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On Shaky Ground

131
Tue, Aug 23, 2011 - 3:48pm

 I feel like I must apologize for doing this to you. No sooner did I hit the "enter" button last evening on the previous update did the PMs begin to swoon. In hindsight, it's clear that last evening was when word began to trickle out.

Let's see...the dollar is down. Crude is up. Copper is up. The grains are up. The PMs are way down and have been beaten down in stages since last evening. Why? Let's just say the The Turd will be stunned...no, flabbergasted...if margin hikes in gold aren't announced before 7:00 pm EDT today. The way that today's selling has come in waves is entirely consistent with trading patterns from previous days where hikes have been announced. The criminal C/C/C lets a little word out to their friends in advance and down she goes! Not only are longs getting liquidated, they're getting turned into shorts for maximum gain. That's 2X selling pressure and more than enough to flatten anything in its path.

Considering a gold margin hike is a given at this point, the questions to ask yourself are:

1) How big of a correction is coming?

2) Could this end up being a "sell the rumor, buy the news" type of event?

I have a last in the Dec gold of $1830. The high last evening was 1917.90. (NOT coincidentally, the early evening Globex high on 8/11, right before the previous margin hike, was 1817.60. Almost exactly $100 lower.) This means we are already down about 4.6% from the highs! The correction after the last hike was almost exactly 5.001%. A 5% correction here would take gold back to 1820. Hmmm. That number sounds familiar. 1818 is the former high and should now act as support. A 10% correction would be about 1726. Wow, that's an interesting number, too. The low after that last margin hike was 1725.80. Whaddayaknow...

paper_8-23pmgold.jpg

The 1818 level really is pretty important technically so we need to see gold hold it there. I suspect that a greedy EE will jam it through 1818, though, and if 1800 fails, you're going to see gold trade all the way down into 10% correction territory. At that point, it would make for another compelling opportunity to get long again.

Silver's a different story, It's getting dragged back with gold today as the fast-buck HFT algos are quickly selling away the same silver they just bought back on Friday and Monday. I can't imagine it's getting its margins raised too, but, who knows? Maybe The Forces of Darkness will try to hit the daily double. We'll see. If the margin hikes are in gold only, then you'll likely see some recovery action in silver tomorrow. At any rate, I'd like to see silver hold above 41.70 for the rest of the day. I'd said just yesterday that the EE might get greedy and try to take silver all the way down to 41.50 and, if they did, 41.50 would be a "tremendous opportunity to buy". I still feel that way. Let's see how this plays out over the next few hours and into tomorrow.

paper_8-23pmsilv.jpg

OK, that's it. I've had enough of this for today. I think I'll head to the gym and burn off some stress. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  131 Comments

· Aug 23, 2011 - 5:53pm

Turd,

I don't trade, I stack. Even with two beat downs now I'm still ahead since November of last year. I am astounded that any of you who trade futures and mining stocks are making any money at all. To an outsider like me it looks like absolute chaos. You've got bigger ones--and way more money--than I.

It sure seem to me, though, that you hit far more often than you miss and in this environment that is success.

Godspeed.

Eric Original · Aug 23, 2011 - 5:54pm

If you are looking for a job, go to a coin shop. Those guys are running themselves ragged.

Seriously, I personally sounded out the situation today and might have to go and "work for the man" pretty soon. Could be pretty soon I won't be on the blog all day, but working at the friggin coin shop. They say they can train someone real quick in the jewelry and watches and shit, but a guy who knows gold and silver coins backward and forwards is worth his weight in.....gold! The owner said what they really need is an office manager. I said "I'm a CPA, does that help?" They looked at each other like they just won the lottery.yes

LongGoldLongSilver · Aug 23, 2011 - 5:58pm
SilverFocker · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:00pm

Looking back @ silvers rise, the stair steps were getting very narrow before May, then looking @ gold's rise you see the same. The treads get so narrow it causes a slide effect so it slide's to the previous support step.

I think it is healthy in this long term run regardless of what the real price should be. It only gives us more time to stack with less fiat, causing ever more PM's to be taken out of the system at a faster rate that will eventually end the manipulation once and for all........then hang on.

lostinspace Puck Smith · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:00pm

I agree Puck. It gives me much more piece of mind to buy and stack, rather then fight corrupt EE and get the dreaded call from Sally at the Margin Desk. I prefer to hit the casino and add/subtract values of 1 at the blackjack table. Counting cards can be hard if you have a fast dealer/too many drinks... but I have more faith in the Indian Casino, than the Wall St. Casino.

I guess they do have bigger stones than us smiley

exiledbear · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:00pm

I can talk your ear off when it comes to gold and gold trivia. 10 years stuck with this position tends to do things to your mind.

PM coins are definitely something I believe in, and there's precious little I believe in these days.

exiledbear · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:01pm

Volatility keeps increasing. We're now knocking on plus/minus $100 days in gold.

We don't have much time left. I suspect we might have until mid-September and then it's Germany in the 1920s all over again.

These exponential doglegs come on very quick when they do. One day, the grocery shelves are full, the next day, it's all gone.

silverbleve · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:02pm

The site was down for me for a few minutes too, it shows how addicted I am to this sweet spot you have made for us all turd, thanks again! My lady looked over a few minutes ago and asked "whats this new blog you are always reading now?" my answer was its the same blog as before it just has a new layout. Turd's the source folks!

@Eric O i was at my local dealer yesterday and have the same thing to report, everyone was selling, no one was buying (except for me) The dealer actually ran out of cash and had to start cutting checks to buy all the gold coming in. I was just there to buy my weekly silver but as I was browsing the goods several people came in to sell.

In paper trading I am actually enjoying this dip, if we get anywhere near my $1680 core gold position i will be looking to fortify and double down bigtime.

Good luck out there everyone!

Music Man · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:02pm

I just want to say that you're daily targets and projections have been amazingly spot on. I wish I had discovered you earlier. I held my positions last night and this morning based on your comments which I thought were more than reasonable and was planning to sell down today but missed the chance for the obvious reasons.

So no worries - it would have been difficult when to predict a margin hike any more exactly. It looks like investors may be expecting the Bernake to do QE 3 on Friday as well - but they may be disappointed.

Thank you - Great work.

Economical Disaster Eric Original · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:03pm

I put ads on craigslist for gold and silver and send it to the refineries..there is a $5 per gram profit margin (GOLD) they are making fortunes out there. Problem is, I have too many scary tails to tell that occur during the "meetings". Anyone care to partner up? I can make you some cash!

Ciscokid · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:05pm

Gold and silver picking up again.

exiledbear · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:07pm

Until I see the MSM urging you to buy gold. As long as the lines are all for selling the stuff and the MSM keeps urging you to sell, I'm sitting still and holding.

Mark my words, I told people when gold was $400 that $800 would be seen as cheap one day. I'm telling you now, that all those people who are selling will regret it.

I suspect that they probably won't buy back into the gold they sold, they'll prolly buy silver because it's "cheaper". Same sorta logic people use about stock shares, a split stock is more affordable now then it was before the split.

Eric Original · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:09pm

I've had this feeling for a while recently that we will be offered ​one last buying opportunity​ ​before this thing finally blows up for the last time. I'm not smart enough to tell you if it's 1830 or 1730, but it's here. Get your positions settled, and hang on tight.

This is one of BOG and ScottJ's favorites. I know, I know, it's a song of faith. But everytime I hear it all I can think is "people get ready there's a (precious metals) train a' comin'. Don't need no ticket you just get on board." It's time to get on board, people. The conductor is blowing the whistle. He's bringing up the step.

Video unavailable
lostinspace · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:11pm

You lost me at 9/11. The most ridiculous conspiracy theory is the official one. Don't want to get on a tangent, but when people call out "9/11 truthers" as nutters, I take offense.

Bugzy · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:11pm

A lot of effort to take Gold down to levels reached all that time ago and to wipe out all those hard fought gains....... We are only talking last Thursdays figures right?

Long term stasher.

You do not kick a dead dog - this dog is full of life and that is the only reason to kick it. I would be starting to worry if they actually left us alone to feast on the fiat carrion.

Just tells me that all is well with my stash.

Not a trader, obviously.

After the Storm · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:11pm

Some of us are just trying to ride this gold bull and preserve our wealth, NOT because we believe the "bogeyman" is out to get us but because we know how to add and subtract. We realize the debt levels are unsustainable and our leaders have believed and practiced stupid economic policies for decades, and now we will pay the price.

Riding this gold bull the last many years has been an education. Some of you guys worry me sometimes. I remember when I first started learning in 2004 or so. The sessions were like this on the internet/radio etc.

Segment 1- Macro analysis of gold and silver with John Hathaway, Rob Mcewen, James Turk etc. And I'm like wow that was really good.

Segment 2- Next Lyndsey Williams will be on to spend one hour telling us what he could have told us in 5 minutes, of info that Mr X elite has given him. I'm like, wow that was different.

Segment 3- Next The Webbot man will be on telling us what the "spiders" have discovered. And they have discovered that we will have an economic collapse in Nov. (every year). I thought ok whatever, when are we going to talk about the fundies of gold again.

Segment 4- next 911 truthers and how 911 was no accident. I thought ok dude, now you lost me. Good grief. Sorry folks.

Segment 5- How "they" control the weather...........Segment 6- how the full moon or astrology is affecting the market. etc. etc. 

Meanwhile back on earth, all you need to be able to do is add, subtract, and know history, to know to invest in Gold and Silver, ala Mike Maloney. There are real macro fundamental reasons to be invested here. You don't need to go all conspiracy on people to prove the case for gold and silver. IF WE WANT THE MASSES TO HEAR, UNDERSTAND AND PROTECT THEMSELVES, THE LESS OF THE CONSPIRACY STUFF THE BETTER. This stuff will freak them out. Sometimes it loses me and I am into gold/silver big time. I want people to hear what Turd and the rest of us are trying to say to them so they are helped. It would be MUCH more effective if we would present it in a less "freak them out" kind of way. Maybe some of what you guys say is true. Not the 911 junk but people do want power and greed is controling them causing them to do unethical things. Ok I get that. But if we want people, as in the average guy, to listen to what we are saying we have to present it in a way they can hear it. I think Turd's heart is to reach as many as possible. This would be a much better strategy to do that. Not even arguing whether you are right or wrong now, just saying it will be smarter to present it in a way that won't cause them to block it out immediatly, if we want people to hear and be protected from the storm that is coming. 

gryphongryphon · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:13pm

Maybe this affected gold today:
https://tinyurl.com/44ebe5f

The Shanghai Gold Exchange will raise margin requirements for its gold forward contracts for the second time this month to 12 percent starting on Friday, in a move aimed at curbing excessive risk-taking following the rapid rally in gold prices.

Economical Disaster lostinspace · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:14pm

Of course you were trained to believe in Main street news and your gubbernment. As you can plainly see the manipulations and fraud occurring daily how can you believe in anything they say without thorough investigation?

Tesla · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:14pm

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/23/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1909.0

1909.3

1824.6

-

-30.4

1858.3

456

895

SEP 11

1899.5

1912.8

1823.9

-

-30.6

1858.4

4,122

1,454

OCT 11

1896.1

1915.0

1823.8

-

-30.5

1859.2

18,923

30,765

DEC 11

1900.2

1917.9

1826.0

1859.6

-30.6

1861.3

362,124

369,460

FEB 12

1904.5

1916.2

1828.9

-

-30.5

1863.1

4,366

30,426

APR 12

1913.8

1918.1

1830.7

-

-30.6

1865.0

328

7,481

JUN 12

1912.8

1917.6

1832.6

-

-30.6

1867.0

445

16,239

AUG 12

1907.1

1916.2

1863.3

-

-30.7

1868.8

436

6,228

OCT 12

1922.3

1922.3

1840.4

-

-30.8

1870.8

21

4,184

DEC 12

1917.8

1934.6

1837.7

-

-30.9

1873.0

1,733

13,568

FEB 13

1926.7

1926.8

1891.3

-

-30.9

1875.1

71

3,120

APR 13

1929.6

1929.6

1926.3

-

-31.0

1877.5

6

338

JUN 13

1920.0

1920.0

1857.1

-

-31.1

1880.2

105

11,852

DEC 13

1944.4

1944.4

1888.0

-

-31.2

1891.2

269

12,526

JUN 14

1918.0

1918.0

1918.0

-

-31.3

1904.7

31

3,659

DEC 14

1925.0

1925.0

1925.0

-

-31.4

1920.4

26

9,954

JUN 15

-

-

-

-

-31.3

1940.4

45

4,780

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

-31.3

1963.9

-

3,562

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

-31.3

1988.5

12

28

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

-31.3

2016.9

-

1,165

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

-31.3

2048.2

-

40

Total

393,519

531,724

Last Updated 08/23/2011 04:30 PM

Tesla · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:14pm

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/23/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

43.955

44.150

42.290

-

-1.040

42.281

86

8

SEP 11

43.765

44.275

41.500

-

-1.034

42.291

94,655

33,364

OCT 11

43.955

44.175

41.635

-

-1.035

42.305

242

105

DEC 11

43.900

44.295

41.565

-

-1.035

42.330

36,890

55,713

JAN 12

43.120

43.750B

41.645

-

-1.035

42.336

41

130

MAR 12

44.160

44.270

41.700

-

-1.035

42.345

1,171

7,277

MAY 12

43.110

43.250

42.350

-

-1.035

42.335

37

2,300

JLY 12

42.960

43.290

41.775

-

-1.032

42.321

39

1,985

SEP 12

43.365

43.365

42.600

-

-1.028

42.293

66

331

DEC 12

43.790

44.190

41.535

-

-1.029

42.232

181

8,463

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

-1.029

42.203

-

2

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

-1.029

42.137

5

435

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

-1.029

42.091

-

35

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

-1.029

42.018

1

2,208

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

-1.029

41.903

-

6,587

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

-1.029

41.670

-

232

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

-1.029

41.543

-

1,201

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

-1.029

41.308

-

156

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

-1.029

41.153

-

504

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

-1.029

41.033

-

53

Total

133,414

121,089

Last Updated 08/23/2011 04:30 PM

exiledbear · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:16pm

They're not buying on the open market anymore - they're buying direct from the mines. In a sense, they're already doing what you're asking them to do, but they're doing it in a way such that nobody can front-run them. They're getting their silver and they're getting it at a discount. The rest of the world can front-run each other, once they've gotten theirs.

The Chinese are the kind of people who are very very savvy when it comes to doing business. Whatever deal it is they're offering you, you can be sure that somehow, they're going to screw you on it, or they're making sure that the deal is screw-proof for them.

Screw or be screwed - that's the Chinese motto.

Shill · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:19pm

I don't know at this point. This week is going to gray what's left of mah hair!

I hear that Tom. I am in it for the long run Tom, this time last year we climbed $16 in the GDX during the same time period.

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GDX+Interactive#chart6:symbol=gdx;ra...

You know Tom I can see a triple top there, and two very close double bottoms. I'll probably regret saying this Tom, but I think we are going much much higher. Notice the actual metals / paper markets sold off higher than the miners? Not saying we will not drop further that could happen as well. Buyers at the close gave me my direction, and if Benron gives the Market any hint of a stimulus Friday, miners could possibly follow the Market up and go in the same direction ( up ) if Ben fails and Volatility is the game we play, which is in our favor as well.

Cheers Tom

Marcus · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:21pm

If ever the markets close shop, you would make an awesome tarot card reader in Vegas, Turd, the way you slice, dice and dissect numbers. Good work!

I_ate_the_crow · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:23pm

At the risk of incurring some wrath, I'm going to chime in with a brief observation on chemtrails. I've never really studied the issue as I'm not sure anyone really knows what the real deal is with them but I suppose this article explains the usual arguments in case it wasn't posted in that thread a few days ago: https://www.infowars.com/scientists-admit-chemtrails-are-creating-artificial-clouds-2/

Anyways, I took this photo from my cell phone through my car window yesterday. These were the two thickest streaks but they were all over the rest of the sky and were blatantly visible because the sky was almost entirely blue.

This is the picture I took on my way home about an hour later (heading back towards the concentration of contrails in the first picture):

Weird.

Eric Original · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:25pm

If you've spent any time on my miner thread you'll know I have serious crush on the Cadillac Break in Quebec and Ontario. It's a little 120 mile stretch of road that has tons of gold, great infrastructure, and quick and reasonable permitting. Some of the companies along the roadside are: Kirkland Lake Gold, Richmont Mines, Wesdome Gold, Queenston Mining, Bear Lake Gold, Armistice Resources, Niogold, Yorbeau, Visible, Vantex, and Alexandria. Those are just the smaller ones. Bigger players are Agnico-Eagle and Osisko Mining.

In honor of this "crush" I named this tune the official tune of my miner thread. Not only for the "Cadillac", but check out the ​Big Yellow Hat!! I didn't know the Turd toured with the Boss!! Now I'm really impressed!

I'm just so excited about this buying opportunity that I can't sit still.....

Cadillac Ranch
Tesla · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:26pm

Gold: Looks like a hell of a lot of shorts piled in on Gold (10,414 contracts on a smash down day isn't new longs!).

Silver: Looks like the price drop was longs selling but short interest was NOT piled on top of that significantly at all.

This totally jibes with Turds assessment. Although if Gold gets crushed further (ie doesn't hold 1800) this could change very quickly I think. Just MHO

After the Storm · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:26pm

I want the masses to hear about gold and silver. 99% will tune it out when they hear that stuff. That is all I am saying. There have been very few threads without some of that kind of stuff in them. If you want to reach the masses that won't work. I do disagree on those things but that isn't my point. My point is one of strategy to HELP the most people. That is more important to me than being "right" and proving my "point'. I want people to hear. It is hard enough to convince them about gold and silver on their own merits. When I reco. Turds sight and friends and family read that kind of stuff they blow everything off. It gets lumped in together. Not the way to introduce people to the gold/silver community. Again my point is the best way to reach people. We can argue the issue another place.........

AgeApe47 · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:30pm

Long cues at the silver shop down here in Sydney. Buying.

Tom L · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:30pm

Excellent report. Having the volume numbers presented like that really does highlight just how crazy/desperate/manipulative the EE is and what lengths they will/have to go to put a pause in this market.

As I said earlier, they goosed the DOW, which helped put a floor under the HUI/XAU. Yes it sold off, but looking at it now, it didn't do so in a technically damaging way. At this point they are testing the breakout above 580... and barely survived. But, considering the HUI hit 579 at one point, to close above 583 is a small victory today.

I won't sleep well tonight, I can tell you that. I'm glad I got some money off the table. If there's a snap-back rally tonight and into tomorrow I'm selling more into it. I hope I'm not too late.

Ta,

tyberious · Aug 23, 2011 - 6:32pm

Why is it so hard for people to see that business men with similar interest get together and make plans? This is called collusion or a conspiracy, though it is also called crime is come cases. 9/11 was per the office of the JAG, a set up to hide trillions in illegal bonds and to set up the NWO!

see this https://www.scribd.com/doc/16970135/September-11-Commission-Report-Revised-December-2008

https://www.google.com/search?q=September+11+Commission+Report+Revised+D...

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