Feeling Good, Louis!
The Turd has had himself a couple of nice days. With Sep silver near 38.50, I gave you $44 by Labor Day. It remains to be seen if it will make it but I've already made a tidy little profit. Gold has been even better. I gave you a bottom near 1725 late last week and, since, gold has rallied over $60. That'll work for daddy, too. I sincerely hope you've been able to make a little fiat along the way, also. Now, the $18,000,000,000,000 question is...where do we go from here?
The way the gold chart looks, I can't imagine that it won't trade up to and even through 1800 overnight or tomorrow. Headline risk can, of course, change everything. However, there is absolutely nothing on the chart to stop it so I expect it to happen. Typically, when something rolls to a peak like gold did last week and then hits a speedbump, you get a rally to a potential double-top. This is exactly what I expect to happen. Gold will get to 1800, maybe even 1810+ and then The Cartel will unleash the monkeys is an attempt to paint the double top. They'll most likely be successful, at least for a few days. I'd expect gold to tap the ceiling and then pull back later this week or early next into solid buying support near 1775. From that base, when all the top-calling douchebags are out in full force, gold will reverse and charge to new highs. This is what I'd typically expect but, as you know, nothing about this late summer rally has been typical so don't set it in stone. It's simply something to watch for. Either way, gold is headed higher. Don't listen to the bubble nonsense. Don't listen to the double-top nonsense, either. Gold is going higher. Period.
Silver is subject to some manipulation here, too. I'm getting the distinct impression that, like late June, The EE is trying to keep "deliverables" in September to a minimum. You may recall that the silver rally from 34 to 42 happened in July, once trading in the "delivery month" July contract was off the board. It feels the same way here. Do not be surprised to see the Forces of Evil attempt to keep a lid on price through late next week. They need to have as few stand for delivery in September as possible. With this in mind, two things:
1) I sold my Sep calls at a small loss today. They expire next Thursday and they were far enough out of the money that I didn't want to jack with them any longer.
2) Clearing the Sunday 8/7 evening highs of 40.40 will send silver immediately back toward 42. I would imagine that The Wicked Witch would like to avoid this at all costs so she will send the monkeys to defend 40.40 with significant amounts of unbacked paper. Look for a potential pullback all the way to 39.50 or even 39. From there, I'll be an aggressive buyer. We'll see. Ole Turd can't be right all of the time...just most of the time.
That's all for now. Turd's got a busy night ahead of him so I might not check in again until tomorrow morning. Until then, keep the faith and enjoy the ride. TF
p.s. I'm still looking for a mailing address for "Two Gun Tobin". Tobe, I need to send you your hat! Email me with the info. Thanks!