Saturday Charts

Sat, Aug 20, 2011 - 1:55pm

After a crazy and outrageously fun late week, it's time for a break. I'm trying to chill today and catch my breath but I'm having trouble relaxing. The metals, particularly silver, are poised to continue their relentless drive higher next week and I can't wait for tomorrow night so that we can get things rolling again.

As you know, gold has been making us a lot of fiat over the past six weeks and has, consequently, drawn most of our attention. This trend is changing so I want to start today with silver, instead.

If you're wondering about yesterday's rally, the answer can be found by looking at Thursday. I had told you to watch the 40.40 level very closely. Now you know why! When silver closed above 40.40 Thursday night, two things happened:

1) It frightened a lot of shorts and caused them to cover.

2) It inspired a lot of new, algo and TA-oriented longs to jump in.

The result was a $2+ up day. Now, if you think that was exciting, just wait till Monday. By closing above 42.30 yesterday, two very significant things happened:

1) The 10-day moving average bullishly crossed through the 20-day. Silver is now significantly above all four, main moving averages and all are pointing higher. This is very bullish from a technical standpoint and it will draw an even higher level of algo and TA-oriented longs into silver early next week.

2) Every single contract that was shorted since May 4th by The Forces of Darkness and their tag-along, smartypant buddies is now under water. As the techies drive silver higher, the pain of being short becomes increasingly unbearable. (Kind of like how we all felt being long back in May.) More short covering will ensue and you get a virtuous cycle of higher prices.

Therefore, expect more explosive moves and higher prices next week. The only potential negative is that option expiration for the Sep11 contract is Thursday. Whether or not this will serve to contain the advance is difficult to predict. One thing I do know, though: I'm very excited for Monday. Tuesday, too.


Gold was kickin ass and takin names early yesterday before coming in a little during the Comex session. The notice from Interactive Brokers about future margin hikes seemed to take some of the wind from gold sails. Though we must always assume the worst from the C/C/C, there is no justification at this point for further margin hikes. As discussed yesterday, the hike 10 days ago was brought about by an advance in gold price that had become disorderly. Since then, gold has only increased in price by about $50 (not even 3%). It has been an orderly advance, too, with the only "disorderliness" showing up overnight Thursday. Again, the criminal C/C/C makes the rules and, obviously, they couldn't give a shit about what I think...but...unless gold rapidly accelerates early next week, I'm not too worried about another margin hike. 

Here's the thing, though: I expect gold to rapidly accelerate early next week. The charts below look extremely bullish to me and, if silver continues rolling like I expect, gold could easily make a run at Santa's next angel of 1936. With enough momentum, it could also run toward 1950 and even 2000. IF that happens...particularly if it happens by, say, Wednesday...then you should very much be on the lookout for another margin hike. Got it? OK, good. Here are your charts:


OK, that's all for the metals. I'm going to take a lunch break and then get to work on some TA of select miners. If you appreciate all of the work that goes into this site and you'd like to buy my lunch, feel free to "feed me" through the "donate" button on the main page. The Turd is sincerely grateful for every token of appreciation he receives. TF

p.s. The Tech Team tells me that our two site improvements are almost ready. The "ignore user" feature is currently up and running. Private messaging will be available by early next week.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


aha69 · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:04pm

oooops.....I forgot the

oooops.....I forgot the obligatory FIRST!

aha69 · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:06pm


Lots of good interviews on KingWorldNews this week. Most especially with Eric Sprott and Ben Davies.

Very very bullish for silver.

Like master Turd I cannot wait until Sunday evening

Golden Turtle · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:10pm


ALL HAIL TF! Our fearless leader.

Keep up the great work bud. 

Haole · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:13pm

Awesome Turd!  Weeeeee

Awesome Turd! 


Dave T · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:19pm


I’ve been doing quite well lately being long in call options in GLD and SLV. When will the market participants finally figure out there’s little in the way of physical PMs to back either of those EFTs? At that point it will be time to bail out of those funds. Hugo Chavez’s gold repatriation might drive gold higher, but will he also start unraveling the GLD Ponzi scheme?

MonkeySmoke · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:23pm


...proves, once again, Turd knows his shit!!! Trader Dan echoes your thoughts--imagine that--in that next week should be all silver, all the time. I just love it.

beinki · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:23pm
Old Timer · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:26pm

for whatever it's worth

As a 70 year old grandfather, I sit here "happy" that I have saved every silver coin since my dad handed me a Kennedy Half in 1964 and said the magic words"This is the last of the silver coins for every day change." For the next 3 years, as a wet-behind-the-ears teacher making about $5,000 a year, I went through a role of coins a week and removed the silver. I still have the coins. I saved them with a tight grasp that not even the Hunt Brothers' frenzy could loosen.... Although as Best Man in a wedding I had to use $28 of my worst Mercury Dimes to buy a new-fangled oven toaster. Not a good move! Then with silver at $5, not so long ago, I began to buy, still cautiously,for as a retired teacher, extra cash was still hard to find. Now I sit here "happy" and yet worried sick for my sons and their families. PM price increases cast a shadow over their futures that gets darker as values rise. Dramatic change IS on the way. Those of you who are still young: may God bless. Keep a tight fist. And those like me? I guess try our best to pass intact , what now is a small treasure, on to those most vulnerable who are just now beginning to understand the intricacies of a beautiful, and oh-so scary, world. Oh, and enjoy every minute that we have left with them ... try to teach resilience ... and hope PM's do not soar too high.

Invisible Hand · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:30pm



Any outlook on the miners? They've been lagging behind significantly.

lostinspace · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:34pm

Made the mistake of turning

Made the mistake of turning on Fox News again today, after repeatedly promising myself to never do it again. Blah, blah, Romney, blah, blah, blah, Perry, Bachmann, blah, blah, Paul Ryan?

Hey assholes, look at the poll from your own site last week. Out of 30,000 votes a candidate you didn't mention got over 74%.... Fair and Balanced?

Ron Paul bitchez.

Chicken Little · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:37pm

Warning: Iceberg Ahead!

We have just been through the epic congressional struggles related to the “Debt Ceiling” and the downgrade by S&P. Now another economic iceberg lies dead ahead.

It is called the “Continuation Resolution”. For more than 5 months the US government has been operating without a budget. The administration submitted a budget. It was passed by the House but got tabled in the Senate. Since then, the government has relied on these temporary continuation bills to keep things afloat.

The next vote to extend the continuation must occur before September 30, 2011. This vote will require the co-operation of Democrats and Republicans. After the debt ceiling debacle, how likely do you think it will be that the two parties can get their act together on this one?

If we get another display of government disfunction, what will the effect be on the PO$ and PM prices? Will the EE engineer a PM beat-down in order to mitigate the effects over another display of gridlock?

I am not sure what to make of this one but depending on what Congress does, it could be very bullish for PMs.



beardeus · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:37pm

Money Bomb Now! Please donate!

Hey guys,

Ron Paul money bomb now! I know he woke many of us up including myself. The greatest hope for America.



ewc58 · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:39pm

Yeah, what Beinki

and Foghorn said!

The Hat Tip · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:39pm

Thank you, Turd

Because of your analysis and insight, I've made some nice fiat during this run towards $44.

I will buy your next lunch by donating.

Thank you very much.

NC Fred · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:44pm

@ Turd

Thanks for the weekend update!

I have a question for you:

I missed the latest move but that's water under the bridge. I'm planning to buy (silver mini) Sunday night and HOLD for several weeks or months. That's a new concept for me (for futures) but ready to take the plunge after many, many frustrating days(over a 4 month period) of trying to time intraday moves with tight stops which has been ridiculous.

I realize the leverage risk . I have enough in the account to cover a move all the way down to $35. Below that, I would be close to having the account blown yeah....this is a major bet for me.

1. If silver gaps up on the open Sunday night (say 43.50 or higher) would you wait for a pullback for a few hours or maybe an overnight stink bid? If a stinkbid, what do you think would be reasonable?

2. Since I'm planning to HOLD for a good while is there any advantage to buy the Sept contract. If not, I'll buy December to avoid the rollover.

I fully understand your disclaimer and I am fully responsible for my trading. But, it would be nice to hear a voice of experience weigh in before I go "all in".

beardeus · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:47pm

Old Timer

I'm 25, with 5 siblings and with parents who aren't doing too well after the divorce in 2004. Imagine selling the acrea lot house right before the boom! I stack and play options and haven't sold one piece since I started stacking heavily. Options, in my opinion, are key here for increasing the stack largely. If silver hits between 60 and 70 before January I will have tripled and maybe quadrupled my stack. I'm younger. Have more prospects. Healthier, most likely. Not married yet. No kids (I want them). I am terrified, mostly, about my family's and I future. I supposed I wish I was your age. You probably lived a decent life. Been able to see your kids grow with peace here at home and with minor worries when compared to what is coming. Stacked for decades. Truly, I try my best to live kindly and charitably towards others. I am happy with myself. No bad habits and no majors "oops" thus far. If I die, I believe I will return to peace that only Heaven knows.

Who knows! Whether it's better to be young or old!


- Ron Paul 2012

Tom L · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:49pm

Thanks Turd

Like you I can't wait for tomorrow afternoon. I've also been doing some TA on some miners to give to my sister to advise her on mining issues (I'll post them up on another thread). The wife will be back from Miami and the Singapore market will open. If we have another gap-up open like we did the weekend of the S&P downgrade there could be a lot of dead fund managers by the time of the CRIMEX open monday morning. 

If the HUI pushes towards 610 on Monday that would really make me a happy happy camper.


silverwood Old Timer · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:52pm

Hey Old Timer, glad to see

Hey Old Timer, glad to see you had the foresight to accumulate the silver coins of the realm. When you were accumulating them their purchasing power was not too far away from their face value. Now what I find to be totally criminal in nature is our government's treatment of the so call capital gains you have experienced by simply saving those coins. They are saying that you will have to give the taxman his due because you were prudent and figured out a superior vehicle for saving for the future. Somehow tax gains on people like you on your US legal tender coins should be not applicable, but how can we fight this crime?

lilbromarky1 · Aug 20, 2011 - 2:53pm

Silver has not yet been

Silver has not yet been remonetized, but it is becoming less demonetized.

SilverBoy · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:00pm

Silver and Gold will pullback on QE3 official annoucment

This will be great opurtinity to buy but before it happens I'm sure we will see gold around 1900-2000 and silver around 50.

Bozzz · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:00pm


I have a quick question, and it may be a dumb one!

Is Abby Joseph Cohen A shill?

I watched the CNBC video of her saying, "a double dip recession is very doubtful". Then I pulled up another interview given in January 2008 predicting that, by years end the Dow would end up 11%. If she's not a shill, she would be a perfect one. That grand motherly, honest looking as the day is long, talking in that calm reassuring voice that everything is going to be ok.

even steven · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:02pm


Although I am new at posting, I am not new to the site. I followed some of the discussions and it would be fair to say that I see a pattern here, which makes me come back now and then. I like the environment and I like the openness and inclusive culture not to mention the fact that it is more like a forum than a real blog (I know that it used to be a blog before). Although I usually keep a low profile, and I like to listen rather than waiting my turn to talk, I felt that I needed to say few words… and I did…

Anyway I have only good thoughts but also a wish or a cheer: keep up the good work…

(please excuse my English, it is my second language).

Tom L · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:03pm


3 year chart here:

Bottom line, if the HUI's going higher so is oil. If oil is weak, the HUI will likely correct, comma dammit!

the Gold to WTIC 3 year chart is here:


ewc58 · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:05pm

Alright alright, back to the topic at hand then :-)

Someone say PM related? Right then. I see your PM related and raise you a Mickey Fulp audio:

 Mercenary Musings Radio: Fear and Panic Equals Opportunity

Your bet.

ScottJ · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:07pm

Could this be the next QEIII?

Reading Tyler's (zerohedge) comment yesterday is really striking me, but I cannot tell if it is b/c I am reinforcing my own perspective or if it has truth. Guess only time will tell on that one.

Central Bank Policy only works if it is a surprise - Tyler Durden

Read the full story here:

The upcoming expansion of US bank credit

Since the FOMC meeting, there has been a noticeable silence over the Fed’s monetary policy following QE2. But there is some evidence that the funding of government debt at low interest rates will shift to the repo market, rather than a new round of quantitative easing.

The silence on this subject may be partly explained by the monetary focus shifting to Europe. However, it is likely that the Fed has no intention of introducing QE3, given that the expansion of narrow money so far has led only to a degree of price inflation, without much benefit to asset prices. And with the ECB still reluctant to print euros, QE3 would probably collapse the dollar/euro rate and propel gold considerably higher, putting unwelcome strains on the financial system. The Fed also finds itself having dramatically expanded the monetary base for little economic benefit: against all its expectations, the economy is sliding into recession again. Perhaps it is a case of all the people being no longer fooled all of the time with respect to what QE actually is. No, another approach is called for.

To the Keynesian mind the obvious alternative must be to expand bank credit, particularly when there is an accumulation of non-borrowed reserves sitting on the Fed’s balance sheet. The NBRs represent the excess capital owned by the commercial banks, which have not been drawn down for use as the capital base for the expansion of bank credit. They currently stand at about $1.76 trillion while in normal circumstances NBRs would be no more than a few tens of billions. High levels of NBRs reflect the reluctance of banks to lend and bankable borrowers to borrow: they are symptomatic of an economy that refuses to expand.

It is against this background that Ben Bernanke announced at the recent post-FOMC meeting press conference that interest rates would be held at current levels (close to zero) for the next two years. This could be the basis for shifting the funding of government debt from printing raw money to expanding bank credit. The public do not understand the inflationary implications of expanding bank credit as easily as they do that of printing money: switching to bank credit as a funding route for government debt allows the Fed to fool all of us a while longer.

survivalwstyle · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:10pm

@ old timer

my story sounds like you 30 or so years ago. teaching is the way i decided to share, extended unpaid vacations where i store my wealth. PM have become not only my saving aCCount but my hopes for a house and providing for my wife and and future children as sOOn as that gift may aPPear. have my death grip squEEze on. 

$50 silver 9/11 has bEEn my caLL. it is about to get disorderly in the AG. charts lOOk to be heading straight up again to me... crazy thing is i stiLL do not want that. i have paper to burn. lots here it sEEms to me have bEEn waiting for dips that never come. it was 36.50, then 38.50 then 40 and now is it 42.50??? we going back there? expiration is the only way, and how many shorty paper pants wiLL that take? today actuaLLy caNNot believe i am buying more after a 5% increase. just came into a windfaLL of cash. hits the bank on monday. my check is gOOd ;o)

kEEp printing = stack increasing.

until that changes my bank aCCount wiLL stay empty. digits in a bank are worth about their weight.

stay LONG the phyZZ

Dave T Old Timer · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:19pm

Reply to post: for whatever it's worth

That was a nice post by you Old Timer. But it’s not the PM price increases that will cast a shadow over your children’s future, it’s the world’s infatuation with fiat currency that will do so. PMs are just gravitating to a trusted value as fiat currencies gravitate to their intrinsic value (zero). Like you though, I try to instill values and teachings upon my children. I do fear what is in store for all of us, but mostly I fear for them. God, guns and gold… words I live by.

Back in the late 60’s or early 70’s my parents took a bucket of nickels, dimes and quarters to the bank to exchange for cash – about $1K worth of coins. I cringe when I think of how much of that might have been 90% silver, as it was coins they had accumulated over a long time. Not many knew back then what was in store.

ewc58 · Aug 20, 2011 - 3:20pm

Turd, catch the new Davies interview

on KWN if you haven't already. Ben reads Venezuela pretty much like you. Said it's a game changer.

· Aug 20, 2011 - 3:21pm

Deliberation or dictators

I have had a bit too much time to think today...

When hearing a speech or an important statement (like may be emanating from Jackson Hole), you can learn several things by listening between and beyond the words. In the academic discipline of rhetoric, we teach that every text reveals three things: 1) the nature of the author, 2) the authors beliefs about the nature of the audience, and 3) the “preferred relationship” between the author and audience.

As I hear Obama and then Bernanke speak, some glaring and troubling differences leap out at me. First, in the spirit of equality and democratic self-rule, Obama makes claims, then tries to support them with reasons. By presenting reasons, backed by some evidence, Obama is deliberating with the audience. He reveals 1) that he values public deliberation, 2) that he respects the American people enough to give reasons in an attempt to persuade, rather than compel, and 3) that he honors the democratic process as part of the appropriate relationship between public official and voters. Recently he claimed that America is still AAA, then he supported this claim by citing Buffet’s opinion, and the opinions of “investors.” Obama had a very weak argument, but the point is that it WAS an argument and he tried to deliberate with us. Obama runs this country according to parliamentary or democratic principles, arguing for his policies, and defending his actions.

The Bernanke, on the other hand, does not argue. He does not cite any supposed experts (like Buffet). He rarely presents evidence. When he has presented charts and graphs, they are oversimplified and extracted from the “beliefs” of the FOMC members. You will notice the repeated phrases of “I believe” and “the committee believes” as key elements of all Fed announcements. He does not deliberate with the audience, he dictates. He only appears to do press conferences as if there is a gun to his back. And his responses are usually vague. He is incredibly uncomfortable with the process of public deliberation. This reveals that 1) the Bernanke does not value the give-and–take of deliberation, 2) that he has little respect for Americans and our preference to hear reasons with evidence to support claims, and 3) that his preferred relationship with Americans is that of a monarch to the subjects. When the Bernanke speaks, we are supposed to shut up and listen. He does NOT defend his actions.

King Geroge III of englandWhat troubles me about the Bernanke is that he reflects a worldview of a ruling elite class of people, people whom you do not question and who get what they want. This is the mindset of the nobility and old money of Europe’s monarchial families and their bankers. They dictate, they command, and they expect the sheeple to obey. They are in control whether we like or not. And I believe that this mindset has been preserved behind the scenes by families and clubs right on through the American & French revolutions, as well as the shifts of power in the British Empire away from the king and toward parliamentary rule. This mindset is anti-democratic, anti parliamentary, and does not think for a minute “that all men are created equal.”

For now, these people have to keep their real nature concealed, working behind the curtain to manipulate economies and governments. But if you look, the evidence of who they really are and what they think about us can be found on the front page of the newspaper. Deliberation, or dictation.

Keep stacking!

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