An Interesting Day Awaits

Tue, Aug 16, 2011 - 9:13am

Well, what an interesting day we have ahead of us. The markets are once again in "risk off" mode as the S&P and commodities are down while gold is up. We've also got this Merkel/Sarkozy luncheon date taking place. Don't stray too far from your computer today as the action will be significant.

Here are some updated charts for you. I've moved the scale to two hours so that we can see the pop and rise off of the downgrade reaction last weekend. Both metals are in a very interesting position this morning. Gold looks primed to challenge the 1800 level again but it first needs to close above 1775. Silver is once again driving everyone crazy. Is it a commodity (down) or is it money (up)? I know what you and I think but that doesn't really matter at this point. If silver is going to move higher in the short term, it must break through and close above $40 first. It then must break through and close above the 8/7 evening highs of 40.40.


A couple of other things. Lots and lots of ridiculous talk these days about gold being in a "bubble". I think I refuted that pretty well back on Sunday but here are a couple of other items for your consideration. First, a guy named Brent sent me this 10-minute presentation that he's crafted for his firm. I don't know who "Baker Ave Asset Mgmt" is and I certainly don't have any connection to them. However, this presentation is pretty well done and all they ask for is your first name when you sign up to play it. Pay particular attention to the final 4 minutes or so where Brent shows the value of gold versus the U.S. money supply. It's pretty compelling stuff.

Along the same lines, ZH posted this morning the latest missive from one of my favorite "analysts", Egon von Greyerz. This guy really gets it. He writes very well and, unlike the author of the article I posted yesterday, he does it in an easy-to-understand manner. I highly recommend you take the time to read this.

That's all for now. I've got lasts of 1780 and 39.65. Let's go get em! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


jrobb316 · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:18am



Shill · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:24am
brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:26am

and at the bell...

and at the bell the EE lands a haymaker to Silver.

down goes silver.

it struggles to its feet and gets the standing eight count.

luckily its early in the bout and silver still has it's legs underneath.

now circling and jabbing... staying clear of another roundhouse...

Shill · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:31am

Look at them pound miners in

Look at them pound miners in the futures as well. This has become all to predictable.

Great theater for sure, I look at it as a desperate man at the end of his rope.

Check it out

sevin · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:31am

Thanks TF! I posted this last

Thanks TF! I posted this last night, but it was caught at the end of a page and not many saw it. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. My grandma recently received a decent amount of money from my great grandmother when she passed away recently. She gets her social security check and annuity of $500 a month. This mostly covers her expenses except for taking me to eat on occasion. What do I say to convince her to get gold and silver as the older generation seems harder to convince to get PM's?? What percentage should she put into Au/Ag if I can convince her to? Idk if i can convince her to go "all-in" I highly doubt, but would love for her to do so. High dividend paying stocks maybe?? Any advice would be very much appreciated. This community is an awesome one and I have learned so much.

Eric Original · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:31am

Don't really want an interesting day

Busy on the home front today. Going to be go go go all day starting shortly. Would really prefer a quiet day in the markets instead. Probably ain't going to happen...

silvergoldsilver · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:34am


sustained thus far

SilverTree · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:34am

One Ring

"One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them."


brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:39am

and silver fights back near

and silver fights back near the end of the first round.

bobbing, weaving and counter-punching, silver takes advantage of the EE's arm weariness to score some points before the bell.

or is the EE just reserving strength for the next onslaught?

it's shaping up to be a great bout, but the old champion EE won't be going down easily. 

silver will need to continue to press forward in order to go from contender to champion. And it won't want the decision going to the judges - rumors are they are in the EE's pocket.

off the stools for round two...

cpnscarlet · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:41am

Ron Paul - SOOO Conflicted

We all know that Ron Paul has alot (not everything) of what this country needs right now. And we're all mighty PO'd by the way the press ignores him (beng mistreated would be a step up!), but I still can't stop thinking about his other campaigns. His supporters were always energetic and on-the-spot in those straw polls and caucuses. BUT...when push came to shove and the primaries got rolling, where were the votes?

I'm not optimistic about the future simply because I remember that those of us on forums like this feel all nice and warm and "powerful" when we chat, but we are such a small group relative to the size of the unwashed ignoramuses that pass for average America. I'm ready to put up some Ron Paul signs and vote for him if he's on a ballot, but I'm really wondering about keeping my powder dry for the next (far from) best thing. Unfortunately, since Cain looks like he can't draw flies to syrup, I don't know if that candidate exists.

¤ · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:43am

Thanks TF

Interesting days ahead for sure.

I think some of the biggest decisions effecting all of mankind in the short term are being discussed now and a schedule for making "the" announcement about currency rebalancing will happen with 2-3 months.

The central bank monetary policies are effecting everyone I think it's safe to say.

We haven't seen anything yet, but change is coming and a radical departure from the way things used to be seems likely and necessary.

cpnscarlet brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:45am

Silver Haymaker????

@brad_pitt... If that's what you call a haymaker, you have a very short memory. We've seen much worse in the past two weeks alone. This is a "normal" day.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother cpnscarlet · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:53am

both combatants have eased

both combatants have eased back a little and are now feeling each other out here in round two. each probably assessing their plans of attack from here... looking for the other to drop their guard.

while the challenger silver has the large crowd behind it urging it on, the EE still has Blythe Masters in it's corner, and she's been known to put cement in the gloves on occasion...

p.s. just go with it scarlett...

Jexy · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:56am

Gold as a European Standard

Worth a look Jim Rickards Video interview and G20. It is not conclusive but, it does raise some interesting points.

¤ · Aug 16, 2011 - 9:57am

No SLW craziness this a.m..... report in the call options that i watch.'s a bit stunning to see the miners get hammered and the options etc. get tamped right down and decay backwards.

The market seems to be changing almost on a daily/weekly basis in the way things are reacting lately. It concerns me.

I've said it before on here in a long version, but it seems if TPTB want to control commodities (gold/oil etc.) and the broader markets that they would make investing in the markets so lopsided and illogical that most individual investors will just stay out of them.

That would seem to play right into TPTB hands. Eventually, they then would be able to amass physical commodities of all types (land,water also) and control the valuation of them if they controlled the markets also.

It seems like that's where we are headed as they are tampering with the price of everything on a daily basis or so it appears.

Doesn't this seem to be underway right now?

Maybe that seems far-fetched, but if your them you need to control the very things that seem to be so important that they are willing to do whatever it takes to effect the commodities and equity prices everyday in a huge mutli-billion dollar way......everyday. I think it's already happening.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:06am

and silver comes storming back!

uppercut to the jaw!

EE backpeddling to begin round three!

¤ · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:10am

brad pitt bett

Love the boxing call aspect of it.

Rolling with the punches everyday is what we do and see.

The EE vs. Me (and all of you)

margaritatime · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:10am


Seems as if Ag is just hanging in there. Looking at the volumes I can almost imagine all the dips being bought out, slowly and predictably - but not enough flow to really boost the price. The longer it stays at this line the more consolidation that it is building. I wonder how many are taking gold profits and turning them to silver? Seems to be the curve right now. IMO silver is becoming the big white elephant in the room.

Edit: p.s. I am seeing a possibility of 40 today.

Josephj36 · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:12am
Jexy · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:14am

CFTC, Do they have the resources needed to fightback for us?

Worth a look. Learned something new about the funding issue.

If you were told there is enough gold in the rocks for your lifetime and it could be seen with X-rays but, you kept from the tools to extract it; of what value is it to you or others that are also kept from the extraction tools?

CFTC Commissioner: "A Hair Trigger Away from Economic Calamity"
Food, Speculation and Parasitical Trading
margaritatime · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:14am


Just caught a bid at 40

Shill · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:16am

Gold, Silver and miners

Gold, Silver and miners catching some nice early action.

Looks good so far.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:16am

Huge round three in the books

Huge round three in the books for the challenger! EE looked slow, plodding, and old in this round. Silver scored many straight jabs and a few crosses, hoping for death by a thousand cuts.

Up off their stools for round four and WHAMMO! EE is reeling back!

The crowd is on its feet!

p.s. TY DPH. something different

Tesla · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:16am
Monedas · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:17am

Let me save you some time, Turd !

Hoarders have more fun ! Monedas 2011 Learn it, live it, love it !

jimijon · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:17am

When to sell Gold.

Ok -

Here is my thinking..

1) When the banks present honest balance sheets.

2) After Dec 21, 2012. Then I will look to move it to real estate.

So, I won't be till the end of 2012 I am afraid, or happy.

- j- (add a business that accepts barter!)

cpnscarlet · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:18am

I'll Try to Chill

@brad_pitt - Sorry...always ready to be too serious.

Tom L · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:19am

Serious Algo Work

in the XAU at 212.4. Same level as yesterday. They have to break through that or the shares are going nowhere today. 580 on the HUI.

C'mon you bastiches... get out the way. Daddy needs a new barn!


margaritatime · Aug 16, 2011 - 10:20am


Anyone here playing it?

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