More From Carnac

304
Wed, Sep 21, 2011 - 2:08pm

I may look like a complete idiot in about 10 minutes but I wanted to get on the record before we hear from The Bernank and his minions.

The charts below look like gold is poised to surge higher. Note that the 2-hour has moved through the trendline again but, unlike yesterday, it has held the test back below the line. The lows are swinging higher, too. On the daily chart, note the circled area. The past several days have been dominated by volatility but very little net change in price. This often occurs in a market that is about to reverse course. Buyers get exhausted at tops and are met with increasingly-determined sellers until the bottom drops out. At bottoms, it's the opposite. The selling continues until it is exhausted and the buyers take over. This is where we look to be right now in gold.

There you go. More later. TF

2:50 EDT UPDATE:

​Let's call this a mildly stimulative move by The Fed. (Do I sound like LIESman?)

Use the current global panic as bidders for the short-end stuff you want to sell. This will soak up the supply that the Fed offers without moving short rates significantly higher. Take the $400B in proceeds (new found money for Fed to spend on U.S. government largesse), and support the bid on the long-end. Genius! It may even work for a while. The risk to The Fed is that global demand for short-term US debt dries up and you end up flattening, or even inverting, the yield curve. This would be a disastrous consequence of today's action.

To me, since the sale of $400B on the short end will be absorbed by a terrified global investment community, The Fed is simply repatriating dollars and using them to fund the next 90 days of U.S. government debt. A band-aid. That's all this is.

Much larger QE will definitely be coming as soon as early 2012.

Gold surged to 1818 but has since fallen back to 1788. Just goes to show you that Turd, his pen and his sharpie cannot be correct 100% of the time. There's still hope, however, that sanity will return. Let's see how the overnight Asian trade looks.

More this evening. TF

About the Author

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  304 Comments

TitanAe
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:09pm
Hagarth
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:11pm
madgstrader
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:12pm

hey Turd, Jim C gave you a

hey Turd, Jim C gave you a shout on his daily update vid:

Daily Market Insights -- Metals Futures

¤
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:12pm

TF laying it out there...

...and on the record. I agree completely.

Anyone have a vid of a crumbling dam bursting?

I'm sure the rocket launch vids are all ready

LongGoldLongSilver
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:15pm

Will Bernanke Bring the Whole Bag?

One thing's clear though: unless the FOMC brings interest rates up a gazillion basis points and suddenly starts selling its worthless assets and at the same time manages to find buyers of that worthless balance sheet, not much that comes out of Bernanke's mouth today should have a negative impact on the precious metals. At least not if one can look past the immediate action.

It's kind of expected to see gold getting smashed a bit during the London hours, since it is standard procedure right before the Fed announcements. If the crazy Keynesians just give the hedgies what is now anticipated - some lowering of the intermediate yields by swapping short-term debt for debt with a bit longer maturity (so called Operation Twist), the fear in the precious metals market should soon be evaporated. The market loves certainty. But if Santa Ben brings a whole bag of goodies, like slamming yields for deposits at the Fed, or why not starting to charge the banks and punish them for not lending the fiat? That would be like pouring rocket fuel in the gold tank. Nevertheless, central banks tend to do what's bad for currencies and good for gold, don't they?

https://www.economicfreefall.com/2011/09/waiting-for-santa.html

ericplatham
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:16pm

watching the charts...

it is making me dizzy

Tom L
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:16pm

Martin Armstrong

repost from last thread, b/c like Eric O, I have an uncanny sense to continue posting well past a thread's born-on date.

https://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Gold%2009-15-2011.pdf

Ta,

Dr G
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:17pm

T-13 mins.

T-13 mins. Either it goes green and my newer purchases are looking great or it goes red and my newer purchases are still shiny and fun to hold! Real money is where it's at!

LongGoldLongSilver
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:17pm
LongGoldLongSilverHagarth
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:19pm

Wrong month, lol.

Wrong month, lol.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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