B.S. in T.A. with a Minor in Miners

Sat, Aug 20, 2011 - 3:46pm

I don't know about you, but I'm beginning to feel an instinctual pull toward the miners. They have beaten down for so long that they finally just feel like they're ready to go higher. My gut tells me that, having reached a point where their relative valuation versus metal is several standard deviations away from normal (whatever that is), something is bound to happen. My brain tells me that prices, some of which have fallen all the way back to pre-QE2 levels, are bound to turn around soon. So, let's take a look.

Any discussion of the miners must begin with a look at the overall stock market because, at the end of the day, these are stocks we are talking about. Unfortunately for our bullish case, the S&P looks downright awful. Though fundos for most miners are improving with every uptick in the PMs, a falling stock market makes buying miners a bit like rowing upstream and a swift current can wash you away no matter how hard you are paddling.

That said, the HUI (gold miners index) doesn't look too bad. In fact, its at a point where it appears to be breaking higher. We'll know more in a week or so but, for now, keep a close eye on the 580 level. If the HUI can stay above there, base and move higher, it will create a favorable environment for most all of the mining stocks, regardless of their current technical picture.

Now, here's the kind of stock we're looking for. Note how Yamana struggled for the longest time to get through 13. Each time it tried and failed, the shorts were emboldened and more certainly joined the cause. Ah, but look what happened once it broke through 13! It based and used 13 as support before igniting a short squeeze that has driven it to 15.50. Pretty good stuff.

So, what we want to find are stocks that look like AUY but haven't broken through and taken off...yet. Below are four candidates. If the HUI holds 580 next week and you end up looking for a miner to buy, I'd start with these four or any other stock that has a similar-looking chart.

Now here are four that don't look so good. You can certainly nibble at these if you want and I'm not sure I would sell them yet if I'd ridden them all of the way down. However, if you're looking to buy, I'd stay away from these and any others you find that look the same.

Time prohibits me from giving you more charts but I think you get the picture. If you're interested in a stock not mentioned above, pull up a chart yourself. I think you'll find that it either looks like the first group or the second and it will then be clear to you whether or not it is something to consider buying.

If all else fails, just daytrade the UGL and the AGQ. Mister Hyde gave up on the miners about 8 weeks ago and has been trading these two ETFs exclusively ever since. He's made about 30% and is feeling quite pleased with himself. A word of warning, though. UGL and AGQ...particularly AGQ...are quite volatile and not for everybody, particularly the faint of heart. If you don't like the heat, don't go anywhere near the kitchen. In fact, stay out of the house completely.

In time, a portfolio of miners will treat you just fine. A little patience and a little homework will take you a long way. Good luck! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 20, 2011 - 6:18pm

Are U for real duck?

Your comment is so unsophisticated I'm hesitant to even respond, but in the event that you're being sincere and are just genuinely that ignorant I will.

Pump and dumps are done almost exclusively on penny stocks and stocks with minimal market capitalizations. If you think Turd, or anybody on this board is going to move a stock with 100's of millions - multi billion dollar market cap you shouldn't even be investing. Turd is simply basing his rec's on TA and the forthcoming surge in PM prices. Or, maybe you're right and Turd is responsible for the recent gains in Gold and Silver, as well as the global fiscal crisis, the european banking sector, massive overleveraged derivative positions, secret lending facilities from central banks, market and currency intervention on a daily basis, ad nauseum.

If Turd flashes a sell signal and you're in that stock, he's most likely doing you a huge favor and saving you some financial pain. Again, if you're a billion dollar hedgie who's moving these stocks with your massive trades then I humbly apologize and move onto why the fuck you're here asking stupid goddamn questions.

Tom L
Aug 20, 2011 - 6:25pm


Should only be in the first group if it can close above the 50 wk MA, which the EE defended like a dog on Friday. Finally showing good strength intraday, though, since the earning report and all during the market upheaval.

I prefer MFN to all of them though. Small float makes shorting a nightmare. Small daily volume makes it a thin/volatile market but b/c it's got such strong buying underneath it, they can't break it down. A break above $17 this week would unleash the good kind of hell. Also, not being in either index allows it to trade a bit more freely than the others.



Dr Durden
Aug 20, 2011 - 6:27pm


Oh please. That's Jon Lebed and his butt buddy that have been doing this for a long time. Google "pump and dump" and you'll pull up a Wiki with Lebed written all over it. Those guys are a couple of opportunistic douchebags trying to hide behind an "association." Lebed especially as he operates an anti-Shiff YT channel. Dude has nothing going for him other than ripping other people off and trying to steal someone else's followers. He should be back in jail blowing Bubbles.

Comparing the NIA with Turd is like comparing Nobama with Mother Theresa.

Aug 20, 2011 - 6:27pm

@duckwomanloulou NIA Pump and Dump

The short answer is a resounding NO. The major thing your missing is that Lebed and Adams are getting paid to pump a stock, while telling NIA members that NIA is completely unbiased and receive no compensation whatsoever. So NIA claims to be unbiased, yet the founders are paid (alot) through their other stock promoting companies (Lebed.biz and Wall St. Grand).

So until Turd gets paid through a proxy to tell all of us to buy or sell while claiming unbiased status, then we could equate the two.

So bottom line...... watch their movies, but don't buy their stocks.

EWS111The Vet
Aug 20, 2011 - 6:46pm

Dave T on GLD

This is great info. It causes me to think about a possible trade to make some fiat.

I would like others thoughts on the following;

SHORT GLD then use all resultant funds to purchase either CEF or PHYS. Trade would be neutral from a Gold price standpoint but if the Venezuelan Gold Repatriation causes a big problem with the GLD then it could be extremely profitable.

What do you think???

Economical Disaster
Aug 20, 2011 - 6:50pm

@cpnscarlet ..FUKUSHIMA

I have listened to all of the FUKUSHIMA vids, read umpteen reports, as everyone emails me them constantly, FUKUSHIMA is 10 times worse then any nuclear disaster know to man. Chernobyl created many diseases we see today including the MASSIVE cancer rate we see now. FUKUSHIMA brought us, in a few months, a 35% higher death rate for newborns across the west. SO FAR.

All our western seafood, lettuce, veggies, are radiated, our governments will NOT tell us this because most restaurants would close and our society would collapse, quicker...

Aug 20, 2011 - 6:57pm

Disaster and Rebirth?

Thanks Turd! I've been thinking of getting back into Orko Silver lately but your comments and "opinions" of Pan American have been really helpful. ;)

"Prepare for the Global Long Wave Extinction Event"

I thought this was pretty interesting not really knowing what some of it meant.

4th Turning stylie?


Aug 20, 2011 - 7:02pm

Thoughts of "Another"

I have been re-reading a series of e-mail messages from a person

named "Another" that were written during a period of October 1997

and September 1998. He seemed to have a profound knowledge of

world events that concern oil and gold. At Oct. 7 (his first message)

Gold was at $ 332 and Brent Oil was at $ 18.25



Some of it is above my head, but the way things are progressing,

he may be right....


The VetEWS111
Aug 20, 2011 - 7:02pm

EWS111 on Short GLD

The trade would work well if you could get CEF or PHYS for zero or negative premium a situation that occurred a few days ago, but if you are paying a premium for them it may be hard to make money especially if GLD managed to hold an even keel.

While GLD and SLV have held their link to the actual spot prices of metals CEF and PHYS have been a lot more variable. There is no mechanism with CEF and PHYS to lock them into the actual spot prices and they tend to anticipate moves in both directions and over react.

Don't take too much notice of people who say that GLD and SLV trade at a discount. Those commentators have failed to consider the effect of the ongoing costs built into the ETFs. All ETFs have costs associated with them and that gradually erodes the value, but in the short term it isn't significant.

Aug 20, 2011 - 7:12pm

I think she was just naive

so yes agree she is wrong but no need to pile on (re - NIA/pump and dump)

re/Another - read FOFOA (friend of a friend of another) at https://fofoa.blogspot.com/

re/radiation - the fear of radiation greatly exceeds its actual danger. Take a reading with a geiger outside your house or on your food yourself and video the results - lets see that, has anyone here done that to check? I looked they don't cost that much (not cheap, but if you were that worried you should have one)

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