Wallowing In The Mire

Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - 9:31am

What the true proverb says has happened to them: “The dog returns to its own vomit, and the sow, after washing herself, returns to wallow in the mire.” 2 Peter 2:22

Ole Turd ain't much of a biblical scholar but I'm pretty sure Saint Peter wasn't prophesying about the decline of the U.S. dollar when he wrote this. But...

Ole Pigatha sure is living up (down) to her name today. We are getting very close to a test of the lows from back in early May. IF those lows fail, the Pig will rapidly decline toward critical and final support around 72. If you're wondering, the all-time, spot low is 70.81, found back in March of 2008. Not coincidentally, this was when gold was breaking the $1000 level for the first time. If it heads back there again soon, and it looks like it might, it will likely correlate with gold tackling the $2000 level for the first time.

The PMs reached my short term objectives overnight. Yesterday, I told you to look for a test of the 1800 level and we got an early morning peak today of almost 1798. I also mentioned that silver would catch some EE-inspired resistance at 40.40. It reached 40.38. They both since tailed off and I'd expect that to continue.

Now, don't get me wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see the metals catch a bid this morning and plow right through those levels. They might. Someday very soon, they will. I just don't think that today is the day. A typical advance from this type of technical position would be to pull back a little here. Gold could drop back toward 1770-75. It might even see 1760-65. From there, though, I look for the next advance that will carry it through 1800 and beyond. Silver is the same. The 40.40 level is all that stands between silver and a retest of the resistance near 42. It will take solid effort to get through there and I don't think that the momentum is there today to pull it off. Let's look for a pullback under 40, maybe to 39.75 or so. From there, silver should catapult forward and break the EE line at 40.40.

The general commodity rally we forecast last week is certainly in full swing. Crude is back up to 88.50 this morning and the December corn just made new contract highs yesterday. Expect this rally to continue for another 2-3 weeks.

Lastly, someone emailed me this link. Probably more than a few of you will find this interesting:


Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2011 - 10:13am

$61.55 high on the GDX  my

$61.55 high on the GDX my call 61.56 from here Gravy :)

Good luck

Tom Lcpnscarlet
Aug 17, 2011 - 10:13am


First off, I want to congratulate you on your courage for doing that. That takes nads sir, and some amount of principle to walk away from the last stage of corpse looting that's going on.

I got laid off from a good job in Feb. and have to do the same thing. Live by my wits and my skills as a trader/farmer. I'm much happier for it even if everyday is a struggle against the crappy cash-flow situation.

Good luck and be well.


Aug 17, 2011 - 10:18am

Hail the Turd

Thanks, Turd! Great tools for the tool belt and great article. Appreciate all you do.

Pls tell Mrs. Turd hi

<cheering for silver>

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:19am

Me thinks Walgreens is

having to find back up inventory from Agatha!

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:28am

Yes, Leaving a job due to your convicitions....

... is to be commended. I'm VERY close to doing the same. But, it's not so brave. I've been working over 30 years now and have saved up a bit and haven't borrowed beyond my means. I can now walk away from it all without much worry. I'd like to devote my time to volunteering to something that matters rather than being a tax donkey for a corrupted system. But, I'm not yet sure what form this will take yet....

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:28am

Nice work TF/ todays 9:15 a.m. PM take down

Thanks for charts and biblical touch right out of the gate.

The beat down in the PM's was a little hard to stomach between 9:15 and 9:30 this a.m. AGAIN. They are working over the options market big time.

Who is watching the markets at the SEC or where ever they are supposed to be monitored for improprieties?

Does the U.S. have a working Attorney General? What critical issue's are they exactly tackling these days? Doesn't the blatant manipulation of a major commodities market, among other things, warrant some kind of action? Who is our AG? Stevie Wonder? (they'll never do anything unless Paul gets in, period)

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:33am


she finally gave in

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:33am

Iowa Straw Poll Results ~ Ron Paul - Strong 2nd

@ScottJ and all others who posted Jon Stewart's vid on the media dissing of Ron Paul:


Here's the official results from Iowa (from https://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/13/news/la-pn-straw-numbers-20110813)

1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)

2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)

3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)

4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)

5. Herman Cain (1456, 8.62%)

6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in

7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)

8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)

9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)

10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)

The media makes me sick ~ I am seriously thinking of calling and complaining VERY LOUDLY. Anyone got links to where we can leave comments to those media for the completely BLATANT misreporting?

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:36am

>>Does the U.S. have a

>>Does the U.S. have a working Attorney General? What critical issue's are they exactly tackling these days? Doesn't the blatant manipulation of a major commodities market, among other things, warrant some kind of action?

Hello PurpleHaze.

What are you complaining about man? If it weren't for those beatdowns there would be no obvious entry points each day :)

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:36am

Got screwed out of my job in

Got screwed out of my job in Apr. trading and a part time biz are doing it for me right now. Agree w/ "something is coming". It's palpable, you can feel it. Happy to be home working in the garden, vac sealing etc. When it hits u'll be glad not to be 50-75 miles away at some job.

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