Painting The Tape

388
128
Mon, Aug 29, 2011 - 10:59am

"Painting The Tape" is an old stockbroker term. In essence, an individual conspires to make the "tape" look positive or negative for the day by dumping a bunch of orders right at the close, thereby "painting the tape" with the illusion of all-day strength or weakness. It used to be a somewhat common practice. It also used to be illegal.

As this pertains the the PMs, The Cartel regularly conspires not to paint the "tape". No, they have bigger goals in mind. They want to paint the entire chart. They know how much money is run into and out of the metals pits each day by chart-reading, HFT algos. They know that if they can cweate a scawey chawt pattewhn, they can induce WOPR to help them out on the sell side. You can always count on The Cartel to never miss an opportunity. Double-tops, outside reversal days and H&S tops. If the opportunity is there, they're going to take it. I mentioned this likelihood last week and in the previous thread.

From Thursday: "All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded."

From Friday: "As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens."

From Saturday: "That said, don't expect wine and roses on Monday. As predicted late last week, the metals have rebounded right to points where The Cartel can attempt to create head-and-shoulders tops. I don't think I can ever remember a time when, given the opportunity to paint the tape, The Cartel did not pounce. Early next week could still get a little dicey while The Forces of Darkness make their moves."

I remind of of this not because I need to once again demonstrate my brilliance (), I state it to keep you grounded and unafraid. As I've pointed out repeatedly, the reason The Turd has become the hands-down most accurate PM sage/predictor on the internet is simple: Once you accept that the ongoing battle for PM supremacy is between The Cartel of bullion banks and an overwhelming tide of regular investors who are just now waking up and demanding real assets and sound money, predicting support and resistance levels becomes quite simple. So easy, even a Turd can do it.

So, once again I ask, where do we go from here? Currently, gold is about $10 off its lows at 1793 and silver is at 40.83. I'm not buying anything just yet. First of all, look at the 1-minute charts from today's open:

Now, compare those two charts to the opening charts from last Wednesday. Of course, last Wednesday saw the second gold margin hike announced after the close.

That's enough right there to keep me on the sidelines all day. You should consider the same.

However, more selling and chart painting will eventually create an opportunity to do some buying so we need to be prepared. First up, here's a gold chart. Since it is the current object of C/C/C derision, I'm not overly excited about adding to my current positions. (If you're wondering, I have call spreads in October and December.) IF the Forces of Evil are able to drive gold all the way back toward last week's lows, I plan to buy back the "sold" side of my spreads and open them up to greater potential return. We'll see.

Here's where I'm planning to blow my dry powder, though: Silver. If we can get another margin hike in gold (which would be criminal and unnecessary but since when has that stopped them?), then maybe silver could fall all the way back under $40 and once again approach the bottom of the channel we found last week. IF it does, I'll be ready.

OK, that's all. I hope everyone has a great day! TF

p.s. As you know, I can no longer bear to watch CNBS. The only time I ever have it on is the first Friday of every month at 8:20 am. I always get a kick out of watching The Shill, The Coug and Liesman backpedal and SPIN. Anyway, if you are watching CNBS today, please let us all know the first time some douchebag comes on and shows the "clear head-and shoulders top that has formed on the gold chart". That should be worth a few giggles.

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  388 Comments

speconomist
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:00am

Can anyone else notice any

From the previous thread:

Can anyone else notice any other detail to recognize patterns before takedowns?

Thanks for the update as always!

Silverman
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:02am

I lost my patience and pulled

I lost my patience and pulled the trigger at 1800. God bless.

Ferd Torgerson
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:04am

Fifth??

Almost made it on my own but not close enough - even for hand grenades.

silvergoldsilver
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:08am

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Lets just fast forward to November, this is getting boring.

Tesla
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:09am
SilverTree
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:10am
Blight Master
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:10am

Hmmm, back over 1800, FUBM in

Hmmm, back over 1800, FUBM in full effect, chart painting fail. Lets see if they try again.

wackzingo
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:11am

Buying more....

Can anyone recommend a good book(s) on options trading for the dummies?

The price drops and pullbacks are always welcome here. I finally got some extra money this week so I picked up a roll of Canadian Maples and hoping to pick up some more shares in EXK.

Dr G
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:17am

@silvergoldsilver, no need to

@silvergoldsilver, no need to wait until November, my friend. Me thinks we will see some good PM fireworks coming up next week. Traditionally silver makes huge moves beginning with next week.

Also, I wonder how well the tape will be painted following the BLSBS data this Friday? I'm thinking +300,000 jobs, which we all know in reality is completely and blatantly false as usual. More like -90,000 for the 20th month in a row.

ScottJ
Aug 29, 2011 - 11:19am

Vintage Ron Paul

Very nice post Turd. "They aren't painting the tape, they are painting the chart."

--

How about some vintage Ron Paul for the occasion?

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
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8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
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7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

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6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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