The Knife Catcher

Mon, Sep 19, 2011 - 9:19pm

At the risk of making an even bigger fool of myself, Carnac wishes to double down.

Our friend, Trader Dan has posted some terrific insights today. I suggest you go there:

From that commentary, I've lifted this very important update to his Continuous Commodity Index chart:

As discussed last week, please take a moment and count the duration (in days) from the four peaks to the four bottoms. OK, I'll do it for you: seven, fourteen, twelve and ten. By my count, we just completed day thirteen of decline #5. Call me crazy but I think we are near the bottom of this latest cycle down. Furthermore, since we made a higher "high" with the last peak, I would not expect a lower low on this bottom. If I'm going to be right (this time), the CCI would bottom soon near the lows of the bottom back in late June, between 620 and 625.

A bottom in the CCI would likely coincide with a top and reversal in ole Pigatha. Might we see one? You be the judge:

IF we are going to see an end to this latest corrective/consolidative period in PM price, the reversals will make themselves evident on the short-term charts. First, silver will need to get back above 40 and then go on and make a run at the main, down-sloping line near 41.50.

Gold has a similar look. It needs to first rebound past 1790 before it can go tackle the main line near 1810.

Soon, this will happen. I'm just not entirely sure that it will happen tomorrow. As mentioned this morning, there's still a reasonably high likelihood that gold could drop toward 1740-50 before bottoming. Another $30 drop in gold would probably take silver down toward a projected bottom near 38-38.50.

So, for today, let's leave it here:

1) Recent history suggests that the CCI is almost done with this latest corrective phase.

2) The POSX looks like it may attempt to double-top near 77.75.

3) Gold either double-bottoms right here or has one last spike down to near 1740-50.

4) Silver consolidates here or reaches about one more dollar down before reversing.

That's all for now. The Turd wants to go watch his G-men on MNF. More tomorrow. TF out.

p.s. Here's a snippet of the original "Carnac" for those too young to remember:

Video unavailable

9:25 am EDT UPDATE:

Frankly, I have nothing new to report. I'm just looking for an excuse to post the image below. Apparently, this guy has sent a bag of gold-plated rocks to Cash4Gold three times. Equally apparent is their frustration in dealing with him. (I'm still laughing out loud at this one!)

10:30 am EDT UPDATE:

OK, an actual update this time. Gold has caught a serious bid this morning. Moving through and maintaining its footing above the primary, short-term trendline near 1810 is significant. Later, if we can skip away and make a move toward 1830, we can begin to put this corrective phase behind us.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 19, 2011 - 9:23pm

Amazing Carnac

Video unavailable

and, oh yeah... first!

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:29pm

I'll be here for you

to help you up off your newly flattened ass.

I hope I'm wrong, but "they" want it to go down, and it will

dunno about gold, but with all the talk about silver and $36.00, I suspect that is the intended destination.

Don't hate me because I'm beautiful.

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:37pm

Thanks for the update

not seen copper at this price all summer...

looks like not just Au/Ag are off... huh

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:37pm

if I was going to do anything

I'd root for JPM to get up off the mat and make a run to $36.00

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:43pm

Same Old Game

Isn't this take down the same old game of making every investment in the world a piece of crap, while it depresses the masses so that when they send funny money under the table to the IMF to pay for the debts of Europe and Greece at the moment, on the way to destroying the dollar, and covering up the thefts of Wall Street, so the next bogus president can be elected, and all our future tax money moved off shore, to extend all this for a few more months while the food supply is depleted for the serfs and then when it all hits the fan no one will care who the next dictator of the US is since they will be living in Paraguay. Or did I miss something.

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:44pm

Giants fan??

I need another catch for Nicks to win FF this week.

Turdle GG
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:54pm


For me, the main question for now is: has the pre-FOMC beat-down run its course or not?

I'm guessing it has, because they can't keep throwing paper shorts at this forever, and we're at a price where even a $50 to $100 rally on news of more money printing will not take us to new highs on gold.

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:54pm

Thanks Big T

@Bobby - hope your wrong but I know exactly what you mean.

@Gramp - thanks for the 'new thread' post man.

Managed to bottom tick todays action with a small buy but still got pissed about it breaking 4o. I hope Silverboy went quickly and painlessly

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:57pm


If we ponder all the problems of the world all day, every day, we will start jumping out of the ten story windows and pushing the banksters out of the front of the line. We could have bought a pile of gold coins in the $1600's just a few weeks ago and many herein did. Some bought monster boxes of silver not long ago at $33. The price of gas has fallen from over $4. I tanked up on gas in Idaho yesterday at $3.59 and it is much less in other states.

World events can change things in a flash. Most would choose gold at $800 and silver at $20 if it would bring full employment, housing back to 2006 prices, a program to bring peace and wisdom to our national leaders and a nation which could again be a hope for the nations of the world. IT IS TOO LATE!!!!!

Some good "Healthy Positions" have been given by many on this site. Let the P.M.'s rise and fall: The canned hams are stacked by some, the gardens are growing, the peaches and apples are in the boxes, the grandkids are playing soccer and basketball, and the middle class has started to downsize everything. Let's not allow our hearts to be troubled, Peace.

aurum argentum
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:57pm


"May a holy man squat in your fruit loops".

I am not a fan of being older but I am so happy I watched Johnny every night... Kids have no idea the humor of that time period.

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:59pm

second, standing by for with

second, standing by with cash in hand!

Sep 19, 2011 - 9:59pm

Turd, Grains are catching a


Grains are catching a strong bid tonight !

Turdle GG
Sep 19, 2011 - 10:00pm

Bankers continue covering gold and silver shorts

From Harvey: The banking participation report shows massive gold and silver short covering as the bankers fear a global meltdown:

Below is the link to the Bank Participation Report for August 2, 2011.
Net short: 140,958 contracts.

Below is the link to the Bank Participation Report for September 6,
Net short position 122,640

For the period from August 2 to September 6, gold rose $215/oz and the banks reduced their net short position by 18,318 contracts. The bankers are nervous as they see a runaway gold freight train. They are covering as fast as they can.

​[Note that for silver the short position was reduced from 120,385 to 113,449]

Sep 19, 2011 - 10:05pm

I miss this guy.... was a small lad but still remember...

I think we can expect further corrections and the Fed speech will not bring the goodies expected. Expect the un-expected for the next few days.

I am holding and the truck is waiting to roll up and fill up.... feeling is we are not done just yet!


Sep 19, 2011 - 10:07pm

RE: "Karnac"

Aurum, I am with you on that. I was a youngster during "Carnac's Reign" and had to watch it because my dad loved the show. And some of it was even funny to my young ears, not quite getting the humor. Now I look fondly on those times when life to a child was simpler. Oh well, life moves on and the only constant is change.

Sep 19, 2011 - 10:10pm

Writing the Administration

Writing the Administration does not work. Writing Regulatory Agencies does not work. Writing Congress does not work. Requesting action from state AGs does not work. No bankers indicted. No bankers in jail. Massive derivatives out there with no regulation. Zombie banks controlling the Congress, Administration, Courts, Regulators. Manipulated markets world wide. Controlled media. The system is broke.

Question: How do we "really" deal with this. Play their game every day. Who isn't owned that can make a difference. There has to be people in the regulatory agencies that want to do the right thing or Congress or in State government. Why do they all roll over? How do you own the military who does not want to go to war since they pay the biggest price?

Is the internet the only answer and when do they cripple it?

Or does gold go up and we can be happy again?

Sep 19, 2011 - 10:20pm


Because tomorrow is the 20th and so on and so on. There is no calendar for a event of that type. The U.S. only needs to perceive the threat. Check out this speech from John Brennan.

Plus, who's really going to stop us? That's the reality of what the U.S. is and has been and if you step back and look at the scope of what the U.S. military is capable of and how far it's range is, then it's possible another "entanglement" will take place soon. I'm not banging a war drum but were not going to be beat by the countries that we are picking off one by one. It's by design imo.

The smartest thing the U.S could do is neutralize Syria and in turn weaken and isolate Iran even further. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen at some point. We've totally disrupted N. Africa and MENA. That was not spontaneous and all lovey dovey Egyptian democracy stuff that took place. I'm pretty sure we helped the situation along despite all the weak rhetoric that Obama kind of mouthed during that situation. The U.S. has a stated policy. When they state policy like this it kind of telegraphs there intentions shortly imo.

U.S. Official Defends Unilateral Pursuit Of Alleged Terrorists Abroad By Adam Levine and Jennifer Rizzo CNN

POSTED: 5:15 pm MDT September 16, 2011

AAAText Size

UPDATED: 9:43 pm MDT September 17, 2011

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (CNN) -- The United States reserves the right to pursue terrorists unilaterally in other countries, White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan said Friday night in a speech at Harvard Law School.

"The United States does not view our authority to use military force against al Qaeda as being restricted solely to 'hot' battlefields like Afghanistan, we reserve the right to take unilateral action if or when other governments are unwilling or unable to take the necessary actions themselves," Brennan told a conference on "Law, Security & Liberty After 9/11: Looking to the Future."

Al Qaeda’s leadership has been decimated, Brennan said, thanks not to the wars but to “unyielding pressure” from U.S. operations to kill the group's leaders one by one in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.

The more acute threats to the U.S. these days come from Al Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and perhaps Somalia, U.S. officials have said, and no one is contemplating sending large numbers of American troops to those countries.

Instead, the U.S. will pursue a war in the shadows, one relying heavily on missile strikes from unmanned aerial drones, raids by elite special operations troops, and quiet training of local forces to pursue terrorists.

Brennan said the recently announced troop reduction in Afghanistan would have no impact on U.S. counter-terrorism strategy in that country and Pakistan, where, he said, the U.S. has been delivering “precise and overwhelming force” against militants...

Sep 19, 2011 - 10:28pm


Tough isn't it lakedweller? To have the glasses to be able to "see". I envy my new little 9 month old little girl and find so much joy through her and her innocence. It saddens me terribly to think what life will be like in just a few years let alone 15 or 20 should this current path continue to be blazed. I dont know what the solution is but I often reflect on the quote "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants" Thomas Jefferson


Sep 19, 2011 - 10:29pm
Sep 19, 2011 - 10:30pm
lakedweller2 backseatdriver
Sep 19, 2011 - 10:40pm

Unanswered Questions

I too am concerned about the future of my children who must pay the price for the greed of my generation. I am concerned for myself for the same reasons. It was not the world I was taught in college. It was not the world I understood to exist while I served in the military. It was not the world I thought I was dedicated to when my job required that I support the constitution through the legal system. I have been devastated to learn that I acted as a fool at the state level, when the federal level was stealing everything I held sacred. I thought all this was behind us in the 70s. What I didn't know was that the real system was tweaking their corruption to take it all. We are fools who hold trust in the goodness of man.

Sep 19, 2011 - 10:40pm

The PowerPoint That Rocked

The PowerPoint That Rocked the Pentagon

The LaRouchie defector who's advising the defense establishment on Saudi Arabia.

By Jack ShaferPosted Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2002, at 7:49 PM ET

Diplomatic china rattled in Washington and cracked in Riyadh yesterday when the Washington Post published a story about a briefing given to a Pentagon advisory group last month. The briefing declared Saudi Arabia an enemy of the United States and advocated that the United States invade the country, seize its oil fields, and confiscate its financial assets unless the Saudis stop supporting the anti-Western terror network....

Sep 19, 2011 - 10:43pm

Dear Turdville and the Turd

A few years ago I knew something was wrong. I could just feel it so I began to research and look around at what was happening. I found Glenn Beck- had never listened to him before- and he caused me to start searching deeper. No matter what people can say about him he caused people to start opening their eyes and ears. From the point I had my eyes and ears opened, I moved my hubbies 401K to the sidelines and saved a good portion from the 2008-2009 insanity. I didn't save all of it but I didn't lose what most did. I was a mom in the daytime and at night I was searching for truth. SO I began storing food, a little here a little there. My children laughed at me. I used to threaten them with the Little Red hen story... didn't work, they still laugh. I managed to get my parents to the sidelines while fighting with their broker- they are happy they got out. My brother and sister began storing food. We all grew a garden (my siblings and I for the first time). My parents live on a farm so they always had.

I began to dig deeper. I believe the Lord led me to sites like Zerohedge and Drudge and others... no I had never read or even heard about those sites before a year or so ago. Then one night I read a comment from off Zerohedge about Turd's blog and whoever it was was kind enough to provide a link and I clicked on it. I clicked and I read and I read some more. And I found Eric and Atlee and Pailin and TMosely and Ginger and Afrum and OldNavy and so many others and I learned. Some along the way took the extra time to teach and I paid attention- I still do.

I never thought about stacking, I never knew a year ago what a Put or a Call was. Didn't know about margins or options. I never heard about SLW or AUQ or the names Sprott or Norcini or Peter Schiff or Jim Sinclair. I didn't know about angels or even what a silver eagle was. I had never held a gold coin in my hand or a silver coin for that matter.

A year has passed. I know what silver and gold feel like in my hand because I have some. I know what calls and puts are (thank you Vet) because I trade them. I know what SLW and AUQ are because I own some. I know who Jim Sinclair and Norcini are because I read them. We ate the first fruits of our garden this summer because we grew one.

The point is I came here and you fed me. You did not give me the fish but you taught me to fish. You opened my eyes that I could see clearly. You opened my understanding a little more and caused me to think. When I have been saddened by the things around me, you have made me laugh. I came in as a crawling baby and now I am beginning to walk.

For that I THANK YOU!


Sep 19, 2011 - 10:47pm

@ ldweLLer

yep. you said it bro. aLL those are gOOd questions + a few 1,ooo more. How is it that so many just bend over and take it? when you try and give them an alternative you are the teRRorist. gRRRRRRRRR

PM's go up we at least have that to rest our slEEpy heads on. PM's down and everything is wrong with the world. Today i did not buy any metal. the reason is that i am starting to run low on the dry powder. being 1oo% in anything is scary, even if it is the safest aSSet claSS in the world and i have bought in this price, 39.5-40.5 4 or five times...the last 30 days we have had many oPPortunities to BTFD. i think Ag under 40 is going to lOOk siLLy 6-12-18, but the chance exists that we do not get anything from The Bernake and the markets tank, PM's tank and the POSX goes to the moon. shaking my head and pouring a drink...

Sep 19, 2011 - 11:08pm


Trust in a hand-shake and a look in the eye. Goodness has not been driven from all of us, brother.


Sep 19, 2011 - 11:12pm

The Golden Jackass (Bernanke) is still crapping coins - - - -

No slackin - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Just keep stackin !!!

lakedweller2 UncleFester
Sep 19, 2011 - 11:19pm

Trust In A Handshake

Two weeks ago I needed a repair on my house. We called a trusted realtor and asked her who she would recommend. She gave us a name. He looked at the repair and quoted a ballpark figure, not knowing what was behind the damage. We did not ask for a contract.

He called and said he was prepared to fix the damage and wanted to know if it was a good day. We said come on and do it. He showed up with a couple of his crew about an hour later. They fixed the problem in a couple of hours. Charged about 17% less than estimated and drove away. Did not even require a handshake.

That used to be America.

Sep 19, 2011 - 11:21pm


Apologies if this has been posted before, but excellent review of Verner Von Braun and the New World Order plans


cpnscarlet survivalwstyle
Sep 19, 2011 - 11:22pm

@sws, if Bernanke says

@sws, if Bernanke says nothing and PMs tank, and POSX goes to the moon, I guess that means that everything's just fine and all our problems are over. And of course they're not. I know I will stomp my feet and scream at the charts when that happens, but then I'll remember that just because BB said nothing, nothing has changed. There is still debt as deep as the ocean out there, printing presses with clandestine hands at the switch, and a feet-and-clay batch of morons called the European Union still trying to figure out how to hold the mess together. It's just a matter of time.

H - original
Sep 19, 2011 - 11:23pm


So perfectly said!


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