Wallowing In The Mire

Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - 9:31am

What the true proverb says has happened to them: “The dog returns to its own vomit, and the sow, after washing herself, returns to wallow in the mire.” 2 Peter 2:22

Ole Turd ain't much of a biblical scholar but I'm pretty sure Saint Peter wasn't prophesying about the decline of the U.S. dollar when he wrote this. But...

Ole Pigatha sure is living up (down) to her name today. We are getting very close to a test of the lows from back in early May. IF those lows fail, the Pig will rapidly decline toward critical and final support around 72. If you're wondering, the all-time, spot low is 70.81, found back in March of 2008. Not coincidentally, this was when gold was breaking the $1000 level for the first time. If it heads back there again soon, and it looks like it might, it will likely correlate with gold tackling the $2000 level for the first time.

The PMs reached my short term objectives overnight. Yesterday, I told you to look for a test of the 1800 level and we got an early morning peak today of almost 1798. I also mentioned that silver would catch some EE-inspired resistance at 40.40. It reached 40.38. They both since tailed off and I'd expect that to continue.

Now, don't get me wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see the metals catch a bid this morning and plow right through those levels. They might. Someday very soon, they will. I just don't think that today is the day. A typical advance from this type of technical position would be to pull back a little here. Gold could drop back toward 1770-75. It might even see 1760-65. From there, though, I look for the next advance that will carry it through 1800 and beyond. Silver is the same. The 40.40 level is all that stands between silver and a retest of the resistance near 42. It will take solid effort to get through there and I don't think that the momentum is there today to pull it off. Let's look for a pullback under 40, maybe to 39.75 or so. From there, silver should catapult forward and break the EE line at 40.40.

The general commodity rally we forecast last week is certainly in full swing. Crude is back up to 88.50 this morning and the December corn just made new contract highs yesterday. Expect this rally to continue for another 2-3 weeks.

Lastly, someone emailed me this link. Probably more than a few of you will find this interesting:


Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2011 - 1:21pm

Docs G&J

DocJ - Hey, go for it. If you have the skill sets and the fiat/pm cushion... and if you're no longer satisfied being the good professor, do like Nike and just do it. So there's your nudge. :)

Doc G - I've often wondered what I'd do if I were a physician. Having a few doc friends, I'm aware of the enormous regulations, certifications, red-tape, insurance, threat of litigation, taxes and pressure... not to mention all the other obstacles placed in front of small business. Is there a possibility of opening a private practice for a certain number of cash-only clientele who would be willing and able to forego the usual hospital affiliations and litigation heavy circumstance by signing a "hold harmless" contract for service? Maybe an attorney can give some insight.

Having owned a business with as many as 50 employees for two decades (loving it until the industry changed), I've witnessed the ever increasing burdens added by the government. Over the last few years the requirement of more paperwork, more regulation, more taxes, more fees, more stifling nonsense from the government I finally had enough and sold my business last year. I miss the steady stream of fiat but am so thankful, even though I sold for roughly half of what the business would have brought just a few years ago.

Long story... but on the business side, the niche piece of the industry that I was in has been getting hammered since late 2007, since it is directly effected by the economy. When consumers spend less retail product manufacturers tighten their belts and reduce their non-essential budgets. When that happens the marketing/brand development industry gets squeezed. When that happens (and it did), the choices are; get much smaller, get larger or go. I went.

I'm happy to be out, the employees all kept their jobs and life is good. No regrets. Maybe I'll go help DocJ with one of his projects after I've completed my first mission.

Tom L ¤
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:24pm


Nothing like going all in on an opinion. I mean if they're going to put you up against the wall why not go out swinging right?

stoned for saying jehovah (life of brian)

Start at the 1:50 mark.


Tom L
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:27pm

Dent and Prechter

It's offensive to me that these guys can still make a living at spewing their nonsense. They are proof positive that there is indeed a 'sucker born every minute.' If they had any shame they would do charity work for the rest of their lives to their subscribers whose money they've lost.

Of course, they have no shame, they keep speaking in public.


Aug 17, 2011 - 1:32pm

Two Traitors, talkin' "Terror"

Are these 2 cretins perfect together in a single shot or what? The EE is so desperate they are now showing their hand openly. I have little doubt they'll act in the next 60 days. And then just watch folks: a big, bad white guy will prove what everyone in DC already knows: the American taxpayerus honkysaurus is actually to blame for all of the world's ills. Big Sis and DHS have now decided on their Boogie Man. It's Whitey. Looks like Norway was just the warm up act. Btw, don't you just love how the "white supremacist" guy winds up killing no one but.... white folks?

The eventual persecution of white Christians, especially gun owning ones, is right on track. I've been saying this: WE are being imaged and set up as "the new Kulaks". Denouncement proceeds Liquidation. Just look at the heavy handed Stalinism that the Ron Paul media ban reveals. Or the ongoing non-reporting of the total meltdown of 5 nuclear reactors, 1 of them with a plutonium hybrid fuel. Don't forget how many of our rights have already been stripped or nullified by our "courts". Hell they even got rid of Habeas Corpus, established in the Magna Carta. In 1215!!! Realize this: the framework and infrastructure for genocide, from Legal to Physical, is now in place and awaiting "further developments".

See friends, it's not the banksters, or the international Money Power who are the true threat to "Freedom". It isn't GE who very efficiently polluted half the world with deadly radioactive isotopes via their wonderful Mark I vessel designs and 666Sigma "quality controls". It isn't the global Narcotics or Arms merchants. Nor is it Human Slavers or ocean strip miners. Apparently, its not even their own creation, Al-Ciada, anymore.

Just look in the mirror Joe and Jane Sixpack, Tom and Tammy Doe. Because to hear Obottom and Big Sis tell it, turns out the Real Enemy..... is You.

cnn - barack obama: 'we have to stay vigilant' against the "lone wolf"
Vernon Wormer
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:33pm

@ shill

You are singing my song. I know a lot of people which is why I don't like many of them. I take care of my kids, my wife, my parents, and tolerate my siblings when they don't think I'm wearing the tin foil. My wife laughs at my bad karma but I have found that the more I try to do the right thing, the more I get screwed. I don't think I have what it takes to quit trying altogether, but damn it gets harder every day.

I teach in the hood. There are a few worthy of help but the large majority of my students and their parents are users, not producers. Students with $200 sneakers will not bring pencil and paper to class because they cannot afford it! WTF! They have an entitlement mentality and I fear for my safety when the welfare checks stop coming.

I have tried to build 'community' in our neighborhood and not many get it. The people I talk to look at me funny and give me polite nods. The vast majority have state jobs and are convinced that the government will take care of them. My god California sucks!

Rant off

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:35pm

S&P futures DOWN

like a TURD in a well!!!

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em...LOL

Dr G Larry
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:38pm


Nice ideas, but regarding a "hold harmless" clause--that doesn't do much. Much of the pain and sorrow associated with healthcare lawsuits is probably due to the actual negotiation and trial process itself, not the verdict. In other words, basically anybody can sue me, regardless of any clauses they've signed, and I would still have to pay for a defense, miss work, etc. Such a trial can last for months. That's why it may actually be beneficial to settle in some cases. But therein lies the issue--the litigious among us have found their golden goose!

And the real kicker is that patients won't care what the outcome or verdict is. Nobody wants to see a healthcare professional that has been sued. Once your name has been drug through the mud, you are dirty for a long time.

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:39pm

@Dr G

Dear Dr. G,
You sound like a really nice guy. If PM discussions freak out your friends (we all know about that) and make your wife slightly ill at ease, perhaps you might consider killing two birds with one stone. Here's a link to an Indian jeweler's 22k gold chain link necklaces located in Atlanta.


Generally, Indian jewelers tend to have the best prices that I've seen for 22k gold pieces. In some Indian jewelry stores, they will weigh the chain and price it according to its weight.

Were you to buy a nice gold piece for your wife, she'd be happy with the gift, you'd be happy with the gold and you'd have another way to talk about PMs with your friends that might not scare them so much. I have a friend who always knocks his gold high school ring while saying, "Best investment I ever made." It's a great conversation starter and intro to PMs with the general public who don't know much about them. Jewelry is something most everybody is comfortable with. Plus, you'd get bragging rights. Just a thought.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother Tom L
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:40pm

a sucker born every minute

a sucker born every minute and then reincarnated too.

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:43pm

a call for less empathy & compassion

For those of you who think I'm short on feelings, empathy, and compassion, fine. There's been too much of that stuff going around since the 1960s (at the expense of common sense).

angry-man-syndrome apparent this morning. . . "too much empathy & compassion going around"?

many would argue otherwise, including the young girl in ScottJ's video. . . maybe do a ratio,

self : rest of world - and see what your deserved portion looks like - put yourself in another's space & see if any compassion will come your way when needed - what goes around, comes around.

there can never be too much empathy, it's a necessary trait to humanity - and sorely lacking in these times by far too many.

Dr G
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:44pm

regarding Dent

How in the hell could this be the top for the metals? Nothing has been fixed! He's a moron. With the metals:

A (problem) = an increase in B (metals price).

The As are getting larger and more numerous by the day. Therefore, B will continue to go up. It's that easy minus any manipulation.

ScottJ Doctor J
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:48pm

Re: Euro Collapse leading to US Collapse

Hello Doc J,

While by no means does anyone really have the whole truth on the system, I find the most clairty when looking at the structure of the western-world private central banks. The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Bank of International Settlements, and all other fiat-based central banks in the western democracy are are interconnected. These "independent" central banks happen to have the same management in charge, and the management is just trying to extend and pretend while implementing the steps of a new and more powerful ponzi scheme (private banks lending currency to nations on interest... give me a break). The management in charge of these currencies does not care about the ins and outs of the petty details within "this or that country," rather it focuses on the macro perception game that strategically yields power to the monopoly masters who run the show. The best way to gain power is to create a problem and then provide the solution of your choice, especially with a fearful public (not to mention if the public was to be falsely lead into a world war further psychologically attacking the weak-minded).

It has been mentioned by several sources I follow, specifically Lindsey Williams, that the Euro will collapse, and then the dollar will have several weeks before it too goes down. This would presumably make way for the proposed UN created/sponsored world bank that may be completely digital, imposed in times of "high fear." It is imperative that this does not happen. We need competition in currency, a sound currency, and a free market instead.

The reason why France or any of these european countries could bring down the US is becuase all of these banks are intertwined with nonsense derivatives that don't accurately represent long-run asset value. When you have it burst somewhere, especially large European country with heavy activity in the worldwide financial market, you will get a domino affect. That is why you are seeing this large implementations of liquidity to the european banks/bond markets.

In short, global easing leading to the inflationary destruction of current fiat currencies, or a deflationary depression that wipes out everything. Sadly, we will most likely end up in the first one... as a deflationary depression would give up the power that those who manipulate it now have been seeking for so long... and I just don't see that happening.

Kinda just a run through, this topic is very complex as one might imagine. No way for any of us to truly know, unless we saw and understood every aspect of it. Maybe Tyler Durden has good insight on this :)

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:49pm
Tom L ewc58
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:51pm

That Lone Wolf

Will be a paid employee of the CIA.

That's the bitch of it all.


cpnscarlet 154_silver
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:54pm

@154_silver - Wrong

Uh...NO! Been there, done that, have the T-shirt. There can be too much empathy especially when the right side of the brain starts negating anything the left side brings up. True charity and compassion has been hijacked by do-goodism and emotional pandering by charlatans. A wise man balances "feed the hungry and clothe the naked" with "those who will not work shall not eat". There is a balance in this, one that we, as a culture, and a nation lost long ago. IMO, almost every plea for compassion now is a veiled threat/lie by someone wanting to grab your wallet so they don't have to be productive. IMHO, there are worthy charities - my favorites are St Judes's CRH and Wycliffe Bible Translators. And no government should be involved in ministering to the poor - that's the work we owe to our fellow human beings (with wisdom leading the way). The same goes for education, but that's another topic.

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:02pm

Yawning @ this 'raid'

Can we at least touch 20DMA please?

154_silver cpnscarlet
Aug 17, 2011 - 2:10pm

@ cpnscarlet & friends

yours is a very popular rant nowadays, particularly in the US, where the sense of entitlement is strong - AND runs the gamut from "poor" to "rich" - I don't think you're much different than those you & others appear to despise in your sense of what you deserve.

I'll not argue this with you or anyone as it's simply differing opinions, I merely wanted to add to those posted here since it appears "empathy & compassion" were getting the "FU" treatment this morning, to coin a popular blog meme here.

will just add, it's interesting you have "worthy charities" that include Christian / Bible works - I'm sure there's a call for compassion & empathy in those pages, and some stories about rich men & kingdom entrance requirements, etc. etc.

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:10pm


"Everyone must pay their fair share"

In a world filled with ridiculousness, it's often hard for me to adequately characterize propaganda so absurd. Let me ask you this: how does one quantify the distributive fairness of something that is itself illegal and inherently unfair? (Silly question, the answer is clearly whether the taxpayer owns a corporate jet).

The federal income tax is fraud, and yet the class warfare propaganda is so good that they get people to hate each other over which portion of the fraud that they each should pay! Naturally we can't expect them to frame the issue in this manner as the income tax is a central pillar of the debt-currency ponzi. Unfortunately for them, the scheme has run amok to the point where 100% taxation would not be enough to pay off the national debt. Perhaps it is time to move on from allowing the taxation issue to be framed in terms of the "fair" amount of graduated fraud to be paid by 99% of Americans, rich and poor alike.

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:12pm

Quitting My Job

To those of you who have recently quit their job, or thinking about quitting, I can totally relate. You see, I recently quit my mostly stable guv'mint job a couple weeks ago. And as some one mentioned earlier, though I loved what I did, many a days I just went through the motions of being there. It was not fair to the taxpayers and it wasn't fair to me.

Considering that I have been working for someone ("the man") for 30 plus years, with the last 11 being at the job I just quit, it took eight months to come to that decision. I did A LOT of soul searching before I came to the conclusion that it's time to move on with my life. To finally walk into my bosses office and hand in my resignation. And as I fully expected, basically everyone at work thought I was crazy to give up my career. I was asked over and over, "is something wrong?" I would think to myself, "nothing is wrong with me, but something is definitely wrong with the direction we are headed."

A big part of quitting was seeing the writing on the wall for the six or so years and especially since the beginning of the year. The events over the last month (US debt situation, events in Eurozone, MENA, etc.) have only confirmed that we are headed for troubled waters. Not to mention, but I will, the current trend of attacking government workers and their "gold plated" pensions.

After quitting my job it felt like a huge burden has been lifted off my shoulders. Though I don't have a steady paycheck anymore (I derive my income from trading now) and I watch what I spend very closely, I feel much happier now. A sense of freedom that I haven't felt in a long time. I also think of this time as a new beginning with new possibilities. A time to go back to school and take classes in welding, machining, and business. Because in the end, I want to contribute more to humanity then shuffling paper around.

I'll leave you with one final note. I read a number of books during the process of deciding what I wanted to do with my life. I encourage all those who want more out of life to read the book titled, appropriately enough, Three Feet From Gold. It was very inspiring.

"People believe their doubts, but doubt their beliefs. Believe in yourself and the world will believe in you." - Olson, Three Feet From Gold

"Without taking risks their can be no progress." - DM


Aug 17, 2011 - 2:17pm

@DefiniteMaybe Good luck to

@DefiniteMaybe Good luck to you friend. A lot of people would probably like to do what you did. It takes courage. And it seems like a lot of people were living in fear where you worked judging by the reactions of you leaving.

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:41pm

Gold bubble

The Wells Fargo article was a hoot. I have seen no evidence that anyone of the main stream media outlets or major investment companies called the bubble in housing. Instead they were saying people should by all the house they could because it would go up in value. Yet they continue to call the gold bubble. When you find out your neighbors have maxed out their credit cards to buy gold, then we have a bubble. When a majority of the guests on Squawkbox are saying buy gold, then we have a bubble. When almost every investment advisor is pushing gold like they were tech stocks in 2000, then we have a bubble.

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:44pm


When you find out your neighbors have maxed out their credit cards to buy gold, then we have a bubble. When a majority of the guests on Squawkbox are saying buy gold, then we have a bubble. When almost every investment advisor is pushing gold like they were tech stocks in 2000, then we have a bubble.

Nah. We won't have a bubble under any of those scenarios, we'll have a serious PM shortage and PMs will go even higher. Srsly. ;)

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:50pm

Sane mind saw the demise coming long ago

Selected quotes by people like Alexander Fraser Tytler

"The American Republic will endure until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:52pm

Marketwatch> Venezuela’s Chavez wants in on gold action

Venezuela’s Chavez wants in on gold action

August 17, 2011, 2:43 PM

President Hugo Chavez announced Wednesday that he will nationalize Venezuela’s gold industry in a bid to apparently benefit from gold’s phenomenal gains, according to state-run AVN news agency. And why not? He’s already nationalized several industries, including oil and telecommunications.

His decision comes at time when gold’s at a record high. December gold GC1Z ended Wednesday’s session at $1,793.80 an ounce. Gold prices have gained more than 25% year to date as investors scramble to find less risky investments.

And Venezuela has lots of gold – about $12 billion to $13 billion dollars in gold reserves, according to Chavez, who also said his country “can’t allow it to continue to be taken.”

Chavez has also made it clear that he’s not taking chances. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, that Venezuela plans to transfer tons of gold from European banks as well as billions of dollars in cash reserves from banks in Russia, China and Brazil to its central bank vaults.

– Myra Saefong

Animal Sacrifice
Aug 17, 2011 - 2:57pm


I'm not telling anyone what to do, but my life works a WHOLE LOT better when I feel loving compassion for everyone around me without getting caught up emotionally in their predicaments that are offering them opportunities for their growth.

It's also important for me to try to remember that we add JUST AS MUCH suffering to the world when we take offense as when we give it.


Maferafun Ogun

Aug 17, 2011 - 3:00pm

Chavez: Now or never, maybe?

I believe he just returned from Cuba for cancer treatments etc.

What if it's no more complicated then him wanting to do whatever he can do while he can? He may have decided to accelerate some plans he had just in case he gets sick again or maybe he's sicker then first thought.

Either way, if your him, you probably want to go out with a bang and be a difference maker and a thorn in the U.S. side or any other anglo- american for that matter if it accomplishes the same thing. Disrupting the gold market would have that effect if he knew, or if it was widely known in sovereign circles, that London gold delivery of that magnitude isn't really possible.

At some point, something unexpected is going to happen in the PM market that disturbs the entire apple cart.

Aug 17, 2011 - 3:04pm

Gold Jewelry

That Indian place looked like good pricing for jewelry - 30% over spot. That is good vs. what I usually see, am I right? Other than buying from people for closer to spot, for new jewelry what is best you see?

Aug 17, 2011 - 3:14pm

Goldman's problems don't go away - they do.

Turd, Thanks for the opportunity to provide perhaps a different spin on GS. GS has much larger issues to deal with - that being the paradigm your Blog and others bring to their once cloaked behavior. The defining moment that I see as the beginning of the end for GS was the SEC fine, while puny, put the camels nose under the tent. Their credibility was destroyed and then clients began questioning whether they too were being suckered. Since that event we have price destruction, law suits, shut out of offerings, more lawsuits including today's; CIFG Assurance North sues Goldman andyesterdays; AllState sues Goldman for Crap Securities. These suits will keep piling on and GS will be a shell of it's former self if it stays alive. Bad actor behavior in the capital markets cannot survive (it may take time) in the internet world and the speed at which they are found out increases as the Turd Communities educate and become more pro-active. I am encouraged. Jimymac Wake-up, get educated, take action!

Aug 17, 2011 - 3:15pm


Indians buying/selling gold are very savvy. We first started buying jewelry from them around 1985-ish. Their prices can't be beat and if you can, you're in a very good position to bargain with them.

NW VIEW DefiniteMaybe
Aug 17, 2011 - 3:21pm

@ DefiniteMaybe

I quit my state government job in 1974. After college, I went directly into becoming a state highway construction inspector. I saw the huge waste of taxpayers funds and did a little whistle blowing to a few but was just told to do my job and shut up. I had a stay at home wife, two small children and no fiat or P.M.'s. My boss at the state said "you will be back within six months begging for a job". I went into real estate sales, bought half the company in time and then started upper end home construction until the BOOM was over. The day I walked out of that state office building, I felt like I had been freed from sin and bondage. You did the right thing but it would have been better 20 years ago.

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