OK, Here Are Some Charts

Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 9:43am

I hope you're sitting down because these charts are not pretty.

First of all, I'm not going to waste your time with 15-minute and 2-hour charts because, frankly, those charts aren't worth the paper they'd be printed on. In a global liquidation event, you can throw TA and the fundos out the window. Eventually, however, buyers will emerge to take advantage of the discounted prices. The question is, where? Maybe we can find some answers on the longer-term charts.

First up, gold. Of course, none of the fundos have changed. More on that in a minute. Technically, however, gold looks like it could drop another $100 or so. We've been following the 8/7 gap on the charts since it happened. Though there have certainly been moments when it looked like gold would not go down and fill that gap, it appears almost certain now. And don't expect it to stop there. The charts below certainly seem to indicate that gold could fall below 1600 before finding some substantial bids. Therefore, for now, I'm not buying anything. Not even any physical. I'm waiting, confident that I can save $100/ounce if I'm patient.

Silver is an absolute disaster but it is only doing what silver does. As I mentioned last night, if you elect to trade in an unregulated market that is dominated by an uber-short which has virtually unlimited financial and political backing to defend its position, you're going to get your ass kicked every once in a while. And I don't think that the current beating is over yet. Furthermore, if you're a believer in the whole "wynter benton" thing, then how can seriously expect JPM to go down without a fight? In fact, this kind of 24-hour destruction almost validates the entire WB "story". If JPM really is threatened by "60 days of silver over " or whatever it is, then wouldn't you expect them to hammer silver before the deadline? I mean, they're not going to go all Dylan Thomas on you and simply "go gentle into that good night". That said, if silver doesn't stop right here, at the lows of May, then it's going considerably lower, as the charts below show. Though I'd love to buy some more Maples here, I'm waiting on this one, too. At , I can buy 4 sleeves for the same amount of fiat that would get me 3 sleeves at .

One last thing, I may not know much but one thing I do know is that this whole "deflation is coming" stuff is bullshit. Yes, by failing to add additional QE this week, The Fed had set off a chain of events that will finish off any hope of economic recovery and, yes, the value of your house and your 401(k) is headed lower. However, deflation will not solve the current global debt crisis. That's not how it works. You cannot deflate your way out of debt. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion. The only way out is devaluation of the currency. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

What we are entering is the worst possible outcome and the worst of all worlds for the average, everyday person. Your fiat-based wealth is going to decline. Your wages will stagnate if not decline. But, the cost you pay for everything from milk to bread to gasoline is going to skyrocket. Eventually, this will lead to civil unrest, political instability and even revolutions. So let me state this again very clearly: THE ONLY FINANCIAL PROTECTION YOU HAVE AGAINST THIS COMING MADNESS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be patient. Help each other. Do not be small and/or petty. Use your brain. Do not panic like the sheep. Stay alert. Survive and prosper. TF

11:15 am EDT UPDATE:

​The metals are catching some bids but don't allow yourself to get sucked in just yet. Dec11 gold bottomed at 1668 but that is still about $16 above the level it needs to fall to if it's going to close that gap on the daily chart. I can't imagine gold falling all this way and not closing the gap so look for at least a double-bottom soon, if not a dip toward 1650 and slightly below. Be patient. Contrary to previous Friday's, I doubt there will be much buying on the afternoon Globex. Probably more selling, instead, as weak hands head for the exits rather than stay long over the weekend.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 23, 2011 - 1:31pm

LOL Screw them!

I'm boycotting this bull-crap FYI. I may own a bullion business but I don't have to sell MY STUFF at THERE PRICES! I don't work my fingers to the bone founding and refining silver so that I can give my stuff away at half price when demand is THROUGH THE ROOF. I don't mind waiting either. My prices are staying high! HAWHAHAHahaha. My silver, MY PRICES! screw em. Sorry to all of you expecting a fatty discount at wheelersilver.com, I simply cannot afford to throw my inventory away for dirt. I'd rather sit on my silver at a higher price. I've said it before and I'll say it again. THESE PRICES DO NOT REFLECT PHYSICAL MARKETS!!! These bastards should all be tossed in jail. Peace.



~Handmade Quality Bullion~

Dr G
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:32pm

I also need to add that we

I also need to add that we always hear about "strong buyers" or "lots of support" or "Asian loves their metals".

Guess what? Those things are TRUE but none of them apply to the paper game from which we obtain our spot prices. It is entirely possible that the paper price of silver goes to the mid 20s soon (today?), and people are still buying up a storm of physical, yet the price continues to drop. That's because the paper pushers are selling their paper. Don't forget it.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:33pm


Whoever brought that guy up Rick Ackerman and his confident 'pivot pts.', I warned you not to take heed.

He is just as confidently now 'readjusting' his points downward by the hour.

What a joke.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:34pm

Re: This Probably Has Been Said Before But I'll Say it Again

What's more mind boggling is that not only can you trade paper for money (Au and Ag) but you can also trade it for guns, ammo, food, water, water filtration, etc. etc. That is mind boggling. FRNs trade for wealth due to a psychology buttressed by government force not reality. The government is crumbling. So what then happens to FRNs?

Virabhadra WheelerSilver
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:35pm


Beautiful craftsmanship ... too bad you don't ship internationally.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:36pm


I hear you! We need more Physical retailers saying exactly what you just said - the criminal price discovery mechanism makes no sense and if all Physical folks did the same as you the needed disconnect between the COMEX and the Physical market would take place.

BTW - wish we could buy your products here in Canada - look really nice.

Dr G ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:36pm

@ScottJ. I'm a bull. Holding

@ScottJ. I'm a bull. Holding long and not letting go. Buying physical like there is no tomorrow.

There is ZERO fact behind any statement that "once silver breaks $50...".

Either breaking 50 will allow us to psychologically get up to 60, or we will have huge profit taking/sell-off and be back at 40. Who knows. Don't fall for the 50 is the magical number thing. It's absurd.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:36pm

Price reference of comex

I have always one question in my mind.

Will we see new higher price of PM ever on Comex in future? Or we see it on PAGE.

Silver New low 29.79

cpnscarlet ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:36pm

ScottJ - Pushing my buttons, but OK

Did anyone see Blinky's (Acmhed-I'm-in-ajihad) speech at the UN? One of his complaints was the US flooding the world with $$$ unbacked by gold. Another metaphysical point - God has always seen fir to use s**theads like this to reprimand and punish His people who have gone astray in the past. Happening again???

Dr G
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:39pm

I don't put any trust in

I don't put any trust in PAGE. It's an unknown at this point. I try to put my trust in proven vehicles. I am hopeful, but cautious about PAGE.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:39pm

We don't all have to agree....


We don't have to all agree on everything.... we just have to agree that freedom is our upmost goal. -- Ron Paul.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:41pm

This sell-off is fucking

This sell-off is fucking unbelievable!

The lower the take it the closer we are to end game IMO.

The lower they take it the greater the desperation of the banks and the more starved for cash they are. 2012 is not looking good for planet earth

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:44pm

go against the herd

the time to buy is when everyone is selling. just closed equity positions and bought a dozen krugs.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:45pm

No printed trades on ebay today

However the last from yesterday was $1895 for a 1oz Krugerrand. Ebay tends to be mighty thin on volume, but I find it interesting that the actual physical gold isn't moving nearly as far or as fast as the "gold" you see on the ticker.

I dunno. At some point if all of this gets bad enough, fiat price will be irrelevant - you will be paying for things directly with your physical bullion.

I mean, I have a modest pile of silver coins for that purpose - I don't ever plan on selling them back to anyone - they are there if the whole banking system collapses and I need to convince someone to trade with me.

Torpedo Fish
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:46pm

gut feelin

Ron, thanks for asking about Gold... I will soon bail out that worthless old relic too!

QE3 next week/month ?

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:48pm


WOW! The world has gone mad! LOL_____________

Mikeyk23 Dr G
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:48pm

I agree on PAGE

I agree, PAGE is nothing more but a dressed up version of the COMEX. Just a different government with the same agenda! not a game changer in any sense of the word. Kind of like a pig with lipstick... dont trust any government to look out for the well being of the average investor. its a joke!

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:48pm

re: has silver ever lost 16+% in

Why does that matter? The biggest moves in BULL markets are always down, as Peter Schiff reminds us.

Silver cannot go to zero, cannot go bankrupt, cannot be embroiled in a sex or criminal scandal. This is a manipulated paper market run by crooks. It is crashing because of:

1) Bad news ahead which is great for Silver (Greek default, COMEX default, etc.)

2) Opportunity/Need for JPM to cover short positions because they are going long baby.

3) This might be the Big One Elizabeth

Take your pick. In the long run, it will be up again big-time. It is always darkest before the dawn. Hang in there. Do not leverage. Buy physical. Keep stacking.

This will clear ou

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:49pm

shopping time

heading over to APMEX to go shopping....

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:49pm

Suddenly, I kinda feel like the Black Knight...

...It's only a flesh wound!

On the upside, when the last bullion store closed in my time zone & location, spot was still above my purchase point for today...

On the downside, I kinda feel like a character in a Philip K. Dick short story or novel...

Time to lower that blood/C2H5OH ratio. Moderators, please kindly avert your eyes if some members start posting less than topical comments in the thread, heaven forbid, frivolous content...

Some soothing words of (bias confirming, I must grudgingly note) wisdom from Duffminster:


"We are seeing a European based liquidity sell off today by funds and banks who are having to cover their calls. This is of course being orchestrated and by a narrow but very powerful group of central bank operatives, the bullion banks to press their mandate to change people's mind in regard to the idea that gold and silver are real money and the rest is about as reliable as house made out of cards. I would guess this is also the full court press of every dirty trick that the gold anti trust action committee (GATA) has been discussing for years and from what I can understand they are hammering silver particularly hard because of some likely delivery issues and because the Pan Asian Gold Exchange opens next month and will begin taking physical metal off the market very quickly. We are also just entering into what is historically almost always a bullish quarter for gold. They are trying to hammer it down. The pundits are asking is the bull run in gold and silver over? I haven't sold a one ounce and plan to continue buying at these super low levels which are given to us courtesy of Operation Twisting in the Wind rather than real Quantitative Easing, which will be announced shortly in my opinion as the ESF will not be able to hold the stock market up much longer today. Looking at the price of gold we are having a fairly typical Fibonacci retracement, and the longer term trend lines are intact. I believe that the Powers that be know that they can not allow the liquidity crisis to continue in Europe and will do "whatever is necessary" to support the EU financial system and that means monetization.

As a long term value preservation investor, I don't believe for one minute that the US sovereign debt and the dollar which relies on it are a safe haven and just as I did in 2008, I am not selling my gold or silver holdings and am stocking up on gold and silver stocks now.

The US sovereign debt situation is really worse than that of Greece and ultimately either the central bank will embark on further QE or the entire financial system is going down in a way that looks 2008 look like a walk in the park. If that happens, sovereign default all the way around and gold and silver go up. So whether its monetization and associated currency devaluation or simply across the board sovereign default and the collapse of the global economic system, paper money which backed by bonds (which is debt) which backed by paper dollars, gold and silver are still the real money, despite the US, UK and Swiss central banks efforts to persuade you otherwise of that fact in today's paper manipulations.

I am in Gold and Silver for the long run. Don't use margin, and I always buy on the dips (and this is the best one yet) and only, if ever, sell on strength. Its a good day to take a nap and forget about the markets. Buy on weakness, sell on strength is a general rule I follow in investing.

Gold and silver are the real money and always have been. Currency is backed only by debt and extremely poor government policies will always become worth less and throughout history, that has always been true and will continue to be so.

Without conviction to the principles of truth, investors routinely get wiped out by their own greed and fear and panic.


Sep 23, 2011 - 1:50pm

Skip this post if you don't want to read any pointless bitching

Okay, if you don't want to read somebody grousing and bitching, just skip this post. I've got to vent somehow & this is the only forum I have for such a thing.

All the "Whee - time to back up & spend your dry powder" BTFD crap brings no comfort to me - none.

I'm not in a position to save any 'dry powder' anymore. The physical I have is a result of having worked several years at selling stuff on eBay, saving my FRN's, followed by having the sense to take it all out of my Paypal account via eBay gold purchases back when you could get $200 back if you bought your gold via an MS Live or maybe it was "Bling" search.

Last year what with all the "Silver is going to the moon" jazz I was hearing, plus having seen for myself silver was indeed outperforming gold, I swapped half of my gold for silver when the ratio was around 62 or so.

Delighted with the way things were playing out, I, foolishly as it turns out, swapped THE REST OF THE GOLD for silver last March - the GS ratio was around 43 or so.

Virtually everybody at that time was talking about how silver was going to hit $100 by the end of the year. Not having any savvy at trading so feeing the smartest move was to simply 'stack' - what did I know?

As of today, with a GS of 53 as of this writing, I am under where I would have been had I not even bothered.

This pisses me off utterly.

I know I have nobody to blame but myself because nobody held a gun to my head and told me to swap, but geez, what a f*ckn nightmare.

Can it get worse? Sure it can! Bear with me. I'm a pianist / composer which right there tells you why I have no dry powder right now, and this past spring I was talked into participating in a concert of music by local composers. Weeks of practice & rehearsals went into that performance. One the day of the performance - a mere ten people showed up, and by the time I got up on stage that number was reduced to five - and THOSE only were the musicians for the last piece on the program. After the concert I watched the attack on silver from my iPhone - the concert was on May 1. That miserable experience has become permanently conflated with the silver crash.

Yesterday morning we get a call my brother in law is dying - we rush to the hospital in time to be in the room as he passes away. Silver's even WORSE as if it was possible fall yesterday was like icing on the cake.

So having these silver waterfalls timed with so many personal crap days is like a doubling down of the crap.

One other thing to consider.

Some of us - those who can no longer back up the truck - just might have not enjoyed the prospect of seeing their entire holdings in PM's set back to the value of what they were over a year ago. All the chatter from the period of May1 through last week kept giving me hope of seeing SOMETHING happen, if nothing else, I was hoping for the GS ratio to drop back to 40 so I could as LEAST go back to half & half gold & silver. At this point I'm so f'd up from it all I have NO trust that it will get better anytime soon. Even if silver starts to explode (ha) I would have no faith that it would have any lasting effect.

I read one comment last night that said silver would be trading in the teens next year - I'm beginning to believe it.

Sorry for the bitch fest - I don't really feel much better as it turns out.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:50pm

China has spoken

China Pushes For More Stable Reserve Currency - Bye Bye USD? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2011 13:16 -0400
Gold Dog
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:52pm


Although my work showing gold trending lower for some time to come has not changed I have lowered about half of my stops and laddered the Dec futures around the 1702 level.

As info.


Sep 23, 2011 - 1:52pm


I wouldn't have foreseen the liquidation in gold and silver of this speed and magnitude. Amazing, the fundamental still says that monetary base has tripled since 2008, but gold price has only doubled. Is monetary base suddenly going to shrink? I don't think so. If anything, it will increase. It seems there are is a big bank going through liquidation sale. Another Lehman-type event.

Days like this make me glad that I do not do day or week trading, and that I only cost average. Hang on tight friends, this is when our lack of faith in fiat is being tested.

a_guy_in_hainesville Mikeyk23
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:53pm

I agree on PAGE Submitted by

I agree on PAGE

Submitted by Mikeyk23 on September 23, 2011 - 1:48pm. Hat Tip! 1

I agree, PAGE is nothing more but a dressed up version of the COMEX. Just a different government with the same agenda! not a game changer in any sense of the word. Kind of like a pig with lipstick... dont trust any government to look out for the well being of the average investor. its a joke!

I wish I could give more than one hat tip to that. :)

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:53pm

" Thankfully, they are giving

" Thankfully, they are giving us this gift in 3 freaking days, as opposed to dragging it out for three weeks and letting all if the time value slip away".

Yup, a deep swift cut is less painful than a mangled, torturous injury. It will heal better and more quickly too.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:54pm

Do not be fearful, be firm and long-term plotting

If everyone on this board bought physical (like I've been doing) and HELD it (rather than continuously trading it back in for more fiat aka "playing the banksters games"), then these EE bastards would begin pay for their paper games because real world silver WOULD tighten up...and tighten up...and tighten up. when WE sell it back, we aid them...period.

Buy it by the 500 oz bucketload and put it away.

$30/oz. meh.

That is all...the rest is bullshit.


Sep 23, 2011 - 1:54pm

1575 looks about

1575 looks about right.


But this intermediate correction is just getting started so patience...upper 1400's could be in the cards.

Sep 23, 2011 - 1:55pm

Take My Gold, Please!

I'm tempted to follow the advice of my stupid epiphany and sell just to try to catch the falling knife when it finally bounces, so who on earth is not liquidating?! Getting that negative 5% yield in real terms on bonds sounds absolutely delicious and almost makes me drool with excitement!

We have to try to put our emotions aside though, otherwise the banksters get exactly what they want: each and every one of us completely stuck in their fiat-debt-system. I expect that we're going to see hyperinflation in many Western countries and gold, possibly accompanied by silver, reintroduced in a new monetary system somewhere within the next 1-5 years. Still, there will be times when many of us enlightened ones will beg daddy bankster to take our gold and silver and relieve us from the pain. Those who stand strong will be the ultimate future winners after this financial and social holocaust, if we have any future, that is.

Money will soon come to the rescue my friends. Just be patient. In the meantime, prepare mentally for the real collapse. The one when bonds and currencies are no longer wanted. Then you will panic for real.


Looner Mikeyk23
Sep 23, 2011 - 1:55pm

Re: shopping time...

I'd recommend comparing to Provident Metals.

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