ебать! 他妈的 !! באַרען !!!

Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 3:02pm

I'll always remember where I was when silver was crushed for $6 on the Sunday night back in April. I'm sure that I'll never forget the past two days, either. These are amazing times to be alive. Historic.

The main thing that surprises me about all of this is the fact that it is so surprising. I would never have expected a two-day, 25% drop in silver when the open interest on Wednesday was only 111,500 contracts. Similarly, how can gold fall over $200 when the open interest before the fall was under 500,000. The question we need to answer is: Who/what is selling? We'll have to wait to see the Open Interest numbers this afternoon to see where we stood after yesterday and we'll have to wait until Monday for today's numbers. To hear the pundits talk, the PM "bubble" has finally burst as "investors flee for the exits". If that's truly the case, then the OI numbers we get on Monday should show total silver OI of around 80,000 contracts. Gold should drop to something under 450,000. If the OI numbers come in flat to only slightly down, then we've not simply seen a bubble pop. We will have witnessed, over the past 48 hours, a massive manipulative short-selling spree the likes of which we've never seen before. I'll leave it at that for now because it would be useless to speculate further before we see the actual numbers on Monday.

At any rate, the pre-close drop we discussed on the earlier thread did, in fact, materialize earlier as gold briefly touched 1632 about 90 minutes ago. With that behind us, the worst may be over. May be over. The gap on the daily chart from 8/7 has finally been filled and all of this certainly appears overdone. However, do not be surprised by some follow-through selling Sunday night and into Monday. There will be a sharp rebound next week, of that you can be certain, but I would thoroughly discourage you from trying to catch it. In the immortal words of the 70s icons, Paper Lace: Billy, don't be a hero!

The beating that silver has taken is simply preposterous. I'm not even going to try to explain it other than to state again: When the regulators don't care and the market is dominated by JPMs tenuous short position, periods like these are going to continue to happen. Does that mean your physical silver is a stupid investment? Hell no! But if you're going to base your happiness, sanity and willingness to protect yourself financially upon the whims of an unfairly manipulated, 100:1 leveraged paper silver futures market, maybe you should just give up and head back over to Y! Finance and Mad Money. If you truly believe as I do that we are in the death throes of the Keynesian Experiment, you'll use this opportunity to stack even more physical and laugh at the absurd irrationality of the last two days.

That's all for today. Please be sure to check the site tomorrow morning as I will be publishing another TF Metals Report podcast for your enjoyment. It's about an hour long and well worth the listen. Have a great Friday evening and be sure to keep it all in perspective. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 25, 2011 - 10:16pm

Shortage of Physical?? Are you sure

Just reading all the comments here about coin shops being out of stock. If you was business owner and your inventory had dropped in value by 25% in a matter of days would you wish to sell? I know what i would do, i would tell my customers Im out of stock, might help get the demand back to reduce the need to sell at a loss. Isnt this just basic business sense?

Sep 25, 2011 - 9:28pm

Way cool, LaMachinna

What an awesome class you had, thanks for sharing that. In our class this morning we were encouraged to think of ways we could touch the lives of 10 people this week...similar themes going on, I think! : )

Edit to add, Redwood, yes, regarding the coin shop experience, it is sad that there were not more people buying yesterday...I pray for ways to help get the word out to prepare.

Sep 25, 2011 - 9:15pm

Good evening Comrades/Silver in Sunday School today!

Wanted to share w/everyone something quite interesting and so exciting that happened in our adult Sunday school class today. Our lesson this week was in proverbs and about wisdom and discernment. There was mention of silver and removing the dross in the verses. As an object lesson for us adults, or so I thought, Gary who I esteem and highly respect, broke out two ASE's! right in class. I assumed that he was going to talk about the removing of the dross by the refinery, etc. However, he didn't. INSTEAD, he just casually handed the eagles out and asked everyone to look at them and feel them as he introduced what they are and what they meant. It was not a financial lesson, however, it was a total exposure in a subtle wise way to show our fellow brothers and sisters what was on his heart w/out having to say a word. Man, oh, man, Turds!!! What an interesting class it was today. I'm thankful for the opportunity to share in what happened, the love and compassion shown so discreetly today. Man, couldn't have been any better unless my beloved comrades where there.

Just wanted to share w/Turd et al and say we are thinkin' of you and hopin' the very best for you and your families!

Nice to see some upward trajectory tonight.

Blessings tonight Comrades, LaMachinna

RedRovercutie bug
Sep 25, 2011 - 9:00pm

re: my Sep 23 confession

what did you buy, for expiration dates?

Sep 25, 2011 - 8:53pm

The challenge ahead:

The basic difference between an ordinary man and a warrior is that a warrior takes everything as a challenge, while an ordinary man takes everything as a blessing or as a curse Carlos Castaneda

Be Prepared
Sep 25, 2011 - 8:51pm

Market Jerks and Jabs

It's fair to say that this past week has shown us significiant downward pressure. Whether you believe the action is related to short covering, liquidity runs, or a new deflationary surge, the broader perspective has to be maintained about what's happening to the monetary system and how the effects of those outcomes will cascade through our society. This current deflationary surge, to me, has always been a part of the currency destruction cycle towards the demise that we have been on since 1971. Its important to remember there is No System Stability and the moves we will experience will cause you to go dizzily crazy if you aren't focused on the horizon.....the eventual outcome (even if the outcome is represented by a range of potentials). As a system destablizes off its axis, it starts to wobble and oscilate trying to find it a new equilibrium. This wobbling will get steadily worse moving from inflation to deflation as TPTB throw move actions into and onto the system with increasing ferocity......the system can never right itself and will remain permanent out of balance until it can no longer spin on its wobbily rotation.

Will Silver go down to $20? Maybe. Will gold go down to $1000? Maybe. The amplitude of the system both up and down will increase with each destabilizing spin. You are here because you know you are part of the Matrix. You have taken the Red Pill and you know that you are living in a dream world and guess what? That sucks. What's up is now down? What's down is now up? It's not too late, though, you can prepare based upon A PLAN. None of this will feel good and there aren't going to be many at-a-boys. You must have A PLAN and work the PLAN every day. If you're just investor alone, this blog is most likely not for you. Hey, making money is great and, if through divine will, you make more to place towards your PLAN. That's great, but its the horizon you need to keep focused on because within the next few years.....the chaos will only be coming at you with increasing intensity and you will need shelter from that storm. The America you knew is GONE....the freedoms you have are teetering against a thin veil....the security you thought would be there most likely won't exist. Take a Deep Breath and let it out! If you haven't make a PLAN.... make one and work towards executing little by little each day. You will sleep a lot better knowing you can action against whatever you might face. Have a great night!

Sep 25, 2011 - 8:46pm

That is Catchy - Be Your Own Central Banker

That is real assurance - Remind me of the Junk Yard Dog - Surviving and Thriving

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Sep 25, 2011 - 8:07pm

Yawn on ebay

Yeah but....but...ebay prices are the price discovery vehicle (sarc on)

Hey, nevermind if i can buy shit loads of coins and cheaper to from the site mentioned above, that doesn't fit into my point so I am going to ignore that altogether and create my own reality.

I hold silver, lots of it, but it becomes more apparent to me that some people in this so called community love the lie as much as those that feed off the bs in the news.

Sep 25, 2011 - 7:46pm

Ebay silver prices

TBH I've not looked at EBay prices following the latest take down. I went straight to Coininvestdirect.com and bought 25 Maples from them.

The prices on EBay took a week or so to drop following the previous massacre. I think the apparent high prices are down to old auction posts (some buy it now and some which have attracted bids early into the auction).

If the prices remain subdued I'd expect to see a fall in EBay prices next week. I won't have too much more powder but might bite for some .925 pre 1920 British coins.

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

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