Saturday Charts

Sat, Aug 20, 2011 - 1:55pm

After a crazy and outrageously fun late week, it's time for a break. I'm trying to chill today and catch my breath but I'm having trouble relaxing. The metals, particularly silver, are poised to continue their relentless drive higher next week and I can't wait for tomorrow night so that we can get things rolling again.

As you know, gold has been making us a lot of fiat over the past six weeks and has, consequently, drawn most of our attention. This trend is changing so I want to start today with silver, instead.

If you're wondering about yesterday's rally, the answer can be found by looking at Thursday. I had told you to watch the 40.40 level very closely. Now you know why! When silver closed above 40.40 Thursday night, two things happened:

1) It frightened a lot of shorts and caused them to cover.

2) It inspired a lot of new, algo and TA-oriented longs to jump in.

The result was a $2+ up day. Now, if you think that was exciting, just wait till Monday. By closing above 42.30 yesterday, two very significant things happened:

1) The 10-day moving average bullishly crossed through the 20-day. Silver is now significantly above all four, main moving averages and all are pointing higher. This is very bullish from a technical standpoint and it will draw an even higher level of algo and TA-oriented longs into silver early next week.

2) Every single contract that was shorted since May 4th by The Forces of Darkness and their tag-along, smartypant buddies is now under water. As the techies drive silver higher, the pain of being short becomes increasingly unbearable. (Kind of like how we all felt being long back in May.) More short covering will ensue and you get a virtuous cycle of higher prices.

Therefore, expect more explosive moves and higher prices next week. The only potential negative is that option expiration for the Sep11 contract is Thursday. Whether or not this will serve to contain the advance is difficult to predict. One thing I do know, though: I'm very excited for Monday. Tuesday, too.

Gold was kickin ass and takin names early yesterday before coming in a little during the Comex session. The notice from Interactive Brokers about future margin hikes seemed to take some of the wind from gold sails. Though we must always assume the worst from the C/C/C, there is no justification at this point for further margin hikes. As discussed yesterday, the hike 10 days ago was brought about by an advance in gold price that had become disorderly. Since then, gold has only increased in price by about (not even 3%). It has been an orderly advance, too, with the only "disorderliness" showing up overnight Thursday. Again, the criminal C/C/C makes the rules and, obviously, they couldn't give a shit about what I think...but...unless gold rapidly accelerates early next week, I'm not too worried about another margin hike.

Here's the thing, though: I expect gold to rapidly accelerate early next week. The charts below look extremely bullish to me and, if silver continues rolling like I expect, gold could easily make a run at Santa's next angel of 1936. With enough momentum, it could also run toward 1950 and even 2000. IF that happens...particularly if it happens by, say, Wednesday...then you should very much be on the lookout for another margin hike. Got it? OK, good. Here are your charts:

OK, that's all for the metals. I'm going to take a lunch break and then get to work on some TA of select miners. If you appreciate all of the work that goes into this site and you'd like to buy my lunch, feel free to "feed me" through the "donate" button on the main page. The Turd is sincerely grateful for every token of appreciation he receives. TF

p.s. The Tech Team tells me that our two site improvements are almost ready. The "ignore user" feature is currently up and running. Private messaging will be available by early next week.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 20, 2011 - 2:04pm

oooops.....I forgot the

oooops.....I forgot the obligatory FIRST!

Aug 20, 2011 - 2:06pm


Lots of good interviews on KingWorldNews this week. Most especially with Eric Sprott and Ben Davies.

Very very bullish for silver.

Like master Turd I cannot wait until Sunday evening

Golden Turtle
Aug 20, 2011 - 2:10pm


ALL HAIL TF! Our fearless leader.

Keep up the great work bud.

Aug 20, 2011 - 2:13pm

Awesome Turd!  Weeeeee

Awesome Turd!


Dave T
Aug 20, 2011 - 2:19pm


I’ve been doing quite well lately being long in call options in GLD and SLV. When will the market participants finally figure out there’s little in the way of physical PMs to back either of those EFTs? At that point it will be time to bail out of those funds. Hugo Chavez’s gold repatriation might drive gold higher, but will he also start unraveling the GLD Ponzi scheme?

Aug 20, 2011 - 2:23pm


...proves, once again, Turd knows his shit!!! Trader Dan echoes your thoughts--imagine that--in that next week should be all silver, all the time. I just love it.

Aug 20, 2011 - 2:23pm
Old Timer
Aug 20, 2011 - 2:26pm

for whatever it's worth

As a 70 year old grandfather, I sit here "happy" that I have saved every silver coin since my dad handed me a Kennedy Half in 1964 and said the magic words"This is the last of the silver coins for every day change." For the next 3 years, as a wet-behind-the-ears teacher making about $5,000 a year, I went through a role of coins a week and removed the silver. I still have the coins. I saved them with a tight grasp that not even the Hunt Brothers' frenzy could loosen.... Although as Best Man in a wedding I had to use $28 of my worst Mercury Dimes to buy a new-fangled oven toaster. Not a good move! Then with silver at $5, not so long ago, I began to buy, still cautiously,for as a retired teacher, extra cash was still hard to find. Now I sit here "happy" and yet worried sick for my sons and their families. PM price increases cast a shadow over their futures that gets darker as values rise. Dramatic change IS on the way. Those of you who are still young: may God bless. Keep a tight fist. And those like me? I guess try our best to pass intact , what now is a small treasure, on to those most vulnerable who are just now beginning to understand the intricacies of a beautiful, and oh-so scary, world. Oh, and enjoy every minute that we have left with them ... try to teach resilience ... and hope PM's do not soar too high.

Invisible Hand
Aug 20, 2011 - 2:30pm



Any outlook on the miners? They've been lagging behind significantly.

Aug 20, 2011 - 2:34pm

Made the mistake of turning

Made the mistake of turning on Fox News again today, after repeatedly promising myself to never do it again. Blah, blah, Romney, blah, blah, blah, Perry, Bachmann, blah, blah, Paul Ryan?

Hey assholes, look at the poll from your own site last week. Out of 30,000 votes a candidate you didn't mention got over 74%.... Fair and Balanced?

Ron Paul bitchez.

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