B.S. in T.A. with a Minor in Miners

157
Sat, Aug 20, 2011 - 3:46pm

I don't know about you, but I'm beginning to feel an instinctual pull toward the miners. They have beaten down for so long that they finally just feel like they're ready to go higher. My gut tells me that, having reached a point where their relative valuation versus metal is several standard deviations away from normal (whatever that is), something is bound to happen. My brain tells me that prices, some of which have fallen all the way back to pre-QE2 levels, are bound to turn around soon. So, let's take a look.

Any discussion of the miners must begin with a look at the overall stock market because, at the end of the day, these are stocks we are talking about. Unfortunately for our bullish case, the S&P looks downright awful. Though fundos for most miners are improving with every uptick in the PMs, a falling stock market makes buying miners a bit like rowing upstream and a swift current can wash you away no matter how hard you are paddling.

That said, the HUI (gold miners index) doesn't look too bad. In fact, its at a point where it appears to be breaking higher. We'll know more in a week or so but, for now, keep a close eye on the 580 level. If the HUI can stay above there, base and move higher, it will create a favorable environment for most all of the mining stocks, regardless of their current technical picture.

Now, here's the kind of stock we're looking for. Note how Yamana struggled for the longest time to get through 13. Each time it tried and failed, the shorts were emboldened and more certainly joined the cause. Ah, but look what happened once it broke through 13! It based and used 13 as support before igniting a short squeeze that has driven it to 15.50. Pretty good stuff.

So, what we want to find are stocks that look like AUY but haven't broken through and taken off...yet. Below are four candidates. If the HUI holds 580 next week and you end up looking for a miner to buy, I'd start with these four or any other stock that has a similar-looking chart.

Now here are four that don't look so good. You can certainly nibble at these if you want and I'm not sure I would sell them yet if I'd ridden them all of the way down. However, if you're looking to buy, I'd stay away from these and any others you find that look the same.

Time prohibits me from giving you more charts but I think you get the picture. If you're interested in a stock not mentioned above, pull up a chart yourself. I think you'll find that it either looks like the first group or the second and it will then be clear to you whether or not it is something to consider buying.

If all else fails, just daytrade the UGL and the AGQ. Mister Hyde gave up on the miners about 8 weeks ago and has been trading these two ETFs exclusively ever since. He's made about 30% and is feeling quite pleased with himself. A word of warning, though. UGL and AGQ...particularly AGQ...are quite volatile and not for everybody, particularly the faint of heart. If you don't like the heat, don't go anywhere near the kitchen. In fact, stay out of the house completely.

In time, a portfolio of miners will treat you just fine. A little patience and a little homework will take you a long way. Good luck! TF

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Dakini
Aug 21, 2011 - 2:45pm

@ Haole and others about posts on the main blog page

Haole said: "The point of keeping these Chemtrail opinions in the appropriate forum is valid but I hope there's not a move developing to start to judge or censor each other because of opinion and/or belief, etc. please."

I agree. I may be wrong in my understanding, but I thought that the blog on the main page was meant to serve as kind of an open thread, irregardless of the specific title of the blog post.

Perhaps Turd and/or the moderators might clarify this, if it continues to be a concern.

My preference is for free flow of thoughts on an open thread, whether "tinfoil hat," "tasty nitrate-laden bacon recipes and canned ham sales," "chemtrails," "politics" or other.

One of my concerns is that topics of interest might get buried in the forums if they are never given (at least) initial voice in the main blog's comments. I am not concerned about how "others" see us. I have faith in the strength of a diverse community, in THIS community (which I think is extraordinary!) I also have faith in the idea of the self-organizing principle, that topics will come naturally to their resolution - without the need for rules and subtle (or not so subtle) censoring or silencing of voices.

Just a word from personal experience - Some years ago, I got into a number of contentious discussions/debates on a few email discussion groups - remember Yahoo group lists? In groups where moderation was non-existent or very light, I often found I learned something valuable from the person I was "arguing" with. That is, if they truly took the time to make themselves credible by supporting their views with tangible information. On the other hand, in groups where moderation was heavy-handed, I found that the energy and the spirit of the group greatly diminished. It got really old when "control freak moderators" that didn't feel comfortable with the topic or were worried about how others would "see" our group kept coming out to say: "Take it to pem." (Especially when the one thing you were NOT going to do is talk pem with the person who held the opposing view! It was ridiculous, to say the least.)

Anyway, I think the mods and the people here are great and it'll all work out!

Just my two cents on the topic.

Jim HHaole
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:59pm

Haole....

I understand what you are saying... and I for one am not trying to be a "hack" moderator. I leave the moderating to the likes of ScottJ... a (young) person I happen to have strong faith in as an intellect, and a human being (I found his blog before he was ever associated with TF.. and we have had private emails before, though he probably does not know me via this name).

What I am trying to do is lend my expertise here... as I stated before.. I am a chemist working in semiconductors... I work at the leading edge of technology, and I do consider myself qualified to comment on the veracity of this chemtrail thing. I am telling you it is BS, and several other posters have also stated their qualifications, and done the same. I have added significant detail in answering the questions technically so that anyone who wants to can see the truth. You may view this as attacking the poster.. I view it as a truth seeking process. I am also, by the way, willing and able to admit when I am wrong.

I don't pipe up about every tinfoil hat conspiracy idea... for instance, there are quite a few trained engineers/architects who think Bld 7 should not have fallen the way it did from a fire (and no direct hit).. so I remain on the fence there. I hate to think there was a false flag aspect to 9/11.. it sickens me in fact.. but I just don't know. I live in suburban NY and we lost some of our own. I would not jump into this argument because I don't know enough to.

Vypuero
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:48pm

food for thought on Miners

Published under: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4490468598422095060&postID=1758...

originally under: https://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailthree.html

markets will dictate what will happen to mining shares. They represent a shared interest in a real mine that has real assets that employ real people.

You don't know FOA’s shoemaker analogy. Should you buy some shoes for your bare feet, or buy shares in the shoemaker factory whence you foresee a great demand for shoes approaching?:

"When gold is discussed on public forums and at investment conferences, many true physical gold advocated don't perceive the motivation behind the oratory from today's paper gold bugs. Their interest in physical gold is real, but their actual intent is to gain "a" security by profiting from a gold dynamic created by other's buying actions. Never to gain "the" actual security by entering into the gold dynamic themselves. Many of them don't have a clue of what all that means. Yet, such an understanding would delinenate the huge difference within this concept. Especially today,,,,, and in the future as said difference may make or break the financial worth of many. Here is an example of such thinking:

----- Two guys are talking about shoes:
"Hey, did you notice how few people have shoes today? I know we have them and their use is obvious. It balances our overall physical appearance and gives a long-lasting foundation for our feet and for our human structure. In turn, shoes support all the other investment clothes we own and use during our life."

While these fellas are talking several other "Americans" overhear the conversation and join in:
"Shoes,,,,, shoes,,,, what's this about shoes? You say there is a demand for them,,,, a deficit in supply? Oh yes, we completely understand the concept and fully embrace it. Without shoes, none of us could economically stand up straight. The whole world is woefully shy of them and will someday be forced,,,,, if not by foresight, by need, to own them. There is no way any of us could transverse a hard rocky economic road without gold,,,, weeeee mean shoes! Man alive,,,,, I'm going to buy a shoe factory and make some money from all this new demand."

But, the first two guys observed and asked:
"But, wait a minute,,,,,, aren't you going to follow your own keen concept and buy some shoes for yourself and your family first? You know, that public shoe company does not and will not,,,, by government tax laws and regulations,,,,,, sell it's product directly to it's owners. They can only give paper profits to their owners. During all the big rush, you will be in with all the other "shoeless buyers"

Oh yeah,,,,,, we will later buy them,,, said the traders,,,,, besides, I got a 1/4 shoe now,,,, that's a start. And, by holding these tiny shoe laces, we can stand here and fit in with all you well heeled players (grinning like Texas Westerner on an oil well ). Look, I'm in this to make money,,,,, it's just a concept like all the others I follow. I do the same thing when I'm with other "conceptors" of the same ilk,,,,,, I talk their talk to understand their concept. But, I really don't need your gold as long as I got my paper profits.

OK, said the two guys with shoes. We don't mind your talking with us, so long as your perceptions don't distort our end purpose of having good shoes,,,,,,, and just don't complain when your company's value can't equal the worth of good shoes on the hard road before us."

"In our society, dominated by Western Thoughts about savings wealth and the use of leverage to gain it, Paper Gold Advocates have advanced the logic of their position by using overlapping reasoning. Promoting an idea that share ownership in an industry, that sells gold to make a cash profit, is the same as ownership of the gold product they produce. This is the same thinking progression where history records a shoemaker's children without shoes. Following this you, as a paper gold investor, also risk a situation where your family goes barefoot, without real wealth, while political maneuverings wipes out your stock and trade business investment; not to mention your wealth. In the same social dynamic where friends point out the shoemaker's bare feet, physical gold advocates will one day be asking; "but I thought he owned a gold mine?"

Context for the shoe analogy:

The modern gold industry could be compared to a hypothetical "shoe" industry,,,,,

like this:

------Every family was taught that there was much more leverage (and profit) from putting the families finances into buying the shares of companies that make shoes. It seemed that almost everyone would have to buy shoes at one time or another and this demand would certainly drive shoe prices sky high. In time, thought has indeed evolved. Today our logic dictated as a must that it was even far better for one to buy shoe mining companies than owning the shoes themselves. Slowly, over many years,,,, families held less and less pairs of shoes and more and more company stocks. Logic moved further until,,,,, they lowered their shoe buying until each family shared only one pair, but owned a bunch of shoe co. stocks. In addition,,,, "indirectly, through third parties" ,,, they owned contracts for the delivery of real shoes. Indeed, this was smarter because their money was invested for a higher return in other areas,,,, and they could always exercise their contracts for more shoes if needed. Especially if "changing times" required the ownership of more than one pair per family.

The future as my evidence for today:

(A). As time and events later proved,,,, things were not as everyone thought. Later in this cycle, it turned out that many of the shoes everyone had contracts for,,,,,, were mostly the product of other families selling their excess shoe holdings. Not the governments selling so much themselves. Worse yet, those shoes had multiple contracts written on them so as to make the delivery impossible. To cover all those contracts, shoe brokers and companies had gone into OTC and futures exchanges to buy "financial" hedges for shoe delivery. In a twist of logic, even though those hedges could only be settled in cash, these contract buyers figured that at least their "financial book" would be covered if a shoe default occurred. But this did nothing for all the families that didn't read the small print that said shoe delivery contracts would "through national emergency" or perhaps "security exchange rules",,,,,, also be settled in cash under adverse conditions. Well,,,, most of these very sharp investors accepted even these conditions. They figured that with even a cash settlement, and well before national rule changes,,,, they could pay their taxes on the profits and still buy the shoes in an open market. And using the same logic that placed them in this position,,,,, figured they would buy even more shoes because their cashed in paper leverage gave them more money! Now, after the fact it didn't work out that way. Shoe prices ran ten times faster in the middle of the default settlements,,, so even with some players making 1,000% in cash,,,, shoes were nowhere to be found. If they were found, these cash profits brought even less pairs than if they had put the origional money in them in the first place...

...(B). Further,,,,, time later revealed that in the late 90s demand for shoes had indeed "skyrocketed", world-wide. Fortunately, many of the people in the Western nations of the world had "brought into" this logic of having only a few pairs of shoes per family and holding their other "shoe wealth" in other paper forms. Some in Dow stocks,,,, some in shoe stocks,,,,, some in shoe contracts,,,, some in shoe derivatives and other options. This effect diverted much of the real shoe demand by spreading out the buying into paper form. It allowed many existing shoes to be diverted overseas where people wanted to get rid of extra dollars and indeed, hold real shoes as their families wealth. Now, after the fact,, we know that the real demand figures from Shoefield services were completely skewered because they only counted real shoes shipped,,,, not the paper shoes purchased!

(C). Further,,,,,, events later proved that the Central Banks really knew the value of shoes to the world after all. Even during this period, records later proved that the CB mostly sold shoes to each other,,,, with only a small amount (relative to demand) flowing into the real markets. It seemed that they really only rented a very small amount of shoes (relative to demand) to keep the rates down. Perhaps it was the power of suggestion?

All this was in an effort to keep world demand from destroying the "Whole Marketplace" for shoes. This policy was helped enormously as most of the Dollar / IMF banks were more than willing to supply "this paper shoe marketplace they had created earlier",,,,,,,, with paper shoe commitments because of the profits this created. The CBs saw that "Western investors" would satisfy most of the real demand through their willingness to hold paper shoes,,,,,, and indeed, if shoe prices stayed low,,,, these same investors did indeed,,,, gladly sell their "old shoe bar holdings" into the huge world demand. Further helping to keep the shoe prices low. All in a effort to give some foreign dollars an illusion of shoe buying power. The rest of the other dollar world,,,, that understood the message being sent by the CBs,,,,, traded their fiat for shoes,,,, over time,,, as able. Now, after the fact,,, they were right. The gold ,,, err err shoes, that is,,,,, they purchased and held in physical shoe friendly government hands more than offset the value lost as the world gold market fell apart,,,,, taking the dollar with it.

"As soon as that happens, all the expert geologists, all the expert mine builders and operators will bail along with the drill hole results that show what gold was even there. I am not trying to make a case for gold stocks but there must be financial incentives for the experts to even find or extract the gold. If not, the gold in the ground will not even be found, let alone mined. All gold production would stop."

Those industries will explode in growth relative to today. The profit margin in gold mining will likely be higher than today! It will be a BOOM business.

But we are talking about mining stock compared to physical. Mining shares will never track physical gold, and will face the political will of the hungry collective in the meantime. Maybe mining profits rise 100% relative to today, who knows?

But that pales in comparison to this physical gold.

@ 3,000% > 100%, no?

Cheers, J.R.

Jasper PuddlemakerIrene
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:46pm

@Irene (TRX)

RE: "Any owners out there who can add something about TRX?"

I really hesitate to discuss a particular stock on a general thread like this, so let me put it this way:

Mining exploration and development is first and foremost a people business. People are most important; the property is secondary to the people. A mediocre property in capable management hands will be more successful than a great property in the hands of poor management. Some stats: On the exploration side, 20% of the teams are responsible for 80% of the economic finds. Of that 20%, 20% of those teams are responsible for 80% of the economic finds. A people business for sure.

The reason I hold TRX is because Jim has an outstanding track-record of building companies. He understands the world, understands economics, and understands the gold market. He is a company-builder, not an exploration geologist. He knows the formula for success, and has the ability to assemble the right people for the task. The future is not 100% certain of course, but based upon Jim's track record, his primary play for this precious metals bull market has a significant chance of being hugely successful. That is why I hold TRX in my portfolio.

Haole
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:32pm

Let's not allow

Let's not allow self-righteous posters on either side of any given argument become post cops and hack moderators, passing judgment on other's intellect, cognitive integrity and or opinions. There are very capable moderators here (Scottj, etc?) aside from Turd himself and an Alert Moderator button under every post. I think we will soon have an ignore user option as well (which is unfortunate if one feels they need to use it actually)?

The point of keeping these Chemtrail opinions in the appropriate forum is valid but I hope there's not a move developing to start to judge or censor each other because of opinion and/or belief, etc. please.

Let's not turn the blog into a conflict between Tinfoil Hat conspiracy theorists and intellectual descendants of those who laughed at the Wright brothers because of the odd controversial topic or opinion interspersed...

Some of what many had called "tinfoil hat" conspiracy only a few years ago is now being proven as truth despite allegedly having all proof of reality and knowledge at the time. Let's remember that. Our reality is continually and rapidly changing before our eyes and perhaps those who discount some issues altogether should extend some criticism while looking in the mirror on occasion.

This place is all about opinions and information. We're a community here and if something strays off topic here and there, so what IMHO. That's one of the fun things about Keiser's and SGS's, etc. bolgs is that you never know what you're going to get under each topic and there is some damn good stuff sometimes. Just my opinion.

Personally I think there is value in at least some of what every person on this board has to say. There's a lot of experience, knowledge and insight here, whether I disagree or not. There's also a lot of repeated themes and reiterated information from thread to thread to thread that is bang on topic but has been said and read 50,000 times. I'm not complaining at all, just saying. As long as we can keep it civil and remember we are a little family then what harm is there?

Oh, and so I'm topic here...

Gold Silver Miners Gold Silver Miners Gold Silver Miners Gold Silver Miners Ra Ra Ra Weeeeeeeeeeeee

Thank-you to all posters, moderators and Turd himself.

Tesla
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:18pm
Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Tesla
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:16pm

S&P 500 analysis

I used to subscribe to this service when I was trading... The guy is pretty sharp in terms of TA and I have to say I learned a lot and did very well with what I learned from him. You might enjoy this free video regarding our current market direction and condition:

https://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3289.cfm

Jasper Puddlemakerthemagicbusguy
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:08pm

@themagicbusguy (and for those who think owning miners is risky)

RE: "I'm curious what those holding miners think about the End Game for miners? ... if sovereigns nationalize mines and makes them state property, what good is your paper worth? Just curious."

I concentrate mostly on companies operating in countries with track-records of honoring property rights. But I have no problem speculating in explorers operating in some crazy places. I just know that if the explorers hit something I will likely be out long before nationalization becomes an issue.

For the "physical-only" folks here: Consider American history. In 1933 Roosevelt ordered confiscation of physical. Though very little was turned in, the order resulted in physical held in private possession moving into storage, or into the underground economy. In other words, gold became a PITA to use in private commerce. Now look at Homestake Mining:

Homestake Mining share value 1920 = $71

Homestake Mining share value 1940 = $528

People forget, or don't realize, that during the period when gold was illegal for Americans to own, the gold mining companies mined gold and made shareholders a ton of cash (and substantive dividends).

I don't think owning miners is crazy at all. They provide leverage, and in my opinion are a prudent hedge against confiscation of physical.

¤
Aug 21, 2011 - 1:02pm

Gold Cartel In Shambles / PM Shares On The Move

Gold, Silver SOAR, Gold Cartel In Shambles / PM Shares On The Move … Finally by Bill Murphy - Le Metropole Cafe Published : August 21st, 2011

What the mainstream gold world and Planet Wall Street do not understand is that one of the reasons gold is acting like it has been is because of a Commercial Signal Failure. There were a number of players who have played the gold trading game allied with The Gold Cartel. They would short and short and then cover those shorts when The Gold Cartel attacked the price and forced spec longs to sell. This is how they made money over and over again by being short in a bull market.

Well, over the past couple of weeks the game totally changed as The Gold Cartel began to lose control of their management of the gold price, as evidenced by the breaking of the 2% Rule. The total financial chaos in Europe and the US sent them into a panic, and instead of shorting more as the gold price rose (which they have done for so long), they became buyers (taking huge losses on their short positions), leaving The Gold Cartel to hold the fort. In other words, these commercial shorts abandoned the fort. This is what the GATA camp foretold long ago.

The other factors which have to have them spooked are:

*The strong potential for a bank holiday, which could be announced out of the blue.

*Central banks asking for their lent gold back. You won’t hear this outside of the GATA camp, but the notion of lent gold to support the gold price suppression scheme has been one of our basic themes of understanding the gold market. If central banks, like Venezuela, ask for their gold back, it could cause a PANIC, and has to have sheeple central bankers who have lent gold out, to be in a twit. These are risk adverse types whose worst nightmare is to be embarrassed and exposed to their public as having been duped into folly. If this is so, as I suspect, the price of gold is likely to advance much faster than even we thought, as nervous central bankers start making demands of those who have their gold. Yeah baby!

More evidence of just how solid the move up in gold is … the AM Fix came in at $1862 and the PM Fix was $1848. The physical market is very firm at these newly high prices.

Our kind of chart:

Daily gold price
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/The star of the show on Comex was silver as it rose three times what gold did today, making a $42.56 high. Quite frankly, the action is picture perfect and is making this MIDAS silver comment spot on…

https://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-gold-silver-soar-gold-c...

Lonerangersilver
Aug 21, 2011 - 12:51pm

Living through a currency devaluation and how to cope

I was managing an American subsidiary of a successful large US Company in Mexico. It had been a financial turnaround for our team. Cash flow had accumulated in our bank in Mexico and corporate didn’t want the money repatriated to the US. Although we had already paid a 35% income tax to the Mexican government, we would have to pay an additional 30% exit tax to repatriate the money. In addition, we would have to pay high fees for the peso/dollar exchange, in order to make the transfer. The company wanted to expand our successful business and so we decided to keep the money in Mexican pesos to be used for further expansion.

One morning, as my wife and I were on a trip driving on the highway, we heard a national message from the President of Mexico in 1976, Luis Echevarria, one of the most corrupt presidents in Mexican history. “It is a lie that we are going to devalue the peso,” he said.

Read more

https://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/living-through-a-curre...

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