Wed, Aug 24, 2011 - 9:52am

In what can only be considered option expiry shenanigans, a pleasant overnight was abruptly ended by the monkeys and the algos this morning as trading opened on the Comex.

Check out these amazing charts below. They are like chalklines left on the ground at a crime scene. The gold Comex opened on schedule at 8:20. Note the the first five minutes were actually positive. Then, as soon as the silver Comex opened at 8:25, the wrath of God (or Blythe) was brought down upon the gold pit. Gold was smashed for $20 in 20 minutes. Silver hung in there for 6 minutes before succumbing to peer pressure. It proceeded to drop a full dollar in 15 minutes. Selling in both pits climaxed at 8:48.

Again, this is no coincidence. Someone or something wanted out of gold this morning and was convinced to hold off on hitting bids until the silver Comex opened. With option expiry tomorrow, The EE will use every trick available to suppress price. Harvey mentioned last night that he thought the target of EE affection was the $42 level in silver. He may be right. I mean, look at this chart and look where the price was when the beatdown began.

So, if there is a direct, coordinated, manipulated takedown going on (and I think there is), what would be the goal?

After all the fear and hysteria yesterday, there were no margin hikes last night. In the end, I guess that's not surprising. Remember, the C/C/C uses volatility as their excuse to raise margins. Plant a few rumors around that margin hikes are imminent and you get an $80 selloff. How about that? There's the volatility the C/C/C needs in order to execute their diabolical scheme. I wrote on Monday night that I expected the criminals to time their next hike in order to get the biggest "bang for their buck". Optimal timing would still be Thursday or Friday, ahead of the assuredly "disappointing" Jackson Hole Hoedown. Another possibility would be to wait for Monday and use the weakness and volatility that a Hoedown letdown would create. Either way, I still think that gold margins are going up and that prices are going down, at least in the very short term.

So, Turd, what do you expect then? Let's see if, by later today, gold can trade down to initial strong support near 1820. It would take silver down with it, let's say to somewhere near 40.50. At that point, Blythe takes her stilleto off of our collective jugular and let's prices rise from the canvas. The metals rally the remainder of the week but in a muted sense. Gold recovers to 1840 or so. Silver bounces back 41.50-42. If the paragraph above then plays out, I could see gold falling next week all the way back to 1725-1740. This would be a near perfect 10% correction from the highs of Monday night and it would set the stage for the next leg up.

Silver would be taken along for the ride, of course. If you look at the chart below, you can clearly see that a drop to 38.50-39 is entirely possible. Again, this would not indicate the end of the world. It would, however, give us all an excellent point at which to begin building or rebuilding positions.

Let me wrap up with this disclaimer. The above fairy tale is an attempt to predict the future. It should not be taken as seriously as "Turd's Bottom", "1600 by 6/10/10" or "44 by Labor Day". Instead, it is The Turd trying to make some sense of the current situation. It should either be treated as a short-term planning tool or simply as the entertaining ramblings of a delusional megalomaniac.

Have a fun day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 24, 2011 - 9:53am



Aug 24, 2011 - 9:55am


are scrambling hard now because truth is knocking at the door of justice... with a sledge hammer.

Knock-knock - who's there?

Shamrocks and Shenanigans - House of Pain!


Aug 24, 2011 - 9:57am

Broad Markets

You know the fix is in when the PM's get pummeled and the broad markets are rising on no real good news.

Aug 24, 2011 - 9:59am

Good Morning Turd!

Paradox... Your #1 And #2

Aug 24, 2011 - 10:03am

Downside to Go Before I Sleep

Definitely some downside to go here, wouldn't try to catch falling knives anytime soon. Will take at least a week to 10 days for this downleg to find a bottom, work the oscillators down towards oversold and then move up again. 240 minute sell signals came right about 43.2 in silver, and the daily stochastics crossed over there. The line in the sand will be right around 40.25 to 40.5. It will almost certainly bounce there. If it drops through there, then I think we're looking at the 50D EMA at 39.35 area, or even the 100D EMA at 37.4. 37.4 is an exact 15% correction from the 44 top. So if gold drops 10% to 1725, and silver 15% to 37.4, those are the buy areas. If we drop through there, then we may have some real problems technically, although I don't see the systemic problems resolving themselves in the long run.

Aug 24, 2011 - 10:03am
Aug 24, 2011 - 10:04am



Urban Roman
Aug 24, 2011 - 10:06am

Beware of Pigatha

Did I spell that right?

The other consequence of the MOTU meeting this weekend in East Buzzard Breath or wherever, may be that the dollar bounces next week. Dollar could bounce and stawks could head for the third sub-basement.

It looks, from these and from Jesse's charts, that the monkeys could pound Silver down to the lower trend line at 38 or so. I believe that is what they intend to do.

But it seems sorta doubtful that it will ever go back into the 20's, so those couple of rounds I bought in 2006 are still a sound investment, right?

Aug 24, 2011 - 10:08am

DAMN they are taking down the miners

right along with the metals...

Will the miners EVER de-couple from this madness in the metals??

One would think it was time for the monkeys to short the metal and go long the miners, but, NOOOOOOOOOO....


Aug 24, 2011 - 10:09am

DXY compared to gold and silver

Thanks to the TF for some projected trading ranges.

I find this manipulation to be very interesting.

Anyways, looking for the mega trend in the DXY vs. Gold and the DXY vs. Silver.

Is it just me, or do other people see the DXY making a pennant through out the last few months.

When I look at the DXY chart on the multi-year, there is a clear narrowing of the trading range and this seems to come to a point in the next 1-2 weeks. It's like the pennant is dragging on the ground. The gold price on the other hand seems to be rapidly escalating as the DXY pennant drags.

It's like the DXY is being propped up by valuation in gold and that if gold did not move up, then the DXY would have sank further. Is this the sign of bankers gold reserve being required to be valued higher in order to balance the ledgers at the banks?

I decided this morning to look at the DXY vs. silver also. Here's that chart with silver as the candlestick and the DXY as a line graph. This looks very bullish to me on silver. Any temporary pull back, especially to <40 will be a great buy. I suppose the real issue is whether or not they can hammer back to 37.50 range or if we stick around 40. Regardless... if I see 40 on my screen tomorrow morning or even later today, I'm considering adding to my long position.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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