Sunday Night Charts

Sun, Sep 18, 2011 - 9:00pm

It's been a long and crazy weekend but The Turd is ready to get back to work. I hope that everyone has taken the time to peruse the JPM class-action lawsuit information. Amazing stuff. Since the next CFTC meeting has been postponed to October 4, we'll have to make due with this information for a little while longer.

After a very nice rally on Friday, the metals look poised to have an UP week...for once. I'd suer like to see gold move ap and away from 1800 and drag silver along for the ride, up and through 41. For now, things look good but, as you know, that can all change at around 3:00 am EDT when the criminal LBMA opens.

Here are two gold charts for you. First, note the action on the 2-hour Dec gold chart. If gold can hold above the downward trendline overnight, it looks like a cinch to head back to at least 1850. On the longer term chart, note that gold is now beginning its seventh week above the old, three-year channel. Very impressive!

Next, check out these silver charts! First, on the 2-hour chart, note that silver has clearly broken through the first two possible downtrend lines and only has the one around 41.70 left to deal with. Again, if the metals can avoid preemptive Cartel attacks in overnight, silver looks poise to head up and tackle that line as early as tomorrow. Also, look at this longer term, daily chart for silver. That's a pretty impressive, long term channel I've drawn. Anywhere near that bottom line sure looks like a solid buying opportunity. The top line looks to be in the vicinity of $50 by December.

That's all for tonight. Turd needs his beauty rest. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 18, 2011 - 9:05pm
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:18pm

first magestic

has anyone ordered silver from first magestic's online store ?

the prices looked fair and i can even pick it up at their local office (to save on shipping).

..some nice coin sets and a kilo bar

(and no, i don't work for FM lol )

Sep 18, 2011 - 9:27pm

@ jackinrichmond

Yes, I have, as have many others on this site. The shipping is ultrafast, best if you have a $USD credit card.

The 1oz rounds (tubes of 20) are very nice, as are the 5oz bars. The 10 oz bars have some issues with the flash (the material at the edges), as the bars are coined, and as a result there are marks on the edges of the bars, some people find this a problem, but it is a normal part of the coining process.

The 1kg bars are gorgeous, the only products I am not familiar with from them is their poured bars as well as their larger proof strikes.

Happy shopping.

Sep 18, 2011 - 9:31pm

Where are the silver or gold linings?

Hi Lady,

My Dad said that PMs (Pretty Maiden's I guess) have been hiding their silver or gold linings. Are you hiding them here?

Economical Disaster
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:31pm

@ jackinrichmond

I picked mine up when it was $14 an oz. ( Walked down the street with it) Should have ALSO bought the stock when it was $4 or so at the time. BIG MISTAKE.

Sep 18, 2011 - 9:36pm

@ jackinrichmond

This is a repost, but you can see how a shipment looks from first majestic on this youtube video:

First Majestic Silver Delivery Unboxing 1080HD!

They are always the same in my experience.

Sep 18, 2011 - 9:36pm

The week as a whole might be

The week as a whole might be up, but what do you short term traders think of silver this first half of the week considering a possible greek default on the 20:th? A default would truly bring a pretty good amount of liquidation of pretty much everything, and it might have started already if we take a look at the POSX since the open.

Such a massive liquidation event would play right into the hands of TPTB and the FOCM meeting/announcement later this week.

Will we see a selloff in silver on the 20:th and 21:th followed by a rally into the close of the week?

What happens if the fed dissapoints this thursday? The expectations of an announcement of QE3 might be priced in, and a failure to deliver might pour more gasoline on the selloff that the greek default might trigger.

Dont take my word for any of it, but needless to say i'm worried. Thoughts on this anyone?

Sep 18, 2011 - 9:36pm

@ jackinrichmond

This is a repost, but you can see how a shipment looks from first majestic on this youtube video:

First Majestic Silver Delivery Unboxing 1080HD!

They are always the same in my experience.

argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:41pm

Love that long term silver chart!

I have copied it to my desktop for daily reference. Thanks, Sensei Turd.

Live well. Love much. Laugh often. Learn always.
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:42pm

Thanks Turd!!!


argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:47pm


RE: First Majestic

I, also, have been thinking of ordering from them. Where do they ship from, USA or Mexico. If Mexico, are there any customs issues?


Turdle GG
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:49pm

Thanks Turd. China loves gold, still

Thanks Turd for your continuing guidance.

China’s Gold Investment to Top Record: Cheng

Gold investment demand in China is likely to top a record 200 metric tons this year, the World Gold Council said.

The country’s investment demand surged 70 percent in 2010 to an all-time high of 187 tons, said Albert Cheng, the Far East managing director at the World Gold Council.

China’s “investment demand has picked up exponentially,” Cheng said yesterday in an interview in Montreal. “The financial crisis has triggered people to be cautious of anything they don’t understand,” boosting demand for bullion as an alternative asset.

Gold futures have surged 29 percent this year, touching a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6. The metal climbed as escalating debt woes in Europe and the U.S. boosted demand for haven assets. Indiais the world’s top bullion buyer followed by China. The two countries accounted for 54 percent of world gold consumption in the second quarter, Cheng said.

The council has estimated demand from China may double in 10 years. The forecast may be “too conservative,” Cheng said.

“Investment demand has been a key driver and will remain a key driver, because there’s not many investment options” in China, Cheng said. “The price of gold has surged, and we haven’t seen demand weaken. Chinese people say, ‘If I don’t buy gold today, it will be more expensive tomorrow.’”

China’s gold consumption totaled 706 tons last year, including 452 tons for jewelry, Cheng said. Jewelry demand may climb 9 percent to 10 percent annually in the next five years, he said.

JoeKa jackinrichmond
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:51pm


I would strongly recommend First Majestic. Fantastic quality, value priced. Only issue is the purchase quantity limit.

Again, I live in Singapore and they shipped here fast just fine.

argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 9:53pm


I think this will be a week to buy (in my case, I'm talking about SLV calls) but, as Turd has previously advised, I will be buying time. With all the volativity now, you have to be able to ride out downturns of days/weeks.

Lots of opportunity for day traders, if you can do it. I can't.

Sep 18, 2011 - 9:54pm

More physical

My favorite fleamart coin dealer made a deal today I could not refuse--a handful of Morgans at spot. Two are uncirculated. How do you walk away from that?

argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:00pm

Hey JoeKa

Haven't been here at night to see your posts in a long time. How's it going?

(The Turdist formerly known as oldNavy)
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:01pm

First Majestic

I ordered a kilo bar from First Majestic a couple of years ago. Beautiful, got here fast, and it was nice being able to use a CC thru PayPal. But I haven't ordered from them again, for two reasons:

1) Their shipping to the USA is pretty expensive, especially for small quantities (over $40 for a 10oz bar!). If you're in Canada, it's a better deal. And if you're ordering close to their maximum allowable size, it's not so bad per ounce. But I like ordering in smaller quantities.

2) UPS charged me an extra $24 "customs handling fee" when they delivered the package. FM apologized for this unexpected hit, said they thought they'd worked out an arrangement with UPS not to levy the fee, and promised to refund it to me. But even after several emails and phone calls, it never got done. I eventually gave up, and resolved to place future orders elsewhere. Yeah, it was less than a dollar per ounce. But it still left me with a bad taste in my mouth.

If you want to support another small company that mines its own silver and uses NWTM for production, but with better USA shipping rates, try Great Panther. They have beautiful silver products, and charge a flat $30 shipping for all orders over $400.

Turdle GG
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:01pm

Early indicator for US/Canadian mining stocks?

World's third biggest gold company (Newcrest) up 1.4% in ASX trading today, vs. market down 1.4%.

(Note, however, that Newcrest is not held by GDX, as it's not listed on the NYSE:

The Market Vectors® Gold Miners ETF (GDX) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM).

Deeper argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:05pm

First Majestic Shipping

They ship from BC, Canada.

argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:10pm

RE: First Majestic

Thanks, guys!

Where does Great Panther ship from? I know they are in Mexico.

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:11pm


anyone long, I wish you the best tonight. Wow.

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:12pm


If the Pig gets a bounce of the Euro/Greece meltdown, it will give robots and monkeys a signal to sell silver, however I don't see this lasting long as the rest of the rational humans will be ready to BTFD. Bernanke will come to the rescue of not just the USSA but of the whole world, PM's and Markets will rally, if he doesn't then a major sell off of both (I think your right that everyone priced in some sort of action from the fed), that is until the public basically begs for more debt bondage and the elites demand to socialize their losses. The fuse for Hyperinflation has been lit.

rjsand rjsand
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:26pm


Oops! My previous post was intended for jackinrichmond...not first majestic!

tanjr364 JoeKa
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:28pm

was your order above the 400

was your order above the 400 SGD Customs limit? did customs charge you GST

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:33pm


hey hey buddy! I am about you.

wow, why is it that everytime i post something on Main Street I run into a good acquaintance from Watchtower! :)

I trust all is well with you my friend? How have you been keeping?

@tanjr364: Yes my order was well above the customs limit and I had to pay GST. It was STILL cheaper that buying bullion from local sources. You know the saying:

The closer you are to the source, the more expensive.

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:38pm

Well, the weekly open is being encouraging

Popped up about $18. I've noticed that when the weekly open is strong out the gate, the rest of the week tends to be strong. When the weekly open is weak, so does the price action stay weak as well.

Don't want to quite call a bottom here yet and we won't really know for sure until a week or two have passed, but so far, so good.

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:40pm

GFMS says silver to 50$ if gold to 2000$

Think they might be a little low on silver, but who am i to argue over a measly 10$ an oz.

Thomson Reuters GFMS' Newman: Silver May Move Toward $50 Yet In 2011

Posted 9/18/2011 08:53 PM by Allen Sykora

Montreal-- (Kitco News) -- Silver may yet move toward $50 an ounce this year as investors continue to seek it and gold as safe havens, with industrial demand for silver also likely to remain constructive, said Philip Newman, research director of precious metals with Thomson Reuters GFMS.

There could be some volatility in silver, he said in an interview with Kitco News on the sidelines of the annual London Bullion Market Association’s conference being held in Montreal this week.

“We think gold is likely, before the end of the year, to reach the $2,000 level,” Newman said. “That will see silver move higher, perhaps toward the $50 mark.

Silver is also maintaining underlying strength in industrial demand, Newman said.

“Silver is a little more diverse,” he said of its double role as an investment and industrial metal. “You have twin pillars.”

Gold has always had an important role for safe-haven demand among investors, but this is becoming increasingly significant for silver, Newman said.

“You have retail and high-net-worth investors coming into the market from the physical perspective, buying small bars and coins, (plus) ETFs,” he said. “That’s helping to push prices higher.”

For the year to date, global silver exchange-traded fund holdings are down slightly from the 600 million where they stood at the end of 2010, Newman said. But, he continued, the retreat has been “modest” and “they still remain at elevated levels and historically high levels.”

He anticipates a large percentage of these silver ETF holdings will be “quite sticky,” meaning investors will be willing to hang onto them for some time. “They have been purchased by small and high-net worth (investors) as a form of wealth preservation and asset diversification,” he said.

While industrial demand could suffer some in an economic downturn, Newman cited some resiliency.

“There is the potential for industrial demand to weaken, although we haven’t seen that just yet,” he said. “But there is always the risk if we have a double-dip recession emerge. The question is how sharply will it fall? It’s hard to see it falling to the extent that it did in 2009. That year, had the largest annual decline in the history of our (annual statistical) series. But then we saw the resilience of industrial demand the following year, when we had the largest annual rise in a single year.”

Some of the resilience is due to a wide range and growing number of uses, he said. For instance, a slowdown in the auto sector presumably means less silver demand for electrical contact points. However, the number of applications per vehicle—such as rear-parking sensors—is increasing.

“So the growing number of uses can partially offset a decline in auto sales,” he said.

Overall, industrial use will remain perhaps the dominant source of demand for the metal, Newman said. Jewelry demand has performed “relatively well,” with expectations of strong buying in India and substitution toward silver from gold in Western markets due to the high cost of gold. However, photo and silverware demand for the metal are in a long-term structural decline.

Mine supply for silver is rising faster than for other metals, helped by an increase of by-product from gold-mining operations plus a number of major primary projects in recent years. Silver mine output is expected to grow by more than 6% this year, with recycled supply also on the increase. Gold-mine supply is forecast to grow a little more than 4% this year and platinum group metals by around 2% to 3%.

For silver prices to remain supported as the supply increases, it will be important for investment demand to fill any gap that otherwise might exist between output and fabrication demand, Newman said.

“Sometimes people forget you need investment demand to remain strong just to keep prices where they are,” he said. “Therefore, you do require additional flows into the market to push prices higher.”

For now, he looks for the industrial and investment demand to absorb the supply into 2012. The sovereign-debt crisis “is not going away,” and loose monetary policy persists in a number of key economies, with negative real interest rates.

There are also worries about another recession.

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:40pm


Jim Puplava and David Morgan hosted a discussion on Friday, in which the participants essentially exonerate Silvercorp and suggest that the recent anonymous allegations against SVM have indeed been generated by short sellers. A good quote -"someone will be going to jail, and it won't be anyone from Silvercorp.

Sep 18, 2011 - 10:41pm

Sugar Weekly

The last bar is showing the move in the past 24 hours. Still looks in good shape on the weekly chart. That is what we've collectively resorted to in silver to comfort ourselves.

TheYeomanFarmer argent rampant
Sep 18, 2011 - 10:44pm

Great Panther

GPL does mine silver in Mexico, but their corporate headquarters are located in Canada (Vancouver), just like First Majestic.

My understanding is that both companies have their silver fabricated into finished products by Northwest Territorial Mint in the USA. FM's package came to me from Vancouver. I can't remember where GPL's originated from --- whether Canada or drop shipped directly from NWTM.


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