So, What's Next?

409
175
Mon, Aug 22, 2011 - 8:22pm

Sorry that I've been MIA most of the day. I've been spending a lot of time in thought, trying to decipher where we are going from here. This evening gold has charged through $1900 and silver has spent some time above $44. I feel I've got a decent handle on where we're headed, so, let's get started.

Let's begin with gold. It's moving almost straight UP and that is the type of momentum that is certain to garner the attention of our friends at the C/C/C. Many thought they were going to raise margins Friday. The specter of a margin hike kept gold in check all day near 1850. When Friday evening came and went without a hike, gold rallied today to make up for lost time. Since this afternoon has also failed to provide any emails from the C/C/C, gold is rolling again at present. However, don't be fooled. A margin hike is coming and the C/C/C will, undoubtedly, attempt to time it in order to get the biggest "bang" for their manipulative "buck". What better time than later this week?

Recall for a moment the pain and suffering from the late April and early May silver fiasco. The Forces of Darkness stood down and let silver run to a speculative "all-in" peak of almost $50...the psychologically significant, I might add, $50 level. Once everyone was sufficiently sucked in, the C/C/C dropped the hammer with 5 margin hikes in 9 days. As we all know, silver fell over 30% in the coming weeks.

Fast forward to present day gold. The C/C/C has already lobbed in one margin hike, just like they did in silver on Monday, April 25. They now appear to be letting gold run in order to, once again, suck in a lot of weak-handed, latecomers. And, just like silver in April, we are approaching an uber-significant psychological level...$2000. So, here's what I think happens next:

1) Gold, which is currently trading at $1912 as I type, is going to be allowed to run a little bit farther. It may slow a bit at Santa's next angel of $1936 but I think it may make it almost all the way to $2000. Maybe as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.

2) Then, the criminal C/C/C drops the hammer with a significant margin hike.

3) Gold sells off after the margin hike but hangs in there with a few speculators hoping and praying that The Fed will rescue them by announcing some new, dramatic quantitative easing program over the weekend.

4) The Fed "disappoints". No new overt QE. Instead, something like what is described in the link below will begin taking place behind the scenes. Still horribly inflationary but obscure enough to confuse the easily confusable.

https://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.17%20Bank%20Credit%20Repo.htm

5) Gold sinks like a stone next week, conveniently taking silver with it for a while.

You know that I like empirical data and patterns to buttress my opinions. These two charts do the trick:

So, the next question is, what happens to silver? In the very short term, silver looks great. In fact, now that we've eclipsed 44, I think it could soon trade as high as 46. However, keep in mind that September options expire on Thursday. The EE will likely be forced to retreat from their positions around 44 but they will certainly regroup at a higher level. Look for some resistance near 45. IF silver can get through there, it should have a very hard time dealing with 46. So, I expect a peak there, either at 45 or 46, before the EE caps things once and for all ahead of option expiry. IF I'm right about the coming gold beatdown, silver will be taken along for the ride next week. I would not be surprised to see it pull all the way back to 42 before basing and beginning its final assault on the highs from April near $50. Keep in mind that, by attacking gold, the C/C/C is unwittingly shifting the leverage picture back in favor of silver. Maybe not fully in favor of silver but at least they'd be leveling the playing field. In Q4, this will have the effect of driving more speculative longs back into silver and consequently give silver the juice to finally eclipse $50.

So, there you have it. Jeezo pete, I must be some kind of masochist. I finally put silver to bed and I jump right back into the fire by trying to predict the future again. Oh well. My buddy "Turdle" told me when I started this nonsense back in November that my real value was always going to be in "calling it like I see it" and not "pulling punches". Well, there you go. No punches pulled on that one. Now, keep in mind two things:

1) I could be wrong.

2) If you're ready to get out and sell your trading positions now, then do it. Don't wait around for the final uptick. Remember, "pigs get slaughtered".

That's all for now. Stay nimble and enjoy the fireworks. Thanks for being a part of this growing "community". TF

8:40 am EDT UPDATE:

As I rubbed the sleep from my eyes an hour ago, my first thoughts were of despair. After some coffee and some consciousness, I feel better. Gold is only down about $10 from where it was when I went to bed and silver is only off 30c. Big deal. In fact, the only thing we've seen is a continuation of the pattern we identified yesterday at this time. Gold sells off at 3:00 am EDT and begins to rally back at around 9:00 or 10:00 am. Here's a reprint of the chart from yesterday morning:

And now, here's an updated hourly and a 3-minute chart that shows the raid commencing at exactly 3:00. (Like Mussolini, the Wicked Witch may be ruthless but at least she makes the trains run on time!)

Predictably, silver was dragged along for the ride. However, it has once again held what is now support near 42.50. It has since rebounded back above $43.

Hang in there today but have fun. More after the close. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  409 Comments

olderman
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:50pm

feeding the turd

appreciate all you do

just fed you with fiat

olderman

DFCtomm Sneed Hearn
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:54pm

Congress & QE3

I realize that the FED is probably going to use more stealthy methods of QE this time around, but I am thinking of say a 1.5 trillion stimulus bill, since the last one was obviously too small. It was difficult to ram it through, and with the tea party reps it will be even harder this time, so they are going to have to gin up the fear to get the big push. It's going to happen since they need the economy to turn around for the 2012 elections.

paulindoon
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:54pm

Thnx TF

Yeah we all know that NO-ONE can prophecize the future in any persistent, accurate manner - that is unless one is a snake oil salesman and is trying to "pull the wool" over one's eyes

But our Turd is not one of them - far from it as a matter of fact. So in his fashion, what TF does is share his best reading as he sees it, with the rest of us.

Such a community TF has sprung & it has grown. Such humanity that takes directs to letting it fly as he sees it.

We are blest.

Thnx TF

silverstool
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:56pm

Thoughts on a cheeky Gold Put?

As gold approaches $2000, lock in profits or 'protective put'? If Gold follows history of silver may be a low risk trade? Thoughts.

llaettner
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:56pm

Daily STOCHRSI(14) at 100 technically OVERBOUGHT

And this has been the case since Aug 18th, there will be major correction within a week, longest prior streak was 7 days at 100 since the beginning of the year.

Save_America1st
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:57pm

Turd...just wondering...

My post of the gold/silver chart that I put up on the last thread...

I'm just wondering if I am starting to see what you're seeing...I posted a chart w/ a write-up before your latest post, and they are very similar. Am I starting to "get it"? Do I ever have a chance of seeing things the same way you do? I look and I look, but usually I never post any of my own so-called "analysis" because I'm totally not worthy of trying compared to you and most others on here.

But tonight I tried to post something I thought I saw, and crazy enough, it's somewhat similar to what you just posted.

As I asked at the end of my post, "any thoughts"? I was wondering if I was on to something. Hope I was...just looking for a little vindication for all the studying I've been trying to do since starting with all of this over the last 9 months or so.

I do sense a beat-down, but maybe at this point after what we've all seen, even Stevie Wonder could SEE it coming so I'm no different! LOL

Thanks for everything!

artaud23 Save_America1st
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:58pm

Blow Off Top

Yeah, I agree. I've been waiting for it for a few days now. I prefer to sit back and take pot shots at BankO'Merica until the stampede dies down. I figure they will get a 'get out of jail free' card towards the end of the week, around the same time that we begin basing in PM's. I am ready to get more Phyz.

llaettner
Aug 22, 2011 - 8:59pm

@Save

Your chart is scaling both peaks, there's no correlation. . . ;)

s1lentslayer
Aug 22, 2011 - 9:07pm

I'm already in the green on

I'm already in the green on the 1oz gold coin I bought Friday! I don't know whether to be happy about it or sad about our crappy economy.

Two Gun Tobin
Aug 22, 2011 - 9:08pm

The Mint is out of ASE

I visited my local coin shops today, and both of them said that they were getting no more deliveries of Silver Eagles from their suppliers. They were told, by their wholesalers, that the Mint was out. I know that the mint had issues with getting blanks to make them a while ago, but now? Both of them were reporting very good sales of what they had, 1,5, 10 oz bars, junk and misc 1 oz coins.

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