The Knife Catcher
At the risk of making an even bigger fool of myself, Carnac wishes to double down.
Our friend, Trader Dan has posted some terrific insights today. I suggest you go there:
From that commentary, I've lifted this very important update to his Continuous Commodity Index chart:
As discussed last week, please take a moment and count the duration (in days) from the four peaks to the four bottoms. OK, I'll do it for you: seven, fourteen, twelve and ten. By my count, we just completed day thirteen of decline #5. Call me crazy but I think we are near the bottom of this latest cycle down. Furthermore, since we made a higher "high" with the last peak, I would not expect a lower low on this bottom. If I'm going to be right (this time), the CCI would bottom soon near the lows of the bottom back in late June, between 620 and 625.
A bottom in the CCI would likely coincide with a top and reversal in ole Pigatha. Might we see one? You be the judge:
IF we are going to see an end to this latest corrective/consolidative period in PM price, the reversals will make themselves evident on the short-term charts. First, silver will need to get back above 40 and then go on and make a run at the main, down-sloping line near 41.50.
Gold has a similar look. It needs to first rebound past 1790 before it can go tackle the main line near 1810.
Soon, this will happen. I'm just not entirely sure that it will happen tomorrow. As mentioned this morning, there's still a reasonably high likelihood that gold could drop toward 1740-50 before bottoming. Another $30 drop in gold would probably take silver down toward a projected bottom near 38-38.50.
So, for today, let's leave it here:
1) Recent history suggests that the CCI is almost done with this latest corrective phase.
2) The POSX looks like it may attempt to double-top near 77.75.
3) Gold either double-bottoms right here or has one last spike down to near 1740-50.
4) Silver consolidates here or reaches about one more dollar down before reversing.
That's all for now. The Turd wants to go watch his G-men on MNF. More tomorrow. TF out.
p.s. Here's a snippet of the original "Carnac" for those too young to remember:
9:25 am EDT UPDATE:
Frankly, I have nothing new to report. I'm just looking for an excuse to post the image below. Apparently, this guy has sent a bag of gold-plated rocks to Cash4Gold three times. Equally apparent is their frustration in dealing with him. (I'm still laughing out loud at this one!)
10:30 am EDT UPDATE:
OK, an actual update this time. Gold has caught a serious bid this morning. Moving through and maintaining its footing above the primary, short-term trendline near 1810 is significant. Later, if we can skip away and make a move toward 1830, we can begin to put this corrective phase behind us.