Mon, Sep 19, 2011 - 11:24am

The Turd awoke this morning to the disturbingly familiar LBMA/Comex beatdown pattern we've seen so frequently in the past. This stuff is sure getting old but, unwittingly, it appears that The Cartel is about to hand us an extremely attractive opportunity.

First, take a look at this 5-minute chart. It's a classic, coordinated attack pattern. Word leaks on the LBMA that The Cartel is going to raid the metals today. Down spikes ensue as those with foreknowledge prepare for the event. The Comex opens and BOOM!

If I were you, I would print this chart and tape it above my computer. In the future whenever you see this pattern, you'll know what's coming.

OK, onto the expected buying opportunity. It's not least I don't think so...but it is coming very soon. My problem is that I have very little cash. I foolishly plunged last week when I thought we'd seen a bottom at 1800. Oops. I'm also long a bunch of Nov11 soybean calls that look like they have the potential to generate some continued losses to pair up versus all of my gains from the PMs earlier this year. Oh well, whaddayagonnado?

First, let's look at gold. It could stop and reverse right near last week's lows. It could. I don't think it will, however. Let's put the likelihood of a turn near 1770-80 at 25%. More likely is a drop all the way toward the trendline from August 8. What is the significance of that date, you ask? It is the low from the gap higher opening after the U.S debt downgrade. See the charts below. At any rate, I think it's 75% likely that gold falls all the way 1740 or so. At that point, if I had any cash, I'd be all over it. Unfortunately, I don't so I'm reduced to being a very interested spectator in this one.

Silver has fallen in line and looks roughly the same. Recall last week I mentioned that crude looked subject to a drop back to 82-85 and, if that happened, it would surely take a toll on silver. Well, nuts, that seems to be playing out. IF gold drops toward 1740, silver will have to deal with continued selling pressure. However, it now has a chart that is similar to gold. It should have substantial support near $38 or so. You can plainly see it on the longer term charts below.

Again, please understand that the days of this crappy, LBMA/Comex paper metal monopoly are numbered. "The futures 'tail' will only wag the spot 'dog'" for a little while longer. Be patient and have faith. Use this weakness against them. Buy physical and take delivery. It is truly your only protection against the madness ahead. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 19, 2011 - 12:53pm

Sorry, I'm glad

Don't get mad! Get the keys and hop in the car and drive down to the coin shop or bullion dealer and grab a big fat chuck of your favorite metal! PM owners never loose in this game. Metals go up, so does your stockpile value. Metals go down, you get a sweet sale and go add to your stack. Gota go! (/grabs jacket and keys)


~Handmade Quality Bullion~

Sep 19, 2011 - 12:54pm

Obama today

spoke like the professor that he was.

Also like he had to fill a time slot--went on way too long.

but key is all he does is repeat himself which all it is then is a campaign speech as he garners votes from the class that will benefit from him--reminds me a bit of high school prom king and queen elections. Popularity over substance.

The fairness issue as we all know is nothing more than his perception of the way it should be.

Now--if he got rid of Immelt because of the tax issue and sending jobs overseas, then Obama would be more of a man of action. Sans always referring to his buddy Buffett , a guy who talks his book. I bet you that under tax reform insurance companies maintain their tax breaks and tax deferred annuity products.

And if Buffett is so for the inequality of tax rates on cap gains he could sell his crap and just report it at ordinary income rates and then he could pay tax rates more than his secretary (which begs the question of how much does he pay his secretary?).

The other "fair" thing the tax code could do is allow one to use as much tax loss carryforward as one would want vs taking no more than 3k a year, and then on house sales-where profits are taxable over a certain amount, allow losses to be deductible.

So the tax code is unfair in many ways including saying nearly 50% of public does not have to pay taxes--everybody should be participating one way or another in the payment of the proper amount of taxes. If you have income and use the services and get benefits you should pay INCOME taxes (social sec is paid in for alleged benefits which are also skewed to the lower income (not even middle income) as benefits are given out.

I kind of like the extension of unemployment benefits--we should extend it further so the unemployed can then list their careers as been career unemployed. Or professionally unemployed.

Just being ticked off sarcastic in my rambling-thanks for allowing me. Lets spend more on Solyndra type companies and raise the fair tax.

I have a feeling that gold is going to rocket Wednesday at 2:15 eastern time.

Sep 19, 2011 - 12:58pm

benrobert13,  I hold your

benrobert13, I hold your opinions in high regard, because of the breadth and depth of your postings. But as you've noted recently, there are times when I disagree. When you say "there are those who are completely independent", I don't believe that such people exist. Even if these nomadic tribes do not rely on modern paraphernalia and fiat currency, the delicate ecological balance of this globe is such that it is very much threatened, thereby endangering all life on earth ultimately. Just a small thought, take it for what's it's worth.

Sep 19, 2011 - 12:59pm


I always enjoy what you have to say in your posts.

"With such massive uncertainty, we do know one thing. If we are to have any chance at all, we must “stack and pack” like there is no tomorrow, because the odds are great that this is precisely our future. Are you prepared??"

"We learn from history that we learn nothing from history" - George Bernard Shaw

This is perhaps (hopefully) exclusive of those of us here at Turd's and others with the same mindset? Time will tell.

Sep 19, 2011 - 1:02pm

The greatest evil on planet earth

I don’t think we sometimes really fully comprehend the magnitude of the evil of central banking and the most evil tool ever created by them, fiat money, for exerting absolute total control over every human being on the planet. The fiat fraud is so vast, so powerful, so invasive, so pervasive, so ubiquitous that it touches the most intimate aspects of every human life on the planet. There is only one person or peoples that escapes this monstrosity. They are those who are completely independent, in every way, of the known “so called” civilized world. There are, I think just a few nomadic tribes in the Amazon who qualify, and a few individuals who can survive in the remote wilderness areas and never even need to go to a nearby town for any kind of supplies from the outside world. Who do not need money of any kind or form for survival.

There can be no social, political, or economic problem, malady, or injustice that can be fixed, repaired, or solved until this “fiat fraud”, affecting the whole world, is eliminated. If the people of this planet had any idea, or fully comprehended the totality this evil, there would be an instant complete repudiation of all the instruments of finance and trade created by these criminal monsters. No one would carry any kind of savings, credit cards, loans, bonds, or paper assets in their accounts. There would be a political re-alignment that would rock the world and shake it to its core. Riots in the streets and revolution unlike the world has seen in its entire history. The illusion that has swept the globe in the last century, is vastly greater than all those preceding it by a huge margin. Never before in human history as the entire globe been covered in worthless fiat money like today. Uncharted waters, to say the least, along with uncharted consequences as well, the scope of which is just as unknown.

How can you prepare for something this cataclysmic? No one really knows. You can only take the worst isolated case in history and extrapolate that on a global scale. With such massive uncertainty, we do know one thing. If we are to have any chance at all, we must “stack and pack” like there is no tomorrow, because the odds are great that this is precisely our future. Are you prepared??

Sep 19, 2011 - 1:12pm

When will QE3 be leaked?

It seems that gold and silver will start moving on the leaked QE3 news at the latest by tomorrow morning, wouldn't you think? So if it starts going up by then you better hurry and get on board. And if it doesn't then maybe we're not getting the announcement we think?

Sep 19, 2011 - 1:12pm

Find YOUR bank's overall health here...

You can search alphabetically, or for your particular institution.

Lots of great info on every institution. I hope folks will take a look.

Consolidation in my little town has gotten ridiculous. Just 3 years ago, more than a dozen local chains and independents existed. Only a few remain.

Wells took over Wachovia, JPM expanded by a handful, RBC swallowed up a local chain, TD and National City grabbed up a couple more, PNC moved in too and just purchased all of the RBC's regional branches (after only 2 years of existence) recently (transition to be final March, 2012), and Seacoast took over a few more.

It's been said many times before, but bears repeating...

We can do our small part by removing the funding from many of these operations.

A consolidated effort to re-allocate resources into our locals could benefit our economies, and IMHO is the honorable thing to do. Admittedly this is easier said than done, as many of us have credit cards, car loans, mortgages, and varied investments to consider. The current general health of our locals is another consideration (hence, the above link) However, re-allocating as much of your liquidity could be an effective measure. Taking away 10,50, or 100 to 1 leverage based on deposits may seem miniscule, but when multiplied by the masses becomes relevant.

Large banking institutions have zero interest in providing liquidity to, or insuring the survival of our locals. To the contrary, obviously. We give them the ammo to destroy our communities and our neighbors' livelihoods.

A relative of mine oversees a small chain of institutions in the Midwest, and happily has escaped most of the mayhem by being a responsible lender and investor. They, in fact, garner a 5 star rating from the Bankrate Index. The only knock on them was that their Non Interest Income (customer fees and the like) was low. So, lack of greed.

Banks have been on the offensive, grabbing up everything they can, adding to their might. We too can do our part by implementing strategies, and while participating in their demise we can benefit ourselves, our neighbors, and our loved ones. BAC's 2 branches will soon disappear from my little town. A small victory, as I severed ties.

Make an attempt to get "as local as possible" in all of your financial considerations.

Yes, I know I'm preaching to the choir, but many visit here for the first time every day.

Please consider this modest and sincere attempt from a simple man to add value here.

We can defeat these criminals. Is there any doubt many of them are running scared?

Maybe a forum for discussion and ideas? Peace to all.

Sep 19, 2011 - 1:16pm

Let's wake up everyone! We

Let's wake up everyone! We have a potentially very, VERY serious situation coming. And no it's not the end game, not even close. Sorry turd, I think you are at least 4 years too early. It's only the eye of the storm.

Greece is done, finished! UK wants out NOW! Portugual, Italy and Spain will be part of this domino effect. The Euro is toast sooner or later. Other world economies are beginning to stagger as well including Japan, France, countries in S. America. I just heard on NPR radio there are beginning to be bank runs in Europe. This is not good.

Money is constrained, there is absolutely no growth, no exchange or velocity of fiat currency despite inflation. We have a 1929 scenario on our hands AND prices will fall. So in response to Turd's call for make preparation, that preparation is not buy SVM, is not buy more miners, IT"S HAVE A STASH OF DRY POWDER READY FOR RECORD STEEP DISCOUNTS. Hasn't anybody been listening to King World News, Rick Rule, Mark Faber and a long list of people saying have DRY POWDER. This could be the depression that Casey has been talking about. The short term technicals will be trumped by the macro global economics. If you exhaust your funds before the sale, you will have nothing to buy and you'll have to sit through a 2008 or much worse event WAITING for what you have to return and not being able to buy anything.

Those who are patient and not trying to eek out small profits on every small up trend, will rake in huge profits. This is going to wash out all the greed in the markets and those who have been prudent waiting for a sale will prevail. Remember what Rick Rule said, PEOPLE WENT BROKE in the last metals bull market. If you have some cash buy a little physical gold and silver on the dips but don't exhaust your funds. It could go lower.

Lastly, have food and other things in your house. Turd get some maco people as guests. The raging bull has not shown it's face yet but everybody is acting like it has. Do your research and WAIT. This is a market for gamblers, not traders and those with sound judgement. Sure you may win some but people are going to get hurt with all the steriods that flow on this forum. Stay cool and you'll prevail. It's a 10k race, blow your shit in the first couple of kilometers, you'll have nothing left. If you have a chance to take some profit in the next week do so. It would be a shame to see so many smart traders loose their shirt.

Sep 19, 2011 - 1:20pm

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