Bullish Gold in Four Pictures

Tue, Sep 20, 2011 - 3:06pm

All four of the charts below paint a bullish picture but it appears that the next 24-48 hours hold the key. Hmmm. Isn't that interesting? What earth-shattering, market-moving news is possible over that time period?

Silver, not so much. Though I'm still extremely bullish long term, for now, silver looks to still be taking baby steps toward recovery.

Further affecting my enthusiasm for silver are the charts for copper and crude, both of which are failing to inspire much excitement or confidence.

That'll have to do for today. The Turd is going to be quite busy through the evening so I doubt I will update again before tomorrow morning. Hang in there. Get some rest as tomorrow promises to be a very interesting day. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 20, 2011 - 3:07pm



Sep 20, 2011 - 3:08pm

Thanks TF!


Sep 20, 2011 - 3:09pm

My two charts...

posted in the last thread. Two hour spot gold... and then the 1 minute spot gold with the bottom line shown. $1810 seems to be very important to all parties

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:10pm

My question

Is how have they been driving silver lower so strongly if the contracts have been decreasing? How do you make it waterfall if you aren't dumping thousands of sell contracts into the market. No margin hikes, no mass shorting...how are they making it go down?

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:15pm

And, in preparation for tomorrow,

I would strongly suggest that you read this:


$1T in new QE would probably help gold catch a bid.

Dr G
Sep 20, 2011 - 3:16pm

@austrian (from previous

@austrian (from previous thread),

I fully agree that silver will outperform gold. I'm hoping that it will. I'm holding much more silver than gold. It just seems so undervalued right now. When I think about it my mind starts to turn to mush. And then you have moments like now where gold is up $22+ and silver is up only 7 cents.

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:16pm


Big thumps and then cover.....

Dr G
Sep 20, 2011 - 3:23pm

@Turd, yeah, $1 trillion

@Turd, yeah, $1 trillion would probably do it, but if that is the case what will $400-500 billion do? I don't know that we will see $1T tomorrow (although the ZH article makes a great case for it). And I know that in the long run none of this matters. Gold is going up and so is silver. But it's fun to speculate. This is another form of sports for many of us.

On the bright side, many of us should be rolling in piles of freshly-made fiat at this time tomorrow. Thanks Bernank!

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:24pm

London Trader reveals .....

London Trader continues:

“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions.


silver squirrel
Sep 20, 2011 - 3:33pm

Let's Get Physical

Thanks for all the charts and tips Turd, just bought some phyz at 39.80, gotta luv the dips.

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:33pm

What the heck happened with miners today?

While the metals (well, ok silver) languished, the GDX was up 3.5% and GDXJ was up 2.5%. The HUI was up 20 points on the day. Makes me think the miners are finally breaking out, and could lead the metals on this run.

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:34pm


My sense is that the FED will come out with some BS designed to stimulate the stock market, which is what they are looking for. See Yahoo Finance for "Stocks Rally on Hopes..." Any rally there may drive PMs down for a day, but as we know that just presents buying opportunities. So let'r rip tomorrow...... Thoughts?

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:35pm


If they were covering same day to avoid a change in contracts the price would be coming right back up would it not? When you quickly cover a massive amount of shorts this would cause a very rapid escalation in price no?

So I would like someone to explain how these "raids" are possible to sustain and keep the price suppressed if outstanding contracts are not changing? Perhaps I just don't understand. I would expect to see a large increase in short positions on the COT report and we aren't seeing that. We keep seeing bullish numbers on the COT and yet they've punished silver $4/on in 2-3 weeks. So How?

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:35pm

Nothing new

under the sun...

'They' are not going to invent some new element or some new type of device for money. Trust me - the Illuminati love there precious metals. Nothing can trump gold&silver of its purpose. Nothing else exists that can challenge G&S.

Everything is just coming around full circle again...

Just some examples...

Gold&Silver is coming back more importantly then ever - just like 3,000 years ago and then some....

MMA - will eventually turn into Gladiators - just like 3,000 years ago...

Pharmaceuticals - will eventually turn back more into natural remedies/homeopathy - just like 3,000 years ago...

Oil - will hardly be used, if at all - just like 3,000 years ago...

I find it funny that the Egyptians and others were sitting on all this unused - untapped oil - and never needed it.



Nothing new under the sun


Sep 20, 2011 - 3:35pm

The next 24-48 hours

From azizonomics:

According to Zero Hedge:

Shrugging off Italy’s rating downgrade (somewhat expected but continued negative outlook), funding stress in Europe (Libor levitating and Swiss/French banks divergent), cuts in global growth expectations (IMF and World Bank), concerns over systemic risk contagion (ESRB and World Bank), and escalating rhetoric in Sino-US trade wars, US equities have managed to reach up to Friday’s highs as rumors of AAPL being added to the Dow seemed enough for hapless traders.

More significant than excitement over Apple — and the main reason that markets today are levitating, in spite of all the turmoil — is the hope that Bernanke will throw more policy tools at the American economy.

Will he?

Although I have been specific about the idea that QE3 is definitely coming I don’t foresee QE3 being initiated this week. Why?

Firstly, because I think Joe Biden promised Wen Jiabao that America would hold off QE3 in the short-term to preserve the value of Chinese holdings.

Bernanke will probably initiate a program to roll the Fed’s holdings onto the long-end of the spectrum of bonds: as 2-year bonds in the Fed’s portfolio reach maturity, the Fed will replace those with 10-year bonds, to reduce net interest rates.

More significantly, I expect Bernanke to announce that the Federal Reserve will announce that it will no longer pay interest on excess reserves. Banks have accumulated massive excess reserves since the 2008 crisis, when the Fed determined to pay interest on reserves not lent — ostensibly to increase flexibility in the banking system in case of further collapse:

In theory, unleashing these excess reserves into the economy would get capital to productive ventures without infuriating bondholders and retirees any further with more quantitative easing. But in practice a surge in lending might do the precise opposite — unleashing a tidal wave of inflation, further diminishing the purchasing power of dollars.

The potential loans possible on these reserves could be up to $16 trillion. The GDP is currently $14.99 trillion. Unless the GDP keeps pace with the money supply, these new loans would create the potential for substantial amounts of inflation.

Could this be the spark that triggers a runaway inflationary spiral? It could be. Not if China can help it — but, that doesn’t remove the risk.

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:36pm

So in TA, basically, if

So in TA, basically, if something begins to go up, it is considered bullish. If something is in a downtrend or sideways movement it's bearish.

Wow, way to go TA, you're predicting the future!

Or not.

But doesn't matter, after you were wrong you can always draw a new chart and predict the future again.

Anyway, always go by how successful the person is that gives the tip. I guess, although the average age seems to be rather on the high side, at the very max there are 5 people participating on this site that can call themselves millionaires.. including the operator of the site.

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:43pm


Copper and oil. They spoil it for silver. At least they delay the rise at the moment. I am curious if copper now gives the direction for tomorrow....

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:51pm
The Death Ceiling
Sep 20, 2011 - 3:52pm

A Word of Caution

Repost from previous thread.

Hey all, quite a day.

I have noticed a trend on these threads, increasingly people seem happy to impress others by talking about which coins they are buying and how many, some are even beginning to post pictures of their purchases.

One of my colleagues is a particularly accomplished hacker, it is apparently not difficult to find people's personal details if you know what you are doing. You are not as incognito as you think.

If I was looking to steal pms when the brown stuff hits the blade I guess I'd start looking for victims at sites like this.

Please fellow Turdites, stop telling the world what you've got.

@Shill. Fair enough. I am simply trying to remind people that the biggest security risk to their stacks is the knowledge that they exist. m

Sep 20, 2011 - 3:59pm

Re: A Word of Caution

One of the reasons many at Gold Is Money 2 have lost their "stashes" in boating accidents while transporting it to a safer locale. ;)

Speaking of reposts from prior threads, this Bill Still interview deserves one also IMHO.


Fried Eggs. You forgot: People will be living in caves and cooking squirrels over fires, just like 3000 years ago...

Sep 20, 2011 - 4:02pm

Heading out for a few

Heading out for a few errands needless to say I am nervous about tomorrows direction.

Good or bad it will be interesting Market wise.

Be well

Sep 20, 2011 - 4:03pm

'Dr Doom' Roubini calls on Greece to admit bankruptcy and leave

MSM is sending the signal...

'Like a broken marriage that requires a break-up, it is better to have rules that make separation less costly to both sides. Breaking up and divorcing is painful and costly, even when such rules exist. Make no mistake: an orderly euro exit will be hard. But watching the slow disorderly implosion of the Greek economy and society will be much worse.'


Sep 20, 2011 - 4:04pm

@Death Ceiling & our PM cache

I find this to be an interesting


How do we Turdites - spread the word about PMs, without ummm, 'spreading the word about OUR PMs'


Sep 20, 2011 - 4:05pm

A Long Time Ago...In a Galaxy Far, Far Away...

If You Look Closely, You'll See a Young Ben Bernank on a Train Ride With a More Youthful Paul Volker. This is How They Developed the Idea For Operation Twist.

Borrow From Ben To Pay Paul!

Cracker Jack Commercial (1965)
Sep 20, 2011 - 4:12pm

Come on Silver!

Too bad that Silver isn't pushing up like gold today. I bet it catches up tonight though like usual. Thanks again for the insight TF.



~Handmade Quality Bullion~

The Death Ceiling
Sep 20, 2011 - 4:13pm


Very easily. I give my thoughts to the community without having to divulge my own position.

Just offering some advice, no need to attack me.

Sep 20, 2011 - 4:15pm

I'm In !!

I just got in a position @ 39.90 I'm not a big gun as i can only do spread betting so I'm sorry for not contributing to a up tic but i will but phys with any profits i make so heres to helicopter ben to give us some good news for PM's tomoz. As a side note i don't understand why people slate the Turd when he gets it slightly wrong. If people are rich enough to lose a lot of money then surely they should be smart enough to DYODD so ease off a bit please peeps as Turd puts a LOT of time and effort into helping people and preparing for what is becoming even more apparently so as each day goes by!! Keep up the good work Turd !!

Sep 20, 2011 - 4:22pm

Some Kind of Breaking News On Greece Was Flashed On CNBS

I Think It Was A "Breaking News Item Saying The Greek Officials Will Return on Oct 4th For Further Discussions ...Seems Like Nothing Was Resolved yet.

NOW...New Breaking News on CNBS..."GOOD PROGRESS" was made on the conference call

Troica will be back into discussions next week. I guess they'll be okay After all!


Everything's Fixed---Move Along!

Sep 20, 2011 - 4:23pm

Now just waiting

... for tomorrow. I hope to see a good trend up again for PMs :)

Sep 20, 2011 - 4:23pm

Fed Ponders Jobs, Inflation Targets

"Fed officials are likely to consider other steps they might take to boost the ailing economy in the short-run when they meet Tuesday and Wednesday, including altering the composition of the Fed's portfolio of securities so that it holds more long-term debt. The idea would be to push down long-term interest rates to stimulate more investment and spending. They also could try to encourage lending by cutting the 0.25% interest rate currently paid to private banks when they park money at the central bank"



Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by Trail Trekker, 45 min 25 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 45 min 47 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 29 min ago
by Marcus, 3 hours 15 sec ago