A Little Help?

Tue, Sep 13, 2011 - 4:53pm

I don't know about you but ole Turd had a good day. It looked a little dicey at 7:00 am but the PMs ended up with some stellar performance. Anyone willing to trust in The Turd this morning is already up quite a bit of fiat. That makes me smile. But today is in the books and all that matters now is tomorrow and the next day and the next day...Where do we go from here? Let's start with gold as the chart is quite compelling.

Take a look at this hourly chart:

There seems to be something quite important going on here. Working from left to right across the chart, note the angles of the trendlines. The declines got flatter and the ascents have gotten more steep. Now, granted, the sample size here is pretty small...two ups and two downs...but, nonetheless, this tells us something. The ferocity of the 36-hour decline early last week was met with an almost equally steep ascent Wednesday into Thursday. Note, then that the next decline lasted about two days and was "flatter" than last week's decline. Finally, note that the rally off of this morning's low is considerably more steep than last week. In fact, gold lost almost $100 in the 48 hours from Friday morning to this morning but it has already, in 12 hours, put about half of those losses back on. Lastly, note the almost perfect double-bottom near 1800.

Again, because of the smaller sample size (one week's worth of price action), it's hard to go overboard with excitement. What we can say, however, is that this chart shows us that, for now, the buying is gaining in intensity while the selling is waning. Combine that with the aforementioned double-bottom and it sure looks to me like gold is trending higher for the rest of this week. Your next target is $1860. After besting that level, we'll take aim at the highs from early last Friday, near $1890.

This silver chart is looking better, too, but not as friendly as gold. The area between 41.80 and 42 appears to have some technical significance so I would look for some resistance there. IF it can clear there, it will have clear sailing toward last week's highs near $43.

Part of the reason my enthusiasm for silver is somewhat tempered is the crude chart. Though it has rallied quite strongly for the past month, it's reaching a rather critical point. I currently have no positions in crude. If I did, I think I'd be looking to lighten some here. $91-92 is going to be some pretty tough sledding and, if it rolls over, it could easily drop back down into the lower 80s. I think it will find incredibly strong support there, though, so I'd be looking to re-establish a position if/when it gets there.

OK, now here's the part where I come to you with my hat in hand. Frankly, the site is struggling a bit financially. Our current adsense revenue is barely enough to pay the bills (servers, tech support, site improvements etc.). I am working on ways to enhance our profitability but, in the meantime, I feel I must ask for a little help. Not much. Heck, if everyone who visited this site on a daily basis donated an actual $0.02 instead of just their rhetorical two cents, we'd be floating in cash. All I ask tonight is that if you have found value in this site and if this site has helped you financially and/or educationally, please consider "feeding the turd".

One of the ways I hope to drive more revenue to the site is through this new podcast feature. Please understand that I am doing this for you, not me. Remember, I am just the facilitator. You have made this site popular. You are the reason I am able to communicate with people who, as recently as one year ago, would never, ever in a million years have returned my calls. My hope is to give you access to these people through the podcasts. I figure that if I want to talk to them, then you'd probably like to talk to them, too. Any question I ask is probably something you'd like to have answered.

To that end, I've already lined up a pretty impressive list of future interviews. My hope is to record and release them on a bi-weekly basis. We're going to be building a dedicated "podcast" page for the site. We will even be developing a smartphone app that all Turdites can download for easy access to the information. This, too, will cost a few bucks, so, as mentioned above, any "assistance" you can provide will be much appreciated.

Thank you all again for affording me this amazing opportunity. I often describe myself these days as "Jimmy Stewart". If you recall, Mr. Stewart often played the role of the "ordinary man caught up in the extraordinary situation." This pretty well describes my reality at this point. My hope is that, when the movie is made, I get to star as myself. I'm kind of hoping that Rachel McAdams or Jessica Alba will play the role of Mrs. Ferguson. We'll have to see on that one. I doubt that the real Mrs. Ferguson would be too excited about that.

Anyway, have a great evening. Watch the Asian Globex closely and wait for the regular 3:00 am LBMA beatdown. If tomorrow we open the Comex above 1850, we could end up having a pretty fun day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 13, 2011 - 4:58pm

Thanks Turd, couldn't follow

Thanks Turd, couldn't follow your input today during the trading hours, but seems that tomorrow could be a very decisive day.

We've had waterfall 2 days in a row during LBMA trading hours, and usually those patterns don't happen more than two consecutive days, but WTFDIK?


As usual The Keiser Report:

Keiser Report: Confidence Game (E183)
Hard Rain
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:08pm

Crystal Ball


Can I borrow your crystal ball? I want to buy some lottery tickets, and my chances would improve dramatically, if I used your crystal ball.

Very nice call, in the face of what was going on overnight!


Sep 13, 2011 - 5:10pm

turd fed

this site is very valuable to me, turd fed.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:14pm

Done and Done!


Just shot you some donation, If it keeps this site going well into the future and helps you do what you need to do then I will always gladly throw a little fiat your way.

If however you start asking me to donate my gold to you, well....I might have an issue with that, lol. Anyway, good luck and thanks for all your doing.

I bought on the 1800 dip and am smiling today for it. Looks like we should see 1900 again very soon, I am curious to see Gold hit 1936 though, seems to be a tough challenge but once it goes through there I think it will be off to 2000 very quickly and that I will really smile for.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:14pm

Feed the Turd

Dear Mr. Turd, sir..I just fed the Turd..I really wish I could do more but with in these times who knows what's around the corner. I hope my modest contribution will help in some small way!

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:15pm

Hey Turd, at some point maybe

Hey Turd, at some point maybe you can sell CD's of the audio files of your interviews to try and raise some cash for the site. Kind of like Santa does with his DVD's of the articles on his site. Just throwing some ideas out there.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:20pm

GLD Video

Video unavailable
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:23pm

consider yourself fed

Worth every cent and more

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:28pm


Done. Thanks for all you do, Turd!

Couldn't decide between Maples and Krugs yesterday, so bought one of each.

H - original
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:31pm

feeding time!!

Thanks Turd!!

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:32pm

"Watch the Asian Globex

"Watch the Asian Globex closely"

Aahh.. finally ;)

Economical Disaster
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:33pm

I used to own a site that was

I used to own a site that was numbered around 70,000 in the world. I made NOTHING until I begged for DONATIONS. That was temporary as you know. Unless you start asking for advertising, adsense, chitka, infolinks, affiliate programs, amazon links, this will be a lost cause in a few months. Hate to say it, but MANY people I know make nothing on INFO sites, unless you owned www.lolcats.com that sold for millions ( they are ranked only 159,000)... or put up ads..sell cd's or books.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:35pm

You should try to put your

You should try to put your ads to different places and see if they generate more clicks. Maybe an ad below the article content before comments start. Or an ad in the middle of article, so the person reading the content actually looks at it.

Patrick Wright speconomist
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:35pm

Great call

Thanks TF Great call, I do believe the bottom is in for both gold and silver, I was short silver from 42.20 and closed my shorts at 40.50 when I read your call yesterday and felt that price action had changed I am now looking to go long The good news for those that follow Elliott wave Is that wave 3 is usually the most powerful, we had a wave one from 33.85 in silver to 44+, then a correction and wave 3 should take us to 55 or higher by mid nov and more importantly I think this time will be the last time in this bull market we will see sub 40 silver (ok it was only very briefly but still) Enjoy the rise ahead!

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:35pm

turd just fed

thanks for all you do


Sep 13, 2011 - 5:36pm

Turd fed

Fiat sent your way, Turd Man. Appreciate all you do.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:37pm

Greek yields

Greek govt bonds 2-year yield from yesterday. Today it is actually another 10% higher. The one-year one is touching 135%. Anyone that seriously believe this is sustainable?!


Sep 13, 2011 - 5:37pm

Fleck QE

9-13-11 "In sum, I feel not only will we get a bold new round of QE from the Fed next week, but other central banks will join in the easing (the BOJ and SNB are already printing money in an attempt to weaken their currencies). If that happens, I believe that assets (stocks, bonds, and commodities) will rally rather dramatically, at least for a while, with the length and size of the rally depending on the individual idea/asset. If not, it will probably be safe to get short, since markets would be pummeled, and the central planners would be forced to react to the weakness."

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:38pm

$500 billion debt limit increase

Something that went by fairly unnoticed was the $500 billion debt limit increase passed by the US Senate last week. WSJ covers it here. Half a trillion is not what it used to be and merely chump change nowadays.

Economical Disaster
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:39pm

When Greece DEFAULTS

1. Japanese banks hold $432 million in Greek debt
2. Spanish banks hold $540 million in Greek debt

3. U.S. banks hold $1.5 billion
in Greek debt
4. Italian banks hold $2.35 billion in Greek debt

5. UK banks hold $3.4 billion in Greek debt

6. French banks hold $14.96 billion
in Greek debt
7. German banks hold $22.65 billion
in Greek debt
8. Greek banks hold $62.8 billion
in Greek debt

9. But banks in Europe have been working to cut their exposures

10. Greek Banks Downgraded by S&P

11. Moody’s expected to downgrade Soc Gen, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole this week

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:40pm

Just donated $20

Just donated $20 USD. I look at it like I am contributing/ donating to a
community that I'm a part of, for preservation & continued improvement.
Keep up the great work, Turd ( & everyone else, including contributors)! Cheers! -jL

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:41pm


Hey Turd, I think you'll find that this community will step up big whenever you need to pass the hat.

I'm guilty of being inconsistent with "feeding the Turd", and occasionally need to be reminded, but I think that what you've built here is one of the real gems of the internet, where ideas and experience can be shared in a (mostly) civil fashion. I personally would rather see a "money-bomb" type call periodically than a whole bunch of revenue generating overhead and clutter.

One suggestion you might consider to help stabilize your cash flows would be to set up some sort of recurring donation process for those who are up for it. I personally have automatic donations made monthly to some philanthropies that I support, and it works well for me because: 1) it's still a donation, and 2) I can opt out whenever my circumstances change. Just food for thought.

Bottom (no pun intended) line - ask for help when you need it, and I'm betting a bunch of us will step up.


Chris P. Bacon
Sep 13, 2011 - 5:42pm

And Done!

Tipped the Turd as best I can, just shot my available funds BTFD $0.02 off the hard bottom!

Thanks TF!!

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:46pm



$50 winding its way to you through the Aether, thanks for all you do.


Sep 13, 2011 - 5:47pm


I see it is trading for $6.21 in A.H. I stated before I bailed out on a big pile at $7.21 on the way down. Who really knows where it will land? Not I.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:50pm

wanna help

I click the ads as much as I can, especially that commodity auction site, even though its a total scam. It makes me happy that fraudulent site has to pay turd every time I click.

That being said, and I know this will be taken the wrong way though I mean no offense to Stephanie or the other admins, but there is no way you should not be cashflow positive on this with the traffic you draw.

If they are charging you even $100 a month for your server you are being raped. How much is this costing you man? Now that your site is built you don't need to pay anyone to moderate, scotj and the rest are doing a bang up job.

If you are not in the black overall you are doing something wrong, and its not revenue, its gotta be expenses.

All I'm saying is what my momma told me "you better shop around"

Just do this for me, google 'dedicated servers' and look at the prices.

Sorry if I sound abrasive I just want to help, it seems that is just the way I speak. No matter what you have my full support and clicks. Thank you so much for all you do.

Sep 13, 2011 - 5:55pm

Thanks Turd! Did my little

Thanks Turd! Did my little part to keep it rocking.

Sep 13, 2011 - 6:01pm


We have witnessed 10% sell offs in the blink of an eye so with the rapidly deteriorating situation in Europe and America and the knock on effect that will have, why do you dismiss a big fall in metals? I keep hearing this line of it's different this time but we have seen 10% sell offs without a major catastrophic melt down. It might not amount to the same colossal fall, but it will be pretty damn hefty. The question is at what point to cut the long position, could be months away i suppose.

Sep 13, 2011 - 6:01pm


Thanks Turd!

Do you know that joke about the tree biggest lies in the world? No? Don't worry, the PayPal cheque is in the (e)mail!

PM Stackin' Fool
Sep 13, 2011 - 6:02pm

Turd Fed

Thanks for all that you do on this site! I was happy to make my contribution. Many more of those to follow as the trading account grows.


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