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Mon, Aug 22, 2011 - 10:37am

 At approximately 5:05 EDT, the Sep11 silver contract reached the $44 level. A few minutes later, it traded as high as $44.09. Thereby, another Turd prophesy has been fulfilled:


I'm just glad that's over with. I was in no mood to take another rash of sht from the losers at Kitco.

OK, back to business. The Forces of Darkness are in deep trouble in silver. This morning, silver is above all of its upwardly-pointing moving averages. This, when combined with the very friendly chart, is serving to bring all sorts of TA-oriented longs back into the pit. In a desperate attempt to contain the runaway, the EE predictably beat down silver in the wee hours of the morning. They were trying to close the gap on the chart from last night's open and they succeeded. Hurray for them. What did they accomplish? They're short a fresh boatload of silver contracts and the Sep11 is now back above 43.50. Whatever. Wait until tomorrow at this time. Or even Wednesday. I think we could see $45 before the shenanigans surrounding option expiry on Thursday begin.


As you can see below, gold has been subject to its traditional manipulation, as well. The seminal study of this phenomena was written by Adrian Douglas and it was posted to ZH about a year ago. If you have the time, I highly encourage you to read this:


In its present form, the manipulation discussed in the link above looks like this:


Like I said above, relax and smile. The PMs are headed higher today. Tomorrow, too. Gold came within a whisker of $1900 overnight. It will break that barrier soon, probably overnight tonight.

Have a fun day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


¤ · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:38pm

...and the trajectory looks like were still in the early 1970's.

Different times, different circumstances, but with all things being equal and just looking at it from this charts perspective it looks like we have a fairly long way to go yet. I think it will take 2 years or less but that's a wild guess. Anything is possible.

Chart courtesy of ZeroHedge.com via ShadowStats

Eric Original · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:39pm

How much longer do you think anyone will be able to buy a St Gaudens, any St Gaudens, ​for less than 2k?

Tom L · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:39pm

To add to your take on these two stocks, which I agree with, you have to learn to cut your losses. It's the biggest weakness I have in trading. It's the biggest weakness many of us have. I'm improving but there's still that tendency to want to 'be right, goddammit!' You may be right but the timing is wrong. You may just be flat-out wrong. 

Live with it and move on. I'm exiting my HL and SVM Sept calls by the end of the week or early next week regardless of where they are. It's the prudent thing to do.


¤ · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:42pm

Just closed a way OTM in Jan 12' for a small loss but that's ok. It got me back close enough to being even today and with the profit from my other GG sell earlier in the day I'll roll it all into GG $70 soon enough.

Going back in as much as possible on the $70 GG in Jan 12' when a BTFD happens at some point tomorrow or Thursday/Friday.

Lots of O/I in GG $70 in Jan.12'

rock collector · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:44pm

Earlier today I rolled out of my 2 Oct 2011 AUY $13 calls for $3.13 (paid $1.09 in March) and bought 2 Jan 2012 AUY $17.50 calls for $1.13. Pocketed $388 and also remain involved. 
Finally, AUY has broken free of being under $13 for so very long.

ewc58 · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:47pm

oh boy, Celente on Jones is angry!

But laugh heartkiss about gold!

Sorry if previously posted, here ya go:

Ben Davies: gold is money
¤ · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:47pm

A ounce of gold is a ounce of gold.

I bought a cleaned one from Apmex and I don't really care. It's worth more now then when I bought it and the one were talking about will be also at some point soon regardless of quality (to an extent).

$10,20, 30 extra won't matter in a week or two or three compared to to waiting for a BTFD that may or may not come and might not make much of a difference anyway.

jmho. I would buy the 1 oz. of gold if I had the cash available to add to my phyz at the moment if I could.

pheeseas ewc58 · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:49pm

ewc58 , the St. Gaudens is actually 0.9675 oz. of pure gold.

$20 St. Gaudens Type (Double Eagle) - 1907-1933 Weight: 1.0750 troy oz. (33.4370 grams) Fineness: .900 or 21.6 karats Diameter: 34mm Fine Gold Content: .9675 troy oz. (30.0933 grams)

Eric Original · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:49pm

I stand by the numbers I gave earlier. I'd even toss another $20 bill on the fire just to get my paws on my first Saint!

ewc58 · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:51pm

and completely correct. The St. G's are not a full ounce, was rounding off to make the point.

Ya got me! blush

terri5125 · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:52pm

Ginger and Maryanne-- why did you decide to go with optionshouse and do they also allow you to trade futures?

Eric- I see you are with TDameritrade...do they allow options and futures?

Finally has anyone purchased from GOLDMART.COM before - I am getting the runaround. 

Eric Original · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:55pm

TDAmeritrade: Options yes. Futures? I don't know...

FogHorn LegHorn · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:55pm

BOG ,I just linked over to read the fool and was struck by the gaul of that pinhead's "Title," of his post " In the lead" what a dork. He is the sole reason I won't read anything over a that site or ever purchase anything there.@TomL I couldn't agree more exiting an unprofitable trade and hedging gains, and paying Your Self, are some of the hardest lessons to learn. Throwing this type of info out there, for some newer investors is very important. Thanks T :)

Bay of Pigs · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:56pm

"In the Lead" with Jon Nadler

LOL. That's pretty funny if you think about it.

Really stupid for them to allow him to write anymore, let alone employ him as their head analyst. He was bashing gold well below $850. Nice call Jon. 

Chris Powell of GATA summed it up nicely to me recently. He said "Jon Nadler is irrelevant when it comes to gold".

margaritatime · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:58pm

@ Eric- Funny, I just had this discussion with a friend over the weekend.. Answer [mine that is], not long. And when you see them, they are going to be pricey. Same goes with fractionals.

The question I am wondering... How much silverware is going to be left after this year? Like everyone else, I see the muppets touting 'we buy gold & silver' taking unsuspecting people for a ride and giving them a fraction of it's value. Still they see those dollars and make the deal. 

Although I would piss off the people I do business with, sometimes I want to stand outside the door or in the parking lot and catch them before they go in. I could not consciously rip someone off, I would at least offer them spot. 

I watched a women selling her gold jewelry;

14k = 58% gold (fair enough), then a 20% premium for credit, or 25% for cash. So basically, they receive 25% of the spot price by weight for 14k. 

They know better than to pull stuff with me, but it is always interesting how dealers do business on different levels in direct correlation to one's knowledge.

Save_America1st · Aug 22, 2011 - 1:59pm

I had to go out for a bit...but I see my Double Eagle question sparked a bit of a debate. If I'm lucky I can still get it for 1936 unless I'm out-bid...

Save_America1st · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:01pm

guess I should also wonder if another beat down will drive gold down a couple hundo or so...I know it would still rebound...but just wondering....decisions, decisions...wink

Hang10-Hawaii · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:04pm

Just read this article posted by Barron's on Ron Paul's investment portfolio. The fact that Dr. Paul's holdings are nearly all gold mining stocks and some bearish index funds was characterized by the geniuses at Barron's as follows:

* Fortunately for Ron Paul and his army of gold-bug disciples, the "stopped clock" investment strategy finally seems to be paying off.

* Ron Paul's portfolio amounts to a super bearish bet against the U.S. economy. If the country had defaulted on its debt earlier this month, he likely would have made a bundle

* Paul's investment strategy is a financial planner's nightmare. Most pros say that gold-mining stocks should be a small part of a diverse portfolio.

* Etc.


I love it ! - the "pro's" call betting against the government's handling of the budget and monetary policy a "nightmare", and figuring that making the right call on hard money investments a happless "stopped-clock" type of win. 

More spin designed to throw the public off the scent once again.

Turd town is indeed a spot on the watchtower, as the "pro's" are totally missing the point (or not, and are actively taking the other side of their public comments). When it all comes down, the "pro's" will once again say "no one could have seen this coming..."

Except those of us on the watchtower. :-)

Tom L · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:05pm

I realized I had a problem with open-ended positions (ie. direct stock ownership) b/c I could always tell myself, "Well, I made money," after I'd held a loser for god-knows how fucking long; never once wanting to consider the time value of my money and/or Bastiat's Broken Window wrt my acct. balance.

Since moving to options trading I'm now so much more aware of the need to maximize time that I'm trading much smarter, even if it is still just as reckless (at times) as it was before. And I am a bit reckless. 

The fear of a call going to zero, coupled with the smaller amounts of money on the table for any 1 position has improved my attitude towards my trading and hence sharpened my focus and made me better for it.

It doesn't hurt that I made the switch right as Gold moved in a historic way. This is both a blessing and a curse, b/c the downside risk (though volatile) is low. I still have not learned how to properly play the short side of the market and I suspect that education will come at some point this fall.


Economical Disaster · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:05pm

..telling the truth on Alex Jones..WHOA

margaritatime · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:05pm

Gold content: 0.9675 oz

Total weight: 33.431 g

Comp: 90% gold / 10% copper

edit: sorry - didn't see pheeseas already addressed that - I need to get off the phone.. sorry.

Haole · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:06pm

... how a GoldMoney account is described for reporting purposes to "tax authorities"? I'm considering going over my Canadian reporting requirement in terms of my "holdings" and GoldMoney themselves has only told me to consult an accountant, to review their licensing and registration documentation and that they do not offer "tax advice".

Anyone that can offer any comments would be much appreciated, thanks very much.

zilverreiger · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:07pm

celente is a whining sourpuss, but yeah its entertaining

Economical Disaster zilverreiger · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:10pm

I guess telling the truth is whining? Hello? I have corresponded with him dozens of times, he's not a dumb man.

Shill · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:10pm
  1. 2:08p


    Gold settles at record $1,891.90 an ounce

Economical Disaster zilverreiger · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:10pm

I guess telling the truth is whining? Hello? I have corresponded with him dozens of times, he's not a dumb man.

Economical Disaster zilverreiger · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:10pm

I guess telling the truth is whining? Hello? I have corresponded with him dozens of times, he's not a dumb man.

ewc58 · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:10pm

To the rear.

Caution: Nadler in the grass!

Save_America1st · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:11pm

I guess it doesn't matter what happens now, cuz this guy cool<<< (that's me) just won the auction and snagged the golden booty! Hellz yeah, I'm stoked!!! thx Eric and all for the replies, info, moral support, etc. You all kick ass! yes

1976 Hat Tips to everyone!

Economical Disaster · Aug 22, 2011 - 2:11pm


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