ебать! 他妈的 !! באַרען !!!

Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 3:02pm

I'll always remember where I was when silver was crushed for $6 on the Sunday night back in April. I'm sure that I'll never forget the past two days, either. These are amazing times to be alive. Historic.

The main thing that surprises me about all of this is the fact that it is so surprising. I would never have expected a two-day, 25% drop in silver when the open interest on Wednesday was only 111,500 contracts. Similarly, how can gold fall over $200 when the open interest before the fall was under 500,000. The question we need to answer is: Who/what is selling? We'll have to wait to see the Open Interest numbers this afternoon to see where we stood after yesterday and we'll have to wait until Monday for today's numbers. To hear the pundits talk, the PM "bubble" has finally burst as "investors flee for the exits". If that's truly the case, then the OI numbers we get on Monday should show total silver OI of around 80,000 contracts. Gold should drop to something under 450,000. If the OI numbers come in flat to only slightly down, then we've not simply seen a bubble pop. We will have witnessed, over the past 48 hours, a massive manipulative short-selling spree the likes of which we've never seen before. I'll leave it at that for now because it would be useless to speculate further before we see the actual numbers on Monday.

At any rate, the pre-close drop we discussed on the earlier thread did, in fact, materialize earlier as gold briefly touched 1632 about 90 minutes ago. With that behind us, the worst may be over. May be over. The gap on the daily chart from 8/7 has finally been filled and all of this certainly appears overdone. However, do not be surprised by some follow-through selling Sunday night and into Monday. There will be a sharp rebound next week, of that you can be certain, but I would thoroughly discourage you from trying to catch it. In the immortal words of the 70s icons, Paper Lace: Billy, don't be a hero!


The beating that silver has taken is simply preposterous. I'm not even going to try to explain it other than to state again: When the regulators don't care and the market is dominated by JPMs tenuous short position, periods like these are going to continue to happen. Does that mean your physical silver is a stupid investment? Hell no! But if you're going to base your happiness, sanity and willingness to protect yourself financially upon the whims of an unfairly manipulated, 100:1 leveraged paper silver futures market, maybe you should just give up and head back over to Y! Finance and Mad Money. If you truly believe as I do that we are in the death throes of the Keynesian Experiment, you'll use this opportunity to stack even more physical and laugh at the absurd irrationality of the last two days.


That's all for today. Please be sure to check the site tomorrow morning as I will be publishing another TF Metals Report podcast for your enjoyment. It's about an hour long and well worth the listen. Have a great Friday evening and be sure to keep it all in perspective. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


seekonksteve · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:04pm



seekonksteve · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:05pm

sorry could not resist

sorry could not resist

Vincent · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:06pm

Thanks Thanks Thanks TF

Thanks TF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

xibalba · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:07pm

I'm laughing,...but it still

I'm laughing,...but it still hurts.

Missiondweller · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:08pm

Possible central bank raid

Preparation for QE3 which may very well be needed to save the stock market.

TheGoodDoctor · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:08pm

It's called Bizarro World

It's called Bizarro World Turd.

Missiondweller · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:10pm

China has got to be laughing

China has got to be laughing at our stupidity in driving PM prices lower for their purchases for their future preparation of PM backed currency.

Vincent · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:11pm

TF! Turd!

Turd I buy gold and silver now ________ much, it is a lot of!!! 

Missiondweller · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:11pm


100% correct

cpnscarlet · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:11pm

@sheeple (and all) - Rockets-Nuke

Here's the part of the layout I told you about

TheGoodDoctor · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:13pm

Hey Turd are you going to

Hey Turd are you going to have a section for your archived interviews? Please do. It would be handy to have a place that links to them all. Thanks in advance! laugh

ipreferPHYS · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:14pm

I can't f'in believe this crap

Our finance guy at my company (very huge computer company) just walked by my cube at work (don't really know him, just of him), but he said "BUT ALL THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL THERE". I just grinned. I can't even look any more today.

bluewaters · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:15pm

Stay the course

Buy the dip. I wanna get physical, physical, let me hear your body talk. The public body. For any of your friends waiting to buy soon is a great time. 

BASEBALL 13 · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:16pm

Random Quotes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought."

Rudiger Dornbusch, MIT Economist

Waffen · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:16pm

Honestly, from my very

Honestly, from my very uneducated and meager place here. I believe it would be a very good idea to stop trying to use technical analysis to predict the movement of silver.

I only say this, because I believe it gives newbies a false impression that this market can succesfully be played. All focus should be on more of a macro level and less of a micro level in predicting the price action.

Just my thoughts. Not trying to be critical.

Hoping to learn · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:17pm

Don't despair

Keep on stacking and don't despair, easy money will end soon

cpnscarlet · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:24pm

@BSD - If there's one thing

@BSD - If there's one thing I've always try to do, in the morning when I go to take a hot shower, I thank God for the shower, the water, and the fact that it's hot.

Sad though, a lesson of human history is that we go to God, get many blessings, we squander those blessings, turn from God, then wonder why the blessings stop. Then comes punishment and exile until we get our heads straight again.

kpd13 · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:24pm

mr gambini ferguson

Mr. Gambini, that is a lucid, intelligent, well-thought-out objection!

andybenn · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:27pm

What happens to the f'ing

What happens to the f'ing 'solid floor' @1715 quoted in the KWN interview. Probably the so called 'trader' was just another bullion bank stooge.

Tom L · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:27pm


I had people do that to me all the time at my last two jobs over the past ten years. In 2006(?) when gold first hit $700 and promptly got hit back into the $500s I heard it all.... when it corrected from $1033 to $770 ... same thing. I jusr re-iterated the same things I'd been saying to them and when the correction was nesrly done, bought a little more. Do I care about this correction in silver? Yes in current needs terms... in terms of my return on investment? NO.

The last time I stacked physical silver was at $16.84/oz... the bottom of the correction off of the $23 high in late 2008. My money since then has gone into chickens, goats and a garden.


tread_w_care · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:27pm

Eff it

Did some paper shopping. Couldn't help it.

EXK, SLW, PSLV all too low to pass up. 

It's just my 101K after all. Monopoly money. 

D0C · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:31pm


dont want to be flat. picking up slv calls 30-31. Looking for that 3:40 bounce. Have a restfull weekend all.

backseatdriver · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:31pm


You said it. Its a human curse. Literally. We get to live in the midst of one history's tragedies. Believe me, in 200 years people are going to look back and say, what in Gods name were those foolish people doing. Didn't they learn from all the empires before them. What a stupid, stupid people. They had everything and squandered it for "stuff". Its an extremely heavy and painful burden to live in the midst of. Makes me weepy every time I write about it, (the whole cognitive dissonance thing I am guessing). I am just a big panzy I guess. But not a disillusioned or unprepared panzy:)


GoldStacker · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:36pm

Cover margin calls - APMEX Mid Day commentary

Sorry if this was already posted, seems plausible...


Hedge Funds Are Driving Down Gold PricesHedge funds are selling gold and this is the number one reason why gold prices are down. The big question: “Are they selling because they are no longer bullish on gold or are they selling because they need to raise cash quickly and gold is a highly liquid asset?” Hedge funds not only need to raise cash to cover margin calls, in turbulent times like these, redemption requests increase and this too takes cash. Michael Gayed, Chief Investment Strategist for Pension Partners comments, “The tendency for individual hedge funds or anybody is to sell winners before they sell losers. What’s been one of the few winners this year? It’s been gold.” Not all funds are selling and there are still some strategists who predict gold to reach $2,300. After all, even with the pullback, gold is up over 20% for the year.

Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS Financial Services, says there might be a Thursday –Monday scenario in play, that could cause a massive rally in the markets next week. Mr. Cashin explains that we might be about to experience this historical trading pattern. The Thursday-Monday pattern begins with a steep decline on Thursday with very high volume. Friday’s markets turn choppy (high volatility) and then weekend news sets the market up for a massive sell-off (capitulation) on Monday. The sell-off usually ends by Monday, but can extend into Tuesday. Shortly thereafter, capitulation is followed by a massive rally.

Silvergunn · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:36pm

Trading account down prevents new funds

the new funds are stacking away!!!

Haole · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:39pm


Me too budda! Just phosphorus digits in my online brokerage RRSP account. Pulled another 5K cash out of it also to pay for tangibles... ;)

Averaging some into PHS.U today.

If Korean bankers are jumping, people are freaking and Turd is cursing in a number of different languages then it can't be an altogether bad time to buy... ;)

¤ · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:40pm

China laughing

Maybe so.

It could also be a pre-arranged thing between our Govt.'s. that allows China to take advantage of the manipulation because they continue to buy and hold our paper Treasuries to this day. It's just a thought and it wouldn't suprise me if we are giving them the opportunity. China knows exactly what is going on in the Crimex and PM's.

Their Premiere came here back in Dec./Jan. and it was pretty cozy at that point I recall. Just before that Jan. PM takedown also. Something about this reeks like TF said and I think Ben did just allow the shorts to cover and pile on in the other direction. And I think our Govt./CB has no problem with that part (China/PM's) of the relationship...for now.

We shall see, won't we?

If that short covering did happen, we may become witness to one of the most dramatic market moves we've ever witnessed, and that's saying a lot at this point.

caravanserai · Sep 23, 2011 - 3:40pm

GSR again

Interesting seeking alpha article from a while back but still relevant. The last para is a bit poignant though .....


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