OK, Here Are Some Charts

Fri, Sep 23, 2011 - 9:43am

I hope you're sitting down because these charts are not pretty.

First of all, I'm not going to waste your time with 15-minute and 2-hour charts because, frankly, those charts aren't worth the paper they'd be printed on. In a global liquidation event, you can throw TA and the fundos out the window. Eventually, however, buyers will emerge to take advantage of the discounted prices. The question is, where? Maybe we can find some answers on the longer-term charts.

First up, gold. Of course, none of the fundos have changed. More on that in a minute. Technically, however, gold looks like it could drop another $100 or so. We've been following the 8/7 gap on the charts since it happened. Though there have certainly been moments when it looked like gold would not go down and fill that gap, it appears almost certain now. And don't expect it to stop there. The charts below certainly seem to indicate that gold could fall below 1600 before finding some substantial bids. Therefore, for now, I'm not buying anything. Not even any physical. I'm waiting, confident that I can save $100/ounce if I'm patient.


Silver is an absolute disaster but it is only doing what silver does. As I mentioned last night, if you elect to trade in an unregulated market that is dominated by an uber-short which has virtually unlimited financial and political backing to defend its position, you're going to get your ass kicked every once in a while. And I don't think that the current beating is over yet. Furthermore, if you're a believer in the whole "wynter benton" thing, then how can seriously expect JPM to go down without a fight? In fact, this kind of 24-hour destruction almost validates the entire WB "story". If JPM really is threatened by "60 days of silver over $36" or whatever it is, then wouldn't you expect them to hammer silver before the deadline? I mean, they're not going to go all Dylan Thomas on you and simply "go gentle into that good night". That said, if silver doesn't stop right here, at the lows of May, then it's going considerably lower, as the charts below show. Though I'd love to buy some more Maples here, I'm waiting on this one, too. At $24, I can buy 4 sleeves for the same amount of fiat that would get me 3 sleeves at $32.


One last thing, I may not know much but one thing I do know is that this whole "deflation is coming" stuff is bullshit. Yes, by failing to add additional QE this week, The Fed had set off a chain of events that will finish off any hope of economic recovery and, yes, the value of your house and your 401(k) is headed lower. However, deflation will not solve the current global debt crisis. That's not how it works. You cannot deflate your way out of debt. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion. The only way out is devaluation of the currency. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

What we are entering is the worst possible outcome and the worst of all worlds for the average, everyday person. Your fiat-based wealth is going to decline. Your wages will stagnate if not decline. But, the cost you pay for everything from milk to bread to gasoline is going to skyrocket. Eventually, this will lead to civil unrest, political instability and even revolutions. So let me state this again very clearly: THE ONLY FINANCIAL PROTECTION YOU HAVE AGAINST THIS COMING MADNESS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER. Period. End of story. Not open for discussion.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be patient. Help each other. Do not be small and/or petty. Use your brain. Do not panic like the sheep. Stay alert. Survive and prosper. TF

11:15 am EDT UPDATE:

​The metals are catching some bids but don't allow yourself to get sucked in just yet. Dec11 gold bottomed at 1668 but that is still about $16 above the level it needs to fall to if it's going to close that gap on the daily chart. I can't imagine gold falling all this way and not closing the gap so look for at least a double-bottom soon, if not a dip toward 1650 and slightly below. Be patient. Contrary to previous Friday's, I doubt there will be much buying on the afternoon Globex. Probably more selling, instead, as weak hands head for the exits rather than stay long over the weekend.

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


survivalwstyle · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:47am

signs of life

united we stand. fight fight fight!

Spaced_out · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:47am


Double down?

JimmyTheHand · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:49am

Thanks Turd!

I tried to grab some physical silver yesterday but couldn't get the guy to at the coin shop to sell it to me. I am glad in a sense now though, like you I will wait to pick it up at a cheaper price. Please let us know when you go to get some physical silver.

'Till then, I am sitting tight! 

Thanks again Turd.

FleetFeet · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:50am

Good commentary


Vincent · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:51am

Thanks TF!

Thanks TF!

churchill · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:52am

The germans are not going to

The germans are not going to bailout the rest of Europe 'German finance minister says the recapitalisation of European banks is not a matter for ECB, but the member states'

So has the printing stopped ?

Have the PM's had their run ?

Larry · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:55am

Turd visited the Bernank?

From GATA - "Get Ready - To all... for Gold to turn up and explode! This is NOT 2008 all over again. The markets across the globe are turning a huge "thumbs down" to yesterday's Fed announcement. Instead of a rabbit, it looks like Fed pulled a huge turd out of their hat."

​Sad, funny and true enough in a metaphorical way. But in all seriousness...

Turd, your post was, in a word... perfect. It really is all about preparing. Your heart is in the right, good place. Thank you for reminding the denizens and visitors of this board. We should not forget where we are headed and what we need to be doing. Gold and silver are critically important to our financial survival, but they are but one aspect of our preparation. 

​Now, on the markets: We all know the markets are rigged. Those that didn't have now paid for the education. I'm sorry for that and I hope that most here didn't lose more than they could afford in this massive, engineered theft by the banking cartel. I also hope that most folks here have been buying physical. If so, their 'account' value is the same or greater (more rare) than it was before this planned robbery.

If the denizens here had good* mining shares (and they know the game), they can rest assured that they are holding a solid investment that may be down, or way down at the moment on paper or their computer screens (mine are way down too), but unless they sold at losses they have not lost anything but time and maybe some fingernails. Perhaps they momentarily lost sanity too, but that will return... hopefully, as their patience is amply rewarded for holding.

​For those traders that are now washed up on the shore, my heart goes out to you. Whether you got stopped out or trapped and stomped on or just lost money due to the greed or fear factors... or just inexperience and bad timing, I hope you are not out of funds. If you are left with no fiat, try and scrape more together because the gold and silver trains haven't even left the station yet.

This is a very bad time for noobs to be learning to be traders. Most will lunge for the golden ring, fall short and lose everything. If you insist on being a trader, at least get a basic investment education. Don't try to chase anything to recoup your losses overnight or you'll double down your debt. Right here on this board and in the forums you can get a classic education by following Turd's advice (and read his caveats!), and pay attention to the resident pros around here, like Atlee and others on this thread and particularly Pailin's trading corner (but remember, trader's objectives, choices and timelines are different than investors). 

​It's hard to know who to place your trust in when it comes to stock picks, timing and TA. Perhaps some of the pros here can form what might be called a "Pro Long PM Investor Roundtable" that would provide a compiled grading chart of miners as well as entry/exit points. That would be nice and helpful to many, but probably not practical. Whatever the case, please discern those you attempt to mimmick and do your own due diligence (as best you can). If you don't understand the fundamentals and math allowing you to DYODD, then you should rely on the ones that do.

​Physical may not ride up as fast as miners in the coming months, but the math is easy and the risk is about as low as it gets.

*you'll have to assess your own risk with small, mid or large caps. Eric has a good list of smalls. Maybe he and/or someone could put together a listing of solid, oversold mid and large caps?

ps: after posting the CFTC weirdness and then seeing the waterfall action yesterday (which I half expected but was still disgusted), I shut down and got most of my fall garden in the ground. Just what I needed. 

raulv · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:58am

Did we found and kill bin

Did we found and kill bin laden again ??

Drut · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:58am


Don't be surprise to see 14xx or 13xx or 12xx...and sliver....wut about 24 or 19???? seriously!!! why not face the fact instead of living within an illusion??? for those who merely care about the number...coz...they have bin numbered...but next week...Option ex...yu care??? but some big heads don't even give it a damn...why? coz..they hide themselve UNDERGROUND...then leave yu guys here...keep wondering around ..which number is right....so funny...take a look then



don't worry..coz...seldom sheeples know that...coz...it's all about number.....why not just wait for monthly bottom..coz..it's just around the corner....but yur president DO NOT EVEN CARE!!!!! why ya???? why? simple Q.

RedRover · Sep 23, 2011 - 9:58am

Good Post

Thank You

jackmeoff · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:00am

Think its done

For some reason I think the selling is not just done but over done. Just got long agq 170 calls. I think we are back to 36 by next week. Just too much panic selling in silver for me. If I am wrong then so be it but I have to go on my gut feeling on this.

indosil · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:00am

silver just hit the lows in

silver just hit the lows in 32ssss.....believe me or not but i personally believe that Blythe has a major presence in the INDIAN MCX...Ag & Au..remain constant during the rest of the Asian market but as soon as the Indian market open..KABOOM.....point to Ponder & work upon TURD!!!!!!

agauinvest · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:01am


Clif High's report came out a few days ago, and this entry by Turd sounds eerily similar to what Clif wrote. 

Over55 · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:01am

Thanks for the charts, no

Thanks for the charts, no matter how chippy they look :0

allngap · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:01am

Turd,  Gold is heading back


Gold is heading back to its channel based from 2008's base ? 

Silver seemed to be catching bids at 32.6

bounced off 4 times from there, but anything might happen right ?

tpbeta · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:03am

$24 silver

You serious? Really? C'mon.

CauseChange · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:04am

Failures and champions

Unfortunately i did not get out in time, I am based in Europe so I woke up to an account that was practically wiped out, needless to say the smith agents of the matrix kicked my 50 times leveraged ass....No guts no glory. I am a long term guy and actually fairly greatfull that it happened so fast. Trading was eating me up inside and ruining my family life. I managed to retire on my winnings though and kill them on the physical side so it was meant to be.... I just wished I could have gotten out on my own terms..... but then again it became an addiction and I may never have. Glad you got out if you did and if you didn't it was meant to be and at least it was quick and fairly painless.... It would happen sooner or later one way or the other any way..... Don't let them eat you up. Secure the physical and you will never have to worry.... I don't know what will happen next.... But I am not afraid any more... Much love and gratitude Causechange

¤ · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:06am


I hear you on that distinction.

Yes, were screwed to some extent but we have our phyz and our PM investments in place to help us through it when that barbarous, traditional relic of gold is once again used as a source of wealth to peg everything else against. Like it has been from the beginning of human history for the most part.

It's almost a historical aberration that gold has not been used as a currency since FDR/The Fed. had it confiscated. If we were to look back on history maybe 100-500 years from now and gold was still in play from today going forward, we would look back on the period from 193?-2011 as a period where the money changers swindled and ponzied the banking system and got away with it until they were banished/jailed or just plain old common sense prevailed because a historical fiat currency crisis necessitated it.

Everyone on the planet would accept gold as that backstop. It's not like we are going to use food or water as that currency backstop even if they are the two most important things to humans on the entire planet.

It blows my mind that the CB'ers of the past 100 years or so have totally manipulated the entire balance of the planet, whether it be wars or the ability/need for them to create indebtedness by issuing a paper note for almost every conceivable transaction that they could have thought of.

I agree with all others on here, including TF, that were much, much closer to a systemic change in most aspects of life and business/commerce that we try to conceive of but simply can't.

It's never happened before on this scale with this much technology in the hands of men who seem to have some type of extreme narcissistic/sociopathic tendency to burn the entire neighborhood down around them as long as it doesn't effect them.

Other then that, smile and make a Bloody Mary or something. TGIF!

Should be a interesting weekend for sure.

ScottJ · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:06am

Any reports from physical dealers?

Anyone have any experiences with physical dealers? Local dealers? Anything that can shed some light on them not dealing/higher premiums?

I agree, $24 dollars is a bit far-fetched, even in their controlled games. The worldwide physical supply would be greatly strained, and for what purpose? Physical will be the ultimate achille's heal for this fractional bullion banking ponzi scheme, not the price per share of your chance to ride along with the fantasy markets.

IMF meeting this weekend -- Stay tuned.

Goofy · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:07am

@churchill. Oh yes they will

@churchill. Oh yes they will print. The politics now is just a sideshow!

(Reuters) - The European bailout fund should be expanded to more than 1 trillion euros to cope with a deepening of the Greek debt crisis, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot was quoted as saying on Friday.


JP McManus · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:07am

0% Gain 0% Loss

I keep 100 ASEs in my desk drawer. When the POS was higher, I opened the drawer and counted them. Sure enough, still 100 of them. Yesterday, I opened the drawer and counted out... 100. I keep stacking in my safe, but I'll keep the 100 ASEs in the drawer to remind myself that 100 ounces of silver a year ago is still 100 ounces of silver today.

margaritatime · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:08am



"As the resident GSR physical swap expert, was 51 the right number this morning?"

Yes, anything above 49 is significant. I am just waiting for my broker to open to make the exchange now – I am swapping all Au in my possession today.

I will throw caution to the wind here. 49 was a VERY significant number to cross. It has more to do with other indexes such as the movement in DJI, and even other markets such as FTSE and DAX. This GSR is pointing to turning points in equities. Particularly liquidation. The most notable thing is that the 50mda of the GSR has crossed the 200dma GSR. This indicates VERY extended territory.

This is not the same as the 2008 liquidation. Some aspects are similar, but this is not the same. I am not saying this is bottom. This is simply the point that I decided would be a GSR exchange point, and quite honestly, I did not think the fundos supported anything over 49. I realize the GSR has been as high as 100 – but other indexes were not where they are now at that time. This is more of a perfect storm as far as liquidity goes. It wont stay here long.

agauinvest · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:11am

Stumbled across this

Stumbled across this article, which I think fits in with Turd's very big picture. It's about poverty in the suburbs, and seemed pretty well done for CNN.


Exergy · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:12am

Every wife loves a sale!

My wife is a very clever lady and is ploddingly conservative from an investment perspective ...but constantly wins that way. 

Anyway she just called me and suggested gold is on sale and that we NEED to BUY some more physical. 

After I picked myself up I quite cleverly told her that she is correct as usual but the "community" feels that we might get a bit more of a sale so we will buy... but perhaps later today or early next week once we see that the prices have stopped falling.

Turd...thanks for the reminder and calm....and thanks to the rest for a balanced discussion of reality.

Remember... this is about protecting what you have FIRST... getting wealthy SECOND.

Now I have to go buy her some flowers for being right again :)

Dr G ScottJ · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:12am

@ScottJ, woke my dealer up

@ScottJ, woke my dealer up this morning. Still selling ASEs for $3.50 over spot and Maples/Phils for $3.00 over spot. His usual. That may change tomorrow, but that's what it is today.

badScooter · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:13am


I'm DCA-ing into the BTFD event, that's all I know. It'll either come back and it won't matter, the world will implode and it won't matter, or lollipops will sprout and the unicorns will come back and it won't matter.

Dr G · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:14am

My thoughts

I posted yesterday that silver won't bottom out until the high 20s. I still believe it. All signs point to it.

I also posted that gold would go to $1100 and got laughed at. We shall see. And for the record, I'm as long as you can be with the metals. Super bull. But I'm also realistic about manipulation that MUST take place for QE3 to happen.

And like said yesterday, the Dow:gold ratio could be 2:1 with 12,000:6,000, but who is to say that 3,000:1,500 isn't more likely? It's not about the actual number in fiat that gold equates to, but about the preservation and purchasing power.​ So, with everything continuing to fall today, you can rest assured that gold, although falling, is still preserving wealth in relationship to everything else.

tread_w_care · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:15am

Truck is backed up and idling . . .

I may cut off the engine to save some dead dinosaurs and see if we get down to 1600.

Of course, by then, with my luck, there won't be much physical left to buy . . .

I'm not even opening my paper account trading application any more. Don't want to know. 

Ferd Torgerson margaritatime · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:16am

@ margaritatime

See where you're swapping AU for more AG.

Will hold onto my AU since I don't have that much.

Given your position of trading AU for AG, if you were standing there strictly with cash, would you be buying AG at these prices or waiting? That's what I'm considering - adding to my AG.


¤ · Sep 23, 2011 - 10:17am

Stay strong TF/others

This is exactly what we've been expecting to some degree, except we didn't know to what extent.

As much as it sucks to watch or think about it is necessary for it to happen. It was inevitable and we will emerge at some point sooner then we can imagine.

Good day for a walk or hike probably for some of you. Myself also.. 

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