestinians make a bid for statehood? On top of that, happening on important dates in the occult, May 1 and September 23 (Fall equinox). Almost seems ritualistic or trying to direct or redirect energy.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:05am

The elite's gold?

Wouldn't it be poetic justice for the elite's to go to their vaults one day and discover that their 5T worth of bullion (75 000 tonnes est) was somehow missing? They would piss their pants! Where do you think these fuckers have theur vaults?

NW VIEW Hammer
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:09am

@ Hammer

Yes "black market bartering" will spring up in time. However, that is a long way down the road. After the walls came down and travel was easier, I spent some time in the Ukraine. The only action in those early days was black market. The stores were empty, bread lines, and a gas station with gas for sale was impossible to find. When someone ran out of gas, they just pulled over, opened their trunk (the boot for you in G.B. or RSA) and pulled out their trading stock. If you were sick and went to a doctor with their social medical system , one could die while waiting in line, unless you flashed a few fiat American bucks. We were pulled over for speeding and the officer said he would throw the driver in jail or give him a dollar.

It will be a long time before we get to that place in America. The difference will be , they will ask for a maple leaf and the fiat will be trash. I learned to live on mashed potatoes, fried cabbage, pickled tomatoes and juice. Their gardens and stored produce saved them from total hunger. Mr. T.F. is committed to getting us prepared in all areas and many on this international board are light years ahead in their understanding of being prepared.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:09am

Inflation vs. Deflation

The question is absurd for the following:

1) Price is Nominal not Cardinal.

2) Never use CPI as a broad measure of collective price changes through time.

3) Always use M3 as a measure of fiat currency.

4) A cartel of counterfeiters controls the currency, so never trust M3 (if they report it!)

5) Individual actors in the economy are not free, therefore price is meaningless.

6) If, by the grace of God, some small corner of the globe contains free people, see #1 above.


Sep 24, 2011 - 12:10am

"I'm not entirely convinced

"I'm not entirely convinced physical has delaminated from the electronic gold prices, but it wouldn't surprise me if it has."

It would surprise me if it has. The EE seem desperate, but they're not that stupid. They won't risk blowing up their paper manipulation scheme. If physical prices disconnect, then only for a certain amount of time. They will bring paper prices back in line with physical prices so they can continue acting like their price discovery mechanism is legit.

Oh and Bay of Pigs, regarding my earlier post, I didn't hate on Sprott. I have nothing against the guy.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:11am


Not where us mere mortals would ever be able to gain access. And probably very distributed, definitely not in one single location.. how stupid would that be.

Sub-MOA UncleFester
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:11am

Uncle Fester

You got it...Let us promote that we are not serfs but free, independent agents coalesced in a society where we must navigate and exist in an environment that, like any environment, produces obstacles and limitations (TPTB). Some of these influences are immutable, unavoidable and to be endured (taxes, rules, regulations, etc) with others subject to our direct modification and to a certain extent, to be ignored if not directly confronted. If we as citizens (vice serfs) do not insist on our independence, no one else will either.

Good hunting tomorrow (Waidmannsheil!)

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:12am

Good one donno!

I reckon we need to seek out and destroy they who are pulling the strings.

Timber Tim
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:14am


Just cut the strings.

Bay of Pigs
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:19am


Look at how oversold gold is right now. Amazing. This "correction" is already "long in the tooth".

Imagine the world waking up to the fact that much of the "gold" held by CB's is not there? Hint: It isn't. Leased and swapped out. Multiple claims, multiple owners.

h/t donnojackshit

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:25am


Stand up and be counted, but when is it time? There is financial pain coming to all, no avoiding it! We are quickly approaching the apex, the crossroad. Take my 401K, Roth IRA, Mutual funds, fiat in the bank, all my paper wealth, all of it! But leave my children free, fair trade. Take it all AND enslave my kids...

Thanks for the kind words, have a shot of Jager for me. G'night.


Long John
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:25am

eric o...

..... Thank you~

Bay of Pigs
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:28am


Please head over to Mish's and post that. I've had no luck in many years with the deflationist crowd over there. ;o)

And welcome aboard jimmyjack. Appreciate your impressive historical perspective and knowledge on gold.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:28am

Iowegian / Sentiment

I would like to participate to the thoughts of: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/34430#comment-34430

What do you all think about the following article: https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30580.html :

Bernanke has played a smart move here as he moves into the Twist operation. Effectively he has killed the game in the town: Borrow short and invest long term/play the commodities game. By announcing an intention to sell short curve, FED has now signaled its desire to bring down commodities in a heap. It is a one handle move to strangle speculative bank/hedge fund positions. Will there be a systemic crisis? Am not yet sure but I think the FED would have thought about this.

Now once he has seen the equity and commodities classes to have corrected *adequately*, I believe, there will be a strong case for QE in Nov citing the slowdown and fall in equity prices. Bernanke may even be lauded for his efforts to curb speculative borrowing by doing Twist operation in Sept and not doing QE till the time it was really required.

We believe over the next few weeks, Gold and copper and all leveraged classes of asset will take a beating like not seen since 2008. The herd of investment funds will then join towards the end of the crash only to be left holding the baton at the end of the move.


So while the short term bonds are breaking support and about to induce a wave of de-leveraging across assets, the 30 year which supports the dollar has broken out. As we said above, the FED knows what it is doing. This is a deliberate aim to curb commodities more than anything. They need to inject capital into the economy but cannot do so until they have asset inflation under control.


​Gold has knifed through 50dma. Expect a bounce back to close out the gaps but we have clearly now pierced the 18 months uptrend. This is why we believe Gold is just as leveraged as any other asset. By one stroke, Bernanke killed the entire asset inflation train or at least made an effort. Gold was a direct result of the short curve borrowing existent over the last 2 years.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:30am

The coin market is different from the 100oz spot bar market


I suppose they could manipulate the EBay auctions, but I don't see a profitable way for them to do so. Basically, they'd be playing as a charity, in handing out $200 and $300 discounts on what the coins are selling for now. I don't see anyone willing to lease out bullion coins, for instance. Something tells me they would be snapped up and taken off the market if they were to do so.

And to those big players, these 1oz coins are chickenfeed, too small to bother with. If they were to manipulate them, I'd suspect their first instinct would just be to pressure Ebay to stop allowing auctions of them, ie - shut them all up. Either that or start making the data behind the price discovery on Ebay sooper sekrit.

BTW, last trade on Ebay is $1850 at 9/23/11 9:49PM.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:32am


I remember reading recently that Ebay was going to stop offering ebaybucks or whatever they are called on bullion sales. Could this be the manipulation you are speaking of?

jimmyjames stoneeh
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:33am

"Here I am a young guy

"Here I am a young guy that

actually purchases gold and silver and is taken to the cleaners for 25% in 2 days without anyone even knowing WTF has happened.


I hold lots of Gold and I'm also extremely long USD's and i would trade it all for your age-

You did not get taken to the cleaners-

You are measuring wrong-

Measure in Gold and keep your chin up-it's never about how much money we have (Zimbabwe) it's what our money can buy (S&P/DOW/Gold ratio-

Am i worse off if one dollar can buy me 4 beer or if 20 dollars can buy me 4 beer?

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:36am

@backseat driver

BSD, it is my contention that the issue of inflation and deflation is purposely confused by the PTB because a unified understanding of it would expose their monetary games faster than anything else I know.

They have confused the issue by confusing the terms. They've been so successful at it that in every case I've seen, multiple participants in a debate will use the words inflation and deflation repeatedly, without realizing their opposite means something totally different when they use it.

The result is abject confusion, with strident, emotional defenses rallying around misunderstood definitions...and not even a remote possibility of understanding, much less agreement...because the debaters are not even saying the same things!

The PTB have gained two things from this, both very important. 1.) They keep hidden from discussion the single most damning piece of evidence that can expose their monetary thefts, and 2.) The issue becomes so emotionalized and polarizing that it completely divides those trying to discuss it.

The only way I've found to defuse the trap is to insist that my opposite narrowly define EXACTLY what they mean when the words inflation or deflation are used.

Once that is understood, real discussion and debate can ensue....not before.

The issues are not complex once the confusion about terminology is eliminated. Yes, intellectual economist eggheads argue endlessly over the topic...as they were intended to :)

Edit to add: I've experimented with this a number of times with many different people and you know what? Most people I've asked for a definition were surprised to discover that they'd never really thought about it. When pressed for a precise definition they had to think hard and really couldn't provide one.

Again, this is by design. Most of us have picked up a nebulous "working definition" by osmosis, without conscious critical thought or analysis.

Issues like this are one of the main reasons the PTB commissioned the Ford Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation and many others to take over the education system. Through their hand picked pet economists they can make these kinds of issues appear so complex and so dismally boring that most people believe the topic is too deep for anyone without a PhD or it just puts them into a bored coma.

Mission accomplished....

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:37am


My comment wasn't related to Ebay auctions. (I believe it's 1000 oz bars rather than 100 oz that are traded on the commercial physical silver market.)

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:40am


I'm primarily focused on the gold market. Silver for me is an afterthought. Yes, I know silver will one day beat gold to a pulp. There's enough money to go around to everyone who got in early enough, and I got in, in 2004.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:41am

Battle btw Peter Grandich vs. Jon Nadler

Got this from Peter Grandich's daily mail. You might enjoy this battle. Details below.


Grandich Interview

Highlight September 23rd link

And Here’s Jon Nadler’s Email To Me

Posted: 23 Sep 2011 11:07 AM PDT

..just how PATHETIC you are in your desperate quest for publicity?

Advice: Hang on to your $100K life’s savings.

No one (here at least) is listening to you screaming in the vacuum of space.

Jon Nadler [Still] Senior Analyst Kitco Metals Inc. North America US & Canada Toll Free: 1 (877) 839-8036 Websites: www.kitco.com and www.kitco.cn Blog: https://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler E-mail: jnadler[at]kitco[dot]com ———————————————————————————————- Don’t be surprised by his response. Tokyo Rose lives in a delusional world where he is always right and his pompous personality makes him a legend in his own mind. . There are many things one can say about the streak of yellow that runs down his back and the crap that comes out his mouth, but I will travel the road (high) he never travels and just say when thinking of him “there, but for the Grace of God, go I .” (Did I mention he also can’t stand anyone who brings up religion?). . P.S. One more thing, ever notice his title is Senior….? Pity the poor person who’s junior to him (don’t as I doubt anybody could).

P.S.S. I would’ve sent it directly to him but he blocks my emails (and I understand many others).

It’s That Time Again! Gold $1,689 Silver $32.34 and $100,000 Challenge

Posted: 23 Sep 2011 05:34 AM PDT

Ever since first entering the bullish side of gold back just above $300 in 2003, I’ve noted what I called last great buying opportunities before gold and silver moved to higher trading levels. Sometime today I believe such can be the case again. Ideally, I would like to see gold closer to $1,650 and silver $30. But with such volatility in the markets, it’s almost impossible to time such bottoms to the minute or hour. The best course of action may be to step in now and scale down buy to the numbers I spoke about if the market continues to go lower from here on through the day.

My $100,000 Challenge – Nobody has been more wrong on the direction of gold then Jon Nadler. He also has ducked any challenge put to him and instead remains arrogant and in denial of his horrific track record. I hereby am willing to wager $100,000 with him that gold hits $2,000 before it hits $1,400 (about $300 either way). I welcome a financial journalist or recognized investment authority to hold the bet. Come on Tokyo Rose, here’s your chance to redeem your poor record.

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:41am


Or a little too much off the front and top but long in the back, viva la mullet!

Sep 24, 2011 - 12:45am


Heh. From what I gather after reading about it, it acts as basically a 2% discount on what you purchase.

So 0.98x$1850 = 1813. It's a haircut, but not a big one. More like a slight trim off the sides and a little off the top, without touching the sideburns.

Edit: Not just gold bullion. Farm machinery(?!) no longer qualifies for Ebay Bucks either. They have a whole list of things. I suspect this isn't The Conspiracy in action here, but rather Ebay getting spanked from people taking advantage of something that's making them lose money. They wouldn't offer Ebay Bucks if it wasn't making them money, they're not a charity.

jimmyjames Bay of Pigs
Sep 24, 2011 - 12:50am

Bay of Pigs And welcome

Bay of Pigs

And welcome aboard jimmyjack.


That would be james (:


You've always been a rock solid Goldbug--a real gentleman-despite our different views of the end game-

You are friend-


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