OK, Here Are Some Charts

Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 9:43am

I hope you're sitting down because these charts are not pretty.

First of all, I'm not going to waste your time with 15-minute and 2-hour charts because, frankly, those charts aren't worth the paper they'd be printed on. In a global liquidation event, you can throw TA and the fundos out the window. Eventually, however, buyers will emerge to take advantage of the discounted prices. The question is, where? Maybe we can find some answers on the longer-term charts.

First up, gold. Of course, none of the fundos have changed. More on that in a minute. Technically, however, gold looks like it could drop another $100 or so. We've been following the 8/7 gap on the charts since it happened. Though there have certainly been moments when it looked like gold would not go down and fill that gap, it appears almost certain now. And don't expect it to stop there. The charts below certainly seem to indicate that gold could fall below 1600 before finding some substantial bids. Therefore, for now, I'm not buying anything. Not even any physical. I'm waiting, confident that I can save $100/ounce if I'm patient.

Silver is an absolute disaster but it is only doing what silver does. As I mentioned last night, if you elect to trade in an unregulated market that is dominated by an uber-short which has virtually unlimited financial and political backing to defend its position, you're going to get your ass kicked every once in a while. And I don't think that the current beating is over yet. Furthermore, if you're a believer in the whole "wynter benton" thing, then how can seriously expect JPM to go down without a fight? In fact, this kind of 24-hour destruction almost validates the entire WB "story". If JPM really is threatened by "60 days of silver over " or whatever it is, then wouldn't you expect them to hammer silver before the deadline? I mean, they're not going to go all Dylan Thomas on you and simply "go gentle into that good night". That said, if silver doesn't stop right here, at the lows of May, then it's going considerably lower, as the charts below show. Though I'd love to buy some more Maples here, I'm waiting on this one, too. At , I can buy 4 sleeves for the same amount of fiat that would get me 3 sleeves at .

One last thing, I may not know much but one thing I do know is that this whole "deflation is coming" stuff is bullshit. Yes, by failing to add additional QE this week, The Fed had set off a chain of events that will finish off any hope of economic recovery and, yes, the value of your house and your 401(k) is headed lower. However, deflation will not solve the current global debt crisis. That's not how it works. You cannot deflate your way out of debt. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion. The only way out is devaluation of the currency. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

What we are entering is the worst possible outcome and the worst of all worlds for the average, everyday person. Your fiat-based wealth is going to decline. Your wages will stagnate if not decline. But, the cost you pay for everything from milk to bread to gasoline is going to skyrocket. Eventually, this will lead to civil unrest, political instability and even revolutions. So let me state this again very clearly: THE ONLY FINANCIAL PROTECTION YOU HAVE AGAINST THIS COMING MADNESS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be patient. Help each other. Do not be small and/or petty. Use your brain. Do not panic like the sheep. Stay alert. Survive and prosper. TF

11:15 am EDT UPDATE:

​The metals are catching some bids but don't allow yourself to get sucked in just yet. Dec11 gold bottomed at 1668 but that is still about $16 above the level it needs to fall to if it's going to close that gap on the daily chart. I can't imagine gold falling all this way and not closing the gap so look for at least a double-bottom soon, if not a dip toward 1650 and slightly below. Be patient. Contrary to previous Friday's, I doubt there will be much buying on the afternoon Globex. Probably more selling, instead, as weak hands head for the exits rather than stay long over the weekend.

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 23, 2011 - 9:47am

signs of life

united we stand. fight fight fight!

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:47am


Double down?

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:49am

Thanks Turd!

I tried to grab some physical silver yesterday but couldn't get the guy to at the coin shop to sell it to me. I am glad in a sense now though, like you I will wait to pick it up at a cheaper price. Please let us know when you go to get some physical silver.

'Till then, I am sitting tight!

Thanks again Turd.

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:50am
Sep 23, 2011 - 9:51am

Thanks TF!

Thanks TF!

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:52am

The germans are not going to

The germans are not going to bailout the rest of Europe 'German finance minister says the recapitalisation of European banks is not a matter for ECB, but the member states'

So has the printing stopped ?

Have the PM's had their run ?

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:55am

Turd visited the Bernank?

From GATA - "Get Ready - To all... for Gold to turn up and explode! This is NOT 2008 all over again. The markets across the globe are turning a huge "thumbs down" to yesterday's Fed announcement. Instead of a rabbit, it looks like Fed pulled a huge turd out of their hat."

​Sad, funny and true enough in a metaphorical way. But in all seriousness...

Turd, your post was, in a word... perfect. It really is all about preparing. Your heart is in the right, good place. Thank you for reminding the denizens and visitors of this board. We should not forget where we are headed and what we need to be doing. Gold and silver are critically important to our financial survival, but they are but one aspect of our preparation.

​Now, on the markets: We all know the markets are rigged. Those that didn't have now paid for the education. I'm sorry for that and I hope that most here didn't lose more than they could afford in this massive, engineered theft by the banking cartel. I also hope that most folks here have been buying physical. If so, their 'account' value is the same or greater (more rare) than it was before this planned robbery.

If the denizens here had good* mining shares (and they know the game), they can rest assured that they are holding a solid investment that may be down, or way down at the moment on paper or their computer screens (mine are way down too), but unless they sold at losses they have not lost anything but time and maybe some fingernails. Perhaps they momentarily lost sanity too, but that will return... hopefully, as their patience is amply rewarded for holding.

​For those traders that are now washed up on the shore, my heart goes out to you. Whether you got stopped out or trapped and stomped on or just lost money due to the greed or fear factors... or just inexperience and bad timing, I hope you are not out of funds. If you are left with no fiat, try and scrape more together because the gold and silver trains haven't even left the station yet.

This is a very bad time for noobs to be learning to be traders. Most will lunge for the golden ring, fall short and lose everything. If you insist on being a trader, at least get a basic investment education. Don't try to chase anything to recoup your losses overnight or you'll double down your debt. Right here on this board and in the forums you can get a classic education by following Turd's advice (and read his caveats!), and pay attention to the resident pros around here, like Atlee and others on this thread and particularly Pailin's trading corner (but remember, trader's objectives, choices and timelines are different than investors).

​It's hard to know who to place your trust in when it comes to stock picks, timing and TA. Perhaps some of the pros here can form what might be called a "Pro Long PM Investor Roundtable" that would provide a compiled grading chart of miners as well as entry/exit points. That would be nice and helpful to many, but probably not practical. Whatever the case, please discern those you attempt to mimmick and do your own due diligence (as best you can). If you don't understand the fundamentals and math allowing you to DYODD, then you should rely on the ones that do.

​Physical may not ride up as fast as miners in the coming months, but the math is easy and the risk is about as low as it gets.

*you'll have to assess your own risk with small, mid or large caps. Eric has a good list of smalls. Maybe he and/or someone could put together a listing of solid, oversold mid and large caps?

ps: after posting the CFTC weirdness and then seeing the waterfall action yesterday (which I half expected but was still disgusted), I shut down and got most of my fall garden in the ground. Just what I needed.

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:58am

Did we found and kill bin

Did we found and kill bin laden again ??

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:58am


Don't be surprise to see 14xx or 13xx or 12xx...and sliver....wut about 24 or 19???? seriously!!! why not face the fact instead of living within an illusion??? for those who merely care about the number...coz...they have bin numbered...but next week...Option ex...yu care??? but some big heads don't even give it a damn...why? coz..they hide themselve UNDERGROUND...then leave yu guys here...keep wondering around ..which number is right....so funny...take a look then



don't worry..coz...seldom sheeples know that...coz...it's all about number.....why not just wait for monthly bottom..coz..it's just around the corner....but yur president DO NOT EVEN CARE!!!!! why ya???? why? simple Q.

Sep 23, 2011 - 9:58am

Good Post

Thank You

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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