Chugging Forward

Thu, Aug 18, 2011 - 6:55pm

In the commentary this morning, I mentioned how important it was for gold to close today above the highs from Wednesday of last week. It did it! When you consider that today also invalidated the "outside reversal day" that was painted last Thursday, you're left with an extraordinarily strong picture and one where gold is looking to head much higher from here.

That may sound hard to believe. The MSM is full of know-nothings and Disinformation Agents who are working overtime to convince you that gold is in a "bubble" and fraught with risk. This is complete nonsense. Look at the chart below:

This is an orderly progression of eager buyers who are using almost any weakness in price to accumulate positions. I've circled the only time when things got disorderly. The C/C/C brought that to a screeching halt with their margin hike last week. This week, it's right back to the same, steady drumbeat we've been following since early July. So, how far can we go from here? I don't know. In uncharted territory, it's virtually impossible to predict technical resistance. Let's look for two things:

1) Another short term buying climax like we had last week. This will be characterized by similar volatility.

2) Santa's next couple of "angels". The next one is 1849 and the one after that is 1936.

From here, I expect flat to higher gold overnight as global stocks and the ES recover some into the early trading hours tomorrow. However, like last weekend, ask yourself this: Would you rather be long stocks/short gold OR short stocks/long gold over the weekend? Last Friday, stocks were up and gold was down. Tomorrow? Well, I guess we'll see, won't we.

Along those lines, check out this very important chart from Trader Dan. If you think that the current negative correlation between stocks and gold is going to continue, this chart will get your attention and it doesn't even include today's dismal performance.

Last but not least...silver. It also closed above a key technical resistance level today. As you know, a general lack of buyers and open interest has hindered the speed of silver's recovery/advance. Moves like today serve to bring buyers back in, regardless of the extremely high margin rates. I expect silver to continue to trudge forward. It will soon trade toward 41.50 and then 42. How soon it breaks through and closes above $42.30 will determine whether or not I get my $44 by Labor Day. We'll probably need to get through there by this time next week for me to have a shot. Fingers crossed. Either way, silver is looking higher through the northern hemisphere autumn. Sometime in the next 60-90 days it will reach back to the old highs, of that you can be certain.

Have a great evening. Get some rest and be ready for tomorrow. It will be very interesting! TF

9:50pm EDT UPDATE:

​Gold is up $10. The ES is off another 10 points. Crude is down another $1.50. The 10-year note is back under 2%.

A lot can change in the next 12 hours but, at this moment in time, tomorrow looks like it could be a real bloodbath. Not in gold, hopefully not in silver but in just about everything else. It'll be tough to sleep tonight.

The main point of this update is the article linked below. If I had the time or the talent, I'd have written it myself. I agree wholeheartedly with the author's assertions. A must read.

See you in the am for an eventful Friday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 18, 2011 - 7:00pm

Burp - 1st

Miners, Miners, Miners?

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:02pm

Turd, which of the miners are

Turd, which of the miners are you going to look through this weekend? Think you could throw SVM in there? It would be much appreciated! Thanks for all you do!

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:03pm

More physical

Picked up more physical yesterday. Among them a silver Libertad. It is a beautiful coin. It is the only investment that provides any confidence, that I can forget about for a while and not monitor daily. Thanks for all your insight, Turd.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:04pm

You want a resistance level?

2400 - the old 1980 high in current dollars. Don't expect it to bounce right clean off 2400, but I'd be real surprised if there isn't a dirty fight around that level, I'd expect them to pull out all the stops to keep it from making new highs in adjusted dollars.

2400 applies to spot gold BTW, in the futures, in 1980 - the unadjusted high was around 1000. That would roughly pencil out to 3000 in current dollars. So there you go, expect fights starting at 2400 going up to 3000.

After that, I have no idea other than some weird dreams I saw 7000, 9000, and 32000 on a computer screen.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:06pm

Thoughs for the day repost.

In some ways it seems rude to repost one ideas into a new thread, but I think this is worth a general discussion and it was two posts from the end of the last thread so I've reposted it.

Shall we stack or consume?

We stack our PM's we delay our gratification, we protect ourselves. When we stack are we contributing to the general world wide depression? If I buy myself a nice lunch a whole chain of people benefit, the waitress, the cook, the grocery seller, etc.... If instead I buy an oz of silver who benefits? Am I just sending my hard earned FRN to the powers that be who own the vast majority of precious metals? Am I an unwitting pawn in a big game? If I take tubes of silver eagles and pretend they are gold eagles, in one hand I can hold more value than an average house! A single tube of AGE is worth more than most cars one will see driveling on the road. Have we slowed down the economy with our fear and hoarding? (See: A PM coin, I cant eat it, it does not take me places, it just stis there and is not really that entertaining. Would I be better off to take 100 oz of silver and buy myself a nice cruise to someplace I've never seen? Would my world be better if I spent that FRN in my local community, got a hair cut, a new pair of shoes, paid to have my truck detailed? Are my actions willing into being the very thing I fear?

ZH,TF, news and depression

You are what you eat. What am I feeding my mind? As I watch the slow motion economic train wreck that is consuming the world, I spend hours reading ZH, Turd, Harvey and Dan. I gather pearls of wisdom from the smart, honorable, competent people that inhabit this space with me. I'm entranced by it all, its destroying my productivity. Instead of going for a Run this morning I eagerly read the latest news. My work projects are all behind, instead of doing something fun at lunch I went by the coin shop. Are we all part of a mutual Jim Jones cult slowly feeding each other poison mental cool aid? I feel I'm more informed about what is going on in the world than I have ever been, yet I find my self depressed. Would I not be better off, if started watching TV again? Maybe I should get excited about how the Chargers will do this year? There is a recent study that says seeing boobies is healthy for men, maybe instead of reading Turd daily I should go to the local strip club and watch nubile young boobies bounce around. I could go out into the machine shop in my garage and invent something that has never existed before. Yet I'm mesmerized by this whole doom and gloom community.

Should we party Now

Suppose all the conspiracy scenarios and bad news here and on ZH are 100% correct. Does it actually help me to know about them? Do I really want to live in a Mad Max world? Would the overall enjoyment of my life be better if I was less responsible? Do I go forth and partake of the modern magic while its still available? Go see more of the world? Buy a nice boat? Become a Tequila snob? Drive a really cool car? Start planning the ultimate Halloween decorative transformation for my house? Treat my self to s birthday flight on the zero G plane? Am I really going to be happier hiding in my well stocked bunker if the SHTF? Or would it be more fun to take the next 12 months and see the Taj, Machu Pichu , the Panama canal?

I mean no disrespect, but I'm starting to think that this community might not be good for all of us.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:07pm

Not a trader, but I been stackin

for ten years or so, and I love this site, helps me keep the faith. Its amazing how many blind people out there, but here you are helping people see! This has a long way to go, so keep on stacking!

boricuadigm-shift pbreed
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:15pm

Balance my friend

Pbreed... Is all about the balance my friend. You could read 30 minutes in the morning and 1-2 hour at night before going to bed. Don't get stuck reading the news. If you feel like you deserve/need vacations take it. Keep enjoying life. Its all about awareness. Aware of our economy, currency and crisis, but you need to be aware that there is much more to life than that. Enjoy the summer, your friends, your family... your inner peace. Have no fear my friend. :-)

bucktooth pbreed
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:15pm


You should have taken the blue pill, instead you grabbed the red one.

Economical Disaster
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:16pm

Wait! Hugo will be getting

Wait! Hugo will be getting his TUNGSTEN Gold and THEN all hell will break loose. The Mainstream will be flipping over each other for GOLD like never before when it hits headlines. They of course will hide that scene unless HUGO goes on TV proclaiming he was ripped off. Ah, forget it, the sheeple could care less, they'll line up for the new ipod5.

Incidentally Vancouver Gold Bullion was packed down the stairs today..buying or selling, not sure which.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:23pm


trying to get the emoticons to display.

I'm not doing something right.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:32pm

Weak mining stocks?

Gold/Silver are at and close to highs and input costs are way down (oil/nat gas/interest rates for funding development, etc.). This should translate to great earnings but the miners don't get any love? Is it the Venezuela nationalization freaking everyone out?

Also, I would think that if the worst case plays out and physical isn't readily available then miners would sky rocket. I'm puzzled to the disconnect. Anyone have thoughts to help enlighten me?? Anyone, Anyone, Bueller?

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:36pm

all doom and no play makes Jack a dull boy - @pbreed

As with all things, moderation or 'golden rule' is key. re: consumption vs. stacking -- think that one through a bit. The entire global economy is built on the premise of ever-expanding, debt-load increasing fiat currency. It's simply reached a level where the exponential curve is just too steep -- if everyone in existence on the planet immediately spent ALL of their money, it would still not be enough.

BTW, your description is not far from my own predicament -- the presence (if only virtual) of others in agreement with one's understanding of the truth can be mesmerizing/addictive. But surrounding yourself with like-minded people all the time can have its drawbacks as well.

Learn a new skill. Study a new language. Visit a new (rural) place off the beaten path. Build friendships with real, honest, 3D flesh and blood people in your neighborhood. Enjoy life while also preparing for its inevitable downturns. Focus on your family, or creating one. If you can afford to take the next 12 months to visit the world, do it (or some version of it). Just make sure to visit at least one or two self-sufficient communities, and study a) how they do it, b) what aspect is vulnerable that may change.

Bro D
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:37pm

More than the little engine that could...

Silver and gold are freight trains will chug along higher and higher.

Chug-a-lug ~ Roger Miller

Chug-a-lug, Turd!

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:47pm


maybe this will cheer you up :-)

Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
WYO Silver
Aug 18, 2011 - 7:47pm


Regarding your remarks at the end of the last thread ("Clarifying Socialism and Right Wing"):

Thank you. Very well said. Hopefully, you enlightened a few people. Nazism and Communism are just two sides of the same coin. They're both based on the Marxist doctrine.

Fascism is socialism with a capitalist veneer.

Again, great comments.......

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:50pm

Dr Jerome

I bought myself a 1992 Libertado yesterday for $1 over spot along with 2 Maples for $1 over spot as well. I have a friend who opened a "We Buy Gold" shop and will sell me any silver he gets for spot or a little above.

In fact, I brought my Libertado to work today, occasionally touch it and have showed a number of coworkers.


Can we not defile Turd's posts with porn? I didn't watch the video but assume that's what it is.

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:51pm

Indian monsoons and gold

First, Turd earns his props on a daily basis. Your opinion reports get more awesome all the time; thanks, TF.

Now who has a weather and agricultural report on India? Monsoons make the world go round in the home of tandoori chicken. One talking head on CNBS today suggested that a high crop yield in India would produce increased demand for physical gold. Makes sense to me; might as well gather all the info we can, right?

Aug 18, 2011 - 7:52pm


Can't figure out the emoticons. Duh!

I downloaded the free program. I don't see the emoticons available to cut/paste.

I tried originally to right click, copy and paste it into the image url but a "paste" option never was available. Tried many times.


Aug 18, 2011 - 7:56pm



Aug 18, 2011 - 7:59pm

DPH ...It should work if you

DPH ...It should work if you just copy the icon picture and then paste here.. ??.. ...That's how it works for me. ..They have lots of code there for you to use.. but I couldn't get that to work.. just the c&p of the smiley.

EricO about being in the doghouse. ...I found that song strangely soothing.. "/ .....Yum.. lasagne sounds SO GOOD!

Can someone tell me why on earth it takes optionshouse FOUR days to get your money transfer into your account??? ..Drives me a bit crazy. I did this transfer last Saturday....which of course I'm aware didn't get processed until Monday ..but still.. ..Thursday today and no money deposit yet showing.. ....but it's debited from my checking account already days ago. ....Is there a better options service that doesn't take so long or is this par for the course with all ACH transfers? ....3 days to make the transfer they say.. and then another day before they release it. sigh.

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:00pm

There is a sense...

...of enjoyment from this too, as crazy as it sounds. For once you have a taste of the truth... you want and crave more of it... like a drug. Its very much bitter/sweet... and there is no turning back. Would you really want to?

Strange Daze - its not that you think strange things are happening in this world - rather, strange things are happening in this world more then you and I think.


Aug 18, 2011 - 8:02pm

Testing- PurpleHaze

The ones on the toolbar above the text seem to work ok. Is your message set-up in HTML?

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:03pm

Think I have it

I did the exact same thing before and it wouldn't work repeatedly.

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:03pm

DPH.. I didn't download

DPH.. I didn't download anything.. ..I just c&p right from the website. ...Try that.. I think you will find that it is much simpler than pasting code. I don't even do anything with the image url ...just c&p over the image on the website and then paste it here directly into the comment box...

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:04pm

DPH.. I didn't download

Ooopies.. ..double post..

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:08pm


You need a doom filter (both on here and other places). Don't get caught up in it too much, just have a positive attitude and try to look beyond that. It's fine to get facts, but I feel like sometimes the sky is falling mentality, and overdose of unsourced bullshit ranging from youtube, to ZH, to is posted in excess. Not saying it's necessarily what 'some' continuously post.. but it often reflects what is going on in their own lives (oh wow, look, an ignore user button - that ought to shorten this thread a bit).

I look forward to many members posts here on a daily basis, whether the realize it or not.. There are others that post - I don't even bother reading it any more.

Just take it in stride, there is a difference from being informed and being absorbed. Definitely do not sacrifice your run time for that!

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:10pm
sweet cheeses
Aug 18, 2011 - 8:11pm

Just wait for it, it builds :)

Take your mind off the crazy for a few minutes and watch the insane ups and downs of Danny Macaskill...WOW!

Danny Macaskill - Industrial Revolutions
Aug 18, 2011 - 8:14pm

DPH ...LOL.. .....That's what

DPH ...LOL.. .....That's what I'm talking about!

Aug 18, 2011 - 8:15pm


I wonder if WAG, hot on the heals of the canned ham, had a sale on whip cream... Would PMs drop, on Turdites flight to corner the market on whip cream and boats?


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