Ahead of an Interesting Weekend

413
159
Fri, Aug 26, 2011 - 10:34am

Well, don't you wonder what the world will look like come Monday? So many unpredictable events are coming that it makes the job of being Turd significantly more challenging. However, The Turd is up to the task and willing, once again, to attempt to predict the unpredictable.

First up, the short term. As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens. As The Turd's old man used to say: "Do you know what motel spelled backward is? Let om". In this case, that logic applies. Let the buffoons spout all the bubble and top nonsense that they want. It doesn't matter. The metals are still going significantly higher before year end and none of the top-calling douchebags will be held accountable for being wrong anyway.

For today, I predicted yesterday that gold could see 1790-1800 and that silver could see 41.80-42.20. Upon further review, I'd like to refine those numbers just a bit. Now, we may have already seen the highs and they are both close enough to those targets that they may not trade much higher. Gold touched 1798 and silver tapped 41.34. I don't think silver will trade much higher than 41.50 today but it could still reach up to the goals stated yesterday. Gold, on the other hand, still could see some upside. IF it can trade through 1800, it has a decent chance of making it all the way to 1820 or so. If it does, I will be looking to lighten some Oct calls before the weekend.

That said, the long term picture for both metals remains quite positive, regardless of the nonsense you hear on financial TV. Both of the charts below are very instructive and I plan on updating them frequently in the coming days and weeks as I believe they represent the true picture of what to expect for future price movements. Note that silver is in a very nice up channel. This is much appreciated as it is something that takes much of the complication out of trading. Gold, on the other hand, has a chart formation that you rarely ever see. Let's call it a "reverse pennant" and it is indicative of an uptrend that has an increasing level of volatility. IF this trend continues, we can use this chart to make a lot of fiat as the swings up and down are only going to get wider.

I'd like to close today with a couple of housekeeping items.

1) Civility. Please remember that we are trying to build a place here that is unlike other internet sites. We treat others the way we want to be treated. This leads me to...

2) The goal of this site is to help and educate as many as possible through our collective experience and wisdom. The site is used by people ranging in age from 13-93. If you would be uncomfortable using certain language, innuendo and images around you daughter or your grandmother, then don't bring it here. Use discretion.

3) Try to take it easy on poor, old Blythe. During work hours, she may be a heartless shrew who takes pleasure in the blatant manipulation of the metals. In her personal life, her bio paints a portrait of someone different. I guess my point is: It's beneath us to deride her with nasty slang on her personal sites. Let others do that if they feel they must. We here should be more concerned with surviving the disaster that is most assuredly coming.

4) I do, from time to time, delete things. This is not censorship. Censorship is an impairment of your right to free speech in the public arena. This is not a public arena. This is my website. I own it. I decide what gets viewed and what stays posted. That said, I've only deleted a handful of things in the first 60 days and most of it was copyrighted material that could not be allowed to stay.

Finally, be very careful as we head into the weekend. The current pattern in gold is frighteningly similar to the pattern of silver back in late April. The Sunday Night Massacre followed the first margin hike and occurred during a thinly-traded Globex session the preceded a London holiday. Gold has now seen two margin hikes and this Sunday's Globex session also precedes a London holiday. Throw in the fact that many market participants will be MIA Sunday evening due to what looks to be an ongoing hurricane and you get an almost ideal setup for the criminal C/C/C to unleash Sunday Night Massacre II. Not sayin...just sayin.

Have a great day. I'll try to update after the close. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  413 Comments

Shill
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:55am

Poor gold shorts lol

Poor gold shorts lol

even steven
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:55am

...and now for something entirely different...

I thought this may be interesting, although not entirely related to PM.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=193037

bullwhip29
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:57am

TPTB achieved their goals for this week...

- didn't need to play QE3 card today; can keep powder dry until next mtg (or make market think they can)

- equity markets didn't collapse as many expected (perhaps due to PPT intervention or something else?) leaving those who are actually at work today scratching their heads wondering if things are really as bad as they initially thought; MSM will now start spewing out nonsense over the wknd that things have stabilized, no more money printing needed, Benny's got everything under control...

- activity in PM's over the last several days makes even more sense now; we will now be range bound IMHO, bounces will be sold into and so forth until we get more clarity (if that is indeed possible) on what policy makers may or may not do going forward and when the next margin hike may or may not come

- the very carefully crafted (and timed) BRK/BAC deal reeks of desperation, but has also spooked many who have been shorting the crap out of the banks (shades of spring '09?); cue the low volume meltup in financials again as traders begin to unwind short positions

- apparently, no one seems to care about Steve Jobs' resignation anymore; a major collapse in AAPL this week would have been somewhat problematic to say the least, don't kid yourselves; once again, more applause for the spinmeisters

"Everything you can imagine is real".

Pablo Picasso

sgs
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:00pm

Reflection

I am a grateful newbie to this site and have brought this post here as I see similarities in Turd's post and the following reflection on us as society at large.

Gold is supported by the fundamentals -- all the planets are lined up for gold to move far, far higher from here. Is this good? No, it is a tragedy. The mining of gold is terrible and destructive and largely pointless as its critics have so often said. The rise of gold is a testimony to our inability to manage our affairs -- we failed to rise to the challenge of creating and sustaining a vibrant economy with a noble and ethical culture. Now we are reduced to more primitive means of protecting ourselves from the greed, corruption, incompetence, stupidity and impoverished state of our economy and our society.

Gold will rise to $10k, not because anybody here is brilliant but because nobody here can do a damn thing to stop it. Together, we have shown we cannot handle democracy and will probably fumble it away, day by day. The rise of gold reflect our failure. There will be terrible consequences -- terrible suffering -- for our self-inflicted failures. America as we thought it should be is dying -- not because government is too large or small, but because we did not know how to govern ourselves.

https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27559450

silver foil hat
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:01pm

1 Min. chart... breakout after noon?

edit... well that lasted about as long as a phart in a whirlwind.... (or hurricane).

backseatdriver
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:06pm

FWIW

From Hommel: "The nature of fraud is that it is a lie. Liars often resort to lies to protect their lies, and have even been known to pay money to false witnesses to gain an appearance of credibility. The COMEX contracts can be fulfilled via ETF shares, and ETF shares are most likely backed by COMEX contracts"

Every time I read that it slaps me in the face. Keep stacking and only use play money at the carnival!

As many on this forum know, the main custodian of the silver ETF SLV is JP Morgan, who is also the major silver short at the COMEX. Who's backing who? What is backing what? JP Morgan is now the guarantor of JP Morgan! It's all just promises of promises of JP Morgan, one of the founders of the Fed! JP Morgan's silver held for the ETF cannot be audited, because in the SLV prospectus, it says they can use sub-custodians who can use further sub-custodians! In other words, not even JP Morgan really knows who has the silver that they are supposed to hold for the ETF! Thus, JP Morgan has already created the legal structure to avoid being held accountable!

Protect your labor. It represents your time. Time is money(not currency).

BillAuAg joe rocker
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:06pm

When all fiat goes to zero

To see into the future of the US dollar, all you have to do is look at other fiat currencies that went into hyperinflation. Zimbabwe comes to mind.

Zimbabwe, between 1993 and 2008 had inflation explode from 20% to 231,150,888%. Stores were abandoned and black markets grew to feed the nation. Native fiat was refused and other currencies such as the dollar were used in the black market. Gold flecks from local gold panning was an accepted currency.

What will happen when the world reserve currency collapses should keep you up at night. Look for starvation, disease, riots, war lords, slavery, virtually everything we elsewhere will grow into a violent reality here.

Gold, Silver, beans, rice, alcohol, gasoline, aspirin, tobacco, bullets, and bread will be a transition currencies for several months if not years.

Water from the tap will cease to flow, toilets won’t flush, lights won’t work, and bicycles will be precious until a stable currency is established.

This is not the world I wanted to hand off to my children, but there it is.

I know this is depressing, but face it now and survive or join the mobs wandering in search of food.

Other recent examples:

Argentina: https://financialcrisisaftermath.com/the-instability-scenario/lessons-from-argentinas-hyperinflation/

Yugoslavia: https://www.rogershermansociety.org/yugoslavia.htm


Zoltan
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:10pm

It's Like Deja Vu All Over Again (Yogi Berra)

Please heed the Turd's warning about a repeat of the May Silver Massacre.

The game plan worked like a charm to drop silver by 20%. I expect them to "get" Ghadaffi, hike margins on Sunday night and watch gold drop like a stone into the closed LBMA session. Speculated about this in the forum but the more I watch the more I feel like we are headed for a repeat.

The Bernank has done his part already, already a hint of another margin hike from ZH, Gold gets monkey hammered and silver drops in sympathy.

Hang on to your stack but be forewarned about what may be in the future.

Z

JMHO as always do your own due diligence.

Jasper Puddlemaker
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:13pm

Martin Armstrong on gold (again)...

Another gold-related one put out last night. Gold seems to be on his mind the last few days.

https://www.10sigma.com/files/Plunging%20Gold%2008-25-2011.pdf

Shill
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:14pm

So another words TURD is

So another words TURD is saying use discretion when you say:

  • Shit
  • Piss
  • Fuck
  • C**t
  • Cocksucker
  • Motherfucker
  • Ti*ts

And please by all means lets refrain from calling Blythe a pedantic, pontificating, pretentious bastard, a belligerent old fart, a worthless steaming pile of cow dung, figuratively speaking.

Thanks for the Update TURD, I feel better now. Your humble servant.

Shill :)

silver foil hat
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:15pm

maybe you should

And I would expect that the silver CoT be basically unchanged in its forecast as the rise Monday was negated by the drop on Tuesday. As a reminder, the past 6-8 weeks of silver CoT reports have been very bullish.

MonkeySmoke
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:16pm

@ Holy Avenger

The new PAGE, I believe is a game changer. When Andrew McGuire was interviewed on KWN a few months ago, he discussed the 320 million accounts in the database that goes live when PAGE opens. If there is 1/10 of 1% of the 320mm that buy a contract for either gold (10 ounce contracts) or silver (50 ounce contracts)--both numbers represent exactly 10% of the CRIMEX contracts--that would mean 3.2 million new contracts. With the contract levels 10oz gold and 50oz silver--currently both are approximately $17k to PURCHASE a full contract--any one of us Turdites could purchase one of these contracts. Between my wife and I we could purchase one of each and never even miss the funds and we are broke!!! What impact will PAGE have on the market in the first two months? I believe it will be HUGE. Mints are running out of silver and gold--US Mint has stopped selling numismatic collector gold coins and a mint in Australia announced this week they will be unable to offer silver coins until April 2012. Where is the metal going to come from? I am in same camp as Eric Sprott in reading all the very large scale growths in physical metal purchases; in asking where is it coming from? An article released earlier this week stated that India is on track to purchase 1000 tons of gold this year!!! That combined with Hugo's gold, accounts for a cool 50% of WORLD production for the year, not to mention the recent purchases by S Vietnam and Thailand and let's not forget Mexico who purchased 93 tons. Soooooo, where is the gold and silver coming from that will be purchased through contracts on PAGE? There are not that many wedding rings, necklaces and bracelets left on the PLANET for people to recycle--how long has the "We buy gold" bs been going on now? 3-4 years? How much more of "Grandma's" gold and silver tea sets be left? My guess is, not very much---remember, greatest transfer of wealth. Now the people do not even have "Grandma's" silver tea set to sell, as they were all sold in April 2011 for $47-48oz.

bern
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:16pm
argent rampant
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:19pm

Timpa, joe rocker, Holy Avenger, et al ....

You may have read "When Money Dies" as did I. On the cover is a photo of paper currency being swept up in the street like trash. I don't know that that will ever be the fate of the USD. I know all fiat currencies historically have ended up worthless, but I think people will continue to attach (diminishing) value to the USD for a long time.

Also, consider that we have never in history had a situation where the money supply was almost entirely "predicated" as opposed to physical. Bank accounts, amounts on corporate balance sheets, LOANS (including bonds), derivitives, even stocks, exist almost exclusively in the electronic realm now. I think this is very much like the fable of the emperor's new clothes. People believe, ergo everybody agrees that the money exists. But what happens when they suddenly stop believing? This is essentially what happened in the 2008 liquidity/credit crisis. If nobody wants your "troubled asset" credit derivitives, then they have no value and in effect those billions or trillions of dollars, euros, lira or whatever, cease to exist. When loans are written down or written off, that "money" ceases to exist. This is the deflation bogeyman that BS Bernanke is so afraid of.

Also, the vast majority of the dollars that compose today's money supply are not in the possession of people on main street. They are "held" by the world's banks and less than 1% of the population. I don't know if those dollars will ever show up on main street.

I am not saying that inflation isn't happening, or that it won't get worse. I do believe the USD will cease to be the world's reserve currency and that PM's will go MUCH higher. I want to have physical PM in small denominations when TSHTF. However, the USD may never lose all it's value, nor do I think we will see paper currency in the streets like on the book cover. JMHO.

TexAsh
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:22pm

Keep yer eyes open

I think the margin hikes of April/May placed silver in undeniably stronger hands and silver has been consolidating while gold tested historic highs and pulled back, but only slightly. Economically, I don't see any bearish indicators for gold, and silver has been building up to the next jump for weeks. Bernanke's speech was a dud; out of play. I can't see anything Irene has to offer that could possibly diminish a bullish outlook for the money metals.

That said, we never saw a black swan the likes of the margin hikes that coincided with the announced death of OBL, so it could happen again, but more likely with gold than silver. Since Beranke's non-speech, I've taken long positions on both the yellow and white. But if I reach a quick 10% profit before today's close, I'll cash that in and hide & wait for another slow, fat rabbit to appear late Monday or early Tuesday. However, I'm content to hold Dec/Jan positions for the next several weeks.

backseatdriver MonkeySmoke
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:24pm

Downright Sad

There was a article done in our local paper, Im in the Northwest. Pawnshops and LCD are raking it in. You are right MonkeySmoke. The saddest part of this local article was when they quoted 3 families. The families said they were selling their gold and silver not just because it was at record highs, but so they could help out their children and grandchildren buy clothes and school supplies. Now what do they have? Makes bad thoughts run through my head on what I would like to do to the Fed.

LongGoldLongSilver
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:26pm

Nice One!

Gold did a perfect retracement down to support.

https://www.economicfreefall.com/

Holy Avenger
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:30pm

More on Pan Asian Gold Exchange

After a quick glance at the PAGE home page, it becomes clear for those new to the PM game how important gold is to Asia.

They get it. We are in a currency war. The ultimate weapon is gold. They have it, they want it, they want more of it, and if and when they have enough of it, they will launch the nuke that destroys paper gold.

For your edification, please review the "About Us" section:

https://www.pagold.net/List.asp?C-2-1.Html

coolmonk TF
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:31pm

Where are you a buyer of silver?

Hi TF, thanks for all you do, I might have missed it, but wondering when you are a buyer of silver again?

coolmonk

eyeswideopen
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:32pm

4Hr/8Hr silver RSI

Could be a nice set up for the hooligans going into Sunday night/Monday. Holiday AND low volume Monday due to the storm.

We all know algos don't sleep. They need silver down. Silver is the stake through the heart. WB and the 36 thing too.

Is that 60 calendar days or trading days?

Can you sense their desperation? Financials sinking, along with their precious fiat stacks.

Reap the whirlwind JPM!!!!!

Chilton says possible action soon in manipulation case.

What ever happened to the class action vs. JPM & HSBC from last fall? Is this what he speaks of ?

A bit of a leg down does set up a nice head and shoulders? Take down to lower BB, then a nice uptrend mid week (with or without CFTC action). Heaven help em if that news breaks.

I've been watching 38.80 for quite awhile now. 37 I dare say?

Missed my shot at 34 to back up the truck. Same plan now as then. Liquidated some assets and dry powder ready. I've got an itchy trigger finger. I'll take action sometime this coming week. Sept. spike? Seasonal chart says so. We'll see.

Watched the storm pass me by from my little ocean front town. Some nice wind and a little rain.

It's now our time (Sept.) to watch the Weather channel in between the Big Guy's updates. Ha!!

My storm panels are deployed. Veteran of a few CAT 2's

I'm thinking of all of our N'Easterners here. Many here are with you. It's the water, not the wind that is the real danger.

Peace everybody.

PS.. Thanks Eric O. Hams cost Walgreens 73 cents. Raided my 3 local stores and grabbed up 30. Sales repeat bout every 3 or so weeks. Now I need some bacon!!

Boardwalk
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:34pm

Bralorne Mines

Eric,

Did you see the volume in BM.V today? ~10x normal and the day isn't over yet. UP 3.7%. I wonder if it's a delayed reaction to Monday's drill results, or maybe front running new information yet to be released?

Shill
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:34pm
Shill
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:36pm
argent rampant
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:37pm

@Shill

I like you and you make a lot of valuable contributions to this forum, but you did yourself a big disservice with your last post. IMHO, you would be wise to consider deleting it. Up to you, of course.

survivalwstyle
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:39pm

using advice from one of mrF's friends on this

as to the way we should conduct ourselves here. i like to think this site is unique. not sure if this link is a violation of copyright, got it from youtube.

"stay claSSy"

Video unavailable

to the market, i have said $50 Ag by 9/11. this is of course just my personal opinion as we wiLL nEEd a break out close above 44 next wEEk to get there. maybe it is 11/9.... i get my numbers mixed up aLL the time ;o)

today's spEEch was a total waste. this monday LBMA holiday has me concerned. May is not erased from memory yet. if we get a waterfaLL i wiLL of course be there to BTFD. to that point i am watching the spot close today. if we get down below 40 i wiLL be back on the niBBle this weekend, these last 4 days have i have made a serious dent in my paper stash. trying to save some dry powder for what comes next. paper payday here is wednesday thank gOOdneSS, hope we get a few more chances yet to own Ag under 40...

enjoy your wEEkend w/ family and friends doing things you love. 3pm sunday here on the west coast the EE should be out in fuLL force.

surf is waist to chest, lOOks fun on the internet. taking out the 9'2" iron croSS now and geTTing wet. like i said, best place to clear your head.

aLL the best


Aug 26, 2011 - 12:41pm

@Cleburne61 re: Blythe

Cleburne61, while your anger at Blythe may be justified, some folks have been going a little too far with the online Blythe lynch mob. We had a thread here that started out as commentary from guys who were debating, basically, whether they'd want to have sex with her despite her being "evil." Then someone crossed a line and posted what was basically a hate-filled rape fantasy about her. Fortunately, it wasn't too graphic but it was enough. (The comment was removed, BTW.)

That sort of stuff has no place here or really anywhere on the Internet. It's not only crossing a line but it's offensive to the many good women who frequent this website.

If you say you are a Christian then you know it's not your place to judge others or exact revenge on them. If you are not a Christian, well, I'd suggest that the best way to respond to evil is to try to be the better person. Resorting to violence or threats of violence is the act of an unintelligent animal - not a better human being.

PS On the subject of forgiveness, check out the website of the former "Son of Sam" serial killer David Berkowitz, who now calls himself "Son of Hope." He's found a new mission as a chaplain at the church in his prison. If he can redeem himself even Blythe Masters may have a soul:

https://ariseandshine.org/

SolarRave
Aug 26, 2011 - 12:43pm

Yo Dude... Turd, you Rock,

Yo Dude... Turd, you Rock, Man!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for sharing your insights on this amazing site.

cpnscarlet
Aug 26, 2011 - 1:22pm

Weekend Safety

Like many of you, May is still a strong memory and the timing of speeches, holidays, and market conditions are somewhat similar. I decided to sell some gold and one silver position to up my cash to about ~16% from 12%. Not a big deal, but still some dry powder just in case.

My biggest dilemma at times like this is Santa's call to Be Right And Sit Tight. That can be a tall order even to someone who's been in gold since 1988.

bolweevil
Aug 26, 2011 - 1:24pm

http://www.redchip.com/visibi

https://www.redchip.com/visibility/conferencePages/virtualconferences/virtualmainConference.asp#

may have been posted before, sorry if this is the case, teleconference with Great Panther Limited. Yes, I am talking my book. Enjoy your weekend. vive l'Turd!

Shill
Aug 26, 2011 - 1:25pm

IMHO, you would be wise to

IMHO, you would be wise to consider deleting it. Up to you, of course.

No I will not delete my last post, if you can't grasp the humor in it I'm sorry. TURD said to Tighten it up a little, not turn the place into a stuff shirt joint.

Respectfully

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