Wallowing In The Mire

Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - 9:31am

What the true proverb says has happened to them: “The dog returns to its own vomit, and the sow, after washing herself, returns to wallow in the mire.” 2 Peter 2:22

Ole Turd ain't much of a biblical scholar but I'm pretty sure Saint Peter wasn't prophesying about the decline of the U.S. dollar when he wrote this. But...

Ole Pigatha sure is living up (down) to her name today. We are getting very close to a test of the lows from back in early May. IF those lows fail, the Pig will rapidly decline toward critical and final support around 72. If you're wondering, the all-time, spot low is 70.81, found back in March of 2008. Not coincidentally, this was when gold was breaking the $1000 level for the first time. If it heads back there again soon, and it looks like it might, it will likely correlate with gold tackling the $2000 level for the first time.

The PMs reached my short term objectives overnight. Yesterday, I told you to look for a test of the 1800 level and we got an early morning peak today of almost 1798. I also mentioned that silver would catch some EE-inspired resistance at 40.40. It reached 40.38. They both since tailed off and I'd expect that to continue.

Now, don't get me wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see the metals catch a bid this morning and plow right through those levels. They might. Someday very soon, they will. I just don't think that today is the day. A typical advance from this type of technical position would be to pull back a little here. Gold could drop back toward 1770-75. It might even see 1760-65. From there, though, I look for the next advance that will carry it through 1800 and beyond. Silver is the same. The 40.40 level is all that stands between silver and a retest of the resistance near 42. It will take solid effort to get through there and I don't think that the momentum is there today to pull it off. Let's look for a pullback under 40, maybe to 39.75 or so. From there, silver should catapult forward and break the EE line at 40.40.

The general commodity rally we forecast last week is certainly in full swing. Crude is back up to 88.50 this morning and the December corn just made new contract highs yesterday. Expect this rally to continue for another 2-3 weeks.

Lastly, someone emailed me this link. Probably more than a few of you will find this interesting:


Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2011 - 2:10pm

@ cpnscarlet & friends

yours is a very popular rant nowadays, particularly in the US, where the sense of entitlement is strong - AND runs the gamut from "poor" to "rich" - I don't think you're much different than those you & others appear to despise in your sense of what you deserve.

I'll not argue this with you or anyone as it's simply differing opinions, I merely wanted to add to those posted here since it appears "empathy & compassion" were getting the "FU" treatment this morning, to coin a popular blog meme here.

will just add, it's interesting you have "worthy charities" that include Christian / Bible works - I'm sure there's a call for compassion & empathy in those pages, and some stories about rich men & kingdom entrance requirements, etc. etc.

Aug 17, 2011 - 2:02pm

Yawning @ this 'raid'

Can we at least touch 20DMA please?

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:54pm

@154_silver - Wrong

Uh...NO! Been there, done that, have the T-shirt. There can be too much empathy especially when the right side of the brain starts negating anything the left side brings up. True charity and compassion has been hijacked by do-goodism and emotional pandering by charlatans. A wise man balances "feed the hungry and clothe the naked" with "those who will not work shall not eat". There is a balance in this, one that we, as a culture, and a nation lost long ago. IMO, almost every plea for compassion now is a veiled threat/lie by someone wanting to grab your wallet so they don't have to be productive. IMHO, there are worthy charities - my favorites are St Judes's CRH and Wycliffe Bible Translators. And no government should be involved in ministering to the poor - that's the work we owe to our fellow human beings (with wisdom leading the way). The same goes for education, but that's another topic.

Tom Lewc58
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:51pm

That Lone Wolf

Will be a paid employee of the CIA.

That's the bitch of it all.


Aug 17, 2011 - 1:49pm
ScottJDoctor J
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:48pm

Re: Euro Collapse leading to US Collapse

Hello Doc J,

While by no means does anyone really have the whole truth on the system, I find the most clairty when looking at the structure of the western-world private central banks. The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Bank of International Settlements, and all other fiat-based central banks in the western democracy are are interconnected. These "independent" central banks happen to have the same management in charge, and the management is just trying to extend and pretend while implementing the steps of a new and more powerful ponzi scheme (private banks lending currency to nations on interest... give me a break). The management in charge of these currencies does not care about the ins and outs of the petty details within "this or that country," rather it focuses on the macro perception game that strategically yields power to the monopoly masters who run the show. The best way to gain power is to create a problem and then provide the solution of your choice, especially with a fearful public (not to mention if the public was to be falsely lead into a world war further psychologically attacking the weak-minded).

It has been mentioned by several sources I follow, specifically Lindsey Williams, that the Euro will collapse, and then the dollar will have several weeks before it too goes down. This would presumably make way for the proposed UN created/sponsored world bank that may be completely digital, imposed in times of "high fear." It is imperative that this does not happen. We need competition in currency, a sound currency, and a free market instead.

The reason why France or any of these european countries could bring down the US is becuase all of these banks are intertwined with nonsense derivatives that don't accurately represent long-run asset value. When you have it burst somewhere, especially large European country with heavy activity in the worldwide financial market, you will get a domino affect. That is why you are seeing this large implementations of liquidity to the european banks/bond markets.

In short, global easing leading to the inflationary destruction of current fiat currencies, or a deflationary depression that wipes out everything. Sadly, we will most likely end up in the first one... as a deflationary depression would give up the power that those who manipulate it now have been seeking for so long... and I just don't see that happening.

Kinda just a run through, this topic is very complex as one might imagine. No way for any of us to truly know, unless we saw and understood every aspect of it. Maybe Tyler Durden has good insight on this :)

Dr G
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:44pm

regarding Dent

How in the hell could this be the top for the metals? Nothing has been fixed! He's a moron. With the metals:

A (problem) = an increase in B (metals price).

The As are getting larger and more numerous by the day. Therefore, B will continue to go up. It's that easy minus any manipulation.

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:43pm

a call for less empathy & compassion

For those of you who think I'm short on feelings, empathy, and compassion, fine. There's been too much of that stuff going around since the 1960s (at the expense of common sense).

angry-man-syndrome apparent this morning. . . "too much empathy & compassion going around"?

many would argue otherwise, including the young girl in ScottJ's video. . . maybe do a ratio,

self : rest of world - and see what your deserved portion looks like - put yourself in another's space & see if any compassion will come your way when needed - what goes around, comes around.

there can never be too much empathy, it's a necessary trait to humanity - and sorely lacking in these times by far too many.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brotherTom L
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:40pm

a sucker born every minute

a sucker born every minute and then reincarnated too.

Aug 17, 2011 - 1:39pm

@Dr G

Dear Dr. G,
You sound like a really nice guy. If PM discussions freak out your friends (we all know about that) and make your wife slightly ill at ease, perhaps you might consider killing two birds with one stone. Here's a link to an Indian jeweler's 22k gold chain link necklaces located in Atlanta.


Generally, Indian jewelers tend to have the best prices that I've seen for 22k gold pieces. In some Indian jewelry stores, they will weigh the chain and price it according to its weight.

Were you to buy a nice gold piece for your wife, she'd be happy with the gift, you'd be happy with the gold and you'd have another way to talk about PMs with your friends that might not scare them so much. I have a friend who always knocks his gold high school ring while saying, "Best investment I ever made." It's a great conversation starter and intro to PMs with the general public who don't know much about them. Jewelry is something most everybody is comfortable with. Plus, you'd get bragging rights. Just a thought.

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