Turd Picks His Bottom

476
135
Mon, Sep 12, 2011 - 5:44pm

Because I seemingly like the adrenaline rush of putting my neck on the line, The Turd is ready with another fearless prediction. So, sit back, relax and read as Turd once again attempts to predict the future.

As stated often, what do I know? I'm just a dope with a Macbook. However, several of my favorite indicators converged today so, after warning you last week to be cautious, I'm ready to get excited about buying again. Why, you ask?

1) The Swiss unexpectedly devalued their currency 5 trading days ago. Long term, this move is extraordinarily bullish for all commodities and hard assets. Oddly, commodities and hard assets have fallen, instead. It's been my experience that counterintuitive moves generally last 3-5 days.

2) The POSX rallied in the face of the Swiss devaluation. This rally has also lasted 5 days and appears to have run its course.

paper_9-12pmpig5.jpgpaper_9-12pmpig12.jpg

3) Trader Dan was kind enough to to give us this CCI chart last week. Note that many of the declines have lasted 4-6 days. I expected the current decline to last into this week and reach down toward the convergence of the 50-day moving average and the red trendline, near 645. Today, the index hit 644.

large_cci_index_as_of_9-6-2011-1_0.jpg

4) Both PMs traded down and touched the bottom boundaries of their current channels today. In gold, the low trade was $1804. In silver it was $39.75. Both have since rebounded and I have lasts of 1818 and 40.17. On the charts below, look at the powerful rallies that have followed the previous five approaches toward the lower trendlines. It's as if our Buyer(s) of Size are watching these channels, too, and using them to time their trades.

paper_9-12pmgold.jpgpaper_9-12pmsilv.jpg

Upon considering all of this, I feel it's safe to call a bottom to this mini correction. I expect The Pig to reverse lower from here, thereby easing the selling pressure on the commodities and the PMs. As sellers exit the pits, prices will levitate. Later this week, The Cartel will be forced into covering more shorts and we will end the week considerably higher than we are now. In short, the lows of the week, and likely the month, are in.

Lastly, I've been waiting to take a swing at some edamame and I finally got my chance today. The chart below is a textbook case of basic technical analysis. Note that the price of soybeans had been contained in a $1 range for all of 2011. Last month, it finally broke higher. Moves out of such long-term ranges almost never persist without first a successful re-test of the top of the old range. Remember, "what had been resistance becomes support". So, when I saw beans break out last month, I promised myself I would buy some on the inevitable pullback to around $14. That occurred today (intraday low of $13.89) and I am now the proud owner of a few Nov11 $14 calls. I'm looking (hoping) for a rally back toward $14.50 and then on to $15.

paper_9-12pmbean.jpg

OK, the guillotine has been raised and Turd has inserted his head. Let's see what tomorrow brings. TF

9:30 EDT UPDATE:

In a stunning development that no one could have anticipated, gold was mercilessly attacked by a goon squad of thugs from the LBMA overnight. After rallying over $30 on the Globex in Asian trading, the evil defenders of the status quo staged another 3:00 a.m. attack that was brutal enough to make even Tommy DeVito blush with shock.

GoodFellas Tommy DeVito "Funny How?"

paper_9-13amgold3min.jpg

However, the growing FULBMA on the chart indicates that today may be different. Instead of initiating an all- day raid and liquidation event, gold double-bottomed at yesterday's lows and has since rallied. I have a last in the Dec11 of 1826. Keep an eye today on the levels listed below. If today truly is a "Turnaround Tuesday", the metals will move higher, slowly at first and then accelerating into the close as The Cartel squares off some shorts ahead of the CoT survey.

paper_9-13amgold.jpgpaper_9-13amsilv.jpg

More later. TF

10:30 am EDT UPDATE:

Lots of chatter again today about European "bailouts". Yesterday, it was the Chinese. Today, it's the Russkies. Whatever. Like it matters. Somehow the status quo dead-enders will piece together a "rescue package" to buy themselves some more time. In the end, all that matters is the undeniably inflationary effect this will all have. (Tr)Billions of dollars and/or euro need to be created and/or extracted from reserves to pull off this rescue. Again, Econ 101 shows that more supply invariably equals less value. The metals, the grains, crude...all going higher. Period. Buy the dip. Do not look for extended downside unless the trend from July is broken.

paper_9-13amgolddaily.jpg

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  476 Comments

fast mover
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:47pm

Way Ted!

Way Ted!

Eric Original
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:49pm

First?  No way...

First? No way...

Hope you are right on that bottom TF, I wuz buyin the dip today.

cpnscarlet
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:49pm

TURD - From your mouth to our

TURD - From your mouth to our ears...hope you're right.

Soy Beans? I'll just stick with MOO. Thanks.


Sep 12, 2011 - 5:51pm

Beans?  What do I know from

Beans? What do I know from beans?

flaunt
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:51pm

Mmmm soybeans.

Mmmm soybeans.

Iowegian
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:51pm

@ Eric

That's why you are an "Original"!

fast mover
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:51pm

Turd,  You got the new

Turd, 

You got the new Macbook with optional Magic 8 ball?

I've heard that Apple had some new options they were testing. lol

best,

fm

the yonk
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:56pm

bottoms

I think the tman is on to something!

the yonk
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:57pm

bottoms

I think the tman is on to something!

Haole
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:57pm

Thanks Turd

You're the best dope with a MacBook ever!

=)

33 and a turd
Sep 12, 2011 - 5:59pm

best thread title ever

I'm glad you're on our side Turd

cpnscarlet
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:00pm

On Obama

Comment from last thread - Obama's crotch salute.

I'm as old as Barry - that's the only thing we have in common. I was born in '61 and spent my Air Force years as one of Ronnie Reagan's "Star Warriors" - I was a research engineer working with big lasers during SDI. Ever read "Cardinal of the Kremlin"? That was pretty much the romantic version of my shop at the AF Weapons Lab. I was a cold war kid and a very cold warrior.

When Obama was elected, I spent a lot of time teaching the young LTs and CAPTs what the term "COMSYMP" used to mean and letting them know "Hey, that's your Commander-in-Chief. What are you going to do about it?" I'm hoping those officers have a good look at the picture and remember what I told them.

SilverDog
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:03pm

Okay, let's roll...

I been here long enough to know you call it more right than wrong.

This is otherwise totally counter-intuitive, but I just bought on reopen.

Good luck Turdites.

Pellet
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:04pm

Trading Futures

For those of you trading futures, I think the way to go in the next several months is to trade the volatility. BTFD and sell at the peak, rinse and repeat. So thanks Turd for your call on the bottom (I know, DYOD) and hopefully we'll have another opportunity to dump contracts after another price surge.

Swift Boat Vet
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:04pm

Firstest with the mostest

The Turdmeister makes another call, which means a trip to the local PM emporium and a visit with my buddy, the "Silver 'Typhoon' of Multnomah Village". (My longtime nickname for a great guy). This time either a 10 oz bar or some 90%. Will decide when I get there.

Of course, Turd is the "Silver 'Typhoon' of the internet AND the airwaves now! Congrats Turd.

Eric. I had to shuffle some items on the shelves to make room for a few dozen 12 oz hams because of you! Thanks for the tip buddy. It has become one of the staples in use/storage in our household.

Swifty

rotbrador
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:05pm

DX

i like the way you peg the actions to the dollar index ... dead cat bounce end today for the pig.... me think.

tmosley
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:06pm

I'm not convinced.  I'm

I'm not convinced. I'm looking for some more financial terrorism this week which will be tuned to keep gold and silver down, possibly a major smash as more and more inflationary policies are set in place.

I'm thinking we are near the endgame. They will use up all of their ammo in one last stand which will end with an explosion as inflation hits the streets. Gold and silver will stop being traded in Western exchanges by government fiat. Physical metals will skyrocket, and much of their supply will race out of the West to the open arms of Easterners.

Maybe I'm just feeling grim because I didn't get a good night's sleep last night, but things are feeling a lot like the days before Lehman. I'd be prepared, mentally and financially, for a major crash in PMs. Hell, this is even the right month for that to happen. 

margaritatime
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:06pm

Nice

Turd I said buy the f'in dip [BTFD] - I didn't mean buy the bean dip! What's wrong with you? ;)

Eric Original
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:07pm
Jimbio
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:08pm

@TF

TF, right or wrong, you tell it like you see it. Thats why i come back day after day to this site.

Also, might go long beans to hedge my consumption of soybeans. I love the stuff.

rotbrador
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:08pm

edamame

can i get me a sushi contract?

AinT
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:09pm

Picking bottoms

Picking bottoms can be a messy business, I hope you washed your hands!

MarkyX
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:11pm

Confused

I thought you said if it went through 1825, that it was going to down further. Why the sudden change saying this is the bottom?

schmederling
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:14pm

Tonight:

We may see further down trend tonight as HK has a holiday tomorrow and the Globex could send one final smack down in the morning hours IMHO.

Let's wait and see if this happens!!

Richard Booze
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:16pm

Soybeans???

I'm thinkin' sowbellies! I'll be filthy rich!!

Not this horse, actually. Not a trader, will sit on the sidelines a few more months, do a little stacking.

Haole cpnscarlet
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:17pm

@cpnscarlet

"I'm as old as Barry - that's the only thing we have in common. I was born in '61 and spent my Air Force years as one of Ronnie Reagan's "Star Warriors" - I was a research engineer working with big lasers during SDI."

Sir, do you have any knowledge of Directed Energy Weapons, Space Based Lasers, BTOS systems a la NAOMI/SELENE, Electromagnetic Rail Guns, etc. currently in "development"/operation under Naval Space Command, USSTRATCOM, SPAWAR, etc. and if so would you be willing to share some? Pretty fascinating stuff. Thanks, because it didn't end with "Star Wars"... ;)

2turdledoves
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:17pm

Bought again at 1805

I am a bit worried that Hong Kong is closed today but I did make a big splash at 1805. May the Turd be right again.

Goofy
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:17pm

Thanks Turd, good thinking.

Thanks Turd, good thinking. It also look like the EUR/USD hit the short term bottom. Some times it seems like Silver often rally up along whit the EUR/USD.

Eric Original
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:19pm

Holy Crapoly, Swift Boat!!

You reminded me to check my Walgreens flyer from yesterday. Those hams are on sale in-store for 2 for $5 this week!! No mention of a limit this time. Margarita, get on down there, maybe you can bump into Mr. Dreamy again.

For online orders, it already says "Out of Stock"!!

Unleash "Hampede II: Revenge of the Turds"

exiledbear
Sep 12, 2011 - 6:19pm

Eh, that's what your job is -

The future. You don't have to get it right all the time.

All new highs for gold in just about every other currency but the USD. Eventually this circus in Europe will hit our shores. 

Patience. We'll get there soon enough. I just hope the lights are still on, the furnace is still going and the grocery store is still open when we do get there.

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