Gonna Need More Hats

Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - 3:06pm

This week's contest has officially ended and, once again, we have two winners! Out of 300+ entries, we actually had two Turdites pick the same number and they both were only off by 10 cents. The winners are....

"GDH" and "Two Gun Tobin"

Congratulations! When you have a moment, please send me an email with your mailing address and your authentic, Turd Ferguson autographed yellow foam hat will be put in the mail. (Provided I can get it mailed before the USPS declares bankruptcy.) Both predicted $1742.50 and the official Comex close for the Dec11 contract was $1742.60. Wow!

As expected and predicted here late yesterday, gold right down to support this morning, near 1725. The actual low came at about 10:45 EDT at 1725.80. Not too shabby. At about that point, a lot of folks seemed to realize they'd rather be long, not short, gold over the weekend. It has since rebounded about $20 and I have a Globex last of 1745. The only thing we didn't get today was a commensurate drop in silver, which is just fine with me. I thought it could briefly fall below 38 but it never did, having only made it to 38.22. It is now back up above $39 as I type and is ready for a very important and pivotal Monday and Tuesday. See below.

I'll spend some time this weekend going over what I expect to happen next week. For now, here are some charts to peruse as you wrap up your Friday. Try to draw your own conclusions and see if they jibe with the predictions I'll give you later tonight or tomorrow.

I have an opportunity tonight to be on a conference call/discussion tonight with Clif High. I don't know how many questions I'll be able to ask but, if you have anything you'd like me to mention or ask, please list it in the comments below. Have a great Friday. Go relax and have fun. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 12, 2011 - 3:08pm



Aug 12, 2011 - 3:10pm

@ TF

Thanks for the great work, have a good weekend!

Aug 12, 2011 - 3:11pm
Aug 12, 2011 - 3:18pm

"GDH" and "Two Gun Tobin"

Lucky Bastards :) great calls, lets see those Yellow hat pic's!

Turd, would love to watch a live feed of that Q&A that would be entertaining between drinks :)

My question: Please ask him about the mining sector and does he feel a breakout is coming.

Thank you

Aug 12, 2011 - 3:18pm
Aug 12, 2011 - 3:18pm

I Want a Hat

Turd, where do you get these hats from? hope to win one sometime so I can put it in my safe with my PM

Aug 12, 2011 - 3:20pm

Good job

Congrats to the winners!

Aug 12, 2011 - 3:23pm

re: Clif High

Congrats on the Clif High gig! Will you post the interview (like you did for your previous interview)?

Is Aug 26th(the Bernank's moose knuckle meeting in Jackson Hole) a "tipping point"?

Aug 12, 2011 - 3:25pm

So Near And Yet.....

Was only $3.40 off. Oh well congrats to the winners!! Silver going up today has eased some of the pain of not winning the hat!!

Aug 12, 2011 - 3:30pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

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