More From Carnac

Wed, Sep 21, 2011 - 2:08pm

I may look like a complete idiot in about 10 minutes but I wanted to get on the record before we hear from The Bernank and his minions.

The charts below look like gold is poised to surge higher. Note that the 2-hour has moved through the trendline again but, unlike yesterday, it has held the test back below the line. The lows are swinging higher, too. On the daily chart, note the circled area. The past several days have been dominated by volatility but very little net change in price. This often occurs in a market that is about to reverse course. Buyers get exhausted at tops and are met with increasingly-determined sellers until the bottom drops out. At bottoms, it's the opposite. The selling continues until it is exhausted and the buyers take over. This is where we look to be right now in gold.

There you go. More later. TF


​Let's call this a mildly stimulative move by The Fed. (Do I sound like LIESman?)

Use the current global panic as bidders for the short-end stuff you want to sell. This will soak up the supply that the Fed offers without moving short rates significantly higher. Take the $400B in proceeds (new found money for Fed to spend on U.S. government largesse), and support the bid on the long-end. Genius! It may even work for a while. The risk to The Fed is that global demand for short-term US debt dries up and you end up flattening, or even inverting, the yield curve. This would be a disastrous consequence of today's action.

To me, since the sale of $400B on the short end will be absorbed by a terrified global investment community, The Fed is simply repatriating dollars and using them to fund the next 90 days of U.S. government debt. A band-aid. That's all this is.

Much larger QE will definitely be coming as soon as early 2012.

Gold surged to 1818 but has since fallen back to 1788. Just goes to show you that Turd, his pen and his sharpie cannot be correct 100% of the time. There's still hope, however, that sanity will return. Let's see how the overnight Asian trade looks.

More this evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 21, 2011 - 2:09pm



Sep 21, 2011 - 2:11pm
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:12pm

hey Turd, Jim C gave you a

hey Turd, Jim C gave you a shout on his daily update vid:

Daily Market Insights -- Metals Futures

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:12pm

TF laying it out there...

...and on the record. I agree completely.

Anyone have a vid of a crumbling dam bursting?

I'm sure the rocket launch vids are all ready

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:15pm

Will Bernanke Bring the Whole Bag?

One thing's clear though: unless the FOMC brings interest rates up a gazillion basis points and suddenly starts selling its worthless assets and at the same time manages to find buyers of that worthless balance sheet, not much that comes out of Bernanke's mouth today should have a negative impact on the precious metals. At least not if one can look past the immediate action.

It's kind of expected to see gold getting smashed a bit during the London hours, since it is standard procedure right before the Fed announcements. If the crazy Keynesians just give the hedgies what is now anticipated - some lowering of the intermediate yields by swapping short-term debt for debt with a bit longer maturity (so called Operation Twist), the fear in the precious metals market should soon be evaporated. The market loves certainty. But if Santa Ben brings a whole bag of goodies, like slamming yields for deposits at the Fed, or why not starting to charge the banks and punish them for not lending the fiat? That would be like pouring rocket fuel in the gold tank. Nevertheless, central banks tend to do what's bad for currencies and good for gold, don't they?

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:16pm

watching the charts...

it is making me dizzy

Tom L
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:16pm

Martin Armstrong

repost from last thread, b/c like Eric O, I have an uncanny sense to continue posting well past a thread's born-on date.


Dr G
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:17pm

T-13 mins.

T-13 mins. Either it goes green and my newer purchases are looking great or it goes red and my newer purchases are still shiny and fun to hold! Real money is where it's at!

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:17pm
LongGoldLongSilver Hagarth
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:19pm

Wrong month, lol.

Wrong month, lol.

Eric Original
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:19pm


I was picturing the ending from Frankenstein vs the Wolfman, but came across this instead.

This was real life, just about an hour from my home.

Like they say in "Repo Man", "some weird f*kn shit man."

Lake Delton Wisconsin Dam Break
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:20pm


Link please. Zerohedge one above is offline for me

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:21pm

Short Term Interest Notes Rising ...Interesting

Two-year note Popping---They might be expecting the Fed to be announcing "selling" short term + Buying Long term...Implication is Operation Twist

Eric Original
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:21pm

Gone to get groceries

There's not a damn thing that the Fed or the Bernank can say in the next few minutes that will make me buy anything or sell anything, so I think I'll go to the store and buy a gallon of milk instead.

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:23pm


is he speaking or done speaking at 2:15?

gold still vacillating around unchange

Dr G
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:23pm

No matter what Bernank does,

No matter what Bernank does, never forget...

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:24pm
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:24pm

zh offline

Zerohedge is offline for me also - high traffic maybe?

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:24pm
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:24pm

Silver's shooting

Silver's shooting UP!!!!!!!!!!!

Dr G
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm

Operation Twist was just

BREAKING: Operation Twist was just announced by Fed.

EDIT: I don't think the metals get much movement from this. This was baked into the cake already. Silver now dropping but still green. Gold has gone red now.

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm

Twist in Effect

Rates going down. Oil going down. Gold going up, slightly. Dow down big.

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm

oh no... here comes the

oh no... here comes the smackdown... BTFD!!!

argent rampant
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm


what did he say?

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm

I can't get a live feed....

I can't get a live feed.... anybody help me?

Sep 21, 2011 - 2:26pm
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:27pm

FOMC Decided No Interest Rate

FOMC Decided No Interest Rate Changes

400 Billion purchase of long term and sale of short term simultaneously

short term interest popping...10-year yiels dropping

dollar popping

metals dropping

dow dropping -76

three descenting votes!


Eric Original
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:28pm

Buying long, selling short.

Buying long, selling short. The "Twist" is now official policy.

Chubby Checker - The Twist
The Doc
Sep 21, 2011 - 2:28pm


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