OK, Here Are Some Charts

403
Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 9:43am

I hope you're sitting down because these charts are not pretty.

First of all, I'm not going to waste your time with 15-minute and 2-hour charts because, frankly, those charts aren't worth the paper they'd be printed on. In a global liquidation event, you can throw TA and the fundos out the window. Eventually, however, buyers will emerge to take advantage of the discounted prices. The question is, where? Maybe we can find some answers on the longer-term charts.

First up, gold. Of course, none of the fundos have changed. More on that in a minute. Technically, however, gold looks like it could drop another $100 or so. We've been following the 8/7 gap on the charts since it happened. Though there have certainly been moments when it looked like gold would not go down and fill that gap, it appears almost certain now. And don't expect it to stop there. The charts below certainly seem to indicate that gold could fall below 1600 before finding some substantial bids. Therefore, for now, I'm not buying anything. Not even any physical. I'm waiting, confident that I can save $100/ounce if I'm patient.

Silver is an absolute disaster but it is only doing what silver does. As I mentioned last night, if you elect to trade in an unregulated market that is dominated by an uber-short which has virtually unlimited financial and political backing to defend its position, you're going to get your ass kicked every once in a while. And I don't think that the current beating is over yet. Furthermore, if you're a believer in the whole "wynter benton" thing, then how can seriously expect JPM to go down without a fight? In fact, this kind of 24-hour destruction almost validates the entire WB "story". If JPM really is threatened by "60 days of silver over " or whatever it is, then wouldn't you expect them to hammer silver before the deadline? I mean, they're not going to go all Dylan Thomas on you and simply "go gentle into that good night". That said, if silver doesn't stop right here, at the lows of May, then it's going considerably lower, as the charts below show. Though I'd love to buy some more Maples here, I'm waiting on this one, too. At , I can buy 4 sleeves for the same amount of fiat that would get me 3 sleeves at .

One last thing, I may not know much but one thing I do know is that this whole "deflation is coming" stuff is bullshit. Yes, by failing to add additional QE this week, The Fed had set off a chain of events that will finish off any hope of economic recovery and, yes, the value of your house and your 401(k) is headed lower. However, deflation will not solve the current global debt crisis. That's not how it works. You cannot deflate your way out of debt. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion. The only way out is devaluation of the currency. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

What we are entering is the worst possible outcome and the worst of all worlds for the average, everyday person. Your fiat-based wealth is going to decline. Your wages will stagnate if not decline. But, the cost you pay for everything from milk to bread to gasoline is going to skyrocket. Eventually, this will lead to civil unrest, political instability and even revolutions. So let me state this again very clearly: THE ONLY FINANCIAL PROTECTION YOU HAVE AGAINST THIS COMING MADNESS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be patient. Help each other. Do not be small and/or petty. Use your brain. Do not panic like the sheep. Stay alert. Survive and prosper. TF

11:15 am EDT UPDATE:

​The metals are catching some bids but don't allow yourself to get sucked in just yet. Dec11 gold bottomed at 1668 but that is still about $16 above the level it needs to fall to if it's going to close that gap on the daily chart. I can't imagine gold falling all this way and not closing the gap so look for at least a double-bottom soon, if not a dip toward 1650 and slightly below. Be patient. Contrary to previous Friday's, I doubt there will be much buying on the afternoon Globex. Probably more selling, instead, as weak hands head for the exits rather than stay long over the weekend.

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  403 Comments

OC15
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:40am

You never SELL your physical

You just get a brand new 0% 12-18 month credit card with free balance transfer and roll it over. Hey I can kick the can down the road just as well as they can.

cpnscarlet
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:40am

What a Morning

Been up for an hour reading posts. Boy oh boy, what a morning. Well my bottom call at 1720 was worthless, and I'm shocked seeing how low silver went. If LasVegasDave took my bet, he would have had an extra ounce. Hats off to ya, Dave - great call. Even Turd's post was a surprise in its tone. I hope you all see now that when I said he should give it a rest 2 days ago, it was because no one could see what would play out as the EE was on the warpath. Maybe we all need to take a break for an extended session. And please, turn off the TA for a bit.

I'll stick with the wisodm of Santa here. He said volatility would be the order of the day on 8/11 and the traders should lighten up while long-termers should "be tight and sit tight". I'm in the second camp and my only regret right now is 1) Not having any dry powder and 2) Being out of work. Aside from that, it's another day of battle as we race toward ??? What ? The apocalypse, the next depression, or some other fate? THE ONLY THING I WANT TO TRY TO CONFIRM IS IF MANY LOCAL COIN SHOPS ARE CLOSED. If this is really the case, it speaks volumes.

Aside from making sure I take the time to get on my knees to pray, the next thing is to look at events and take a hint from a home-made billboard on my train layout -

Somewhere in the world, it's 6PM - Happy Hour!

agauinvest
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:40am

Hey ESF/PPT!

If that is you throwing money at stocks and holding them up, can you send some of that money our way, too?

argent rampant
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:40am

@Larry - Well, there ya go!

"Instead of a rabbit, it looks like Fed pulled a huge turd out of their hat."

Love it!

Gil ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:41am

@ScottJ RE: Physical Dealers

We bought some silver yesterday afternoon from our main supplier. He got wiped out on Wednesday and early yesterday had only one (1) 10-oz. silver bar left on hand, which he sold us along with some ASEs and Maples. His price to us was usual with respect to spot, he is a stand-up guy. We have a small shop and a couple of our steady buyers came in yesterday and we sold all but one of our silver bars to them for the usual premium wrt spot. In fact, I even thanked them for being astute buyers of the fucking dip. But I completely understand that coin shop owners might decide to go on vacation for a week or tell their customers that they're sold out of bullion. We also bought some gold at $1809/oz. a few days ago, which I am still very happy about. But do you think I'm going to turn around and sell it for $1650/oz. 3 days later and hope like hell that I can replace it at the same price? No fucking way! It's HIGH time that the physical price says FUCK YOU to the paper crooks, so if somebody hasn't already beat me to it, let me be the first to say FUCK YOU, ALL YOU PAPER-PUSHING COCKSUCKERS ON THE LBMA AND COMEX!


Sep 23, 2011 - 10:46am

Definitely worth the time to read

I've got to get this guy on a podcast! Anyone know how to reach him?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/financial-warfare

raulv
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:47am

I made a call a few days ago

I made a call a few days ago (maybe a month ago) about silver going to visit 25.. My POV is because of the c&h it's drawing in the super long term (from back to 1978 up 'till now), anyhow one turdite told me that 25 silver was almost impossible and that HE would send me a TF Hat if we ever get to see a 25 print in silver again.

Let's see if I can get my hat this time :)

tmosley
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:48am

@Gil If you are interested in

@Gil

If you are interested in sticking it to the bankers, you should be raising your premiums. It might seem like a shitty thing to do, but now you have no silver to sell to anyone, no matter what the price they are willing to pay is. Participate in price discovery and make some more money for yourself at the same time!

Swampfox
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:50am

Conditioning

I remember a couple years back when I first started buying and trading metals. Flash crashes would have me shaking in my boots. I made some emotional decisions that cost me a bit of money but learned quickly that the metals trade is primarily about fundamentals and everything else in between is more or less noise. Large dips like today went from being something I feared to being a buying opportunity. The same emotional response I had to sudden drops now affect me when the charts turn parabolic to the upside. I am more nervous of too quick a climb than too dramatic of a drop. Unless you are trading volatility and not accumalating shares and physical you have nothing to worry about long term in a world with debt up to its scalp and political uncertainty out its ying yang.

So thank you to Turd and the Turdites who have taught me to watch the fundamentals more than anything (daily charts included) and thank you to the PTB for an environment that could teach me self control and reason over emotion. Whether you know it or not you have helped me to create security for my family and myself in a world that is anything but secure.

Keep watching the fundamentals and don't worry. Today doesn't matter in this market.

Keep the faith.

Swampy.

Holy Avenger pbreed
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:52am

Quote: What twisted world has

Quote:

What twisted world has Europe in the middle of a bank run, gold down, silver down hard, and BAC is up 3% ?

This isn't a market its one of those twisted sadistic medical experiments where they torture you and measure your stress hormones.

It's a world where the entire global financial system is showing extreme stress indicative of it's terminal demise.

Stay strong my friends. You will be rewarded for making the correct but difficult choice of owning physical PM's.

ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:52am

Thanks for the reports

Keep them physical reports coming guys. Appreciate hearing your insight on the real market. I agree with you whole-heartidly GIL.

I also agree that if paper price continues to decline the premiums will get insane. Walking the tight rope this would be indeed.....

--

Turd, I loved the quote that the article you just presented started with....

It takes a PhD in economics not to be able to understand the obvious.
- Irving Kristol

Beautifully said.

-

And welcome Moderator Jackson. Glad to have you on the lookout.

dannyhaha ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:53am

Tried to buy at Gainsville coins

and when I got to the Confirm Order page it just locked up.

Would not repond.

And the Live Chat help feature was not online either.

It's a first.

Vincent
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:53am

Gold, the euro and Operation Twist

Gold, the euro and Operation Twist

2011-SEP-23

At first sight it is puzzling that systemic uncertainties are escalating rapidly in the eurozone and that the gold price is subdued. And if the press is to be believed, the euro might even disintegrate.

There is no doubt that Europe’s difficulties are a good reason to take out some insurance, but to argue that the fall-out from the euro crisis should increase demand for gold much beyond that is to misunderstand what gold is about. Yes, it is an effective temporary refuge from paper money in uncertain times, but the real reason for the price to rise is to be found in monetary inflation.

In managing the euro, the European Central Bank has done well to resist calls for substantial monetary easing, and by standing firm politicians have generally stopped badgering the ECB to do so. This has given some support to the euro and restricted flight from it to manageable quantities. True, the euro has fallen about 6% against the dollar, but then the dollar was overdue for a bounce. There is on-going panic in the eurozone, but all things considered there has not been much of a panic over the euro itself.

All this suggests that the fringe money that has gone out of the euro and into gold is for the central banks a containable problem. And if anyone has a deposit at say, a French bank, and is worried about it, it is far easier to move it to another too-big-to-fail bank elsewhere than to take a more difficult decision, such as “Do I buy some gold, even though the euro price has risen five-fold in the last eleven years?”

Meanwhile, there are far better reasons to sell the dollar and buy gold, even though the market’s initial response to the Federal Open Market Committee statement on Wednesday was to mark down precious metals along with everything else. Operation Twist disappointed those that were hoping for QE3, but realistically the headline focus was always going to shift to bank credit. Few commentators have picked up on this, but they should do in the coming weeks.

Put simply, the Fed is going to sell short-dated US Treasury stock and buy maturities of 6-30 years. The short-dated stock will most probably be bought by funds gearing up through the repo market, which will shift excess bank credit from the Fed balance-sheet into the banking system. This is consistent with the announcement last month, that funding rates will be held at current rates for the next two years.

While the Fed claims this will benefit the economy by lowering long-term rates, the true beneficiary is the Treasury, which gains an improved maturity profile at a ridiculously low cost. This is actually highly inflationary, as bank credit will expand to finance government borrowing through the repo market, and room will be created on the Fed’s balance sheet for up to $400bn of new money to be issued.

So not only do we have QE3 of $400bn, but we have an expansion of bank credit to match: now that is monetary inflation. What price gold when people actually wake up to what is going on?

Author: Alasdair Macleod

goldmoney.com
TitanAe
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:54am

I see

I see some green on my screen !!!!

OC15
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:54am

Rooting for the Morgue

to go up today so I can buy a couple fistfuls of puts before the deflationary collapse continues next week.

T
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:54am

buying physical

So translating the Turd's perspective (correct,I think) into the PSLV chart ,to buy 'physical' (without going to the coin shop)

I placed a stink bid last night at 15.50 and got filled . (the knife fell to 15.40 not a bad guess...) and I'm happy with some more PSLV.

The chart shows a solid left shoulder around the 14.00 area ...I plan to buy a little more around there (14.25 ) the zone is between 14 and 14.40

Below that theres 13.oo -13.50 area for a little more.

If its the same as buying bullion coins,these are the dips I see........ as spot silver corresponds

except that its not in my hand,yet unless I contact Sprott someday.

Looking at Sprotts Gold chart,PHYS, its close to my buy zone having fallen to 14.50 at the open but I just had a hunch it could draw closer down to the target around 14....maybe 14.25 I'll buy a little. Looks like it could get there today maybe.

¤
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:55am

WB> Do you read TFMR or ZH regularly?

I have a strong and obvious feeling that this "new" WB actively cruises the big PM forums and is seeking attention in a big way. It could just be some poster who likes to pretend and then read the reaction to their posts. They certainly have the PM crowds attention.

It's always some excuse or moving the goalposts out farther or farther for this WB.

So, if your out there and reading these forums or even this post (probably not) then you need to put up or shut up imo.

Do something to prove your "group" has any validity or juice when silver is this low and begging to be bought and your presence in the Ag market is undisputable. Be the market mover you're claiming to be. I don't think you can do so or you would be buying in a very noticeable way at this point.

Just for the record again. I'm not slamming anyone's beliefs here. Seriously, I'm not.

I secretly wish some entity was out there who could actually take our cause and belief system in silver to that next level and had some ability to do so.

Right now, the WB thing is a distraction that's starting to become laden with excuses and responses that are sensitive to PM forum posts.

do da, do da (really?)

JoeKa TF
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:56am

.

.

Mister
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:57am

Sorry for a long-winded post, but...

I'm a 40-ish stay-at-home dad of a toddler and a baby. My wife makes a decent wage and has job security. My jobs are to take care of the kids and to direct our investments. Stacking PMs is second nature for me; I've been doing so for 10 years. But a year ago, I decided to play the paper trading game, hoping to generate more $ for stacking.

Over the last year, I've spent hundreds of days and untold thousands of hours reading the PM "experts"; learning to read charts and perform TA; researching mining stocks, ETFs and other PM investment vehicles; and following all of the news that moves the markets. And, of course, obsessively watching and checking the live PM charts.

This week's shocking losses have forced me to reexamine my life. Between mining stocks and silver plays, I've lost my ass. The trading account has been completely decimated. Thankfully, it was only around 10% of our net worth. However, there are greater losses for me.

All of that research has been a colossal waste of my time. I'm a metals bull, so I've focused on those "experts" who tend to support my point of view. This confirmation bias kept me from using my common sense and dumping my silver horde in April. And because I stubbornly held onto my bullishness recently, it has cost me again. The "experts" didn't do me a whit of good. I was already stacking. But their confidence in a big Fall rally gave me the confidence to place some bold bets.

Don’t get me wrong; I don’t blame anyone else for my choices. I own them. But none of the big names that I follow gave a clarion cry prior to the May takedown, nor to this one. Seems like if Sinclair, Turk, Casey, et al can’t predict an imminent metals crash, then I don’t stand a chance. As some of the wiser folks around here figured out long ago, TA counts for jack shit when it is needed the most. I'm increasingly convinced that the paper game is nothing more than gambling.

Then, there’s the stress of trying to trade. Emotionally, the last year has made me angrier and more cynical, and fighting frustration and fear has been a constant. And there were so many times I put off my wife, daughters or other responsibilities – “Not right now. The market is at a critical point, and I have to watch my investments.” My priorities have been out of whack. All for naught.

I do believe that he who has the gold wins in the end. Silver, I don’t trust much any more. As I said last spring, I’m looking forward to the day when I swap the last of my Ag for Au. I’ll keep stacking gold when I can. But I’m not cut out for trading these highly volatile, heavily manipulated so-called markets. I don’t have deep enough pockets to properly hedge, and emotionally, it is not healthy for me. Kudos to those of you who trade well. You guys have a discipline that I have not yet been able to cultivate for myself.

Tl; dr – I suck at trading. This shit has changed me for the worse, but I'm fixing that. Let’s all keep our priorities straight. And keep stacking.

Bay of Pigs
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:57am

Silver shortages

Are coming. That's my call. How are "lower prices" any good when you can't get your hands on it? That's exactly what happened in 2008. Silver went to $9 but you couldn't find or buy any at that price. None.

I find it amazing and dumbfounding that some people here see this as "normal" or a "healthy correction".

Seriously? WTF? This is as screwed up as it can get. Banks are green today. Give me a break.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:57am

for all the low $20 something silver callers...

could it go that low temporarily? sure, anything is possible.

but fess up, how many of you were also calling for that during the may 1 dip?

when silver moves up calls of $200 are as common as these when it moves down.

margaritatime
Sep 23, 2011 - 10:59am

@dannyhaha

On days like this, I would not use automation (website ordering). I would call Gainsville, even if it means listening to elevator music while on hold and talk directly to the trading desk. A little past experience in this - try not to call during the lunch hours (roughly 11 - 3 EST).

Hammer
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:00am

...........and this, ladies

...........and this, ladies and gentlemen is why it is wise to DCA in over time in the physical.

But I am looking forward one day to hoping this happens to the (imo) immoral and some would claim fraudulent things that go on in banking and so on :)

warning..naughty words in the song.

surf wipe-outs compilation
tpbeta OC15
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:01am

You never SELL your physical

I sold my physical in late April at $48. Now I can buy it back at $32 and more. Why do people always say you should never sell physical. It's a bit dogmatic isn't it?

MrSteed
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:04am

perspective

8 months ago I funded my precious metals account from my brokerage account. At the time the brokerage account had far more $ in it. Today, while both accounts are down from their highs, the brokerage account now has far LESS $ than the precious metal one. If I hadn't done the precious metal swap, I'd be looking at far LESS $ in my total account right now. The precious metal account is a physical-based, allocated, vault one that I add to periodically -- ie it's dollar cost average "stacking". So, in terms of "preserving wealth" in uncertain times, the precious metals are still doing their job. Just some perspective.

Look around. If you're an investor, what else looks like a fairly safe place to put your money? Not much.

HeNateMe
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:04am

Watch Out Boys She'll Chew You Up

Driving to work this morning after sitting at my computer getting updated on what took place overnight. Turned on the radio to the slow mysterious beat of:

"Oh Oh here she comes. Watch out boys she'll chew you up! Oh Oh here she comes. She's a man eater!"

Thought that was appropriate for this morning. Well, she is a fiat eater. She won't/can't eat my physical though. Bad for her digestion.

Anywho, take care today you all. I am waiting for $24 based on Turd's advice. I am realizing more and more that the lower it goes the more I can afford to buy and the better off I will be in the end. I ain't selling or swapping my PMs for a heck of a long time. Plunge in price is therefore A+ beneficial for me.

"She'll only come out at night. The lean and hungry type. Nothing is new, I've seen her here before..."

Video unavailable
Iowegian
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:05am

Grandich

I remain a strong Peter Grandich fan. He is turning positive... taking nibbles in Gold and Silver in this area. And funniest... he is taunting Tokyo Rose, otherwise known as Ralph Nader, (again). I love it!

I have never lost money listening to Grandich's macro recommendations. Based upon his prediction I am turning positive as well.

https://www.grandich.com/2011/09/its-that-time-again-gold-1689-silver-32-34-and-100000-challenge/

Also, I would recommend that you listen to his last interview on 9-22-2011:

https://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/peter-grandich-radio/

In it Grandich compares the economic quagmire in Greece and Ireland. Basically, Ireland is taking the necessary austerity cuts while Greece has rebuffed everything. The ten year bond charts tell the story. They both looked very similar going into 2010. However, Greece is now headed for the abyss while Ireland is righting the ship. Guess which way the US is heading? Think about it and do not sell those metals!

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jackmeoff
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:06am

@tpbeta

I have not sold an oz and dont believe in selling phys for paper gains. I do however play with puts when things feel off and is how I get more. This way I dont lose a big move up and risk chasing it but am also protected to the downside and can buy more when I get a nice gain.

ScottJ
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:06am

Re: Thoughts on WB

I secretly wish some entity was out there who could actually take our cause and belief system in silver to that next level and had some ability to do so.

Which is why the WB is popular.

I just don't like the fact that he/she posts on yahoo message boards. I mean come on, you can't even create a basic website where people can come and focus on the material you are presenting? How hard would it be.... instead wanders on the yahoo message boards. The place of trolls.

IMO, WB is a nice infiltrated perspective that helps keep the "precious metal community" piece together information in meaningless ways (gives them reasons to justify price movements?). Is it so hard to believe that this was just to crush gold and silver as a sound currency instead of protecting derivatives bomb? Maybe. Who knows, and who really cares... because the dollar is gonna blow soon enough anyways. And at that point, I could care less about WB, JP Morgan, and all of the nonsense they represent.

I will give him/her credit that she has some interesting theories, and can captivate an audience, but until I see more accredation out of the posts instead of cryptic messages on the yahoo message boards, I will just take it as any other opinion.

-

You know... if TPTB & the EE are willing to go through all of these things to manipulate our perception, our markets, and our life.... is it so hard to believe that they could have an infiltrated source to help them smooth over the beliefs of those who are aware of the conjob, but are willing to play along with it?

Just my thoughts. I do read all of the posts though. Worthwhile to try to figure out in this game of mysteries.

badScooter
Sep 23, 2011 - 11:07am

hell with this...

@Mister...thanks for the reality check. Been there, done that, unnnn-healthy.

I'm going to go take a nap. How many times do I have to learn the lesson...to not sit and watch the ticks! I'm going to turn my damn platform off and check again an hour before market close, and if we're anywhere in the 20's at all, buy. If price rubber bands, I'll take my powder and invest in some hams instead!

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