Chugging Forward

Thu, Aug 18, 2011 - 6:55pm

In the commentary this morning, I mentioned how important it was for gold to close today above the highs from Wednesday of last week. It did it! When you consider that today also invalidated the "outside reversal day" that was painted last Thursday, you're left with an extraordinarily strong picture and one where gold is looking to head much higher from here.

That may sound hard to believe. The MSM is full of know-nothings and Disinformation Agents who are working overtime to convince you that gold is in a "bubble" and fraught with risk. This is complete nonsense. Look at the chart below:

This is an orderly progression of eager buyers who are using almost any weakness in price to accumulate positions. I've circled the only time when things got disorderly. The C/C/C brought that to a screeching halt with their margin hike last week. This week, it's right back to the same, steady drumbeat we've been following since early July. So, how far can we go from here? I don't know. In uncharted territory, it's virtually impossible to predict technical resistance. Let's look for two things:

1) Another short term buying climax like we had last week. This will be characterized by similar volatility.

2) Santa's next couple of "angels". The next one is 1849 and the one after that is 1936.

From here, I expect flat to higher gold overnight as global stocks and the ES recover some into the early trading hours tomorrow. However, like last weekend, ask yourself this: Would you rather be long stocks/short gold OR short stocks/long gold over the weekend? Last Friday, stocks were up and gold was down. Tomorrow? Well, I guess we'll see, won't we.

Along those lines, check out this very important chart from Trader Dan. If you think that the current negative correlation between stocks and gold is going to continue, this chart will get your attention and it doesn't even include today's dismal performance.

Last but not least...silver. It also closed above a key technical resistance level today. As you know, a general lack of buyers and open interest has hindered the speed of silver's recovery/advance. Moves like today serve to bring buyers back in, regardless of the extremely high margin rates. I expect silver to continue to trudge forward. It will soon trade toward 41.50 and then 42. How soon it breaks through and closes above $42.30 will determine whether or not I get my $44 by Labor Day. We'll probably need to get through there by this time next week for me to have a shot. Fingers crossed. Either way, silver is looking higher through the northern hemisphere autumn. Sometime in the next 60-90 days it will reach back to the old highs, of that you can be certain.

Have a great evening. Get some rest and be ready for tomorrow. It will be very interesting! TF

9:50pm EDT UPDATE:

​Gold is up $10. The ES is off another 10 points. Crude is down another $1.50. The 10-year note is back under 2%.

A lot can change in the next 12 hours but, at this moment in time, tomorrow looks like it could be a real bloodbath. Not in gold, hopefully not in silver but in just about everything else. It'll be tough to sleep tonight.

The main point of this update is the article linked below. If I had the time or the talent, I'd have written it myself. I agree wholeheartedly with the author's assertions. A must read.

See you in the am for an eventful Friday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 18, 2011 - 7:32pm

Weak mining stocks?

Gold/Silver are at and close to highs and input costs are way down (oil/nat gas/interest rates for funding development, etc.). This should translate to great earnings but the miners don't get any love? Is it the Venezuela nationalization freaking everyone out?

Also, I would think that if the worst case plays out and physical isn't readily available then miners would sky rocket. I'm puzzled to the disconnect. Anyone have thoughts to help enlighten me?? Anyone, Anyone, Bueller?

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:36pm

all doom and no play makes Jack a dull boy - @pbreed

As with all things, moderation or 'golden rule' is key. re: consumption vs. stacking -- think that one through a bit. The entire global economy is built on the premise of ever-expanding, debt-load increasing fiat currency. It's simply reached a level where the exponential curve is just too steep -- if everyone in existence on the planet immediately spent ALL of their money, it would still not be enough.

BTW, your description is not far from my own predicament -- the presence (if only virtual) of others in agreement with one's understanding of the truth can be mesmerizing/addictive. But surrounding yourself with like-minded people all the time can have its drawbacks as well.

Learn a new skill. Study a new language. Visit a new (rural) place off the beaten path. Build friendships with real, honest, 3D flesh and blood people in your neighborhood. Enjoy life while also preparing for its inevitable downturns. Focus on your family, or creating one. If you can afford to take the next 12 months to visit the world, do it (or some version of it). Just make sure to visit at least one or two self-sufficient communities, and study a) how they do it, b) what aspect is vulnerable that may change.

Bro D
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:37pm

More than the little engine that could...

Silver and gold are freight trains will chug along higher and higher.

Chug-a-lug ~ Roger Miller

Chug-a-lug, Turd!

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:47pm


maybe this will cheer you up :-)

Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
WYO Silver
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:47pm


Regarding your remarks at the end of the last thread ("Clarifying Socialism and Right Wing"):

Thank you. Very well said. Hopefully, you enlightened a few people. Nazism and Communism are just two sides of the same coin. They're both based on the Marxist doctrine.

Fascism is socialism with a capitalist veneer.

Again, great comments.......

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:50pm

Dr Jerome

I bought myself a 1992 Libertado yesterday for $1 over spot along with 2 Maples for $1 over spot as well. I have a friend who opened a "We Buy Gold" shop and will sell me any silver he gets for spot or a little above.

In fact, I brought my Libertado to work today, occasionally touch it and have showed a number of coworkers.


Can we not defile Turd's posts with porn? I didn't watch the video but assume that's what it is.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:51pm

Indian monsoons and gold

First, Turd earns his props on a daily basis. Your opinion reports get more awesome all the time; thanks, TF.

Now who has a weather and agricultural report on India? Monsoons make the world go round in the home of tandoori chicken. One talking head on CNBS today suggested that a high crop yield in India would produce increased demand for physical gold. Makes sense to me; might as well gather all the info we can, right?

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:52pm


Can't figure out the emoticons. Duh!

I downloaded the free program. I don't see the emoticons available to cut/paste.

I tried originally to right click, copy and paste it into the image url but a "paste" option never was available. Tried many times.


Aug 18, 2011 - 7:56pm



Aug 18, 2011 - 7:59pm

DPH ...It should work if you

DPH ...It should work if you just copy the icon picture and then paste here.. ??.. ...That's how it works for me. ..They have lots of code there for you to use.. but I couldn't get that to work.. just the c&p of the smiley.

EricO about being in the doghouse. ...I found that song strangely soothing.. "/ .....Yum.. lasagne sounds SO GOOD!

Can someone tell me why on earth it takes optionshouse FOUR days to get your money transfer into your account??? ..Drives me a bit crazy. I did this transfer last Saturday....which of course I'm aware didn't get processed until Monday ..but still.. ..Thursday today and no money deposit yet showing.. ....but it's debited from my checking account already days ago. ....Is there a better options service that doesn't take so long or is this par for the course with all ACH transfers? ....3 days to make the transfer they say.. and then another day before they release it. sigh.

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