OK, Here Are Some Charts

403
Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 9:43am

I hope you're sitting down because these charts are not pretty.

First of all, I'm not going to waste your time with 15-minute and 2-hour charts because, frankly, those charts aren't worth the paper they'd be printed on. In a global liquidation event, you can throw TA and the fundos out the window. Eventually, however, buyers will emerge to take advantage of the discounted prices. The question is, where? Maybe we can find some answers on the longer-term charts.

First up, gold. Of course, none of the fundos have changed. More on that in a minute. Technically, however, gold looks like it could drop another $100 or so. We've been following the 8/7 gap on the charts since it happened. Though there have certainly been moments when it looked like gold would not go down and fill that gap, it appears almost certain now. And don't expect it to stop there. The charts below certainly seem to indicate that gold could fall below 1600 before finding some substantial bids. Therefore, for now, I'm not buying anything. Not even any physical. I'm waiting, confident that I can save $100/ounce if I'm patient.

Silver is an absolute disaster but it is only doing what silver does. As I mentioned last night, if you elect to trade in an unregulated market that is dominated by an uber-short which has virtually unlimited financial and political backing to defend its position, you're going to get your ass kicked every once in a while. And I don't think that the current beating is over yet. Furthermore, if you're a believer in the whole "wynter benton" thing, then how can seriously expect JPM to go down without a fight? In fact, this kind of 24-hour destruction almost validates the entire WB "story". If JPM really is threatened by "60 days of silver over " or whatever it is, then wouldn't you expect them to hammer silver before the deadline? I mean, they're not going to go all Dylan Thomas on you and simply "go gentle into that good night". That said, if silver doesn't stop right here, at the lows of May, then it's going considerably lower, as the charts below show. Though I'd love to buy some more Maples here, I'm waiting on this one, too. At , I can buy 4 sleeves for the same amount of fiat that would get me 3 sleeves at .

One last thing, I may not know much but one thing I do know is that this whole "deflation is coming" stuff is bullshit. Yes, by failing to add additional QE this week, The Fed had set off a chain of events that will finish off any hope of economic recovery and, yes, the value of your house and your 401(k) is headed lower. However, deflation will not solve the current global debt crisis. That's not how it works. You cannot deflate your way out of debt. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion. The only way out is devaluation of the currency. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

What we are entering is the worst possible outcome and the worst of all worlds for the average, everyday person. Your fiat-based wealth is going to decline. Your wages will stagnate if not decline. But, the cost you pay for everything from milk to bread to gasoline is going to skyrocket. Eventually, this will lead to civil unrest, political instability and even revolutions. So let me state this again very clearly: THE ONLY FINANCIAL PROTECTION YOU HAVE AGAINST THIS COMING MADNESS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be patient. Help each other. Do not be small and/or petty. Use your brain. Do not panic like the sheep. Stay alert. Survive and prosper. TF

11:15 am EDT UPDATE:

​The metals are catching some bids but don't allow yourself to get sucked in just yet. Dec11 gold bottomed at 1668 but that is still about $16 above the level it needs to fall to if it's going to close that gap on the daily chart. I can't imagine gold falling all this way and not closing the gap so look for at least a double-bottom soon, if not a dip toward 1650 and slightly below. Be patient. Contrary to previous Friday's, I doubt there will be much buying on the afternoon Globex. Probably more selling, instead, as weak hands head for the exits rather than stay long over the weekend.

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  403 Comments

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:57am

for all the low $20 something silver callers...

could it go that low temporarily? sure, anything is possible.

but fess up, how many of you were also calling for that during the may 1 dip?

when silver moves up calls of $200 are as common as these when it moves down.

margaritatime
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:59am

@dannyhaha

On days like this, I would not use automation (website ordering). I would call Gainsville, even if it means listening to elevator music while on hold and talk directly to the trading desk. A little past experience in this - try not to call during the lunch hours (roughly 11 - 3 EST).

Hammer
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:00am

...........and this, ladies

...........and this, ladies and gentlemen is why it is wise to DCA in over time in the physical.

But I am looking forward one day to hoping this happens to the (imo) immoral and some would claim fraudulent things that go on in banking and so on :)

warning..naughty words in the song.

surf wipe-outs compilation
tpbetaOC15
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:01am

You never SELL your physical

I sold my physical in late April at $48. Now I can buy it back at $32 and more. Why do people always say you should never sell physical. It's a bit dogmatic isn't it?

MrSteed
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:04am

perspective

8 months ago I funded my precious metals account from my brokerage account. At the time the brokerage account had far more $ in it. Today, while both accounts are down from their highs, the brokerage account now has far LESS $ than the precious metal one. If I hadn't done the precious metal swap, I'd be looking at far LESS $ in my total account right now. The precious metal account is a physical-based, allocated, vault one that I add to periodically -- ie it's dollar cost average "stacking". So, in terms of "preserving wealth" in uncertain times, the precious metals are still doing their job. Just some perspective.

Look around. If you're an investor, what else looks like a fairly safe place to put your money? Not much.

HeNateMe
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:04am

Watch Out Boys She'll Chew You Up

Driving to work this morning after sitting at my computer getting updated on what took place overnight. Turned on the radio to the slow mysterious beat of:

"Oh Oh here she comes. Watch out boys she'll chew you up! Oh Oh here she comes. She's a man eater!"

Thought that was appropriate for this morning. Well, she is a fiat eater. She won't/can't eat my physical though. Bad for her digestion.

Anywho, take care today you all. I am waiting for $24 based on Turd's advice. I am realizing more and more that the lower it goes the more I can afford to buy and the better off I will be in the end. I ain't selling or swapping my PMs for a heck of a long time. Plunge in price is therefore A+ beneficial for me.

"She'll only come out at night. The lean and hungry type. Nothing is new, I've seen her here before..."

Video unavailable
Iowegian
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:05am

Grandich

I remain a strong Peter Grandich fan. He is turning positive... taking nibbles in Gold and Silver in this area. And funniest... he is taunting Tokyo Rose, otherwise known as Ralph Nader, (again). I love it!

I have never lost money listening to Grandich's macro recommendations. Based upon his prediction I am turning positive as well.

https://www.grandich.com/2011/09/its-that-time-again-gold-1689-silver-32-34-and-100000-challenge/

Also, I would recommend that you listen to his last interview on 9-22-2011:

https://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/peter-grandich-radio/

In it Grandich compares the economic quagmire in Greece and Ireland. Basically, Ireland is taking the necessary austerity cuts while Greece has rebuffed everything. The ten year bond charts tell the story. They both looked very similar going into 2010. However, Greece is now headed for the abyss while Ireland is righting the ship. Guess which way the US is heading? Think about it and do not sell those metals!

Members Only. Please login or Signup for Trial
JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember 20112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998 to JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember 20112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998

Loading Chart. Please Wait.

jackmeoff
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:06am

@tpbeta

I have not sold an oz and dont believe in selling phys for paper gains. I do however play with puts when things feel off and is how I get more. This way I dont lose a big move up and risk chasing it but am also protected to the downside and can buy more when I get a nice gain.

ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:06am

Re: Thoughts on WB

I secretly wish some entity was out there who could actually take our cause and belief system in silver to that next level and had some ability to do so.

Which is why the WB is popular.

I just don't like the fact that he/she posts on yahoo message boards. I mean come on, you can't even create a basic website where people can come and focus on the material you are presenting? How hard would it be.... instead wanders on the yahoo message boards. The place of trolls.

IMO, WB is a nice infiltrated perspective that helps keep the "precious metal community" piece together information in meaningless ways (gives them reasons to justify price movements?). Is it so hard to believe that this was just to crush gold and silver as a sound currency instead of protecting derivatives bomb? Maybe. Who knows, and who really cares... because the dollar is gonna blow soon enough anyways. And at that point, I could care less about WB, JP Morgan, and all of the nonsense they represent.

I will give him/her credit that she has some interesting theories, and can captivate an audience, but until I see more accredation out of the posts instead of cryptic messages on the yahoo message boards, I will just take it as any other opinion.

-

You know... if TPTB & the EE are willing to go through all of these things to manipulate our perception, our markets, and our life.... is it so hard to believe that they could have an infiltrated source to help them smooth over the beliefs of those who are aware of the conjob, but are willing to play along with it?

Just my thoughts. I do read all of the posts though. Worthwhile to try to figure out in this game of mysteries.

badScooter
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:07am

hell with this...

@Mister...thanks for the reality check. Been there, done that, unnnn-healthy.

I'm going to go take a nap. How many times do I have to learn the lesson...to not sit and watch the ticks! I'm going to turn my damn platform off and check again an hour before market close, and if we're anywhere in the 20's at all, buy. If price rubber bands, I'll take my powder and invest in some hams instead!

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

by Gasivs Buttox, 23 min 38 sec ago
by Montross515, 1 hour 14 min ago
by Angry Chef, 1 hour 27 min ago
by SteveW, 1 hour 51 min ago

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Oct 14, 2019 - 9:10pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:32pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:27pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:01pm