Shakeout

229
Mon, Sep 19, 2011 - 11:24am

The Turd awoke this morning to the disturbingly familiar LBMA/Comex beatdown pattern we've seen so frequently in the past. This stuff is sure getting old but, unwittingly, it appears that The Cartel is about to hand us an extremely attractive opportunity.

First, take a look at this 5-minute chart. It's a classic, coordinated attack pattern. Word leaks on the LBMA that The Cartel is going to raid the metals today. Down spikes ensue as those with foreknowledge prepare for the event. The Comex opens and BOOM!

If I were you, I would print this chart and tape it above my computer. In the future whenever you see this pattern, you'll know what's coming.

OK, onto the expected buying opportunity. It's not today...at least I don't think so...but it is coming very soon. My problem is that I have very little cash. I foolishly plunged last week when I thought we'd seen a bottom at 1800. Oops. I'm also long a bunch of Nov11 soybean calls that look like they have the potential to generate some continued losses to pair up versus all of my gains from the PMs earlier this year. Oh well, whaddayagonnado?

First, let's look at gold. It could stop and reverse right near last week's lows. It could. I don't think it will, however. Let's put the likelihood of a turn near 1770-80 at 25%. More likely is a drop all the way toward the trendline from August 8. What is the significance of that date, you ask? It is the low from the gap higher opening after the U.S debt downgrade. See the charts below. At any rate, I think it's 75% likely that gold falls all the way 1740 or so. At that point, if I had any cash, I'd be all over it. Unfortunately, I don't so I'm reduced to being a very interested spectator in this one.

Silver has fallen in line and looks roughly the same. Recall last week I mentioned that crude looked subject to a drop back to 82-85 and, if that happened, it would surely take a toll on silver. Well, nuts, that seems to be playing out. IF gold drops toward 1740, silver will have to deal with continued selling pressure. However, it now has a chart that is similar to gold. It should have substantial support near $38 or so. You can plainly see it on the longer term charts below.

Again, please understand that the days of this crappy, LBMA/Comex paper metal monopoly are numbered. "The futures 'tail' will only wag the spot 'dog'" for a little while longer. Be patient and have faith. Use this weakness against them. Buy physical and take delivery. It is truly your only protection against the madness ahead. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  229 Comments

  Refresh
Stormdancer¤
Sep 20, 2011 - 1:22am

@DPH

Quote:

Turdle

Submitted by DarkPurpleHaze on September 19, 2011 - 9:08pm. Hat Tip! 1

That would be incredible. It's a nice daydream and think about panning or using a detector in a area that's known for producing random nuggets.

Did you happen to see those pics of that gigantic nugget that was found in Australia in the 1800's? Omg! I posted a couple pics in the weekend thread TF had up.

There are opportunities here in the States to look and dig etc. and I would like to check it out someday. I can't imagine finding a nugget of gold or a gemstone etc.

Ha! Don't kid yourself DPH. You'd have to get past THIS gold first:

Think of it as the gold/bush standing between you and the bush gold....errm...so to speak :D

You wouldn't make it out of Melbourne....

*snicker*

You don't really think Aussies are so stupid as to leave nuggets lying around for any old foreigner to pick up without distraction do you?

BUDDHA PRINCESSaustrian12874
Sep 20, 2011 - 12:22am

Fellow Turdites I need your help

Well I live in Canada as well. For #2 Question

You will hear many different suggestions and options. We have been dealing with Bank of Nova Scotia? Scotia Mocatta. On the large bars you don't pay any premiums. Yes it is pretty bulky 60-65 ponds? They also buy back without any problems. Some say it is better to have smaller bars for liquidity, some like coins, so it all depends. I think that having variety is always a good thing. I have also been hearing by many they have their physical in their owns stash. You really don't know what could happen when the ... hit's the fan? As it looks now both metals are heading lower so maybe it is a good opportunity to start buying , but not all at once as it may still go lower. Gold is always good to have and it is very dense so, not as bulky, easier to store.

I wouldn't trust safety deposit box or even a bank to hold my physical. You have to use your imagination and be creative. Also remember you will pay 50% tax on profits on your income tax.

I have never bought online myself, but keep hearing many on this site do. I am sure you will get much more advice from people here and when you do just take your time to sift through it and let is sink in and then make your decision. Your parents are lucky to have you advise them in these crucial times.

Good Luck

mezzrow¤
Sep 19, 2011 - 10:47pm

a musical accompaniment - for DPH's picture

Video unavailable

Rumors that Tim Geithner hums himself to sleep with this little ditty nightly are not yet confirmed.

22tlane¤
Sep 19, 2011 - 10:14pm

@DPH

My best friend works for UPS and is in charge of 5 area centers. He told me this weekend that something is odd at work. He has had more federal authorities in the distribution centers seemingly looking for something in the last couple of weeks. He has worked there for 20 years and never seen anything like it. Not sure about false flag but this sure does not sound good. Just thought all the Turdites would like to know.

schmederling
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:30pm

Still Waiting

Still waiting for further Larger correction.... the truck is ready and will be backing up soon!!

Thursday could be the day :)

Gramp
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:28pm
Eric Original
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:27pm

new thread

new thread

redwood
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:26pm

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Turdle GGpaulindoon
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:25pm

paunlindoon - that's the Hand of Faith Nugget

The Hand of Faith is a nugget of fine-quality gold that was found by Kevin Hillier using a metal detector near Kingower, Victoria, Australia on 26 September 1980. Weighing 875 troy ounces (27.21 kg, or 72 troy pounds and 11 troy ounces), the gold nugget was only 12 inches below the surface, resting in a vertical position. The announcement of the discovery occurred at a press conference, attended by the Premier of Victoria Dick Hamer, in Melbourne on 8 October 1980. Kovac's Gems & Minerals were appointed agents for the sale of the huge nugget, by the then anonymous finder. It was sold to theGolden Nugget Las Vegas, a casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, where it is on public display.

It was initially incorrectly stated as weighing only 720 ozt, but after correction, the new calculation was 874.82 ozt. This explains why some publications continue to give an incorrect weight. It is still regarded as the largest modern nugget found by a metal detector, anywhere in the world. Dimensions are 47 cm × 20 cm × 9 cm. The sale price was supposedly around $US1m.

The nugget was the second largest nugget found in Australia during the 20th century, though the largest found anywhere in the world using a metal detector. There were numerous nuggets found during theVictorian gold rush era, commencing in the 1850s, that were far larger.

redwood
Sep 19, 2011 - 9:21pm

At current gold  worth

At current gold worth approx. l.854 M !

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Recent Comments

by RickshawETF, 12 min 41 sec ago
by Island Teal, 14 min 55 sec ago
by GoldHermit, 24 min 26 sec ago
by billhilly, 24 min 53 sec ago
by mavens, 38 min 1 sec ago

Forum Discussion