Looking Better

Thu, Aug 25, 2011 - 2:28pm

As predicted (hoped), both metals found some buying today after a successful test of overnight lows. Silver consistently found buyers near 39 which is right near that upsloping trendline on the 6-hour chart. Gold triple-bottomed at 1705 and has since rallied almost $60. I'd expect these rallies to continue into tomorrow. But, what happens next?

All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe The Bernank will announce a new, massive $2T money-printing scheme to match the new debt ceiling. If he does, you can forget all about the H&S top stuff as it will be off to the races, instead.

Remember, if you're going to survive trading the PMs, you always have to sell some when everyone is buying and you always have to buy some when everyone is selling. You had an opportunity to buy earlier today. You will likely have another opportunity next week. Of course, "sometimes the only winning move is not to play." That's OK, too. Just keep stacking the physical and enjoy the fireworks. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 25, 2011 - 2:31pm


From ZH


Thu Aug 25 13:54:57 2011 EST

As a result of the continued volatile trading environment, please be advised that exchange margins and/or house margins are likely to increase overnight and over the next couple of days, particularly in the metals. For exchange specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly.

Aug 25, 2011 - 2:33pm



Aug 25, 2011 - 2:34pm

I've been mentioning lately

Thanks for the update Turd, don't know if you read about the upcoming margin hikes.

I've been mentioning lately that there would be convergence again between silver and JPM stock. Ignored by many, but with JPM stock below $36, you know where you can expect the BTFD or the stabilization.

I've been highlighting the importance of Monday, LBMA closed, which means less liquidity in the markets and more volatility. Additionally Bernanke speech on Friday, where he won't announce QE3, rather Operation Twist2, another reason for the EE to smash the price even more.

Also, the latest interview of KWN with Peter Schiff here and latest Keiser's report:

Keiser Report: Myotonic Markets (E176)
Aug 25, 2011 - 2:34pm

154 silver....from the end of previous thread

I find myself unable to stay out of this...

Thousands of Turdites must be careful what they post so as to not offend you??

That smacks of the TV censorship that used to exist because people could NOT be bothered to change a channel if they did not like the content of a particular TV show!! I have seen more "porn" on Two and Half Men than on this blog!!

Americans find themselves in a position of NOT BEING able to stand up for themselves and it is one of the MANY things bringing this great country to its knees...IMO!!

No one should be caught up in profiling because we might offend someone or some group. Yeah right, it is better to let them fly jet airplanes into the Twin Towers and kill 3320+ innocent people than offend someone.

Change the channel or move on to the next post if you don't agree with the content.

Peace, Out

Aug 25, 2011 - 2:35pm
Aug 25, 2011 - 2:37pm

Another Margin Hike Coming...

Per ZH, Interactive Brokers is again expecting a Margin Hike from the crooks. Tie the next hike in with Uncle Benny's speech on Friday and we should have one more chance to buy on the dip!

Captain Silver
Aug 25, 2011 - 2:38pm

They must read the Turd!

Out comes this post, and again with the margin hikes. Proof the EE reads the Turd and he gives them nightmares.

Captain Silver
Aug 25, 2011 - 2:38pm
Dr G
Aug 25, 2011 - 2:39pm

reposted from last thread

re: the margin hikes. Amazing. Un f-ing believable.

Can they just raise the requirements to 100% cash/no leverage so we can all get on with our lives already. And to that point, we know why they don't do that. If they did, then they are done. All their bullets would be spent.

And isn't their use of the term "volatility" always a joke? You mean that which was caused by the margin hikes, which necessitated additional margin hikes? Yeah, that stuff.

Aug 25, 2011 - 2:41pm

TRX and NSU to the woodshed

Something is up!! I use NSU as my "forwarding looking" gold price guidance. This latest move to LOD has me wondering if gold is about to get wacked again...margin hike announcement may have done it!!

TRX...not sure what to think about that...

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
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8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
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7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

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