Ahead of an Interesting Weekend

413
159
Fri, Aug 26, 2011 - 10:34am

Well, don't you wonder what the world will look like come Monday? So many unpredictable events are coming that it makes the job of being Turd significantly more challenging. However, The Turd is up to the task and willing, once again, to attempt to predict the unpredictable.

First up, the short term. As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens. As The Turd's old man used to say: "Do you know what motel spelled backward is? Let om". In this case, that logic applies. Let the buffoons spout all the bubble and top nonsense that they want. It doesn't matter. The metals are still going significantly higher before year end and none of the top-calling douchebags will be held accountable for being wrong anyway.

For today, I predicted yesterday that gold could see 1790-1800 and that silver could see 41.80-42.20. Upon further review, I'd like to refine those numbers just a bit. Now, we may have already seen the highs and they are both close enough to those targets that they may not trade much higher. Gold touched 1798 and silver tapped 41.34. I don't think silver will trade much higher than 41.50 today but it could still reach up to the goals stated yesterday. Gold, on the other hand, still could see some upside. IF it can trade through 1800, it has a decent chance of making it all the way to 1820 or so. If it does, I will be looking to lighten some Oct calls before the weekend.

That said, the long term picture for both metals remains quite positive, regardless of the nonsense you hear on financial TV. Both of the charts below are very instructive and I plan on updating them frequently in the coming days and weeks as I believe they represent the true picture of what to expect for future price movements. Note that silver is in a very nice up channel. This is much appreciated as it is something that takes much of the complication out of trading. Gold, on the other hand, has a chart formation that you rarely ever see. Let's call it a "reverse pennant" and it is indicative of an uptrend that has an increasing level of volatility. IF this trend continues, we can use this chart to make a lot of fiat as the swings up and down are only going to get wider.

I'd like to close today with a couple of housekeeping items.

1) Civility. Please remember that we are trying to build a place here that is unlike other internet sites. We treat others the way we want to be treated. This leads me to...

2) The goal of this site is to help and educate as many as possible through our collective experience and wisdom. The site is used by people ranging in age from 13-93. If you would be uncomfortable using certain language, innuendo and images around you daughter or your grandmother, then don't bring it here. Use discretion.

3) Try to take it easy on poor, old Blythe. During work hours, she may be a heartless shrew who takes pleasure in the blatant manipulation of the metals. In her personal life, her bio paints a portrait of someone different. I guess my point is: It's beneath us to deride her with nasty slang on her personal sites. Let others do that if they feel they must. We here should be more concerned with surviving the disaster that is most assuredly coming.

4) I do, from time to time, delete things. This is not censorship. Censorship is an impairment of your right to free speech in the public arena. This is not a public arena. This is my website. I own it. I decide what gets viewed and what stays posted. That said, I've only deleted a handful of things in the first 60 days and most of it was copyrighted material that could not be allowed to stay.

Finally, be very careful as we head into the weekend. The current pattern in gold is frighteningly similar to the pattern of silver back in late April. The Sunday Night Massacre followed the first margin hike and occurred during a thinly-traded Globex session the preceded a London holiday. Gold has now seen two margin hikes and this Sunday's Globex session also precedes a London holiday. Throw in the fact that many market participants will be MIA Sunday evening due to what looks to be an ongoing hurricane and you get an almost ideal setup for the criminal C/C/C to unleash Sunday Night Massacre II. Not sayin...just sayin.

Have a great day. I'll try to update after the close. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  413 Comments

olderman
Aug 26, 2011 - 10:59am

Words from Santa

"For heaven’s sake stop barfing into weakness. Stop selling weakness and buying strength. That is a kindergarten type error."

One of these days, and soon, TFmetalsreport will go from 15000+ hits per day to 50000+ hits per day. Many, many thanks TF for all you do to educate this community.

olderman

terri5125
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:00am

to buy (physical) or not to buy

that is the question...

Hoping to learn timpa
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:04am

New Fiat

I believe history shows that a new fiat eventually rises that is tied to a more consistent value recognized by the masses. Current value of gold at the time will work quite well for those who are stacking.

Hang10-Hawaii
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:05am

So just how is Bernank-houdini going to do it?

Been giving this a bunch of thought over the past few weeks, and it's still not clear to me how Bernanke is going to keep the US Treasury's coffers filled with Benny-bucks. Today's speech didn't offer anything compelling beyond ZIRP for the next two years.

Here are the rough facts about Federal spending and revenues:

* Spending ~ $3.8T

* Revenue ~$2.3T

* Deficit ~ $1.5T

* Outstanding Fed debt ~ $14T

As we know from the recent debt ceiling soap opera, there is no relief on the spending line. The revenue line will remain unchanged absent some dramatic economic growth and/or draconian tax increases (not gonna happen), - so no relief there. That leaves the deficit at something north of $1.5T each year for the forseable future.

My question is: "where is that money going to come from?"

Our foreign creditors are about done lending to us. The public is too broke to lend to the government. That leaves the Fed as the only option to print money to put into the Treasury. There are basically two ways that can be done: 1) out in the open a-la QE2, or 2) off the radar, but how???

I'm leaning towards the second option. I'm trying to figure out how to trade this fact. Clearly over the long term the money will end up flowing through the Treasury into the market and driving inflation and PM's higher, so buy & hold remains unchanged.

What I can't figure out is if there will be ebbs and flows that we can use to trade.

Any thoughts?

surfeitndearth
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:05am

Thanks Turd

I nominate you for the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval!

joe rocker timpa
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:05am

curious Submitted by timpa on

curious

Submitted by timpa on August 26, 2011 - 10:46am.
Hat Tip! 2

Give me a little insight here please. When all fiat goes to zero just what will the mode of exchange ultimately be and will gold and silver maintain the value they have climbed to. I know this may sound like an absurd question, but I'm curious as to other opinions of the future...yours too Turd. I never had any plan to exchange my PM's for fiat, so just where will we be, what will this all lead us to?

The thing is...the paper money value goes to zero and people will USUALLY (always have in the past) accept silver and gold as payment.

Ranch
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:06am

What to expect now???

Margin Hike still a concern? No QE3 till September...concern? Are we still looking for another dip later today and early next week? Just curious what everyone thinks givens this mornings news and activity?

bensgone
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:06am

MASSIVE GLOBAL FIAT-GOLD WAR LOOMING

Clearly we are witnessing the unfolding of a gigantic world war between the PM's and the global fiat monetary system. You must think on those terms to understand the magnitude of the power of the EE to suppress the PM price for god knows how many years. Scottj presented evidence that this war goes way back when the U.S removed silver as part of the bi-metallic standard causing a depression, because then EE held most of the gold and did not want monetary power in the hands of the people. This was done at the behest of the Rothschild proxies here in the U.S.

Right now we are seeing this battle take on monumental significance and proportions as more and more people wake up to the massive global fraud of fiat. This is why the stakes are so high and becoming more and more intense each day as the forces of fiat darkness take on the multitudes of the earth's inhabitants who now attempt to protect themselves from the inevitable collapse of all fiat worldwide. Even central banks in countries large and small see the writing on the wall and are buying up both gold and silver to bolster their reserves in preparation for the coming storm.

There is an old saying which states, "Never bet against the FED". I say you better bet against the FED with gold and silver, or you are dead! These gigantic forces are tugging against each other causing increasing volatility and gyrations of the prices and volumes unlike anything I have seen before. It's not just JP Morgan who is the the prime enemy of the PM's, but every central bank in the world, every fiat currency, and every elite who benefits from this corrupt evil financial and monetary system. So, when you buy physical PM's to protect your wealth, you are in effect betting against the entire global financial system and every aspect of the hierarchy that keeps this rotten system from imploding.

pbreed
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:07am
question
Aug 26, 2011 - 11:12am

Turd; Class Act Sir!

Kudos for raising it up a notch. Honored to be here.

May all find shelter from the storm here (metaphorical and physical).

Peace

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

by Alex777, 2 min 11 sec ago
by Angry Chef, 13 min 46 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 16 min ago
by lakedweller2, 1 hour 29 min ago

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 2 hours 14 min ago
by Solsson, 7 hours 40 min ago
by HappyNow, 9 hours 4 min ago
by SteveW, 12 hours 25 min ago
by Green Lantern, 13 hours 14 min ago
randomness