No Charts Tonight

Thu, Sep 22, 2011 - 11:27pm

After a long day, I knew I had to post something for you. If anything we have to start a new thread because the old one is now over 600 comments. I could take what has become the usual theme and expand on it but I'm not going to. No charts tonight. Just a brief, frank discussion about what is to come.

First of all, for those who still think in fiat status quo terms, on a percentage basis gold was down far less than equities today. If you're in silver, you got your butt kicked. But hey, if you're going to be trading silver, you'd better get used to getting your butt kicked every once in a while. When you're in a market that is controlled and dominated by an uber-short which can manipulate price at any time of their choosing, you are, occasionally, going to get your butt kicked. Period. 

But my questions for you tonight are: Why does this even matter? Are you angry tonight because the fiat-conversion value of your gold and/or silver stack declined? And why did it decline? Did it decline because actual demand is less or did it decline because the paper-metal, 100:1 leveraged futures market went down? And why are you buying and holding metal in the first place? Is it because you're trying to make a fiat-based trading profit? Really? Well, OK. But why are you doing that? So you can take your profits and buy more physical metal? If that's the case, you should celebrate days like this because your fiat buys you more metal tonight than it did last night. And is QE over? Is the dollar suddenly the world's strongest currency because the U.S. implemented about $1.5T in 2012 austerity measures overnight? 

Look, you need to understand right here and right now that we are far closer to the end than you think. I know how hard that is to comprehend, especially coming from a guy you don't know, who writes an anonymous blog under the pseudonym of "Turd". And I know its hard to believe because, if you were born after 1930 or so, you've never known a world without U.S. hegemony. Life has always been easy for the U.S. and its pals. We manufacture money out of whole cloth and stash the incumbent inflation on the shores of our unsuspecting imperial subjects. Well, those days are over, my friend. The proverbial chicken isn't just coming home. It's on the roost right freaking now!

Of all the things that The Bernank could have done yesterday, $400B in "Operation Twist" was actually the worst possible move. Quantitative Easing was always designed to buy time. Time was purchased in the faint hope that the economy would recover sufficiently to generate enough tax revenue that The Great Ponzi could continue. In the end, it wasn't going to work but at least, if The Bernank had opted for another trill or so of new QE, he might have succeeded in putting off the inevitable a little while longer. Now, the smartest-guy-in-the-room thinks he can massage just enough global chaos to create demand for the $400B in short-term treasuries he wants to sell. But the problem is, Mr Smart Guy won't be able to control the chaos he's created and the attendant global economic freefall will only serve to destroy the last hope of the economic growth needed to stave off the ultimate Keynesian collapse. It's a fait accompli now. Done deal. Over and out.

So, going forward, this site is going to return to its originally stated goal:

The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare Accordingly.

Don't worry, I'll still attempt to predict future, short-term movements in gold and silver but that is not going to be the primary focus of this site. It can't be. Why? Certainty. Huh?

1) No one...not even the Great and Powerful Turd...can, on a consistent basis, predict price with a high degree of accuracy.

2) I can, however, tell you with 100% accuracy that tomorrow is not going to be like yesterday. The world in which you grew up is not the world in which you will grow old. 

If, by the grace of God, we've been granted the wisdom to see this future clearly, then it is incumbent upon us to use this platform to warn and educate as many as possible while there is still time to prepare.

That's all for now. It's been a long day and I need some R&R. Let's see where the metals trade overnight. I strongly suspect that the paper futures market is headed down to fill the gap on the chart from 8/7/11 at 1665 or so. Probably not tomorrow but soon. We'll see. More in the U.S. a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 22, 2011 - 11:34pm

I love it

When a plan comes together............Thanks Ben for the price break.

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:35pm

First! Are you kidding me?!

First! Are you kidding me?! Awesome!!

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:37pm

Keep stacking, I love this

Keep stacking, I love this stuff.

3rd is good with me.

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:39pm

Bless you Turd.  Rest well.

Bless you Turd. Rest well.

Muddy Chicken
Sep 22, 2011 - 11:39pm

Great Post

It feels ominous in silver. 2008 style.

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:40pm

Royally f*cked

Consider the meaning of that phrase. Royally, as in by a majestic power, one that has absolute control over the facets of your life. That's how I feel and if you don't as well, there's something missing from your picture.

Turdle GG
Sep 22, 2011 - 11:42pm

For Turd, with thanks

There are many in need. When someone says, 'Why doesn't God do something about it?' I think, 'He did. He sent you. Why do you think you are here?' So there is always something to do, even if it is a small thing, little and unnoticed by the world. You have not been created in vain. You have your work, you have your calling that no other person can perform the same as you.

(stolen from Jesse)

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:42pm

Thanks Big T

God Bless

Long John
Sep 22, 2011 - 11:42pm

thanks Turd...

...I needed that~

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:44pm

Repost from the end of the

The Mutton Birds - Anchor Me (Original Version)
Sep 22, 2011 - 11:44pm

Thanks Turd

Thank you for the update.

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:47pm


After being FIRST tonight, please let me expound upon Turd's comment. Please know I am not some religious type..just someone who wants to do the right thing ( I hope ). By the grace of God we have been given wisdom. Not intelligence..but wisdom. We are here because if this is truly the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment, then some day we may need to provide for others. For those who do not believe in this...that's cool. THIS was the reason I personally began to follow the precious metals. To maybe help others some day, and to protect those I love. If cold hearted money can be used for noble causes, then I pray we shall be blessed. Thanks.

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:50pm

Bernanke the problem?

Not quite sure if you are suggesting that the Bernanke is acting out of his own plan or by those who whisper in his ear (the EE).

I don't think Ben "chose" this path, but rather it fits into the macro-agenda that is being set up. He is nothing but a PR manager for the Federal Reserve. Not the man in charge.... This has more to do with how the global financial world is unfolding at this current time IMO, as each of their steps has been carefully thought out well in advance of this. Not spur of the moment decisions if I had to guess....

Thanks for your emphasis on the fact that this is happening faster than most realize. Once things start unraveling there is no putting them back together.... the half-life of stimulus effectiveness will approach zero....


I wrote a comment deep on the last thread about today's actions being comparable to financial warfare attacks on the general public. Some tactics just work too efficiently, and are repeated over and over in history :\.

"Financial Blitzkrieg." --

Today, you have witnessed financial blitz krieg. While many think we are living in a free world, we are not. There are those who wish to see man comply, lose one sense of self, and steal the wealth they have worked for. A new form of slavery in which embodies itself in the financial system. When they say money is the root of all evil... it is because it is.... the currency in which we use is suppose to represent time, energy, value, and honesty. The Federal Reserve Note is NOTHING of any of these.

The Gold market is at the crux of the dollar extinction event, and thus is subject to extreme warfare tactics that so blatantly displays their ruthless oppression upon the free man via their own financial system, in front of all to gaze at, with no consequences in the short run. A performance designed for a multitude of reasons, but mainly to keep the unaware unsuspecting a little bit longer, until they can unveil their next stages of the agenda.

P.S. -- One chart I am liking is Platinum. I don't follow platinum often, but as you can tell by its movements it is clearly heavily linked to gold/silver movements. If platinum can hold its 10 month support, it would bode well for gold/silver. Notice the higher highs it made and the since retest of lows since doing so. Just food for thought, not a bottom call.

Sep 22, 2011 - 11:54pm


Nicely said. 

Right you are others will need help, and hopefully there will be those that offer it so we don't go down the road from which we have come. Otherwise I fear the end of Keynesian times will reveal a world that I do not want to be a part of.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:01am

bEEr 30

yep. one of those days. red everywhere. blEEding from my head to my toes. i did not seLL 1 oz of GOLD.

i actuaLLy have more metal than i woke up with and leSS paper. WIN WIN, fOOk paper. 

after work went to the coin shop. left w/ 90% @ 25x face. straight to the draught house where i managed to blow an OZ of Ag worth on local kind bEEr and of course my wife picked me up and drove me here;o)

please excuse my sincere fear, that i get to do this again, the AM is near....home safe and sound, and ready for what friday brings around.

the paper price is a joke. leSS IS MORE in my FIAT aCCount.....then i came home and glad to sEE joeKa and his asian friends show up. back aboce 36 as i type this. 

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:02am

First Post One Question

1 Question : Everyone Knew Operation Twist was coming and in the amounts given ( even the LIESMAN had it right ), so for the last 2 weeks how come no one saw the sell off coming ?

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:04am

Correct Scott

This is the game ....trying to anticipate the paper trade is an art. If you are certain of a short term trade then you are probably wrong. You can only use the tools at hand which frequently boil down to raw determination. Certainly all the noise from the pundits on CNBC have to be filtered, but they can provide clues. An extreme level of bullishness and hourly commentary on gold has occurred recently so you knew a monumental attack could be coming. That changes nothing as Turd says on the overall picture. Do your own DD and use this board and its resources to help guide your longer term trades on the PM's. You are playing in a monumentally historic bear market that you will hopefully be able to tell your grandchildren about. Plan for their future by buying your physical. Setbacks in the paper trade by now SHOULD be expected. After all the EE has been at this for centuries. gl

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:04am

Thanks for the words of

Thanks for the words of wisdom Turd. After taking a beating on silver and my silver miners today, I too need some R&R. I did, however, order some physical, and it's on the way. 

Sweet Dreams!

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:05am

silver a bummer today, not yesterday

wednesday silver was down .7%--compared to around 3% for SPX.

It goes back and forth--I survived 2008 and by being in PM after a number of years of heart stopping volatility, I am miles ahead due to PM. Plus I have what I feel is a better quality portfolio and feel has double meaning cause I can truly feel my portfolio

Nonetheless, I do not like when it goes down. But I will take this volatility for the benefit of the bigger objective.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:08am

The oft misquoted...

It is "the LOVE of money that is A root of all kinds of evil" 1st Timothy 6:10 NIV. Not money itself, and not all evil, remember that important distinction.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:14am

Wait a minute...

Pseudonym "Turd"?? That's not your real name? Hey, if we can't laugh along the way, what's the point?!

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:22am

Turd a failure?

Turd, I was disappointed today as you were in the move of the PM's. No one can predict when people are going to freak out and sell everything. Turd we don't get on here because you are right all the time. We get on here because we believe in the same idea as you, and ideas never die.(that was gay but sounded like V). Anyway this is a good place for people who want to have a solid opinion to read with some bright ideas on the side. Don't quit making the calls because we all love it even when they happen to be off. It is interesting to see that after all these years of Americans stealing from foreigners thru inflation that yet again the final heave for the dollar and last limp along of life is caused by people yet again taking the other turd wrapped in a gift box as if it were worth anything. The day the dollars come home is the day we are Uberscrewed. That confidence can be shaken by one bald gleam from Bernankes butterball scalp. For those of you who can't afford an estate in the Casey Research part of Argentia, look me up in Colorado I will have stored food, a garden and some bullion to enjoy with you.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:24am

Turd don't beat yourself up!

I don't see TPTB as being all that smart with the manipulation of the markets. I've been happy with all that you have taught me and no one is perfect. If you subscribe to Christian theology the last perfect man got hung on across and you don't need that on your plate. I'm a physical buyer of very small size, about 5-10 oz. per month of silver. I got a bit of fuel and food stashed and learning new skills. I think we are in for a bit of a grind as the PTBs try to save their positions. The CDS is a killer and once it goes it will be a cascade effect and take out not only banks but whole countries sovereign debt.

dmunjal Planters
Sep 23, 2011 - 12:30am

Planters, the market dropped

Planters, the market dropped because the Fed thinks that the economy is "significantly" worse than everyone thought.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:32am

Gold correction - we've been here before!!!

The feeling sucks to watch gold prices take a hit... but take heart fellow Turds, we've seen this movie before (likes its Rocky I, II, III, IV). This chart says it all!

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:32am

Planters, many saw the sell

Planters, many saw the sell off coming, and wrote about it but it was not the predominant theme, because we all knew some form of QE had to arrive. The Fed has in fact been forecasting QE in many forms, eg. keeping rates low for several more years. That's what the market expected, but the market wants it in blatant form, instead Bernanke delivered it in a couched form, so the sell-off continues.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:35am

Turd, Thank-You.

I'm a daily reading of this blog but first time poster. I'm also a stacker of the phyzz.

I bought a tube of silvers Wednesday only to wake up a "loss" in fiat today. Based on Turd's analysis, I bought two more tubes of silver today. 

I've been nervous all day, but I just wanted to thank you Turd and this awesome community for the daily guidance. :)

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:38am

And... just to demonstrate

And... just to demonstrate how out of whack the Crimex paper prices are with physical silver, here's First Majestic's website (a silver miner which sells coins directly) showing selling silver at $40/oz .... when spot is at $36.26.

Sep 23, 2011 - 12:42am

Comet Elenin Next Week (9/26)

Just a heads up, an interesting article about Comet Elenin as it passes by the sun and through Earth's orbit in the coming days.

There are a lot of fear stories and negative connotations around this subject, in which I am not claiming to know anything or push this material on anyone (I just read things on the internet, and attempt to validate things for myself, and share with others). However, I just wanted to link the following article, as a heads up for anyone who wishes to have their thoughts on the sky. My philosophy on the subject is to be open minded, but not afraid, as this would be something out of our control, if it even were to have truth to it. Just something to be aware of in case it plays out, otherwise a lesson in not letting your imagination wander to far. Who really knows these days.

And instead of leaving comments here if you wish to have discussion, please join the discussion in the forum topic. This subject is off-topic, and has possibility to hijack a thread with debate. That is not the purpose of this post. Please be respectful of the flow of the thread.


Rest well Turdville, gnight.

Dexter Morgan
Sep 23, 2011 - 12:45am

Hey Turd, I'm with ya.  I

Hey Turd, I'm with ya. I bought 3 gold American Eagles today and I deliver pizzas. Those bastards down at the Fed don't scare me anymore. They can take more out of it and I don't care because I plan to buy a couple of ounces every month for the next year. That should clean out my TDAmeritrade account. We don't need their stinking paper. 

Suggestion to all: Stop measuring your gold in paper dollars. Measure it in real estate. In the Phoenix area, the same amount of gold that four years ago bought you one house will now buy 10 houses. So while gold is "only" up about 42% per year for the last four years measured in dollars, (1741-650 = 1091/650 = 1.67/4 years = 42%), house purchasing ability of gold has increased at least 900% /4 years= 225% annual interest. Either that or I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. One day I will buy a house with a few ounces and not have a mortgage going into retirement. I enjoy seeing it go up but really, how much are they hurting me on dips like this measured in real estate? It isn't even a mosquito bite. To hell with their paper. I price my gold in real estate.

Gold remains the best purchase of my life and I expect many more years of robust returns, plus good sleep at night. 

BTW Hank 3 is a MUST SEE. "It must have been those pills I took."

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